Plastics and climate change—Breaking carbon lock-ins through three mitigation pathways

Abstract

The plastic industry is dependent on fossil fuels in various ways that result in strong “carbon lock-in” throughout the value chain and large and growing CO2 emissions. The industry must decarbonize to reach global net-zero pledges. Although a few initiatives have been launched, they primarily focus on plastic waste. Current research has investigated mitigation potential on different parts of the plastic value chain but remains in silos. Here, we review carbon lock-ins throughout the plastic value chain and identify possible mitigation pathways for each stage of the plastic life cycle. We show how lock-ins are stubbornly entrenched across the domains of production, markets, waste management, industry organization, and governance. Overcoming these carbon lock-ins and achieving zero-carbon targets for the sector by 2050 will require thorough systemic change to how plastics are produced, used, and recycled, including promotion of demand reduction strategies, bio-based feedstocks, and circular economy principles. Strict governance structures, enforceable regulation, and a new proactive and inclusive vision for the low-carbon transition are equally important. The plastic industry is dependent on fossil fuels in various ways that result in strong “carbon lock-in” throughout the value chain and large and growing CO2 emissions. The industry must decarbonize to reach global net-zero pledges. Although a few initiatives have been launched, they primarily focus on plastic waste. Current research has investigated mitigation potential on different parts of the plastic value chain but remains in silos. Here, we review carbon lock-ins throughout the plastic value chain and identify possible mitigation pathways for each stage of the plastic life cycle. We show how lock-ins are stubbornly entrenched across the domains of production, markets, waste management, industry organization, and governance. Overcoming these carbon lock-ins and achieving zero-carbon targets for the sector by 2050 will require thorough systemic change to how plastics are produced, used, and recycled, including promotion of demand reduction strategies, bio-based feedstocks, and circular economy principles. Strict governance structures, enforceable regulation, and a new proactive and inclusive vision for the low-carbon transition are equally important. Global awareness of environmental problems associated with plastics has increased rapidly in recent years. There is now wide agreement on the negative consequences that plastic pollution has on marine environments, the diffusion of microplastics into ecosystems around the world, and the failure of contemporary recycling systems to manage the increasing volumes of plastic waste.1World Economic ForumEllen MacArthur FoundationMcKinsey & CompanyThe New Plastics Economy Rethinking the Future of Plastics. Ellen MacArthur Foundation, 2016Google Scholar, 2The Pew Charitable TrustsSystemiqBreaking the Plastic Wave: A Comprehensive Assessment of Pathways towards Stopping Ocean Plastic Pollution.2020Google Scholar, 3UNEPMarine Plastic Debris and Microplastics: Global Lessons and Research to Inspire Action and Guide Policy Change. United Nations Environment Programme, 2016Google Scholar Plastics have become almost synonymous with the unsustainability of contemporary life: a linear usage of fossil fuels to produce products with short lifespans that are commonly discarded and end up polluting natural environments or in landfills or emitting all embodied carbon via incineration. The current situation has been labeled a plastics crisis4Nielsen T.D. Hasselbalch J. Holmberg K. Stripple J. Politics and the plastic crisis: a review throughout the plastic life cycle.WIREs Energy Environ. 2020; 9https://doi.org/10.1002/wene.360Crossref Scopus (104) Google Scholar that necessitates a systemic change to how plastics are produced and consumed in the economy.5Deere Birkbeck C. Steenmans K. Barrowclough D. 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Sustainability. 2022; 5: 139-148Google Scholar It is thus clear that plastics suffer from a strong case of “carbon lock-in,” i.e., a strong path dependency connected to the use of fossil fuels across many domains. To reach net-zero emission targets by 2050, GHG emissions from the value chains and life cycles of plastics must be rapidly reduced with a combination of measures.10Meys R. Kätelhön A. Bachmann M. Winter B. Zibunas C. Suh S. Bardow A. Achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emission plastics by a circular carbon economy.Science. 2021; 374: 71-76Google Scholar This requires development along new pathways that transform the established structures in the industry. The research literature has contributed with important insights into how global patterns of plastic production and consumption,11Geyer R. Jambeck J.R. Law K.L. Production, use, and fate of all plastics ever made.Sci. Adv. 2017; 3: 5Google Scholar, 12Andrady A.L. 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There is thus a need to bring together and contextualize the factors that together form the strong carbon lock-in of plastics as well as analyze the potential for breaking this lock-in along the pathways that are highlighted as solutions to the plastics crisis. Here, we aim to close the gap by identifying sources of carbon lock-in throughout plastic value chains and across the domains of production, end user markets and demand, waste management, industrial organization, and governance as well as review the potential for the most promising development pathways to break with these carbon lock-ins. This provides a basis for a discussion on the need for a systemic change, which we find is not supported by either industrial investments or policy and governance. This includes promotion of demand reduction strategies, bio-based feedstocks, and circular economy principles, alongside strict governance structures, enforceable regulation, and a new proactive and inclusive vision for transformation. We finally identify remaining key knowledge gaps, outlining a research agenda to support the transition toward a more sustainable system for production and consumption of plastics, which targets zero GHG emissions by 2050. It is hard to imagine a world without plastics. The petrochemical sector, which produces plastics as well as other chemicals and derivatives, directly contributes more than 1% of global GDP.24Oxford EconomicsThe Global Chemical Industry: Catalyzing Growth and Addressing Our World’s Sustainability Challenges. International Council of Chemical Associations (ICCA), 2019Google Scholar Although plastics are used for uncountable purposes, some market sectors stand out: packaging (36% of global plastic demand), building and construction (16%), textiles (14%), and consumer and institutional products (10%); together, these sectors cover more than three-quarters of global plastic demand.11Geyer R. Jambeck J.R. Law K.L. Production, use, and fate of all plastics ever made.Sci. Adv. 2017; 3: 5Google Scholar These highly diverse market sectors have completely different requirements—the term “plastics” thus covers myriad resins, synthetic fibers, and additives, which all have unique properties, although different forms of only a few key polymers make up the majority of all plastics used: polyethylene (PE), polypropylene (PP), polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), and polystyrene (PS). Synthetic fibers are mainly polyester with polyamide, with PP acting as the other main fiber polymer. Plastic production is currently almost entirely based on fossil feedstock, composed primarily of petroleum products and natural gas, but a small share also comes from coal. Global plastic resin production has increased from about 1.7 megatons (Mt) in 1950 to 368 Mt in 2019, with an average annual growth rate of about 3.5% since 2011.25Plastics EuropePlastics – the Facts 2020 (Plastics Europe).2020Google Scholar The growth in plastic production during the past 15 years comprises a 3-fold increase in plastic production in China, while it has remained stagnant in Europe and decreased in Japan, as shown in Figure 1. The annual per capita consumption of plastic resin varies greatly between regions, estimated in 2015 to almost 140 kg in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and Western Europe,26Hsu W.-T. Domenech T. McDowall W. How circular are plastics in the EU? MFA of plastics in the EU and pathways to circularity.Clean. Environ. Syst. 2021; 2: 100004Google Scholar 108 kg in Japan, 36 kg in the rest of Asia, and 16 kg in the Middle East and Africa.27Plastics InsightGlobal Consumption of Plastic Materials by Region (1980-2015). Market Statistics.2016https://www.plasticsinsight.com/global-consumption-plastic-materials-region-1980-2015/Google Scholar This wide range in consumption underscores the potential future growth in plastic consumption worldwide. As various regions grow both in population and in levels of wealth, plastic consumption is expected to increase, particularly for packaging and construction.28IEAThe Future of Petrochemicals: Towards More Sustainable Plastics and Fertilisers (OECD).2018Google Scholar Assuming annual growth levels of 2% or 4% (which are also used in the climate impact scenarios discussed below) would lead to global plastic production levels of 680 or 1240 Mt in 2050, as is shown in Figure 1, which would correspond to total production of resin and fiber being 800 and 1460 Mt, respectively. For comparison, extrapolating the current annual consumption level of 140 kg plastic resin per capita in NAFTA and Western Europe to a projected global population of roughly 10 billion in 2050 results in a global plastic production of 1400 Mt resin (or 1650 Mt resin and fibers), just with the 4% growth scenario, whereas the 2% growth scenario implies a global average annual use of 68 kg per capita, just about half of current NAFTA/EU consumption. The petrochemical sector is responsible for a large environmental burden: 30% of final industrial energy use, 14% of global oil demand, and 9% of global gas demand and driving 16% of global industrial CO2 emissions,29IEAEnergy Technology Perspectives 2020. International Energy Agency, 2020Google Scholar with plastics the largest product category of the industry. There are GHG emissions at all stages of the life cycle of plastics, starting with fugitive methane emissions from upstream oil and gas operations, direct process emissions from chemical reactions and high-temperature heat generation in steam crackers, indirect emissions from energy conversion in the energy sector for polymerization and conversion, to end-of-life (EoL) treatment of products.30Nicholson S.R. Rorrer N.A. Carpenter A.C. Beckham G.T. Manufacturing energy and greenhouse gas emissions associated with plastics consumption.Joule. 2021; 5: 673-686Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF Scopus (29) Google Scholar The carbon footprint of plastics has been estimated to be up to 5 kg CO2 per kilogram of plastic, including on average 2.3 kg CO2 per kilogram of plastic from feedstock production, plastic conversion, and electricity, and 2.7 kg CO2 per kilogram of plastic of carbon being embedded in the material.31Material EconomicsIndustrial Transformation 2050 - Pathways to Net-Zero Emissions from EU Heavy Industry.2019Google Scholar One of the most comprehensive analyses estimated the life cycle emissions of the global production of plastic resin and fibers in 2015 to be 1.8 Gt CO2e, which correspond to an average of 4.2 kg CO2e per kilogram of plastic.8Zheng J. Suh S. Strategies to reduce the global carbon footprint of plastics.Nat. Clim. Change. 2019; 9: 374-378Crossref Scopus (248) Google Scholar This estimate is based on the use of fossil feedstock and the current energy mix and EoL management, the latter of which consists of 58% landfilling, 24% incineration, and 18% recycling. In future development scenarios, the authors found that by 2050, global life cycle emissions of plastics could be as high as 8 Gt CO2e (about 5 kg CO2e per kilogram of plastic), assuming a 4% growth rate and incineration of all plastic waste. The global life cycle emissions of plastic could be considerably lower, about 1 Gt CO2e (1.2 kg CO2e per kilogram of plastic), for a scenario that assumes 2% production growth, 100% renewable energy, bio-based feedstock (sugarcane), and an EoL waste management mix of 44% recycling, 30% incineration, 18% industrial composting, and 2% anaerobic digestion. These scenarios are shown in Figure 2, highlighting the necessity of simultaneously considering the implications of demand growth, feedstocks, EoL, and energy use. The production of plastics, as well as many other industries and value chains, are all connected to various sources of carbon lock-in,32Seto K.C. Davis S.J. Mitchell R.B. Stokes E.C. Unruh G. Ürge-Vorsatz D. Carbon lock-in: types, causes, and policy implications.Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 2016; 41: 425-452Crossref Scopus (295) Google Scholar which create barriers to the mitigation of their climate impact. Carbon lock-in is the “self-perpetuating inertia that is created by large fossil-fuel-based energy systems and that inhibits the emergence of alternative energy technologies”33Unruh G.C. The real stranded assets of carbon lock-in.One Earth. 2019; 1: 399-401Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF Scopus (4) Google Scholar and can be seen as a special case of path dependency in the economy, relying on increasing economies of scope, scale, and networks34Arthur W.B. Increasing Returns and Path Dependence in the Economy. University of Michigan Press, 1994Crossref Google Scholar related to fossil fuel resources. Complex technological systems, therefore, cannot be understood as “a set of discrete technological artifacts but have to be seen as complex systems of technologies embedded in a powerful conditioning social context of public and private institutions”35Unruh G.C. Understanding carbon lock-in.Energy Policy. 2000; 28: 817-830Crossref Scopus (1538) Google Scholar comprising a “techno-institutional complex.” This complex has developed over decades, focused on maximizing returns using fossil resources and globalizing markets for fossil commodities.36Unruh G.C. Carrillo-Hermosilla J. Globalizing carbon lock-in.Energy Policy. 2006; 34: 1185-1197Google Scholar Across energy systems and industrial sectors, GHG emissions are already locked-in for many years to come,37Erickson P. Kartha S. Lazarus M. Tempest K. Assessing carbon lock-in.Environ. Res. Lett. 2015; 10: 084023Google Scholar driven not least by expectations of continued returns and market growth.38van der Meijden G. Smulders S. Carbon lock-in: the role of expectations.Int. Econ. Rev. 2017; 58: 1371-1415Google Scholar Figure 3 is a schematic figure of the five identified carbon lock-ins in the plastic value chains. Upstream production units, such as steam crackers and processing plants, are capital intensive; a large steam cracker can cost several billion US dollars. Much of the infrastructure for producing plastics and other petrochemicals is relatively young, with a global average age of 10–15 years, but facilities remain in service for as long as 30 years—and often even longer in Europe and the United States.28IEAThe Future of Petrochemicals: Towards More Sustainable Plastics and Fertilisers (OECD).2018Google Scholar,39Janipour Z. de Nooij R. Scholten P. Huijbregts M.A.J. de Coninck H. What are sources of carbon lock-in in energy-intensive industry? A case study into Dutch chemicals production.Energy Res. Social Sci. 2020; 60: 101320Crossref Scopus (26) Google Scholar A large degree of the lock-in can be attributed to the underlying physical nature of the chemicals and processes routes: individual processes are typically fed by a single-resource input, have a high degree of material and energy integration, and produce an optimized mix of products; production consists of a large network of interconnected processes. Further, these production processes have significant economies of scale, leading to ever-larger production facilities to retain competitiveness in global markets.40Lieberman M.B. Market growth, economies of scale, and plant size in the chemical processing industries.J. Ind. Econ. 1987; 36: 175-191Crossref Google Scholar Polymer production processes benefit from synergetic advantages because they are fed by a single energy resource (mostly fossil fuel), which provides both the feedstock material and the process energy. Chemical feedstocks account for more than half, and in some studies as high as three-quarters, of total energy inputs to the global chemical sector.28IEAThe Future of Petrochemicals: Towards More Sustainable Plastics and Fertilisers (OECD).2018Google Scholar,41Boulamanti A. Moya J.A. Energy Efficiency and GHG Emissions: Prospective Scenarios for the Chemical and Petrochemical Industry.2017Google Scholar Upstream petrochemical processes, such as refining and steam cracking, are built around access to fossil fuel supplies, i.e., crude oil for refineries or naphtha for steam crackers, with large integrated sites often located close to where petroleum oil or gas is extracted or brought onshore.42Levi P.G. Cullen J.M. Mapping global flows of chemicals: from fossil fuel feedstocks to chemical products.Environ. Sci. Tech. 2018; 52: 1725-1734Crossref PubMed Scopus (92) Google Scholar Petrochemical industries are thus typically organized in clusters where several different companies exchange flows and depend on each other. Process units in petrochemical industries, including steam crackers and other large units, are highly integrated continuous processes operating at very high temperatures and pressures, leading to very high energy demand and associated GHG emissions. These characteristics lead to highly integrated plants, where heat is recovered from processes through exchanger networks, electricity is generated onsite, and water systems are integrated to enable recovery.43Meyers R.A. Handbook of Petrochemicals Production Processes. McGraw-Hill, 2019Google Scholar Material and energy flows are physically locked-in to operations through the integrated design of reaction vessels, process units, heat exchangers, pipelines, valves, sensors, and control systems, making them difficult to retrofit or upgrade once in operation. Production of monomers in steam crackers and other upstream petrochemical processes are designed to produce a tailored recipe of co-products as outputs. This provides a synergistic advantage, making best use of the feedstock and minimizing waste, but leads to physical lock-in for the process, because each product is co-dependent on the continued production of the others. Petroleum refining has traditionally been a prominent source of naphtha and olefins for polymer production. However, recent advancements in drilling and hydraulic fracturing of tight oil and shale formations have increased the availability of wet natural gas, particularly in the United States,44Sicotte D.M. From cheap ethane to a plastic planet: regulating an industrial global production network.Energy Res. Social Sci. 2020; 66: 101479Crossref Scopus (8) Google Scholar leading to the use of natural-gas-based feedstocks in place of more traditional liquids from petroleum processing.45Gupta S. Xu D. Crude-to-chemicals: an opportunity or threat?.Hydrocarbon Process. 2019; 98: 10-13Google Scholar,46Middleton R.S. Gupta R. Hyman J.D. Viswanathan H.S. The shale gas revolution: barriers, sustainability, and emerging opportunities.Appl. Energy. 2017; 199: 88-95Crossref Scopus (168) Google Scholar Anticipation of a more general shift for transport, from fossil fuels to electric vehicles, has prompted the development of new plants which convert directly from crude oil to plastics and other chemicals (see Box 1 for more details on this development). These trends, toward lighter feedstocks and crude-oil-to-chemical plants, go some ways toward decoupling transport fuel production from petrochemicals; however, the vast majority of production capacity still remains locked-in to traditional product mixes.Box 1Crude oil to plastics: The next big thing?While the North American expansion of shale gas production has led to a focus on expanding ethylene and polyethylene production based on ethane, increasing the supply of other key monomers and polymers has relied on other feedstocks. Because plastics and other petrochemicals are expected to grow quicker than demand for petroleum,28IEAThe Future of Petrochemicals: Towards More Sustainable Plastics and Fertilisers (OECD).2018Google Scholar an increasing share of the processed oil is expected to be used for these products. Conventional oil refining produces only a limited volume of naphtha to be used for plastics and other petrochemicals, leading to growing interest in maximizing the production of monomers and platform molecules in “refineries of the future” that fully integrate with the production of plastics and other petrochemicals.47Alabdullah M.A. Gomez A.R. Vittenet J. Bendjeriou-Sedjerari A. Xu W. Abba I.A. Gascon J. A viewpoint on the refinery of the future: catalyst and process challenges.ACS Catal. 2020; 10: 8131-8140Google Scholar This can be implemented through different technology strategies, ranging from modifying both thermal and catalytic cracking of different fractions downstream of the crude distillation at a refinery to bypassing distillation and running the crude oil directly to a steam cracker.48Corma A. Corresa E. Mathieu Y. Sauvanaud L. Al-Bogami S. Al-Ghrami M.S. Bourane A. Crude oil to chemicals: light olefins from crude oil.Catal. Sci. Tech. 2017; 7: 12-46Google Scholar,49Alotaibi F.M. González-Cortés S. Alotibi M.F. Xiao T. Al-Megren H. Yang G. Edwards P.P. Enhancing the production of light olefins from heavy crude oils: turning challenges into opportunities.Catal. Today. 2018; 317: 86-98Google Scholar The latter was implemented already in 2014 by the integrated conglomerate ExxonMobil in their Singapore refinery,50Tullo A.H. The future of oil is in chemicals, not fuels.Chem. Eng. News. 2019; 97: 26-29Google Scholar and they remain one of the stakeholders pushing the crude-to-chemicals agenda.51Birdsall C. The need for change why the industry is looking at crude-to-chemicals.Hydrocarbon Process. 2018; 97: 31-32Google Scholar,52Moore D. The opportunity for greater growth and value considerations for crude-to-chemicals projects.Hydrocarbon Process. 2018; 97: 23-24Google Scholar However, other actors in the industry, from fully integrated oil and gas conglomerates to focused plastics and chemicals producers and specialized engineering firms, are also following this route and developing similar processes.48Corma A. Corresa E. Mathieu Y. Sauvanaud L. Al-Bogami S. Al-Ghrami M.S. Bourane A. Crude oil to chemicals: light olefins from crude oil.Catal. Sci. Tech. 2017; 7: 12-46Google Scholar For example, the planned Saudi Aramco/SABIC complex at Yanbu was designed to make 9 Mt of petrochemicals directly from 400,000 barrels per day of light crude oil. This plant will convert 45% of the oil to monomers and other petrochemicals, which is much higher than the 5%–20% for traditional refineries.50Tullo A.H. The future of oil is in chemicals, not fuels.Chem. Eng. News. 2019; 97: 26-29Google Scholar A wave of investments in crude-based technologies has been seen in China recently. This has been expected because China has the highest level of refining and petrochemical integration globally and, therefore, the largest potential for deployment of crude-based production technologies as well as the largest demand for plastics.28IEAThe Future of Petrochemicals: Towards More Sustainable Plastics and Fertilisers (OECD).2018Google Scholar It is, however, also expected in other regions, such as the Middle East and India.45Gupta S. Xu D. Crude-to-chemicals: an opportunity or threat?.Hydrocarbon Process. 2019; 98: 10-13Google Scholar These fully integrated facilities thus represent a new generation of ties between the fossil fuel and plastics industries and generate another layer of carbon lock-in for plastics production that is likely to last for decades. While the North American expansion of shale gas production has led to a focus on expanding ethylene and polyethylene production based on ethane, increasing the supply of other key monomers and polymers has relied on other feedstocks. Because plastics and other petrochemicals are expected to grow quicker than demand for petroleum,28IEAThe Future of Petrochemicals: Towards More Sustainable Plastics and Fertilisers (OECD).2018Google Scholar an increasing share of the processed oil is expected to be used for these products. Conventional oil refining produces only a limited volume of naphtha to be used for plastics and other petrochemicals, leading to growing interest in maximizing the production of monomers and platform molecules in “refineries of the future” that fully integrate with the production of plastics and other petrochemicals.47Alabdullah M.A. Gomez A.R. Vittenet J. Bendjeriou-Sedjerari A. Xu W. Abba I.A. Gascon J. A viewpoint on the refinery of the future: catalyst and process challenges.ACS Catal. 2020; 10: 8131-8140Google Scholar This can be implemented through different technology strategies, ranging from modifying both thermal and catalytic cracking of different fractions downstream of the crude distillation at a refinery to bypassing distillation and running the crude oil directly to a steam cracker.48Corma A. Corresa E. Mathieu Y. Sauvanaud L. Al-Bogami S. Al-Ghrami M.S. Bourane A. Crude oil to chem