Export Supply Research Articles

Heteroskedastic supply and demand estimation: Analysis and testing

The Feenstra (1994) method is widely used in the international trade literature to estimate supply and demand elasticities. The method is mechanically an IV strategy, and we demonstrate that this has important implications for its application and reliability. The assumptions needed for it to yield unbiased estimates are stronger than previously understood, and in practice, estimates are subject to bias due to both weak instruments and violations of the exclusion restriction. We illustrate how these arise in context and show that standard tests identify estimates that are likely to be biased. In an application to U.S. import data, estimates of import demand and export supply elasticities are substantially lower among goods that pass standard tests relative to those that fail. We find evidence that this difference in elasticities reflects reduction of bias as well as some selection in the set of goods that tend to pass both tests.

Законодательные основы регулирования развития органического сельского хозяйства России

Abstract. The purpose of the study is to assess the current regulatory framework for the regulation of organic agriculture for the analysis of existing shortcomings and the degree of its compliance with the real needs of domestic agribusiness. The main method of research was the analysis of the legislative framework at the federal and regional levels, as well as domestic and foreign experience in organizing budget support for organic agricultural producers on its basis. Results. The current regulatory legal acts regulating the production of organic food in Russia and the world are considered. The assessment of measures to support organic agriculture in the context of individual regions of the Russian Federation was carried out. The characteristics of the development features and necessary adjustments of the current regulatory framework of organic production are given. Taking into account foreign practices, proposals are formulated to reduce the costs of organic producers for certification by developing systems of guarantee participation and group certification. In order to more actively develop the organic food market in Russia and, in particular, in the North-West, measures are proposed to make adjustments to the legal regulation of organic farming and animal husbandry, the transition to mass certification of small businesses. This will strengthen the competitive position of domestic organic agricultural producers primarily in the domestic market and strengthen the overall position of the industry even in conditions of increased external restrictions for export supplies. The scientific novelty of the study is to assess the existing institutional opportunities and limitations in the production of organic products at the present stage of development of the agricultural sector.

Avocado (Persea americana cv. ‘Hass’) Fruit Mineral Composition at Canopy Level towards Sustainable Quality

Sustaining avocado fruit quality is crucial to maintain customer satisfaction and confidence. Among fruit qualities, mineral nutrient composition is an important contributor to postharvest robustness. Towards better understanding and addressing variability within the plant canopy, ‘Hass’ fruit from across seven orchard blocks were individually characterised. From five representative trees in each block, five fruit were harvested (one from each of five positions: top (sun-exposed), bottom (shaded), middle (shaded), East (sun-exposed), and West (sun-exposed)). Fruit dry matter was significantly higher (p ≤ 0.001) in fruit from the top, East, and West sun-exposed positions. No significant (p > 0.05) effect of position was discerned for fruit weight at harvest or for either stem end rot (SER) or body rot (BR) incidence at eating soft. Shaded fruit had significantly higher (p ≤ 0.05) [N], [K], [Mg], N:Ca, K:Ca, and K + Mg:Ca in their flesh. Significant negative linear correlations (p ≤ 0.001) were obtained between fruit DM and flesh [N] (r = −0.75), [K] (r = −0.67), and N:Ca (r = −0.57). SER and BR incidence were significantly positively correlated (p ≤ 0.01) with flesh and skin mineral ratios of N:Ca, K:Ca, Mg:Ca, and K + Mg:Ca. Skin and flesh [Ca] were significantly negatively correlated with SER (r = −0.51, p ≤ 0.01) and BR (r = −0.74, p ≤ 0.001) incidences. Soil cation (Ca, Mg, K) availability (%base saturation of cation exchange capacity (CEC)) was not (p > 0.05) correlated with skin or flesh mineral concentrations or ratios. Considered collectively, results suggest that selective harvest of sun-exposed fruit with inherently lower mineral nutrient ratios yields relatively robust fruit. Such fruit lots should better tolerate the rigours of harvest and postharvest treatment and handling. In this context, they should better maintain quality upon passage through long, in terms of accumulated time-temperature increments, export supply chains. In contrast, shaded fruit could be directed into shorter domestic supply chains. As a harvest strategy, segregating fruit lots from harvest could underpin the quality offered to consumers at the end of ‘short’ and ‘long’ supply chains.

ФАКТОРЫ ФОРМИРОВАНИЯ ГОСУДАРСТВЕННОЙ ЭКСПОРТНОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ

One of the most important strategic directions of the state is the growth of the volume of agricultural products and food and the formation of a national export policy. Currently, the development of export activities in the agricultural sector of the economy is becoming one of the conditions for increasing the level of sustainability and stability of its economic growth. This is due to the fact that food around the world is an indicator of wellbeing, regardless of nation. Food is becoming practically the main strategic product. It, regardless of the socio-economic development of the state, becomes an effective means of confrontation between countries. It should be noted that the main role in the world market for food and agricultural raw materials is played by economically developed countries, which solve the food problem in their own interests. At the same time, despite the great agrarian potential, the competitive advantages of the state are manifested, as a rule, in the raw materials market of agri-food products, which becomes one of the main obstacles to the development of exports of agricultural products of any state. In addition, the low level of competitiveness of agricultural raw materials reduces the efficiency of their export supplies. A high level of competitiveness of agricultural products, raw materials and food can be achieved both by stimulating exports and through technical and technological modernization of agroindustrial products. It is also necessary to develop an export infrastructure, the task of which is to promote domestic products to the foreign market of agricultural products, raw materials and food. It is possible to increase the production of highly competitive, high-quality products intended for export only if there is an effective national export policy, which should be based on factors influencing the strategic directions of export of agri-food products.

Реализация программы социальной газификации и догазификации в преодолении проблем отечественного ТЭК

The material of the proposed article seems to the authors to be extremely relevant in connection with the 11 packages adopted by the Western community against Russia, containing more than 12 thousand of all kinds of sanctions and restrictions, including in relation to the export of hydrocarbons. This circumstance has put the domestic economy in an extremely difficult situation, especially in the context of a special military operation. Reorientation of the oil and gas industry to the East, to the countries of Greater Eurasia, year-round transport and industrial development of the Northern Sea Route and the Arctic zone of Russia will not only overcome the problems and difficulties that have arisen, but also strengthen political and economic ties with the states of the Silk Road and the Organization of the Collective Security Treaty (CSTO). The purpose of the study is to provide a comprehensive economic assessment of the implementation of the state Program for Social Gasification/Additional Gasification in the constituent entities of the Federation, as well as to forecast industrial production based on the processing of hydrocarbon raw materials at different degrees of technological conversion into lines of consumer goods and products intended for export. The research results obtained so far by the authors of the article boil down to a review of information sources on the identified problems, an analysis of individual issues of the dynamics of production, export supplies, transportation and pricing of domestic hydrocarbon raw materials, and to determining the success of the implementation of the gasification program in individual regions of the Federation. The conceptual approaches involved were discussed. In conclusion, the article is accompanied by a number of author's conclusions.

A synergetic approach to the development of the economic potential of the aviation complex enterprises

The potential of aviation enterprises makes it possible to increase the volume of development and production of aviation equipment, in particular: regional passenger and transport aircraft; aircraft engines and units; on-board radio-electronic equipment aimed at the use of satellite communication, navigation and observation systems; helicopters and general aviation aircraft, including unmanned ones; military goods and dual-use products. It is substantiated that the harmonization of the modern system of state regulation of the integration of the foreign trade sector of Ukraine into the EU should be carried out based on the fact that the parties have excellent reasons for forming an integration association. The consistent implementation of worldview and methodological procedures for maximizing the use of potential is, first of all, a tool for overcoming the low level of economic development, efforts through unification to create better conditions for the industrialization and development of aviation enterprises, the possibility of qualitative transformation of the foreign trade sector by attracting foreign investments and high technologies. This approach should contribute to the fundamental restructuring and diversification of export supplies, increase the opportunities to use positive development trends, and increase the level of international competitiveness of domestic economic entities. The results of the diagnostics of aviation enterprises made it possible to reveal the expediency of forming a new structure of interaction of enterprises and systematizing them into an aviation complex, which is considered as a set of organizations involved in the development, testing, production, sale, operation, modernization and repair of aviation equipment, which form several interconnected clusters.

РАЗВИТИЕ ЭКСПОРТНОГО ПОТЕНЦИАЛА ОТЕЧЕСТВЕННОГО СВИНОВОДСТВА: ОТ ПЛАНИРОВАНИЯ К РЕАЛИЗАЦИИ

The article analyzes the current situation in the domestic pork market. The factors and conditions for the development of pig farming in Russia in modern economic conditions have been established. An analysis of the state of the world pork market was carried out, and the main importers and exporters of pig products were identified. Based on the research, proposals were made for the development of foreign economic activity and increasing export supplies of pork meat from Russia.

АНАЛІЗ ЗОВНІШНЬОЇ ТОРГІВЛІ ТОВАРАМИ УКРАЇНИ З КРАЇНАМИ ЄВРОПЕЙСЬКОГО СОЮЗУ

The article is devoted to the study of foreign trade in goods of Ukraine with the countries of the European Union (hereinafter – the EU) with the identification of priority partners for the purpose of diversification and activation of foreign trade cooperation. It was emphasized that the foreign trade of Ukraine is dominated by trade in goods, where a negative trade balance is formed, in particular, in trade with EU countries. In order to determine the key consumers of domestic goods among the EU-27 countries, an ABC analysis was conducted based on the volume of goods exported to them by Ukraine in 2016–2021. The distribution of EU countries into groups was carried out as follows: group A – countries that account for a significant volume of exports of goods by Ukraine (about 80% of the total volume); group B – countries with an average level of export supplies of goods from Ukraine (about 15%); group C – countries with a small volume of exports of goods from Ukraine (about 5%). ABC-analysis is complemented by XYZ-analysis, which allows to analyze and forecast the stability of export of goods to EU countries. Based on the results of the ABC-XYZ analysis, a conclusion was made regarding the expediency of supporting the volume and dynamics of trade cooperation with key EU partner countries in the export of goods – Poland, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, Romania, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia, Austria, and the need to intensify efforts to increasing the export of goods to countries that in the medium term have the potential to become attractive markets for the consumption of domestic products – France, Bulgaria, Belgium, Lithuania, and to a lesser extent – Denmark, Greece and Latvia. At the same time, it is noted that the vast majority of these countries are highly developed economies of the European Union, and trade in goods with them for Ukraine is disparate. Therefore, it is important to continue cooperation with the EU regarding the signing of the Agreement on Conformity Assessment and Acceptance of Industrial Products, recognition of the equivalence of sanitary and phytosanitary measures for opening markets, and simplifying the export of food and agricultural products. It is also necessary to increase efforts to gradually open public procurement markets. The further liberalization of transport with the EU, the conclusion of agreements in the field of road, inland water and railway transport are also important.

Обеспечение продовольственной безопасности на основе расширения экспортных поставок сена из люцерны

The article presents the results of a study of the processes of ensuring food security based on the expansion of export supplies of alfalfa hay. The dynamics of the number of cows in India, the European Union, Brazil, the USA; the growth of world milk prices; alfalfa production in the countries of the world are analyzed. The parameters of the import of alfalfa processing products to China have been determined.

Перспективные направления повышения продовольственной безопасности Российской Федерации и Китая на основе развития экспорта российской свинины в дальневосточном направлении

the article presents the results of a study of promising directions for increasing food security of the Russian Federation and China based on the development of Russian pork exports to the Far East. The pig population in the countries of the world was analyzed. Environmental factors hindering the development of pig farming in China have been identified. Opportunities for the development of Russian pig farming based on increasing export supplies to the Far East have been identified.

Логистика как драйвер развития торгово-экономического сотрудничества «Россия – Африка»

Russia and Africa have a long history of trade relations, including the export and import of various goods and services. In recent years, the ways of cooperation have become more active and diverse. The list of the main African countries – trade and economic partners of the Russian Federation is given. The increase in export supplies from Russia to African countries and the increased interest of African countries in Russian goods and services create new opportunities for the development of mutually beneficial relations. The development of trade and economic cooperation between Russia and Africa in modern conditions has led to the need to create efficient and sustainable logistics routes between these two regions. The relevance of the formation of new logistics routes is substantiated and the potential benefits that they can bring to both sides, including economic growth, strengthening trade ties and increasing competitiveness, are investigated. The key factors influencing the formation of these routes, such as geographical location, infrastructure capabilities, customs procedures, transport networks and communications, are analyzed. Prospects for the development of new logistics routes to the African continent associated with the continuation of the North-South transport and logistics corridor were noted. The challenges and problems that countries face when creating new logistics routes are considered, and recommendations for overcoming them are proposed. The effective formation of new logistics routes between Russia and Africa can potentially lead to stimulating economic growth, developing trade and strengthening relations between the regions.

Resource Potential of the Oil and Gas Complex of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and Its Development Prospects

Abstract. In recent years, the Russian oil and gas complex has been undergoing sanctions and restrictions related to the political situation in the country and in the world, which negatively affects the economic development of the country. The consequences of sanctions include: disruption of logistics of export supplies of oil and gas raw materials, replacement of Russian hydrocarbons with supplies from other countries, reduction of foreign investment and participation of foreign companies in Russian oil and gas projects, restriction of imports for the supply of equipment and technologies, etc. First of all, these problems cause the need to expand sales markets and build new production and logistics chains, replacing imported equipment and technologies with domestic ones. In order to solve the difficult economic relations that have arisen with the EU countries, it is proposed to redirect the market for oil and gas raw materials towards Asian countries. In this regard, the study of oil and gas resources of the Far East, including the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) is a very relevant task. The purpose of this article is to identify the level of availability of mineral resources of the oil and gas complex. The object of the study is the oil and gas complex of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia): industrial balance reserves and forecast resources of oil and gas fields in the region, and the main subsurface users of oil and gas fields. The subject of the study is the analysis and assessment of the state of the mineral resource base of the oil and gas resources of the region and the prospects for its development. Based on the analysis of the current state of the potential of the oil and gas resources of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), as well as a review of the global oil and gas market, promising directions for the development of the regional oil and gas complex are identified in the article.

ANALYSIS OF THE STATE AND DYNAMICS OF UKRAINE'S FOREIGN TRADE IN FRUIT AND VEGETABLE PRODUCTS UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF A FULL-SCALE INVASION WITH THE PROVISIONS OF THE FTA+ WITH THE EU

ANALYSIS OF THE STATE AND DYNAMICS OF UKRAINE'S FOREIGN TRADE IN FRUIT AND VEGETABLE PRODUCTS UNDER THE CONDITIONS OF A FULL-SCALE INVASION WITH THE PROVISIONS OF THE FTA+ WITH THE EU

Russian Agricultural Exports: Economic and Statistical Analysis

The article presents the results of an economic and statistical analysis of Russian agricultural exports from 2012 to 2021 – a period of intensive growth during which revenue in foreign markets doubled, and the country entered the top twenty leaders in food exports. The in- fluence of the factors of physical volume and price on the dynamics of exports of products from the agricultural sector of Russia is analyzed, and a change in the assessment of the contribution of individual product categories to export growth was revealed when recalculating indica- tors from current prices to comparable prices. It has been established that average prices for Russian agricultural products are half the world pri-ces, which leads to a lack of income from the export of agricultural products for Russia (on average, about 4.9 billion US dollars per year for the last five years). The main reason for this deviation is that a significant share of the structure of Russian food exports is made up of products with a low degree of processing. Additionally, there is a situation with lower prices for some Russian goods of a comparable range, primarily in the food and processing industries.An assessment of the risks to the sustainability of Russian agribusiness in the event of a disruption in export supplies showed that, given the low level of development of intra-industry trade, domestic production remains quite vulnerable to a potential reduction in exports when foreign trade restrictions are introduced. If trade chains are broken, only 20% of exports can be redirected to the domestic market to replace imports.An analysis of the achievement of targets for the development of Russian agricultural exports in 2016–2021 was carried out and indicates that, despite its significant overall growth during the period under study, in some years its dynamics lagged behind the values established in state programs, even considering their repeated adjustments. This is largely due to the dependence of the growth of Russian exports of agricultural products on the increase in the production of grain and oilseeds, which is influenced, among other things, by random weather factors. Thus, based on data for individual years, it is impossible to judge the success or failure in the implementation of Russian agricultural export devel- opment programs, and the methodology for assessing the achievement of target indicators itself requires improvement.

IMPACT OF A HEALTHY WORKING ENVIRONMENT ON CARPET WEAVING INDUSTRY GROWTH

The art of carpet weaving is an area of culture which development traces back to a century-old tradition in the countries of the East. This industry has survived to present day and plays a significant role for the economies of Central Asia and Iran, making up a large share of their export supplies. The scientists from different countries study the history of carpet weaving goods in the context of their cultural and artistic peculiarities: ornaments, signs, symbols, etc. However, this industry is primary considered as a source of creating objects of decorative and applied art. Only a few researchers address the current economic problems of the industry, in particular, the issues of labour organization and working conditions.
 Technology and organization of handmade carpet making and working conditions of craftsmen in Afghanistan have not changed much for many centuries: one carpet is created within 2-4 months by backbreaking work of a group of 3-5 Afghan craftswomen. The industry faces significant competition from cheap artificial carpets from Pakistan. Experts note a drop in the export potential of carpet weaving in Afghanistan, and some even talk about the problem of fading of the ancient craft traditions in the country. These circumstances determined the relevance of the topic.
 The article describes the findings of the fieldwork-based research devoted to investigating the impact of a healthy working environment on the carpet weaving industry growth. The aim of this study is to identify the factors affecting a healthy working environment and establish the correlation between them on the example of carpet weaving industry.
 The findings are the results of the survey conducted in all carpet weaving companies in the Akchakh district of Jawzjan province in northern Afghanistan. This rural region has an ancient tradition of carpet weaving.

ПЛЮС ГАЗИФИКАЦИЯ/ДОГАЗИФИКАЦИЯ ВСЕХ РОССИЙСКИХ ПОЛЬЗОВАТЕЛЕЙ И ИНЫЕ ПРОБЛЕМЫ ОТРАСЛИ

The material of the proposed article seems to the authors to be extremely relevant in connection with the 11 packages adopted by the Western community against Russia, containing more than 12 thousand of all kinds of sanctions and restrictions, including in relation to the export of hydrocarbons. This circumstance has put the domestic economy in an extremely difficult situation, especially in the context of a special military operation. Reorientation of the oil and gas industry to the East, to the countries of Greater Eurasia, year-round transport and industrial development of the Northern Sea Route and the Arctic zone of Russia will not only overcome the problems and difficulties that have arisen, but also strengthen political and economic ties with the states of the Silk Road and the Organization of the Collective Security Treaty (CSTO). The purpose of the study is to provide a comprehensive economic assessment of the implementation of the state Program for Social Gasification/Additional Gasification in the constituent entities of the Federation, as well as to forecast industrial production based on the processing of hydrocarbon raw materials at different degrees of technological conversion into lines of consumer goods and products intended for export. The research results obtained so far by the authors of the article boil down to a review of information sources on the identified problems, an analysis of individual issues of the dynamics of production, export supplies, transportation and pricing of domestic hydrocarbon raw materials, and to determining the success of the implementation of the gasification program in individual regions of the Federation. The conceptual approaches involved were discussed. In conclusion, the article is accompanied by a number of author's conclusions.

Foreign trade of the USSR in agricultural products in the period 1941-1945

The object of the study is the import and export supplies of food products, agricultural raw materials and live animals to the USSR during the Great Patriotic War, the War with Japan and until the end of 1945. The subject of the study is the dynamics, trends and patterns of changes in the volume and structure of import and export of various types of agricultural products into the country and changes in the ratio of various supply channels of these products. The main content of the study is the creation of a statistical database based on a number of archival statistical sources containing data on agricultural imports and exports for the specified period and the analysis of this database. The article provides a brief description of the research on the topic of the work and an analysis of archival sources. When creating a statistical database containing data on the natural volumes of imports and exports of agricultural products, methods of historical, source-based and statistical analysis were used. As a result of reviewing the created statistical sample with data on agricultural imports and exports of the country, the following results were obtained containing elements of scientific novelty: 1. The characteristics of agricultural imports are more complete than in most previous studies. 2. The characteristics of the export of agricultural products for these years are given, which is absent in most previous studies. 3. In connection with the above, a more accurate description of the trends in the characteristics of imports and exports of agricultural raw materials and food during the years of the Great Patriotic War and the War with Japan is given, and the share of imports of a number of types of agricultural products in the total domestic production is calculated in a new way.

Design solutions of large-capacity storage tanks for liquefied natural gases

Objective. The purpose of the study is to find prospects for the development of domestic large-scale isothermal LNG storage facilities to meet the required volume of export supplies from the Russian Federation.Method. During the study, modern methods of design, analysis of materials and structures were used.Result. Types of sections and joints of elements are presented. The general construction design and construction of an external reinforced concrete tank is described, taking into account the corresponding connections to the foundation and internal tank, internal tank, secondary bottom, vapor barrier, thermal protection system, domed roof, suspended ceiling, as well as the thermal insulation system of the tank. To ensure higher performance characteristics of the structure, a concrete strength class is recommended for the base slab and roofing slab and walls, as well as thermal insulation material. Requirements for the designs and materials of protective fences for large-capacity isothermal LNG storage facilities have been determined.Conclusion. The systemic relationship between all components of special building structures, building and thermal insulation materials has been determined.

Tariff pass‐through: The case of china's WTO accession

Recent studies on the China–US trade war surprisingly find complete tariff pass‐through into import prices for both China and the United States. This paper provides additional evidence of tariff pass‐through in China. Using firm‐level monthly trade transaction data, we estimate the tariff pass‐through for Chinese imports in the period of WTO accession during 2000–2006. Consistent with evidence during the trade war, tariff pass‐through is also complete for tariff reductions induced by the WTO accession. Structural estimates of export supply elasticity also imply complete tariff pass‐through. Additionally, we find the complete pass‐through result holds regardless of firm ownership types, product end‐use, or China's market share in world imports.

Can national productions replace imports in West African countries? Estimation of the Marshall–Lerner–Robinson condition (MLRC)

PurposeThis article examines if the national productions of West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) countries can be substituted for the imports by testing MLRC in these countries.Design/methodology/approachThe Mundell–Fleming model (MMF) is the analytical framework adopted in this paper with import demand and export supply functions estimation borrowed to Thirlwall (1979). This study covers four countries in West Africa from 1990 to 2021. The estimation procedure used is an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration.FindingsThe findings reveal that there is a strong marginal propensity to import in the WAEMU countries. The hypothesis of a non-significant price effect on imports in the short-term is confirmed for several countries while only Togo satisfies the MLRC in the short and long run.Originality/valueThis study presents several originalities: (1) it evaluates MLRC with a clear analytical framework; (2) unlike other studies, this article quantifies the MLRC from a theoretical, econometric and empirical point of view; (3) this article presents the results country by country in order to reveal heterogeneity between countries; (4) this study adds to the Marshall–Lerner condition for the derivation of Robinson by considering a situation where initially the trade balance is not in equilibrium.