Global copper cycles in the anthroposphere since the 1960s

Abstract

This study characterizes the copper cycle, quantifying flows, stocks, and losses from 1960 to 2020, and explores global copper supply and demand under six scenarios until 2050. Results show substantial growth in copper production, consumption, and trade over six decades, with around 761 Tg of copper extracted, resulting in 483 Tg in-use stocks. Monte Carlo simulations indicate an 11.4 % uncertainty. These stocks, redistributed globally, form independent secondary resources for each country, with Chile, Peru and Australia holding dominant underground reserves, and China and the United States primarily having above-ground stocks. Targeted policies are needed to close the copper cycle due to current loss rates. Copper shortages are anticipated around 2040, further exacerbated by the development of low-carbon technologies and extended copper product lifespans, but mitigated by alternative technologies and increased recycling rates.