Supply Shocks Research Articles

Inequality in economic shock exposures across the global firm-level supply network

For centuries, national economies have been engaging in international trade and production. The resulting international supply networks not only increase wealth for countries, but also allow for economic shocks to propagate across borders. Using global, firm-level supply network data, we estimate a country’s exposure to direct and indirect economic losses caused by the failure of a company in another country. We show the network of international systemic risk-flows. We find that rich countries expose poor countries stronger to systemic risk than vice-versa. The risk is highly concentrated, however, higher risk levels are not compensated with a risk premium in GDP levels, nor higher GDP growth. Our findings put the often praised benefits for developing countries from globalized production in a new light, by relating them to risks involved in the production processes. Exposure risks present a new dimension of global inequality that most affects the poor in supply shock crises.

On the effects of crude oil demand and supply shocks on Korea’s bilateral trade balance: are the effects asymmetry?

ABSTRACT The contribution of the present article is to find any indication of whether three components of oil shocks – oil supply shocks, aggregate demand shocks, and oil-specific demand shocks – asymmetrically influence the bilateral trade balance of Korea with its top 10 partners. We discover that there is evidence that the three oil shocks asymmetrically influence Korea’s trade balance with some of its top 10 partners in the short- and long run. Additionally, the asymmetric impact appears to be a country-specific phenomenon and varies depending on different shock components.

Unravelling the credit market shocks and investment dynamics: A theoretical and empirical perspective

This paper investigates the underlying credit market shocks that historically affected business investment in the Slovenian economy. In contrast to the existing literature, we explore more profound structural shocks beneath the credit demand and supply shocks. For the purpose of structural identification, we propose a theoretical model of the credit market that reveals the credit market imperfections on the side of credit supply as well as liquidity demand. The theoretical structure justifies our set of identifying restrictions, further evaluated with the structural Bayesian VAR model. Our results confirm the relevance of loan supply shocks for the business investment activity, suggesting the existence of credit market imperfections. Furthermore, business investment is strongly conditioned by liquidity demand shocks, which explain a significant part of the variation in investment activity. Even though loan supply shocks constrained the investment activity in Slovenia during the financial crisis, the results of our analysis suggest that banks predominantly reacted to the increasing financial risk as opposed to the changes in their profit functions. Based on the results, we may conclude that in the common monetary area, fiscal policy should implement country-specific measures to effectively address the business sector's expectations regarding the economy's medium- and long-term development.

Similarities yet Divergence in South Asian Macroeconomic Performance


 Stylized business cycle facts for South Asia are both similar and different from other regions. They show the dominance of supply shocks, often amplified by macroeconomic policies and procyclical current accounts. Interest and exchange rate volatility rose initially on liberalization, but fell as markets deepened. A gradual approach to openness and market development, with flexible exchange rates, that avoided complete liberalization, worked well initially. But a combination of excessive government/foreign borrowing and inadequate reserves made it difficult for smaller countries to withstand the multiple external shocks that began with the global pandemic. Domestic ability to smooth shocks and global safety nets are both essential. India benefitted from growing diversity, evolution to countercyclical macroeconomic policy better suited to structure and a good coordination of monetary and fiscal policies, with balance between demand stimulus and continuing supply-side reforms. Reserves and capital flow management policies helped insulate from global shocks. Intervention damped excess exchange rate volatility, reducing risk premiums.

The macroeconomic costs of the bank tax

In this paper, we investigate the real effects of special taxation on banks. We provide evidence that the introduction of a new fiscal levy on banks significantly impairs their performance and has an adverse impact on the real economy through the lending channel. Using micro-level data on lending relationships, we identify the credit supply shock related with a bank tax controlling for loan demand factors. We compute a firm-specific measure of firm exposure to burdened credit institutions. We find a negative impact of the tax shock on investment and output. Our results are important from a policy perspective as they shed light on the economic consequences of double taxation on banks.

AN EMPIRICAL TAKE ON THE “PLUCKING” MODEL

Traditional estimates of potential output based on the symmetric business cycle (boom–bust) view are prone to large retrospective revisions. The plucking view, which is supported by empirics, offers possible respite. Serious attempts to estimate the output ceiling in the plucking view, analogous to potential output in the traditional view, are scarce. This paper has three parts. The first estimates the output ceiling in a computationally simple approach. The second analyzes the relationship of the resultant output gap with inflation and with the unemployment rate. A comparison is made against output gap estimates based on prevailing methods. The third uses a vector autoregression (VAR) to analyze responses to supply and demand shocks. The paper finds that the plucking model offers three points of improvement over prevailing methods based on the boom–bust view. First, boom–bust estimates are prone to large retrospective revisions when two-sided filters are used, while the plucking estimates are not. Second, output gap estimates from both views do not correlate well with core inflation. This absence of evidence for a Phillips curve is problematic for the boom–bust view. The plucking estimates correlated well with the unemployment rate but the boom–bust estimates did not. Third, the output ceiling from the plucking model responded only to supply (oil price) shocks and not demand (interest rate) shocks, hence fits the description of a supply measure. This paper provides a template to estimate the output ceiling of the plucking model in other countries using publicly available macroeconomic data.

Tracing the International Transmission of a Crisis through Multinational Firms

ABSTRACTWe show that multinational firms transmit shocks across countries through their internal capital markets. We study a credit supply shock to parent firms in Germany. International affiliates outside Germany supported their parents through internal lending, became financially constrained themselves, and experienced lower real growth. We find that managers were “Darwinist” with respect to international affiliates but “Socialist” in the home country, that internal capital markets transmitted the credit shock more strongly than a nonfinancial shock, and that access to developed credit markets attenuated the real effects. The total real impact of shock transmission through multinationals on foreign economies was large.

The Dance of Two Instruments: How Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interact in Nigeria

This study examined the nature of the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies in Nigeria. It also investigates the channels through which impulses from fiscal and monetary policy interaction are transmitted to inflation, output and exchange rate. These were intended to provide information on the nature of interaction between fiscal and monetary policies in Nigeria. Quarterly secondary data covering the period between 1980Q1 and 2022Q1 were used in the study. Data on real gross domestic product, consumer price index, lending rate, real exchange rate and total government expenditure were sourced from international financial statistical (2022Q4 Edition) and Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Statistical Bulletin (2009 and 2022Q4 Issues). Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) econometric model was employed for the analysis of data. The results showed that interaction between fiscal and monetary policy in Nigeria is characterised by the way shock occurred. This indicated that the interaction between both policies showed a substitutive nature when the shocks resulted from aggregate demand and supply shocks, whereas the policies complemented each other when other macroeconomic shocks occur due to policy changes occurred. The study also revealed that investment and consumption are the channels through which impulses are transmitted into inflation, output and exchange rate. The study concluded that the nature of relationship between fiscal and monetary policy is dependent on shocks.

The impact of oil shocks on the stock market

This paper investigates the reaction of real stock returns and their volatility in the three main euro area economies (France, Germany and Italy), the U.K. and the U.S. to oil price changes caused by different shocks in the supply-side and demand-side of the global crude oil market, including the shock on the demand for oil inventories. Our findings suggest that the impact of oil supply and aggregate demand shocks on real stock returns and volatility are not altered when oil inventories are explicitly considered in the modeling of global crude oil market. However, the effects of oil-specific demand shocks on real stock returns are modified by the inclusion of oil inventories in the model, stressing the importance of the uncertainty channel in the link between the oil and stock markets. Finally, oil inventory shocks have a negative impact at medium time horizons on real stock returns, as the surge in the price of oil causes depletion of inventories.

Policy Formulation for an Optimal Level of Savings in a Dynamic Setting

Objective: Previous literature on optimal savings relies on specific utility and production technology functional forms which might not be able to produce robust results as different utility / production functions may lead to dramatically different or opposing results. This paper derives an optimal savings policy based on parameters (such as slopes of demand and supply curves) which can be empirically estimated and provides a unique and robust result irrespective of shape and form of individual utilities / production functions. Furthermore, existing literature does not consider welfare loss when savings market is adjusting to final equilibrium after a shock while deriving an optimal savings policy. In addition to that, number of savers (all public and private saving entities, including households, firms, etc.) and saving rate are vital parameters for savings in an economy, and while deriving an optimal savings policy, it is necessary to take into consideration these parameters to ensure that quantum of savings due to interest rate movement gets adjusted in target time duration, without which there may be additional efficiency loss than that envisioned while deriving an optimal savings policy for an economy. Methods: This research project designs a dynamical model for savings market and extends that to a three-dimensional savings system in an economy by taking into consideration number of savers, saving rate, and interest rate; and based on that derives an optimal comprehensive savings policy while accounting for efficiency losses when savings market, saving rate, and number of savers are adjusting to final equilibrium, in addition to the welfare loss on account of equilibrium shift. Results: Without consideration of welfare loss / gain while savings market is adjusting after implementation of a savings policy, welfare picture remains incomplete, and the optimal savings policy based on partial welfare cannot be considered as optimal in true sense. Traditionally, welfare of only producer and consumer is taken into consideration without accounting for welfare of production factors. An expression of efficiency loss / gain as a result of savings policy based on welfare including those of production factors has been presented and optimal savings policies have been derived by minimizing efficiency losses and presented as a final result in the form of mathematical expressions. This paper demonstrates that both supply and demand shocks operate through a common channel, i.e., inventory of funds in savings market as both kinds of shock affect inventory of funds and hence can be categorized just as an inventory shock. Conclusion: For optimal welfare gains, practitioners / policy makers must estimate theoretically derived optimal savings policies based on the dynamic model developed in this paper and presented in the form of mathematical expressions from real world relevant data for implementation.

Monetary Integration Across West Africa: Is the Region Ripe for a Monetary Union?

This study investigates the possibility of forming a monetary union across West Africa. This was achieved by employing the structural VAR framework. Data on real GDP, inflation, and exchange rate were used to represent supply, monetary, and demand shocks from the period 1986 to 2020. The impulse response and variance decomposition results showed that shocks affecting the West African region are idiosyncratic, while the residuals of the structural VAR were used to compute the correlation coefficient. The correlation coefficient revealed that the demand and monetary shocks were symmetric across WAEMU countries and asymmetric for the rest of the region. The study suggests that the West African region is not ripe for a monetary union. However, the study opined that the WAEMU countries are the closest to forming a West African monetary union and a piecemeal approach may be adopted such that the WAEMU countries are the first to form the union, while the rest may join when they meet the convergence criteria. In essence, West African countries’ central banks need to focus on harmonizing their monetary policies and remove all barriers to factor mobility for the synchronization of shocks and for all countries to meet the convergence criteria.

Forecasting and planning for a critical infrastructure sector during a pandemic: Empirical evidence from a food supply chain

The meat supply chain (MSC) – a key constituent of the ‘Food & Agriculture’ CISA critical infrastructure sector, was among the most impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. The witnessed successive demand and supply shocks uncovered the fragility of the MSC and revealed that more attention should be given by researchers and practitioners to ensure effective planning of such a critical infrastructure sector during periods of turbulence. To that end, in this paper we propose a two-stage approach for the planning of an MSC. In the first stage, we identify the most suitable model for predicting the demand and the supply. In the second stage, a multi-period multi-product mixed integer programming (MIP) model accounting for key MSC features is devised to deal with the planning of the MSC. Furthermore, in order to validate our theoretical proposition, a case study pertaining to a real-life MSC was used during the second and first wave of COVID-19 under different conditions. In particular, the results show that accurate demand and supply forecasting, and the recourse to rolling horizon planning approach, allow for satisfying the demand and maintaining the MSC profit in periods of turbulence, and so can be considered as levers for supply chain resilience.

Ökonomische Folgen: Was Kriege die Welt kosten

Abstract Amid escalating geopolitical tensions, we offers insights into the far-reaching consequences of wars. Based on a new dataset on major conflicts since 1870, the findings show that wars cause a substantial decline in GDP and spike in inflation within war zones. Interestingly, countries geographically close to war zones experience significant economic disruptions, even when neutral to the conflict, whereas countries far from the conflict may see minimal to slightly positive spillovers. The study demonstrates how wars represent a massive negative supply shock, with geographical proximity and trade integration explaining the varying effects on different countries.

Credit Supply Shocks and Prices: Evidence from Danish Firms

We study the response of firms’ output prices to a cut in credit supply. We combine data on loans between Danish firms and banks with survey-based producer prices and transaction-based export unit values. Exploiting banks’ heterogeneous exposure to the global financial crisis, we show that loans to firms with relationships to exposed banks drop and lending rates increase. In response, firms raise prices by 3–5 percent. This effect is decreasing in the elasticity of firms’ demand but positive for most industrial production. Our results show that firms increase prices to raise cash when external sources of liquidity dry up. (JEL D22, E23, E31, E32, E44, G01, G21)

Understanding the Dynamics of Oil Price Shocks and Stock Market Volatility in Pakistan: A Non-Linear Approach during COVID-19

Purpose: This article examines the complex relationship between oil price shocks and stock market volatility in Pakistan during the COVID-19 outbreak. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study used a Non-Linear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model to meticulously explore how oil price fluctuations, specifically supply and demand shocks, affect Pakistan's stock market. Monthly data sets from 2020 to 2022 were utilized for the analysis. Research Findings: The study's significant findings reveal that oil price shocks, except for a demand shock specific to the oil industry, have varying long- and short-term effects on stock market volatility, leading to asymmetry. This asymmetrical impact of oil supply and demand shocks on stock market volatility is confirmed, with no asymmetry observed from oil-specific demand shocks in the short term. These findings hold crucial implications for policymakers and investors in understanding and managing the economic dynamics of Pakistan post-COVID-19. Theoretical Contribution/Originality: This research stands out for its originality in understanding Pakistan's economic dynamics post-COVID-19. It provides unique insights for policymakers and investors to navigate future uncertainties related to oil price changes and market volatility, thereby sparking new avenues of thought and action in the field. Implications/Originality/Value: The practical implications of this study's findings empower policymakers and investors to make informed decisions to stabilize Pakistan’s economy after the pandemic. Specifically, the research provides guidance on managing the behaviour of stakeholders and banks in response to oil shocks, thereby contributing to the economic resilience of the country.

International Comovement in the Global Production Network

Abstract This article provides a general framework to study the role of production networks in international GDP comovement. We first derive an additive decomposition of bilateral GDP comovement into components capturing shock transmission and shock correlation. We quantify this decomposition in a parsimonious multi-country, multi-sector dynamic network propagation model, using data for the G7 countries over the period 1978–2007. Our main finding is that while the network transmission of shocks is quantitatively important, it accounts for a minority of observed comovement under the estimated range of structural elasticities. Contemporaneous responses to correlated shocks in the production network are more successful at generating comovement than intertemporal propagation through capital accumulation. Extensions with multiple shocks, nominal rigidities, and international financial integration leave our main result unchanged. A combination of TFP and labour supply shocks is quantitatively successful at reproducing the observed international business cycle.

The Role of Speculative Demand in Housing Price Changes in Turkey

Housing accounts for the largest portion of households' total assets in Turkey. It is an economic sector that requires careful analysis, especially considering the government's housing sector support policies and the significant price increases in recent years. This study utilizes the theoretical model developed within the Efficient Markets Hypothesis framework and the SVAR methodology to estimate house price changes. These changes are then decomposed into structural shocks, including supply, residential demand, and speculative demand shocks. The empirical results highlight the significant role of speculative demand in driving house price changes, with house price expectations being the main factor influencing speculative demand shocks. The behavior of the banking sector and interest rates also play a significant role in this process. Consequently, policies to stabilize house prices should consider these factors and not solely focus on credit regulations when consumer expectations are the driving force behind house price changes.

Balancing the scales: How housing supply regulation shapes household wealth inequality in China

Given its significant implications for the economy and society, this paper investigates the impact of housing supply regulation on household wealth inequality. Utilizing data from the China Household Finance Survey and land transaction records spanning from 2013 to 2019, we employ recentered influence function regression and two-way fixed effects models to analyze the effect of unexpected housing supply shocks on the wealth gap among households. Our findings reveal that positive unexpected housing supply shocks are crucial in reducing household wealth inequality. This reduction is attributed to the heterogeneous impacts of housing supply regulation on different wealth groups. By deregulating the housing supply, the upward trend in housing prices has slowed, which in turn makes homeownership more accessible and facilitates wealth accumulation for households that fall within the 20 % and 80 % wealth quantiles. Conversely, deregulation has a negative impact on property values for households in the 80–100 % wealth quantile, thus mitigating their overall wealth growth. Overall, this study emphasizes the significant role of housing supply regulation in shaping wealth inequality in China.

Max Share Identification of Multiple Shocks: An Application to Uncertainty and Financial Conditions

We generalize the Max Share approach to allow for simultaneous identification of a multiplicity of shocks in a Structural Vector Autoregression. Our machinery therefore overcomes the well-known drawbacks that individually identified shocks (i) tend to be correlated to each other or (ii) can be separated under orthogonalizations with weak economic ground. We show that identification corresponds to solving a nontrivial optimization problem. We provide conditions for non-emptiness of solutions and point-identification, and Bayesian algorithms for estimation and inference. We use the approach to study the effects of uncertainty and financial shocks, allowing for the possibility that the former responds contemporaneously to other shocks, distinguishing macroeconomic from financial uncertainty and credit supply shocks. Using U.S. data we find that financial uncertainty mimics a demand shock, while the interpretation of macro uncertainty is more mixed. Furthermore, variation in uncertainty partially represents the endogenous response of uncertainty to other shocks.

Inflation returns. Revisiting the role of external and domestic shocks with Bayesian structural VAR

Following recent exceptional events in the world economy inflation increased remarkably across most countries, reinvigorating the prevalent discussion on the sources of consumer price dynamics. We analyse this issue for the small open economy of Poland by means of the Bayesian structural VAR. The model describes the evolution of eight key macroeconomic variables and is identified with a set of zero and sign restrictions. This framework, applicable also to other small open economies, provides sound economic interpretation of three domestic and five external shocks, of which two are country-specific and the remaining three are purely global. In a robust manner we show that country-specific energy price shocks and global supply shocks mostly determine the recent inflation surge in Poland. We illustrate that inflation response to these two shocks has become markedly more persistent after the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. We also demonstrate that the choice of an inadequate energy prices proxy may result in underestimating the contribution of the energy price shock to inflation, whereas accounting for recent geopolitical threats and other exogenous events does not alter our baseline findings.