Surface Warming Research Articles

Climatic Effects of Ocean Salinity on M Dwarf Exoplanets

Ocean salinity is known to dramatically affect the climates of Earth-like planets orbiting Sun-like stars, with high salinity leading to less ice and higher surface temperature. However, how ocean composition impacts climate under different conditions, such as around different types of stars or at different positions within the habitable zone, has not been investigated. We used ROCKE-3D, an ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, to simulate how planetary climate responds to ocean salinities for planets with G-star versus M dwarf hosts at several stellar fluxes. We find that increasing ocean salinity from 20 to 100 g kg−1 in our model results in nonlinear ice reduction and warming on G-star planets, sometimes causing abrupt transitions to different climate states. Conversely, sea ice on M dwarf planets responds more gradually and linearly to increasing salinity. Moreover, reductions in sea ice on M dwarf planets are not accompanied by significant surface warming as on G-star planets. High salinity can modestly bolster the resilience of M dwarf planets against snowball glaciation and allow these planets to retain surface liquid water further from their host star, but the effects are muted compared to G-star planets that experience snowball bifurcation and climate hysteresis due to the ice-albedo feedback.

Responses of Lower-Stratospheric Water Vapor to Regional Sea Surface Temperature Changes

Abstract The variability of stratospheric water vapor (SWV) plays a crucial role in stratospheric chemistry and Earth’s energy budget, strongly influenced by sea surface temperature (SST). In this study, we systematically investigate the response of lower-SWV (LSWV) to regional sea surface temperature changes using idealized SST patch experiments within a climate model. The results indicate that LSWV is most sensitive to tropical sea surface temperature, with the strongest response occurring in late autumn and early winter. Warming of the tropical Indian Ocean and western Pacific (WP) leads to stratospheric drying, while warming of the tropical Atlantic (TA) and eastern Pacific results in stratospheric moistening. The drying impact on LSWV due to warming in the western Pacific Ocean exceeds the wet effect in the eastern Pacific Ocean by approximately 60%. The variations in tropical SST influence LSWV by modulating the temperature at the tropical tropopause layer, especially over the Indo-Pacific warm pool through Matsuno–Gill responses. Furthermore, the response of LSWV to tropical SST changes exhibits nonnegligible nonlinearity, which indicates the importance of nonlinearity in determining the LSWV response to global surface warming. Significance Statement In this study, we explore how changes in the temperature of the ocean’s surface can affect the amount of water vapor in the stratosphere, a layer of Earth’s atmosphere. Understanding this relationship is important because water vapor in the stratosphere can influence both our climate and the chemistry of the atmosphere. Using a climate model, we found that water vapor in the lower stratosphere is especially responsive to temperature changes in tropical ocean regions. Specifically, when the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific get warmer, the stratosphere tends to get drier. On the other hand, warming in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific leads to more moisture in the stratosphere. The way these changes add up is complex and not simply a sum of individual parts, especially in tropical warm pool regions. Our findings have implications for how we understand and predict the impacts of climate change on stratospheric water vapor.

Summer marine heatwaves in the tropical Indian Ocean associated with an unseasonable positive Indian Ocean Dipole event 2012

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are anomalously warm events that profoundly affect climate change and local ecosystem. During the summer of 2012 (June–September), intense MHWs occurred in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) concurrently with an unseasonable positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) event. The MHW metrics (duration, frequency, cumulative intensity and maximum intensity) were characterized by northwestward–slanted patterns from west Australia to the Somalia coast. The analysis confirmed that these MHWs were closely associated with the unseasonable pIOD 2012. The weakening of Western North Pacific Subtropical High and strengthening of Australian High in spring induced an interhemispheric pressure gradient that drove two anticyclonic circulation patterns over the eastern TIO. The first anticyclonic circulation featured cross–equatorial wind anomalies from south of Java to the South China Sea/Philippine Sea, which led to strong upwelling off Sumatra–Java during the subsequent summer. The second anticyclonic circulation excited downwelling Rossby waves that propagated from the southeastern TIO to the western TIO. Thus, downwelling in the western pole and upwelling in the eastern pole led to a strong pIOD event peaking in summer, namely, the unseasonable pIOD 2012. These downwelling Rossby waves deepened the thermocline by more than 60 m and caused anomalous surface warming, thereby contributing to the occurrences of MHWs. With the development and peak of the unseasonable pIOD 2012, anomalous atmospheric circulation transported moisture from the TIO to the subtropical Western North Pacific (WNP), favoring a strong cyclonic anomaly that profoundly affected the summer monsoon rainfall over the subtropical WNP. This study provides some perspectives on the role of pIOD events in summer climate over the Indo–Northwest Pacific region.

Conservation Consequences of Corallivore Gastropod Predation on Plexaurella grandiflora (Cnidaria: Octocorallia) Populations in Tropical Reefs

Octocorals are extremely important animals for forming coral reefs and maintaining life in the marine environment and are widely distributed. The focus species Plexaurella grandiflora is an endemic species from Brazil. It is subject to the most varied external stressors, from ocean surface warming, pollution, damage caused by tourism, and predation by other animals. In this sense, the present study aimed to survey the population characteristics of P. grandiflora in a shallow tropical reef where it occurs in the Northeast of Brazil. Furthermore, we evaluated the stress and damage caused by coral-eating gastropods of the Muricidae family, found associated with colony structure. Through free dives between the years 2016 and 2017, 143 colonies of P. grandiflora were marked and observed, and they were analyzed in their size, supporting substrate, distribution, presence of damage, and impact by coral-eating gastropods. The cataloged colonies were larger than those recognized in the literature and were distributed in aggregate. A total of 85 gastropods of two species (Coralliophila aberrans and Coralliophila salebrosa) were recorded preying on gorgonians. The damage ranged from light to deep, from polyp removal to exposure of the protein axis. Predation occurred predominantly at the base of the colonies. As it is an endemic species and in need of studies, this study warns of the need for studies focused on the ecology and conservation of this gorgonian and its critical habitats.

Biogenic opal δ18O in marine deep-sea sediments through the Cenozoic Era and implications for ocean cooling

Benthic foraminifera δ18O increased by 5.4 ‰ through the Cenozoic Era, the past 65 million years of Earth's history. This increase is attributed to growth of global ice sheets and global ocean cooling. On the other hand, δ18O measurements of planktonic foraminifera do not exhibit significant change. These measurements initially were interpreted to suggest cool tropical and subtropical temperatures and introduced the concept of the “cool tropics paradox”, in which global bottomwater temperatures were significantly warmer but tropical surface temperatures were not during the early Cenozoic. This lack of change in δ18O of planktonic foraminifera was explained by secondary postburial alteration of the primary planktonic isotope signal.We provide an alternative record of sea surface water characteristics of Cenozoic Era by measuring δ18O of siliceous microfossils. This scarce phase of marine silica, unaltered biogenic opal-A, composed of diatoms, radiolaria and sponge spicules, was separated and purified from deep-sea Cenozoic sediments. We measured δ18O of siliceous microfossils from a set of drilled cores: DSDP 278 from the South Pacific, DSDP 513 from the South Atlantic, and ODP 1050–1053 and DSDP 391 from the subtropical North Atlantic. The purity of the biogenic opal and its mineralogical phase was assessed with SEM, SEM/EDS, XPS, and XRD.The δ18O of biogenic opal-A fluctuates around an average value of 43.0 ‰ through the Cenozoic Era, comparable to the Southern Ocean average of 43.2 ‰ of diatoms and radiolaria from the last 30,000 years which represent the last glacial and interglacial period and suggesting cold surface temperatures of 2–7 °C, both in the subtropical and polar latitudes. Taking into consideration changes in δ18O associated with bottomwater interaction with the lower crust and changes in sea level associated with waxing and waning of ice sheets, we conclude lack of or minimal change in the surface water temperature through the Cenozoic Era. This revives the original idea of the “cool tropics” paradox with a carbonate independent δ18O record and without issues associated with diagenesis of benthic and planktonic foraminifera.

Summer Westerly Wind Intensification Weakens Southern Ocean Seasonal Cycle Under Global Warming

AbstractSince the 1950s, observations and climate models show an amplification of sea surface temperature (SST) seasonal cycle in response to global warming over most of the global oceans except for the Southern Ocean (SO), however the cause remains poorly understood. In this study, we analyzed observations, ocean reanalysis, and a set of historical and abruptly quadrupled CO2 simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 archive and found that the weakened SST seasonal cycle over the SO could be mainly attributed to the intensification of summertime westerly winds. Under the historical warming, the intensification of summertime westerly winds over the SO effectively deepens ocean mixed layer and damps surface warming, but this effect is considerably weaker in winter, thus weakening the SST seasonal cycle. This wind‐driven mechanism is further supported by our targeted coupled model experiments with the wind intensification effects being removed.

Impact of greenery and waterbody on the cooling of city’s environment: a case of Rajshahi City

ABSTRACT Both plants and bodies of water are crucial to the health of the urban landscape. The degree to which these factors contribute to cooling appears, however, to change depending on factors such as location, time of year, and the mix of land use and land cover. The purpose of this study was to investigate the potential role of trees and water in Rajshahi City Corporation in reducing urban heat island effect. As a first step, satellite images are processed to generate the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and the modified normalized difference water index (MNDWI). The second step is to produce maps of vegetation and water features by using a decision tree (DT) algorithm fed with threshold values from the indices. After that, thermal bands from the Landsat 8 OLI and MODIS Terra Earth observation data are used to create a map of the land surface temperature (LST). Finally, this study assessed the effect of vegetation and water coverage on global surface temperatures by analyzing their spatial distributions. Different kinds of land cover can be found in and around urban centers. Therefore, this study chose two types of water bodies (big and small) and two types of vegetation (sparse and attached/compact) for experiment. Water bodies produce cooler temperatures than other land cover types, as shown by the data. It has been found, however, that cooling rates differ across large and small bodies of water. The surface temperatures of large bodies of water are typically lower than those of smaller bodies of water. Accordingly, it appears that expansive areas significantly impact the cooling of metropolitan environments. The findings also demonstrate a difference in surface temperature between areas of dense and sparse vegetation. The cooling impact of the sparse vegetation is much less than that of the dense and widespread vegetation. There was a significant relationship between surface warming and vegetation cover in this study (R2 = 0.81). Contrarily, the presence of water and vegetation is strongly correlated (R2 = 0.88) with surface warming. The findings also show that surface warming differs depending on land use. According to a study of four typical RCC locations, business districts and industrial zones have a far greater impact on local surface temperatures than do residential developments. The experiment demonstrates that the residential area with a high proportion of vegetation had a lower average temperature by nearly 2°C. The study’s findings highlight the value of maintaining urban parks and water features.

Role of strong subsurface mode on the anomalous basin-wide surface warming of the Tropical Indian Ocean in 2019–2020

Role of strong subsurface mode on the anomalous basin-wide surface warming of the Tropical Indian Ocean in 2019–2020

Eccentric orbits may enhance the habitability of Earth-like exoplanets

ABSTRACT The detection and characterization of Earth-like planets around Sun-like stars is an important goal of exoplanetary research, given their promise for hosting potentially habitable conditions. Key orbital parameters, such as eccentricity, can influence a planet’s climate response and, as a consequence, affect its potential habitability. Utilizing the Earth System Model – the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6), we simulated Earth-like exoplanets with two different orbital parameters: one circular ($e = 0$) and another highly eccentric ($e = 0.4$), both with zero obliquity but fixing the annual mean insolation. The highly eccentric case exhibits a 1.9 K warmer surface temperature due to lower surface and cloud albedo and a weaker longwave cloud forcing. Exploring the annual global mean climate difference, we analysed latitudinal and seasonal variations in hydrological cycle variables, such as sea ice, land snow, and clouds. Land habitability metrics based on temperature and precipitation reveal that the $e=0.4$ case has over 25 per cent more habitable land area for more than 80 per cent of its orbit, compared with the $e=0$ case. Additionally, the global circulation pattern shifts from a three-cell to a two-cell system in the $e=0.4$ case, expanding the Hadley cell to higher latitudes, enhancing meridional latent heat transport, and improving land habitability at higher latitudes. Our study suggests that Earth-like exoplanets with high eccentricity orbiting Sun-like stars may have greater land habitability than their circular counterparts, due to seasonally warmer surface temperatures and more evenly distributed precipitation over land.

Shifts from surface density compensation to projected warming, freshening and stronger stratification in the subpolar North Atlantic

The hydrography and stratification of the subpolar North Atlantic is highly variable, with convection activating and deactivating across parts of the Labrador and Irminger seas. Likely consequential for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), this variability is examined in an eddy-rich ocean model hindcast spanning 1958–2021 and in 1950–2050 simulations with four climate models, spanning differences in ocean resolution (eddy-rich or eddy-permitting), code and implementation. Stratification of the Labrador and Irminger seas is quantified with the Potential Energy Anomaly (PEA) in the upper 1000 m of the water column. Monthly PEA anomalies are evaluated alongside corresponding anomalies of sea surface temperature, salinity, and density. For 30-year windows, moving correlations between PEA and surface properties are obtained over the 100-year simulations to characterize the evolving relationships. As climate change progresses, stratification in three of the four models is increasingly associated with variable surface salinity, in both regions. Lagrangian analyses of surface flow pathways in the decades preceding 1990 and 2040 are undertaken for one of the models in which surface salinity grows in influence. The subpolar presence of low-salinity Arctic waters and high-salinity subtropical Atlantic waters are found to increase and decrease respectively by 2040. Furthermore, in three of the four models, surface density compensation associated with correlation of surface temperature and salinity anomalies is progressively replaced by combined surface warming and freshening, lowering surface density, and strengthening stratification. The extent of these model-dependent changes and processes are of consequence for the projected fate of the AMOC by the mid twenty-first century.

Sensitivity of Easterly QBO’s Boreal Winter Teleconnections and Surface Impacts to SSWs

Abstract The quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is thought to influence boreal winter surface conditions over Asia and around the North Atlantic. Confirming if these responses are robust is complicated by the QBO having multiple pathways to influence surface conditions as well as internal variability. The reanalysis record suggests that sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), breakdowns of the polar vortex that can elicit persistent surface impacts, are more frequent during easterly QBO (EQBO). Hence, this modulated frequency of SSWs may account for some of the EQBO surface responses. However, many climate models do not reproduce this QBO–SSW relationship, perhaps because it is noise or because the model QBOs are deficient. We circumvent these issues by using an ensemble of fixed boundary condition branched simulations in which a realistic EQBO is prescribed in control simulations previously devoid of a QBO, allowing us to isolate the transient atmospheric response to EQBO. Imposing EQBO accelerates the tropical upper-tropospheric wind, shifts the subtropical jet poleward, and attenuates the polar vortex. Interestingly, the latter is not entirely dependent on the statistically significant increase in SSW frequency due to EQBO. Corroborating observations, EQBO is associated with warmer surface temperatures over Asia and negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) conditions. We then subsample the branched/control simulations based on which EQBO members have SSWs. The negative NAO response is primarily associated with more frequent SSWs, while the Asia warming develops irrespective of SSWs. These results have implications for wintertime predictability and clarify the pairing of particular QBO teleconnections with certain surface impacts. Significance Statement The QBO is one of the few parts of the Earth system that is predictable months in advance and that also elicits global effects on surface temperature, circulation, and precipitation. Unfortunately, climate models and operational forecast systems do not simulate the QBO well and it is not always clear how robust the global impacts of the QBO are. Here, we impose the QBO in idealized model simulations, which modulates wintertime surface temperature and precipitation over Asia, the North Atlantic, Europe, and Africa in a manner consistent with observations. This work substantiates the importance of climate and forecast models properly simulating the QBO.

A Potential Surface Warming Regime for Volcanic Super‐Eruptions Through Stratospheric Water Vapor Increases

AbstractLarge volcanic eruptions are known to influence the climate through a variety of mechanisms including aerosol‐forced cooling and warming via emitted CO2. The January 2022 Hunga shallow underwater eruption caused an increase in stratospheric water vapor, and demonstrated how the associated positive radiative forcing can be an important component of an eruption's climate forcing. We present interactive stratospheric aerosol model simulations of super‐volcanic eruptions with a range of SO2 emissions that can produce climate warming through feedback effects produced by a large igneous province (or “flood basalt”) mid‐latitude super‐eruption using Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry Climate Model climate model simulations. The model experiments suggest total SO2 emissions ≳4,000 Tg/4 Gt generate a multi‐year period of sustained aerosol absorptive local‐heating of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere and hence produce net climate warming after strong initial cooling. The eruptions produce stratospheric water vapor increases of factors of 8–600. The initiation of these feedbacks within the simulations suggest they could occur for individual stratovolcano eruptions of the scale of the Toba or Tambora eruptions. We note the sensitivity of our results to volcanic sulfate aerosol microphysics and model chemistry.

Southwest Pacific Ocean Warming Driven by Circulation Changes

AbstractAn area of ocean centered on 179°E, 46°S has warmed to full depth since 2006, with surface warming around 5 times the global rate. This Subtropical Front area is associated with a confluence of warm, salty, subtropical water from the north carried in a western boundary current and cold, fresh, subantarctic water from the south carried in the northernmost branch of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Temperature and salinity changes observed from Argo floats indicate that the Subtropical Frontal Zone has moved west ∼120 km, creating this area of strong warming analogous to changes in extension regions of other western boundary currents. The warming is a result of changes in the local flows of subantarctic water, evident in satellite altimeter data and 1,000 m Argo trajectories, which in turn likely result from changes in meridional ocean heat content and winds. The warming has placed this biologically‐significant region in almost perpetual marine heatwave conditions.

Observational evidence of changing cloud macro-physical properties under warming climate over the Indian summer monsoon region

The cloud responses to global warming are captured in various global climate models with distinct inferences on changes in cloud vertical structure as function of surface warming. However, long term observational evidences are scarce to validate the model outputs. Here, we have studied the changes in radiosonde derived cloud macro-physical properties and their association with other atmospheric variables during the period 2000–2019 in response to warming climate over the Indian summer monsoon region. We have observed a statistically significant increase in the frequency of cloudy days (∼13 % decade−1), high-level clouds (HLCs ∼11 % decade−1) and simultaneous decrease in low-level clouds (LLCs ∼8 % decade−1) over the Indian region during the monsoon season. The multiple linear regression, principle component analyses and further correlation analyses suggest significant associations between cloud vertical structure variations and large-scale climate indicators, such as global warming and El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The vertical extension of the tropospheric column and the upward shift of clouds, attributed to global warming, explain the changes observed in both HLCs and LLCs. These results contribute to a deeper understanding of the dynamic interplay between global climate change and regional cloud dynamics, with implications for weather and climate modeling.

Changes in Compound Hot Extremes over the Mid–High Latitudes of Asia and the Underlying Mechanisms

Abstract This study investigates the spatiotemporal variations of the summer frequency of daytime–nighttime compound extreme high-temperature events (FCEHEs) in the mid–high latitudes of Asia (MHA) from 1979 to 2014. Results show that FCEHE has shown an upward trend with fluctuations, especially in Mongolia–Baikal. The descending anomaly caused by the anomalous high pressure over Mongolia–Baikal results in reduced cloud cover, which increases solar radiation reaching the ground, favoring the higher FCEHE. This process is consistent during the daytime and nighttime periods, with relatively limited nighttime solar radiation, potentially compensated by the increased downward longwave radiation to sustain the extreme high temperatures. This benefit process is closely connected with two main factors: the increased sea ice in the Barents Sea during spring and the anomalously warm sea surface temperature (SST) in the Northwest Pacific during summer. The increased sea ice can affect the Eurasia (EU) teleconnection, while the warm SST affects the Pacific-Japan/East Asia–Pacific pattern (PJ/EAP). Subsequently, these factors further modulate the circulation anomalies and then FCEHE. Significance Statement This study provides valuable insights into the spatiotemporal variations and the possible underlying mechanisms for change in the frequency of daytime–nighttime compound extreme high-temperature events (FCEHEs) in the mid–high latitudes of Asia. The spring sea ice anomalies over the Barents Sea and summer sea surface temperature anomalies in the Northwest Pacific affect the local anticyclonic circulation in Mongolia–Baikal through Eurasia (EU) and Pacific-Japan/East Asia–Pacific (PJ/EAP) patterns, respectively. The resulting descending anomaly and reduced cloud cover contribute to interannual variations of FCEHE, which is highly similar during the daytime and nighttime periods. During the nighttime, when the solar radiation is relatively limited, the increased downward longwave radiation may compensate to sustain extreme high temperatures.

Climate-driven deoxygenation of northern lakes

Oxygen depletion constitutes a major threat to lake ecosystems and the services they provide. Most of the world’s lakes are located >45° N, where accelerated climate warming and elevated carbon loads might severely increase the risk of hypoxia, but this has not been systematically examined. Here analysis of 2.6 million water quality observations from 8,288 lakes shows that between 1960 and 2022, most northern lakes experienced rapid deoxygenation strongly linked to climate-driven prolongation of summer stratification. Oxygen levels deteriorated most in small lakes (<10 ha) owing to their greater volumetric oxygen demand and surface warming rates, while the largest lakes gained oxygen under minimal stratification changes and improved aeration at spring overturns. Seasonal oxygen consumption rates declined, despite widespread browning. Proliferating anoxia enhanced seasonal internal loading of C, P and N but depleted P long-term, indicating that deoxygenation can exhaust redox-sensitive fractions of sediment nutrient reservoirs.

Emerging Hotspots of Surface Chlorophyll Trend in the Tropical Oceans

AbstractRecent studies show that climate change signals in the long‐term trend of the tropical ecosystems have emerged earlier than projected by climate models. However, it remains unclear whether tropical ocean surface chlorophyll (SChl) shows a robust trend in the available satellite data era, and what possible physical mechanisms can be responsible for this trend. Here, using combined data from observations, hindcast biogeochemical simulations, and climate model outputs, we document consistently decreasing trends of SChl in the three ocean basins (Indian Ocean, Pacific Ocean, and Atlantic Ocean) with varying magnitude from −1.6% to −10.0% per decade during 1998–2020, with tropical ocean SChl showing a decreasing trend of −7.1% per decade. In the Indo‐Pacific Ocean, mechanisms for the two hotspots with significantly decreasing SChl trends are identified. (a) In the northern tropical Pacific, under the anthropogenic forcing, enhanced stratification associated with frequent interannual surface warming overwhelms the Ekman pumping effect due to positive wind stress curl, leading to a decrease in SChl. (b) In the southern tropical Indian Ocean, the downwelling process dominates the decreasing SChl trend due to the Ekman pumping associated with the negative wind stress curl prevailing in the Indian Ocean, while the contribution from the stratification change is negligible. This study identifies two hotspots with consistently decreasing SChl trends in the tropical ocean which are influenced by the complex physical processes under a warmer climate and calls for more comprehensive understanding of the interactions between physical processes and biogeochemical cycles in the tropical ocean ecosystems.

Southern Hemisphere Circumpolar Wavenumber‐4 Pattern Simulated in SINTEX‐F2 Coupled Model

AbstractInterannual sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the subtropical‐midlatitude Southern Hemisphere are often associated with a circumpolar wavenumber‐4 (W4) pattern. This study is the first attempt to successfully simulate the SST‐W4 pattern using a state‐of‐the‐art coupled model called SINTEX‐F2 and clarify the underlying physical processes. It is found that the SST variability in the southwestern subtropical Pacific (SWSP) plays a key role in triggering atmospheric variability and generating the SST‐W4 pattern during austral summer (December‐February). In contrast, the tropical SST variability has a very limited effect. The anomalous convection and associated divergence over the SWSP induce atmospheric Rossby waves confined in the westerly jet. Then, the synoptic disturbances circumnavigate the subtropical Southern Hemisphere, establishing an atmospheric W4 pattern. The atmospheric W4 pattern has an equivalent barotropic structure in the troposphere, and it interacts with the upper ocean, causing variations in mixed layer depth due to latent heat flux (LHF) anomalies. As incoming climatological solar radiation goes into a thinner (thicker) mixed layer, the shallower (deeper) mixed layer promotes surface warming (cooling). This leads to positive (negative) SST anomalies, developing the SST‐W4 pattern during austral summer. Subsequently, anomalous entrainment due to the temperature difference between the mixed layer and the water below the mixed layer, anomalous LHF, and disappearance of the overlying atmospheric W4 pattern cause the decay of the SST‐W4 pattern during austral autumn. These results indicate that accurate simulation of the atmospheric forcing and the associated atmosphere‐ocean interaction is essential to capture the SST‐W4 pattern in coupled models.

Decrease in MJO Predictability Following Indo–Pacific Warm Pool Expansion

AbstractThe characteristics of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) have changed and are projected to continue changing with the expansion of the Indo–Pacific warm pool, which is the Earth's largest region of warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs). However, the likelihood of a change in MJO predictability following warm pool expansion remains unaddressed. Therefore, this study investigated the effect of warm pool expansion on MJO variability and predictability using the highly idealized aquaplanet configuration of Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2). By expanding the warm pool in the Indo–Pacific, MJO‐like waves become more regionally confined, short‐lived convective events with weaker magnitude and less robust eastward propagating signals, possibly due to stronger zonal SST gradients and wider meridional widths of the warm pool. Perfect‐model ensemble forecast experiments revealed that the MJO predictability decreased by approximately 5 days, the forecast error proliferated, and the signal rapidly reduced following warm pool expansion.

Diurnally asymmetric cloud cover trends amplify greenhouse warming.

Surface air temperature (SAT) is a key indicator of climate change. Variations in cloud cover affect SAT by interacting with radiation. During daytime, clouds tend to cool the surface by blocking sunlight, while nighttime clouds warm the surface by trapping longwave radiation. Here, we show that, on the global scale, cloud cover, particularly low-level cloudiness, exhibits diurnally asymmetric trends in a warming climate. Cloud fraction on average decreases more during the day than at night. Climate models indicate that the diurnally asymmetric cloud cover variation is mainly driven by trends in the lower tropospheric stability and is largely attributed to the increasing greenhouse gases rather than natural variability. This asymmetry, therefore, turns out to be an amplifier of surface warming, by both decreasing the daytime cloud shortwave albedo effect and increasing the nighttime cloud longwave greenhouse effect.