Copper Supply Research Articles

Resource and climate paradox: quantifying the impact of climate change in the copper supply chain

ABSTRACT Climate change presents major challenges to industries like mining, which is essential for supplying minerals critical to the global energy transition. This study presents a novel approach to assessing climate change impacts on mineral supply, focusing on Chile, the world’s top copper producer. We evaluate how production projections, extreme weather exposure, and climate risks affect copper output, finding potential disruptions of 1% to 11%. These findings urge policymakers and mining companies to adopt adaptation strategies and integrate climate risk assessments into operations. As climate change challenges industries globally, mining must address unique vulnerabilities to support the energy transition.

Discovery and Underground Mining of Large Deposits: Essential Training to Ensure Copper Supply

Editor’s note: The aim of the Geology and Mining series is to introduce early career professionals and students to various aspects of mineral exploration, development, and mining in order to share the experiences and insight of each author on the myriad of topics involved with the mineral industry and the ways in which geoscientists contribute to each. Abstract A supply shortfall of at least 6 million tonnes (Mt) Cu is expected by 2031—with total demand now forecast to increase from 25 Mt in 2023 to >36 Mt, and possibly to a suggested 50 Mt by 2050—given the present trend in demand. The deficit can be partially filled by increased mine production, expanding currently installed mine production capacity, and increasing Cu recycling. However, satisfying demand in 2050 as the demand-to-mining supply gap increases will require the accelerated discovery of at least five large Cu deposits—individually producing >0.5 to >1.0 Mt/yr Cu—and their related mine development, by 2030. These five deposit discoveries are required to replace mines scheduled to close in the 2050s, given the >20 years needed to take a deposit from discovery to mine production. The two largest sources of Cu supply, porphyry and sediment-hosted Cu deposits, can potentially fill the gap if enough discoveries are made; however, there is no evidence that this is about to occur. Future porphyry Cu discoveries are expected to be mined underground, mostly by a caving method. The demand increase is occurring at a time when the capital intensity of porphyry Cu mine development has almost doubled since 2006. We predict that the only solution to the future Cu demand-supply challenge for society and the mining industry in the short to medium term rests with simple demand-supply economics and a substantially increased Cu price. Copper substitution by other materials and recycling could potentially benefit from a significantly increased price; however, the major advantage will be conferred on deposits amenable to open-pit mining that are undeveloped because of price-dependent, failed feasibility studies. The challenge of possibly doubling Cu supply by ca. 2050 through developing mines on large Cu deposits—both discovered and undiscovered, in an unprecedented number and in a shorter period—will require a major increase in the number of competent mining industry personnel. This comes at a time when the industry faces an aging workforce, leading to a critical skills gap compounded by a chronic shortage of students graduating in the sciences and engineering with mining-related university degrees. There is an acute shortage of experienced professionals in cave mining, and the substantial number of open-pit mining professionals who are predicted to retire by 2030 will need to be replaced. On-the-job training of geoscientists and engineers after graduation, delivered by experienced practitioners through university-accredited professional development programs, is suggested as the solution.

Will future copper resources and supply be adequate to meet the net zero emission goal?

The fact that in recent times mineral exploration has been disappointing and that transition to clean energy to achieve net zero emission by 2050 will place extraordinary pressure on copper demand, are beyond dispute. The critical question is to what extent will copper supply be capable of satisfying growing demand in a net zero future. Reality is that global copper resources have been growing significantly and steadily for decades despite increasing mine production. Besides, with dwindling exploration discoveries, this increase is primarily attributable to expansion of the resources of existing deposits through a combination of better progressive delineation and re-assessment of classification of resources in response to economic and technological changes, the so-called Australasian Joint Ore Reserves Committee (JORC) ‘modifying factors’. Analysis of MinEx Consulting's global mineral deposit database indicates that just the resources of deposits discovered since 2010 have been growing at estimated Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGRs) in the range 7.5% to 15.5%, but greater additional tonnage is associated with deposits discovered before 2010. The result is that tens of millions of tonnes of copper are added to the inventory each year, notwithstanding increasing production and mounting Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) pressure sterilising some deposits. In essence, copper supply shortages are unlikely to result from depletion of copper resources but rather from possible inadequacy of mining and processing capacity. Geopolitical supply risk is also low compared to some other critical metals (e.g., Co and Ni) on account of the large number and geographical dispersion of copper deposits. Increases in price due to a perception of impending scarcity will ensure that future capacity will, at a minimum, continue to grow along its historical 3% CAGR. In addition, it will create strong incentives for above-trend capacity utilisation and improvement in recycling collection and recovery. This will be followed by acceleration of expansion of capacity at many existing mines, and development of deposits at the advanced feasibility stage, releasing copper to market at lower capital cost and on shorter timeframes than exploring for and developing new mines. Estimates of possible levels of above-trend increments in capacity for the various components of the current copper endowment show that, while shortages may occur, they will not be as serious as currently generally expected. This does not mean that net zero emission may not be delayed beyond 2050, but it is more likely that it may be delayed by a range of other constrains and impediments unrelated to availability of copper, and that such delays may give copper supply breathing time.

SoS ‐ Global Solutions to Global Problems Using UAF

AbstractThis paper applies Unified Architecture Framework (UAF) to a case study which defines the global copper market as an enterprise comprising a diverse set of stakeholders and independently operating businesses and industries, with the goal to understand how they might evaluate, execute, or modify their behaviors in response to the diminishing global copper supply. Specifically, we sought to determine if the framework viewpoints, modeling language, and workflow guidance provided in the UAF specification could support the analysis. In a true System of Systems (SoS), the solution (or any improvement) relies on the cooperation of a multitude of independent and unrelated businesses and industries. Several viewpoints of UAF were evaluated to model the SoS, which reveal how certain entities may be motivated to implement solutions, and how those decisions may impact others within the SoS. We also provide observations from the analysis which may serve to improve the utility of UAF in other applications.

Influence of the development of solar photovoltaic industry on the relationship between supply and demand of key minerals in China

The importance of mineral resources cannot be ignored in the country's economic and social development and is of vital significance in securing China's continued economic and social prosperity. Against the backdrop of the country's active promotion of the clean energy industry, the booming development of the photovoltaic industry has triggered a growing demand for its key raw materials, especially important metallic minerals. Based on the system dynamics theory, the article uses Vensim to construct a photovoltaic cell-key metal mineral simulation model to analyze the development of China's photovoltaic industry in depth and focuses on its far-reaching impact on the supply and demand relationship of key minerals. The results of the study show that (1) China's photovoltaic cells show strong growth; (2) recycling and technology substitution can significantly reduce the risk of copper and aluminum supply and demand imbalance; and (3) technology substitution is more effective than recycling in reducing the supply and demand imbalance of copper and aluminum. Based on the above-mentioned findings, the article puts forward corresponding policy recommendations.

Research on Spatiotemporal Heterogeneity of the Impact of Earthquakes on Global Copper Ore Supply Based on Geographically Weighted Regression

The large and super large copper deposits worldwide are mainly distributed in the Pacific Rim and Gondwana metallogenic domains, and they are highly coupled with the spatial location of seismically active zones. Major copper-producing countries such as Chile are located in areas with high seismic activity. Earthquakes often cause copper mines to shut down, copper prices to soar, and even mining disasters, affecting the stable supply of global copper. In order to study the impact of earthquakes on the global copper ore supply, information on resource endowments, production, and earthquake data from the past 30 years are collected. This article mainly analyzes (1) the spatial correlation between earthquakes and copper mine projects, and the spatial characteristics of earthquakes’ impact on copper mine production, using correlation analysis and geographically weighted regression (GWR); (2) the impact of sudden earthquake events on the export volume and price of copper mines from the perspective of time, using the earthquake index constructed based on the magnitude of the earthquake, the depth of the epicenter, and the distance from the copper mine. The results indicate that the regions with high spatial correlation between copper mine projects and earthquakes are mainly located along the Pacific coast of South and North Americas. Earthquakes can lead to an increase in copper prices, but they will fall significantly in the short term. The impact of earthquakes on export volume generally has a delay period of 1–2 months, resulting in a short-term decrease in export volume. This article quantitatively evaluates the impact of earthquake risk on the supply chain from both spatial and temporal dimensions, providing reference for supply chain risk monitoring, risk impact assessment, and prediction. On the basis of the research results of this article, mineral resource management departments can quantitatively evaluate the spatiotemporal impact of natural risks such as earthquakes on the supply chain, adjust management policies in a timely manner, and improve the level of refined management of supply chain risks.

From boom to bust on the Atlantic fringe - copper supply networks in the Irish later Bronze Age : An introduction to a recently funded research project

A recently funded project aims to investigate and identify the primary ore sources employed in the production of copper during the Later Bronze Age (1500–800 BC) in Ireland. We introduce the project and its objectives, with a focus on analytical methodologies.

Sustain China's copper resources with domestic mining, trading, and recycling

Rapid urbanization and industrialization made China the world's largest refined copper producer and consumer. Insufficient copper ore reserves necessitated significant imports and scrap copper recycling. Using material flow and scenario analysis, this study examined historical copper supply and assessed future supply-demand balance. The results show that China's refined copper consumption soared from 2.3 Kt in 1949 to 14.43 Mt in 2020, with imports rising from 1.5 Kt to 11.77 Mt, resulting in a 75 % external dependence. In addition, primary copper importers were concentrated in the Americas. In 2020, China accumulated around 120 Mt of in-use stocks, enabling urban mineral resource development. Forecasted results indicate a persistent copper supply deficit. Recycling copper scrap is crucial to bridge the supply-demand gap. This study enhances understanding of copper's historical supply and consumption, providing policymakers with suggestions for sustainable copper resource management.

Regulation Mechanism for Designing Decarbonization Pathways in the Copper Industry Toward Carbon Neutrality.

The transformation of the global power structure caused by the carbon neutrality goal will promote copper consumption. It is crucial to explore the decarbonization pathways of the copper industry to help fulfill greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. This study utilized material flow analysis and life cycle assessment methods to investigate 12 different subscenarios based on international trade, circular economy, technology evolution, and environmental market factors. Policy combination scenario is employed to reveal the mechanism of decarbonization. The results show that refined copper consumption in China is expected to increase by 62.3% in 2060 compared to 2020. The GHG emissions of China's copper industry will reach 9.1 million tonnes (Mt) CO2e in 2060, technology evolution and environmental market are crucial for realizing carbon neutrality goal of this industry, accounting for 26.4 and 47.2% of emissions reductions, respectively, between 2020 and 2060. International trade and circular economy play important roles in the high-quality carbon peaking stage; however, imported copper and domestic secondary copper will constitute the basic supply of copper resources in China in the long run, and the comparative advantages of them will gradually weaken. Policy combination scenario can achieve the incentive synergy effect, with GHG reduced to 0.5 Mt CO2e in 2060. The enhanced application of policies such as material substitution and carbon emission trading will further promote industry to achieve net-zero GHG emission. We suggest regulating the industry's structure based on the international systemic circulation pattern and accelerating the construction of a green circular chain in the short term to achieve sustainable copper supply and high-quality carbon peaking. Promoting a high-quality technology development strategy and enhancing the environmental markets are recommended in the long term to achieve carbon neutrality.

Sustaining the United States’ copper resource supply

A secure supply of copper resource is crucial for socio-economic development. To better understand the relationship between urban mining and resource security, it is essential to conduct an integrated analysis of above-ground and underground copper supply, demand, and import/export at the national level. The study quantified the copper resource from multiple sources in the U.S. spanning from 1950 to 2021. Above-ground copper reserves exceed underground reserves by 1.8 times. Net-import dependence of refined copper has risen to 45%. Only 6% of EOL scrap was recycled, and the collection rate declined to 38% by 2021. To prepare for potential bans in China and Malaysia, the U.S. should boost its domestic copper scrap smelting capacity. The current recycling condition poses a challenge for the U.S. to achieve a sustainable supply of copper resource. Future predictions indicate that copper demand would steadily rise to approximately 5 Mt annually by the second half of this century. However, scenario analysis indicates that the total U.S. copper resources can be sustainably supplied by increasing the rate of copper scrap recovery, reducing scrap exports, and exploiting hibernating copper.

Global copper cycles in the anthroposphere since the 1960s

This study characterizes the copper cycle, quantifying flows, stocks, and losses from 1960 to 2020, and explores global copper supply and demand under six scenarios until 2050. Results show substantial growth in copper production, consumption, and trade over six decades, with around 761 Tg of copper extracted, resulting in 483 Tg in-use stocks. Monte Carlo simulations indicate an 11.4 % uncertainty. These stocks, redistributed globally, form independent secondary resources for each country, with Chile, Peru and Australia holding dominant underground reserves, and China and the United States primarily having above-ground stocks. Targeted policies are needed to close the copper cycle due to current loss rates. Copper shortages are anticipated around 2040, further exacerbated by the development of low-carbon technologies and extended copper product lifespans, but mitigated by alternative technologies and increased recycling rates.

Selective complexation leaching of copper from copper smelting slag with the alkaline glycine solution: An effective recovery method of copper from secondary resource

In the process of copper smelting, amounts of copper droplets inevitably enter the copper smelting slag (CSS), resulting in a high loss of copper. As the grade of exploitable copper ore decreases gradually, the recovery of copper from copper slag is very important to ensure the safe supply of copper. In this study, a new method was proposed to recover copper via selective complexation leaching process by using the alkaline glycine solution. Various leaching parameters, including initial pH, particle size, stirring speed, liquid-solid ratio, temperature and glycine concentration were investigated. Under the optimum leaching conditions, the copper extraction of 86.40 % was achieved, while the other valuable metal elements were barely leached. The results of leaching kinetics indicated that the mixed control, a combination of internal diffusion and interfacial chemical reaction, was the rate-limiting step in the leaching process, where the apparent activation energy was calculated to be 34.66 kJ/mol. After leaching process, the leaching solution rich in copper–glycine complex was obtained, and the copper grade in the leaching residue was 0.22 wt%, while the unseparated copper was tightly wrapped by gangue minerals. Therefore, glycine was successfully used as the leaching agent to extract copper from CSS with high efficiency and selectivity, which provided a prospective method for the green recovery of CSS.

Complex networks and deep learning for copper flow across countries

AbstractIn this paper, by using a lifecycle perspective, four stages related to the extraction, refining and processing of copper were identified. The different behaviors of countries in the import/export networks at the four stages synthetically reflect their position in the global network of copper production and consumption. The trade flows of four commodities related to the extraction, refining and processing of copper of 142 nations with population above 2 millions based on the UN Comtrade website (https://comtrade.un.org/data/), in five years from 2017 to 2021, were considered. The observed trade flows in each year have been modelled as a directed multilayer network. Then the countries have been grouped according to their structural equivalence in the international copper flow by using a Multilayer Stochastic Block Model. To put further insight in the obtained community structure of the countries, a deep learning model based on adapting the node2vec to a multilayer setting has been used to embed the countries in an Euclidean plane. To identify groups of nations that play the same role across time, some distances between the parameters obtained in consecutive years were introduced. We observe that 97 countries out of 142 consistently occupy the same position in the copper supply chain throughout the five years, while the other 45 move through different roles in the copper supply chain.

Leveraging of mycogenic copper oxide nanostructures for disease management of Alternaria blight of Brassica juncea

Abstract Brassica is one of the crops sensitive to low copper supply, leading to Alternaria blight. The present study reflects the synthesis of myco-derived copper oxide (M-CuO) nanoparticles (NPs) from Trichoderma asperellum and investigates their effect against Alternaria blight of Brassica in two soil types, alluvial and calcareous. Foliar applications of different treatments were used to treat plants: T1 (mancozeb@0.2%), T2 (propiconazole@0.05%), T3 (T. asperellum filtrate), T4 (M-CuO NPs), T5 chemically synthesized (C-CuO NPs), and T6 bulk phase (BP-CuO @25, 50, 100, 150, and 200 ppm) of each in twice such as protectant and curative method under pot experiments. M-CuO NPs in two protective sprays exhibit up to 75% disease suppression in alluvial soil, compared to 68.9% suppression in curative spray at 200 ppm. Maximum seed yield and seed number were obtained, 1.95 g/plant and 850 seeds/plant in alluvial soil, but in calcareous soil, seed yield (1.14 g/plant) and seed number 414 seeds/plant were recorded in plants supplemented with M-CuO NPs as a protectant. In both soils, maximum plant height was increased by protective applications of M-CuO NPs at 200 ppm. Thus, the present study suggested that among foliar sprays of copper nanocompounds, protective activity shows better results as compared to curative activity. Among all the treatments, M-CuO NPs were found to be most effective in suppressing disease and improving productivity and growth-promoting effects of Brassica.

Analysis of China's non-ferrous metals industry's path to peak carbon: A whole life cycle industry chain based on copper

Copper is an essential nonferrous metal, and the adjustment of its whole industry chain structure is conducive to realizing a carbon peak in the nonferrous metal industry. We have performed a life cycle assessment to calculate the carbon emissions of the copper industry. Based on the carbon emissions scenarios of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), we have utilized material flow analysis and system dynamics to analyze the structural changes in the copper industry chain from 2022 to 2060 in China. The results show that (1) the flows and in-use stocks of all types of copper resources will increase significantly. The overall copper supply may meet demand around 2040–2045 due to secondary copper production potentially replacing primary copper production to a large extent, and trade supply is the primary pathway for meeting copper demand. (2) The total carbon emissions from the regeneration system are the smallest (4 %), followed by the production and trade subsystems, accounting for 48 %. The embodied carbon emissions from copper product trade in China have expanded annually. (3) Under the SSP scenario, the copper chain carbon emission peak will be achieved by approximately 2040. Based on a balanced copper supply and demand scenario, the recycled copper recovery efficiency must reach 84.6 %, and the energy structure (the proportion of non-fossil energy in electricity) must reach 63.8 % by 2030 to achieve the carbon peak target for the copper industry chain in China. The above conclusions indicate that actively promoting adjustments in the energy structure and resource recovery processes may help encourage the carbon peak of nonferrous metals in China by realizing the carbon peak of the copper industry.

Prediction, evaluation and optimization of China's copper resource supply system under carbon constraints

Copper is one of China's strategic mineral resources, and its supply security is of great strategic significance to China. In this study, a model of China's copper resource supply system under carbon constraints is constructed using the system dynamics method, and the future supply potential of the system is analyzed and evaluated. Based on the evaluation results, the differential evolution algorithm is used to optimize the supply system to obtain the optimal supply structure that meets the supply-demand balance and carbon emission constraints. Under the carbon constraint scenario, although the carbon emissions of China's copper supply system have declined, a series of problems have also been exposed: such as insufficient primary copper production, excessive dependence on external copper resources, and excessive scrapping of unstable copper-containing products, The supply of secondary copper is affected by the import policy. These factors not only hinder the carbon emission reduction of the copper industry, but also make China's future copper supply full of uncertainty. The optimized supply system significantly reduces carbon emissions (12,664,300 tons per year on average) while meeting the supply-demand balance conditions. The optimal supply structure under the carbon constraint is 26.7 %, 36.3 %, and 37.0 % of the supply shares of the production, recycling, and trading subsystems, respectively. The study results found that improving recycling efficiency can effectively reduce carbon emissions, and when the recycling rate reaches 80 %, China's copper resource supply system will achieve “carbon peak” in 2025, with a peak carbon emission of 41.182 million tons. According to the results, this study suggests that policymakers should strengthen the exploration of primary copper resources, support the development of the secondary recovery industry, and realize diversified import distribution.

Copper technology at the Early Iron Age fortified settlements near Lakes Itkul and Irtyash, middle Trans-Urals

During the EIA (7th-3rd c. BCE), the middle Trans-Urals were populated by the Itkul culture of metalworkers. Most of the Itkul sites were excavated in 1960-1980′s, and ever since then the copper smelting technology, and exploited ore sources remained limitedly understood. To provide insight into these questions, we consider the archaeological context of copper production and apply methods of OM, SEM-EDS and LA ICP-MS to analyse copper slag, technical ceramics and ores from the Itkul culture settlement of Dautovo-1 (Itkul-1). This data is considered against the analyses of ores from the EIA sites and the Gumeshevsky mine in the Polevskoy area located 35 km from Dautovo, and the formerly investigated copper slags (Stepanov et al., 2021) from the site of Irtyash-1 located 50 km apart. The obtained results confirm that secondary copper ores of the Gumeshevsky mine, long regarded as the main ore source of the Itkul culture, were smelted at the site of Dautovo-1. We also identify the plate slag as the residue attesting to the most frequently used smelting technique, which consisted of the smelting of secondary copper ores in shallow open furnaces or crucibles and under moderately reducing conditions. The smelt ended with the removal and fast-cooling of slag outside the furnace. In contrast to Dautovo-1, only slags from secondary metallurgical operations were found at the site of Irtyash-1, which aligns with the dominance of secondary copper-working remains at the latter site. The production probably was likely performed on a seasonal basis, the metalworking society was divided into smelters and copper-workers, and the copper supply was likely oriented at both domestic and external (nomadic) markets.

In Situ Synthesis of a Tumor-Microenvironment-Responsive Chemotherapy Drug.

Current chemotherapy still suffers from unsatisfactory therapeutic efficacy, multi-drug resistance, and severe adverse effects, thus necessitating the development of techniques to confine chemotherapy drugs in the tumor microenvironment. Herein, we fabricated nanospheres of mesoporous silica (MS) doped with Cu (MS-Cu) and polyethylene glycol (PEG)-coated MS-Cu (PEG-MS-Cu) as exogenous copper supply systems to tumors. The synthesized MS-Cu nanospheres showed diameters of 30-150 nm with Cu/Si molar ratios of 0.041-0.069. Only disulfiram (DSF) and only MS-Cu nanospheres showed little cytotoxicity in vitro, whereas the combination of DSF and MS-Cu nanospheres showed significant cytotoxicity against MOC1 and MOC2 cells at concentrations of 0.2-1 μg/mL. Oral DSF administration in combination with MS-Cu nanospheres intratumoral or PEG-MS-Cu nanospheres intravenous administration showed significant antitumor efficacy against MOC2 cells in vivo. In contrast to traditional drug delivery systems, we herein propose a system for the in situ synthesis of chemotherapy drugs by converting nontoxic substances into antitumor chemotherapy drugs in a specific tumor microenvironment.

Metal market analysis: an empirical model for copper supply and demand in US market

Metal market analysis: an empirical model for copper supply and demand in US market

Direct smelting process of copper carbonate ore using SiO2 as fluxing agent in electric arc furnace

ABSTRACT The demand for copper, especially from the transportation sector, continues to increase. However, the supply of copper still depends on the primary process production, namely processing or extracting copper from its ore. In addition to copper sulfide ores, copper oxide and carbonate ores are alternative raw materials for copper production, especially in countries with abundant copper reserves, such as Indonesia. This study aims to analyse the effect of SiO2 flux addition in the direct smelting process of mixed oxide and carbonate-type copper ore. This study used an electric arc furnace to carry out the smelting process. The addition of SiO2 varied between 0 and 8 wt% with an interval of 2 wt%. As a result, a direct smelting product was successfully made with a Cu content of 87.01 wt% and Cu recovery of 92.6% when using 4 wt% SiO2. The slag’s main compounds were SiO2, Fe2SiO4, FeSiO3, and Fe3O4.