Ending fossil-based growth: Confronting the political economy of petrochemical plastics

Abstract

The expanding petrochemical industry depends on fossil fuels both as feedstock and a source of energy and is at the heart of the intertwined global crises relating to plastics, climate, and toxic emissions. Addressing these crises requires uprooting the deep-seated lock-ins that sustain petrochemical plastics. This perspective identifies lock-ins that stand in the way of ambitious emission reductions and ending plastic pollution. We emphasize that addressing the growing plastic production and consumption requires confronting the political economy of petrochemicals. We put forward key elements needed to address the dual challenges of moving away from the unsustainable production of plastics and drastically reducing emissions from the petrochemical sector and argue for attention to the links between fossil fuels and plastics, which in turn involves challenging entrenched power structures and vested interests linked to the fossil-based plastics economy. A critical step would be ensuring attention to the production of petrochemicals and related upstream issues in the upcoming global plastics treaty. The expanding petrochemical industry depends on fossil fuels both as feedstock and a source of energy and is at the heart of the intertwined global crises relating to plastics, climate, and toxic emissions. Addressing these crises requires uprooting the deep-seated lock-ins that sustain petrochemical plastics. This perspective identifies lock-ins that stand in the way of ambitious emission reductions and ending plastic pollution. We emphasize that addressing the growing plastic production and consumption requires confronting the political economy of petrochemicals. We put forward key elements needed to address the dual challenges of moving away from the unsustainable production of plastics and drastically reducing emissions from the petrochemical sector and argue for attention to the links between fossil fuels and plastics, which in turn involves challenging entrenched power structures and vested interests linked to the fossil-based plastics economy. A critical step would be ensuring attention to the production of petrochemicals and related upstream issues in the upcoming global plastics treaty. Linking together the crises of climate change, plastic pollution, and toxic emissions, the petrochemical industry uses fossil fuels for the production of the molecular building blocks for plastics and other petrochemicals (see Figure 1).1Tickner J. Geiser K. Baima S. Transitioning the chemical industry: the case for addressing the climate, toxics, and plastics crises. Environment.Science and Policy for Sustainable Development. 2021; 63: 4-15https://doi.org/10.1080/00139157.2021.1979857Crossref Google Scholar,2Cabernard L. Pfister S. Oberschelp C. Hellweg S. Growing environmental footprint of plastics driven by coal combustion.Nat. Sustain. 2021; 5: 139-148https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00807-2Crossref Scopus (66) Google Scholar,3Persson L. Almroth B.M.C. Collins C.D. Cornell S. Wit C.A. de Diamond M.L. Fantke P. Hassellöv M. MacLeod M. Ryberg M.W. et al.Outside the Safe Operating Space of the Planetary Boundary for Novel Entities. Environmental Science & Technology, 2022https://doi.org/10.1021/ACS.EST.1C04158Crossref Google Scholar The production processes have a direct climate impact of around 4% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions,4Bauer F. Tilsted J.P. Pfister S. Oberschelp C. Kulionis V. Mapping GHG emissions and prospects for renewable energy in the chemical industry.Current Opinion in Chemical Engineering. 2023; 39100881https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coche.2022.100881Crossref Google Scholar generate 460 Mt of plastics (of which more than 350 Mt end up as plastic waste),5OECD. The OECD Global Plastics Outlook databasehttps://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/environment/data/global-plastic-outlook_c0821f81-enGoogle Scholar and require one-quarter of the Earth’s total carrying capacity for their operation.6Galán-Martín Á. Tulus V. Díaz I. Pozo C. Pérez-Ramírez J. Guillén-Gosálbez G. Sustainability footprints of a renewable carbon transition for the petrochemical sector within planetary boundaries.One Earth. 2021; 4: 565-583https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.04.001Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF Scopus (54) Google Scholar The manufacturing, use, and end-of-life treatment of many petrochemicals are hazardous to humans,7Jephcote C. Brown D. Verbeek T. Mah A. A systematic review and meta-analysis of haematological malignancies in residents living near petrochemical facilities.Environ. Health. 2020; 19 (53–18)https://doi.org/10.1186/s12940-020-00582-1Crossref Google Scholar ecosystems,1Tickner J. Geiser K. Baima S. Transitioning the chemical industry: the case for addressing the climate, toxics, and plastics crises. Environment.Science and Policy for Sustainable Development. 2021; 63: 4-15https://doi.org/10.1080/00139157.2021.1979857Crossref Google Scholar and drive biodiversity loss,8Groh K. vom Berg C. Schirmer K. Tlili A. Anthropogenic chemicals as Underestimated drivers of biodiversity loss: Scientific and societal implications.Environ. Sci. Technol. 2022; 56: 707-710https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.1c08399Crossref PubMed Scopus (24) Google Scholar making petrochemicals a threat to planetary health.9Carney Almroth B. Cornell S.E. Diamond M.L. de Wit C.A. Fantke P. Wang Z. Understanding and addressing the planetary crisis of chemicals and plastics.One Earth. 2022; 5: 1070-1074https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2022.09.012Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF Scopus (0) Google Scholar As the main product segment for the petrochemical industry, plastics alone are associated with 4.5% of global GHG emissions across their life cycle2Cabernard L. Pfister S. Oberschelp C. Hellweg S. Growing environmental footprint of plastics driven by coal combustion.Nat. Sustain. 2021; 5: 139-148https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00807-2Crossref Scopus (66) Google Scholar and have been identified as a principal reason for why the planetary boundary for novel entities is greatly exceeded.3Persson L. Almroth B.M.C. Collins C.D. Cornell S. Wit C.A. de Diamond M.L. Fantke P. Hassellöv M. MacLeod M. Ryberg M.W. et al.Outside the Safe Operating Space of the Planetary Boundary for Novel Entities. Environmental Science & Technology, 2022https://doi.org/10.1021/ACS.EST.1C04158Crossref Google Scholar Petrochemicals, in short, present an urgent sustainability challenge from the local to the global scale. Petrochemical production relies on fossil fuels as both feedstock and energy carrier, and the sector therefore has the highest energy demand among the energy-intensive processing industries.10IEAThe Future of Petrochemicals. International Energy Agency, 2018https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264307414-enCrossref Google Scholar The fact that fossil carbon is used not only as fuel but also forms the material basis for petrochemicals also makes a low-carbon reorientation of the industry a unique challenge compared to sectors that use fossil fuels for energy purposes only, such as energy and transport.11Bataille C. Åhman M. Neuhoff K. Nilsson L.J. Fischedick M. Lechtenböhmer S. Solano-Rodriquez B. Denis-Ryan A. Stiebert S. Waisman H. et al.A review of technology and policy deep decarbonization pathway options for making energy-intensive industry production consistent with the Paris Agreement.J. Clean. Prod. 2018; 187: 960-973https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.03.107Crossref Scopus (239) Google Scholar,12Rissman J. Bataille C. Masanet E. Aden N. Morrow W.R. Zhou N. Elliott N. Dell R. Heeren N. Huckestein B. et al.Technologies and policies to decarbonize global industry: review and assessment of mitigation drivers through 2070.Appl. Energy. 2020; 266114848https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.114848Crossref Google Scholar And unlike fossil fuel use for direct energy supply and transportation, petrochemical production is projected to expand significantly, thereby increasing the demand for fossil fuel feedstocks.13OECDGlobal Plastics Outlook: Policy Scenarios to 2060. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2022https://doi.org/10.1787/aa1edf33-enCrossref Google Scholar,14B.P Energy Outlook 2022. BP. 2022.; Google Scholar Accordingly, the International Energy Agency points to the prospects of petrochemicals becoming the biggest driver of oil demand growth in this decade.10IEAThe Future of Petrochemicals. International Energy Agency, 2018https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264307414-enCrossref Google Scholar,15IEAOil 2021. International Energy Agency, 2021Google Scholar To capture opportunities implied by the expectations of increased petrochemical use, leading producers have invested massively in new fossil-based production in recent years.16Bauer F. Fontenit G. Plastic dinosaurs – Digging deep into the accelerating carbon lock-in of plastics.Energy Pol. 2021; 156112418https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112418Crossref Google Scholar The growth in petrochemicals is underpinned by a political economy of deep-seated carbon lock-ins and tight connections between the fossil fuel, chemicals, and plastics industries.16Bauer F. Fontenit G. Plastic dinosaurs – Digging deep into the accelerating carbon lock-in of plastics.Energy Pol. 2021; 156112418https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112418Crossref Google Scholar,17Mah A. Future-proofing capitalism: the Paradox of the circular economy for plastics.Glob. Environ. Polit. 2021; 21: 121-142https://doi.org/10.1162/glep_a_00594Crossref Scopus (33) Google Scholar,18Mah A. Plastic Unlimited: How Corporations Are Fuelling the Ecological Crisis and what We Can Do about it. Polity Press, 2022Google Scholar,19Bauer F. Nielsen T.D. Nilsson L.J. Palm E. Ericsson K. Fråne A. Cullen J. Plastics and climate change—breaking carbon lock-ins through three mitigation pathways.One Earth. 2022; 5: 361-376https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2022.03.007Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF Google Scholar,20Janipour Z. de Nooij R. Scholten P. Huijbregts M.A. de Coninck H. What are sources of carbon lock-in in energy-intensive industry? A case study into Dutch chemicals production.Energy Res. Social Sci. 2020; 60101320https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2019.101320Crossref Google Scholar,21Janipour Z. de Gooyert V. Huijbregts M. de Coninck H. Industrial clustering as a barrier and an enabler for deep emission reduction: a case study of a Dutch chemical cluster.Clim. Pol. 2022; 22: 320-338https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2022.2025755Crossref Google Scholar These ties go back to the origin of the industry and are not only material in the form of integrated production facilities but are also institutional, organizational, and economic. Large multinational companies dominating the industry have applied a shared knowledge base to engage in activities ranging from fossil fuel extraction to plastics manufacturing in consolidated global production networks, oftentimes in integrated industrial facilities and clusters,22Bennett S.J. Implications of climate change for the petrochemical industry: mitigation measures and feedstock transitions.in: Chen W.Y. Seiner J. Suzuki T. Lackner M. Handbook of Climate Change Mitigation. Springer US, New York, NY2012: 319-357https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4419-7991-9Google Scholar,23Tilsted J.P. Mah A. Nielsen T.D. Finkill G. Bauer F. Petrochemical transition narratives: selling fossil fuel solutions in a decarbonizing world.Energy Res. Social Sci. 2022; 94102880https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102880Crossref Google Scholar,24Sicotte D.M. From cheap ethane to a plastic planet: regulating an industrial global production network.Energy Res. Soc. Sci. 2020; 66101479https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2020.101479Crossref Google Scholar,25Verbeek T. Mah A. Integration and isolation in the global petrochemical industry: a multi-scalar corporate network analysis.Econ. Geogr. 2020; 96: 363-387https://doi.org/10.1080/00130095.2020.1794809Crossref Google Scholar,26Rosenberg N. Chemical engineering as a general purpose technology.in: Rosenberg N. Schumpeter and the Endogeneity of Technology. 2000: 79-104Google Scholar,27Tilsted J.P. Bauer F. Connected We Stand: Lead Firm Ownership Ties in the Global Petrochemical Industry.2023https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4363914Crossref Google Scholar and the trend continues to this day. For example, the oil major Saudi Aramco and the chemical giant Dow have, supported by public finance, recently started the joint operation of the Sadara complex, the world’s largest petrochemical facility, locking in capital, infrastructure, and organizations in continued fossil dependence for decades.28Skovgaard J. Finkill G. Bauer F. Åhman M. Nielsen T.D. Finance for fossils – the role of public financing in expanding petrochemicals.Global Environ. Change. 2023; 80102657https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102657Crossref Google Scholar The connections and lock-ins that characterize the petrochemical industry make it of central concern for the global energy transition and the need to phase out fossil fuels.29Howard C. Beagley J. Eissa M. Horn O. Kuhl J. Miller J. Narayan S. Smith R. Thickson W. Why we need a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty.Lancet Planet. Health. 2022; 6: e777-e778https://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00222-4Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF PubMed Scopus (0) Google Scholar,30IEANet Zero by 2050 - A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector. International Energy Agency, 2021Google Scholar,31SEI, IISD, ODI, E3G, UNEPThe Production Gap Report 2021.2021Google Scholar Addressing the full scale of the socio-ecological crises associated with petrochemicals will require significant reductions in virgin petrochemical plastic flows and attention to upstream issues from extraction of fossil fuels to polymer production. In this perspective, we call for and identify possible supply-side interventions to address the overall supply of (virgin) plastics and other petrochemicals as vital complements to plastic pollution reduction strategies focused on waste management and recycling. Limiting supply, however, is not possible without addressing the political economy of petrochemicals and its defining lock-ins, i.e., the technological, institutional, and behavioral phenomena that collectively hinder transformative change. It requires confronting the entrenched power structures and vested interests that support the existing petroleum-chemical-plastic nexus, centering social contestation and struggles for environmental and climate justice in the discussion of petrochemical transitions. Otherwise, effective and just upstream measures that can drive a necessary shift to alternative feedstocks and renewable energy and control the production of (and demand for) primary plastics will not come about. By exploring the political economy of petrochemicals, mapping out a range of critical lock-ins, and pointing to pathways for transformation and a just transition beyond fossil fuels, this perspective offers a critical intervention coinciding with the negotiations on a new global treaty for plastics and efforts to step up progress toward the Paris Agreement climate goals. The chemical industry emerged in Europe in the 19th century, supplying synthetic dyes and other chemicals to the rapidly growing textile industry.32Aftalion F. A History of the International Chemical Industry. Chemical Heritage Press, 2001Google Scholar In the early 20th century, the German chemical industry was a dominant force, with German firms being the first to commercially produce key chemicals such as ammonia, ethylene, methanol, and vinyl chloride—all from coal.33Spitz P.H. Petrochemicals: The Rise of an Industry. Wiley, 1988Google Scholar The shift toward oil and gas and the modern petrochemical industry was largely a result of the efforts of the American chemical industry, which saw the growing oil market as a key resource opportunity on which it focused research, development, and education.34Arora A. Landau R. Rosenberg N. Chemical Heritage Foundation.in: Chemicals and long-term economic growth: insights from the chemical industry. Wiley, 1998Google Scholar Supported by strong interventions by the US government, the industry grew rapidly and developed technologies that, in the post-war era, were exported to countries needing to rebuild their industrial infrastructures (Germany, the UK, and Japan), leading to a remarkable shift toward petrochemistry by the early 1960s.35Hanieh A. Petrochemical Empire.N. Left Rev. 2021; : 25-51Google Scholar Governments all over the world continued supporting the industry as it was a strong contributor to economic growth as demand for its products—not least different plastics—was created, diffused, and inflated. This support took different forms and shapes, from nationalization of parts of the industry after the energy crises of the 1970s, to state-initiated cartels and other forms of subsidies such as tax breaks and access to low-cost investment capital through public financial institutions.32Aftalion F. A History of the International Chemical Industry. Chemical Heritage Press, 2001Google Scholar Over decades, these developments solidified lock-ins across many domains involving both firms and governments, including research, education, finance, and regulation.19Bauer F. Nielsen T.D. Nilsson L.J. Palm E. Ericsson K. Fråne A. Cullen J. Plastics and climate change—breaking carbon lock-ins through three mitigation pathways.One Earth. 2022; 5: 361-376https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2022.03.007Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF Google Scholar Mirroring expectations of continued economic and population growth, the production of petrochemicals and plastics is projected to expand enormously.10IEAThe Future of Petrochemicals. International Energy Agency, 2018https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264307414-enCrossref Google Scholar,14B.P Energy Outlook 2022. BP. 2022.; Google Scholar,15IEAOil 2021. International Energy Agency, 2021Google Scholar The OECD, for example, expects plastic use to almost triple by 2060 in their recent baseline projection.13OECDGlobal Plastics Outlook: Policy Scenarios to 2060. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, 2022https://doi.org/10.1787/aa1edf33-enCrossref Google Scholar And growing production implies growing environmental impacts along multiple planetary boundariess.6Galán-Martín Á. Tulus V. Díaz I. Pozo C. Pérez-Ramírez J. Guillén-Gosálbez G. Sustainability footprints of a renewable carbon transition for the petrochemical sector within planetary boundaries.One Earth. 2021; 4: 565-583https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.04.001Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF Scopus (54) Google Scholar,36Meng F. Wagner A. Kremer A.B. Kanazawa D. Leung J.J. Goult P. Guan M. Herrmann S. Speelman E. Sauter P. et al.Planet-compatible pathways for transitioning the chemical industry.Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. 2023; 120e2218294120https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2218294120Crossref Scopus (2) Google Scholar Already today, practically all chemical production transgresses planetary boundaries—primarily boundaries related to climate change but also boundaries related to biosphere integrity and ocean acidification.37Tulus V. Pérez-Ramírez J. Guillén-Gosálbez G. Planetary metrics for the absolute environmental sustainability assessment of chemicals.Green Chem. 2021; 23: 9881-9893https://doi.org/10.1039/D1GC02623BCrossref Google Scholar Plastics specifically are central to breaking the planetary boundary of novel entity diffusion in global ecosystems through their widespread pollution,3Persson L. Almroth B.M.C. Collins C.D. Cornell S. Wit C.A. de Diamond M.L. Fantke P. Hassellöv M. MacLeod M. Ryberg M.W. et al.Outside the Safe Operating Space of the Planetary Boundary for Novel Entities. Environmental Science & Technology, 2022https://doi.org/10.1021/ACS.EST.1C04158Crossref Google Scholar and they also interact with processes impacting multiple other planetary boundaries.9Carney Almroth B. Cornell S.E. Diamond M.L. de Wit C.A. Fantke P. Wang Z. Understanding and addressing the planetary crisis of chemicals and plastics.One Earth. 2022; 5: 1070-1074https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2022.09.012Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF Scopus (0) Google Scholar,38Villarrubia-Gómez P. Cornell S.E. Almroth B.C. Ryberg M. Eriksen M. Plastics Pollution and the Planetary Boundaries Framework.2022Google Scholar At the same time, the purported socio-economics benefits of continued growth are being questioned. Recent research points to a global trend of “noxious deindustrialization,”39Feltrin L. Mah A. Brown D. Noxious deindustrialization: Experiences of precarity and pollution in Scotland’s petrochemical capital.Environ. Plan. C Politics Space. 2022; 40: 950-969https://doi.org/10.1177/23996544211056328Crossref Google Scholar where fenceline communities no longer significantly benefit from the industry in terms of jobs and public services while continuing to be on the receiving end of negative health and environmental impacts, and advocacy organizations and think tanks flag the prospects of stranded assets.40Holzman L. Romo J. Plastics: The Last Straw for Big Oil? As You Sow, 2021Google Scholar,41Bond K. The Future’s Not in Plastics. Carbon Tracker Initiative.2020https://carbontracker.org/reports/the-futures-not-in-plastics/Google Scholar Research has explored alternatives to the ongoing growth in global petrochemical production, analyzing the sustainability potential of different types of change to current patterns of production and consumption under various scenarios. These scenarios include carbon capture and utilization or storage, renewable-based feedstocks (i.e., bio- or green hydrogen-based), direct air capture (as source of carbon and to compensate for unabated GHG emissions), improved plastic recycling, and electrification of chemical production processes.4Bauer F. Tilsted J.P. Pfister S. Oberschelp C. Kulionis V. Mapping GHG emissions and prospects for renewable energy in the chemical industry.Current Opinion in Chemical Engineering. 2023; 39100881https://doi.org/10.1016/j.coche.2022.100881Crossref Google Scholar,36Meng F. Wagner A. Kremer A.B. Kanazawa D. Leung J.J. Goult P. Guan M. Herrmann S. Speelman E. Sauter P. et al.Planet-compatible pathways for transitioning the chemical industry.Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. 2023; 120e2218294120https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2218294120Crossref Scopus (2) Google Scholar,42Kätelhön A. Meys R. Deutz S. Suh S. Bardow A. Climate change mitigation potential of carbon capture and utilization in the chemical industry.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2019; 166: 11187-11194https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1821029116Crossref Scopus (0) Google Scholar,43Bauer F. Kulionis V. Oberschelp C. Pfister S. Tilsted J.P. Finkill G. Petrochemicals and Climate Change: Tracing Globally Growing Emissions and Key Blind Spots in a Fossil-Based Industry. Lund University, 2022Google Scholar Each of these paths, however, comes with a new set of concerns, limiting its feasibility. Particularly, there is a large risk of shifting the burden of environmental impacts to new domains, such as land use change, biodiversity loss, and increasing competition for scarce biomass resources for industrial purposes. For recycling, constraints are also socio-economic and thermodynamic.44Sicotte D.M. Seamon J.L. Solving the plastics Problem: moving the U.S. From recycling to reduction.Soc. Nat. Resour. 2021; 34: 393-402https://doi.org/10.1080/08941920.2020.1801922Crossref Google Scholar,45Cullen J.M. Circular economy: Theoretical Benchmark or perpetual motion Machine?.J. Ind. Ecol. 2017; 21: 483-486https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12599Crossref Scopus (0) Google Scholar,46Hauschild M.Z. Bjørn A. Pathways to sustainable plastics.Nat. Sustain. 2023; 1https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-023-01069-wCrossref Google Scholar Moreover, these pathways mostly focus on climate change and global boundaries for environmental impact, lending less attention to the consequences of plastic pollution for human and ecological health. Given these concerns, it is for good reason that scenarios that identify pathways toward chemical production within planetary boundaries typically involve a significant reduction of plastic use compared to current demand forecasts.6Galán-Martín Á. Tulus V. Díaz I. Pozo C. Pérez-Ramírez J. Guillén-Gosálbez G. Sustainability footprints of a renewable carbon transition for the petrochemical sector within planetary boundaries.One Earth. 2021; 4: 565-583https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.04.001Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF Scopus (54) Google Scholar,36Meng F. Wagner A. Kremer A.B. Kanazawa D. Leung J.J. Goult P. Guan M. Herrmann S. Speelman E. Sauter P. et al.Planet-compatible pathways for transitioning the chemical industry.Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA. 2023; 120e2218294120https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2218294120Crossref Scopus (2) Google Scholar,47Lau W.W.Y. Shiran Y. Bailey R.M. Cook E. Stuchtey M.R. Koskella J. Velis C.A. Godfrey L. Boucher J. Murphy M.B. et al.Evaluating scenarios toward zero plastic pollution.Science. 2020; 369: 1455-1461https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aba9475Crossref PubMed Google Scholar,48Bachmann M. Zibunas C. Hartmann J. Tulus V. Suh S. Guillén-Gosálbez G. Bardow A. Towards circular plastics within planetary boundaries.Nat. Sustain. 2023; 6: 599-610https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-01054-9Crossref Scopus (0) Google Scholar The centrality of reduced use places issues of growth and distribution at the heart of the discussion on petrochemical plastics. The pursuit of growth, revenue, and profits motivates and structures decisions around investments, lobbying, and public-relations activities49Ford A. Newell P. Regime resistance and accommodation: toward a neo-Gramscian perspective on energy transitions.Energy Res. Soc. Sci. 2021; 79102163https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2021.102163Crossref Google Scholar,50Christophers B. Fossilised capital: price and profit in the energy transition.New Polit. Econ. 2021; 27: 146-159https://doi.org/10.1080/13563467.2021.1926957Crossref Google Scholar and shape the actions of industrial and state actors alike.51Newell P. Paterson M. A climate for business: global warming, the state and capital.Rev. Int. Polit. Econ. 1998; 5: 679-703https://doi.org/10.1080/096922998347426Crossref Google Scholar,52Babić M. Dixon A.D. Decarbonising states as owners.New Polit. Econ. 2022; 0: 1-20https://doi.org/10.1080/13563467.2022.2149722Crossref Google Scholar While scholars have called for a cap to global plastics production53Bergmann M. Almroth B.C. Brander S.M. Dey T. Green D.S. Gundogdu S. Krieger A. Wagner M. Walker T.R. A global plastic treaty must cap production.Science. 2022; 376: 469-470https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abq0082Crossref Google Scholar and civil society actors campaign under the slogan of “#turnoffthetap,”54Wong V. https://turnofftheplastictap.comDate: 2022Google Scholar incumbents seek to safeguard their investments and ensure future operations and returns, promising sustainable futures mainly through technological solutions.23Tilsted J.P. Mah A. Nielsen T.D. Finkill G. Bauer F. Petrochemical transition narratives: selling fossil fuel solutions in a decarbonizing world.Energy Res. Social Sci. 2022; 94102880https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2022.102880Crossref Google Scholar Such promises of technical fixes work both as defences for existing investments, carrying out a system-conserving function, and as attempts to legitimize new avenues for growth in reference to important societal problems.55Markusson N. Dahl Gjefsen M. Stephens J.C. Tyfield D. The political economy of technical fixes: the (mis)alignment of clean fossil and political regimes.Energy Res. Social Sci. 2017; 23: 1-10https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2016.11.004Crossref Scopus (0) Google Scholar To break carbon lock-in, policy and research must therefore grapple with core issues of political economy, confronting the questions of who benefits and who suffers from which petrochemical futures, challenging the power of vested interests. The concept of lock-in captures how “the inertia of technologies, institutions, and behaviors individually and interactively limit the rate of (…) systemic transformations by a path-dependent process”56Seto K.C. Davis S.J. Mitchell R.B. Stokes E.C. Unruh G. Ürge-Vorsatz D. Carbon lock-in: types, causes, and policy implications.Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 2016; 41: 425-452https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-110615-085934Crossref Scopus (399) Google Scholar (see Box 1). Lock-ins are, however, not inescapable phenomena that solely occur as unintended side effects of path-dependency, i.e., inevitably shaped and constrained by previous decisions and events; rather, lock-ins are also actively strengthened and deepened through coordinated efforts by actors with interests in so doing.16Bauer F. Fontenit G. Plastic dinosaurs – Digging deep into the accelerating carbon lock-in of plastics.Energy Pol. 2021; 156112418https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112418Crossref Google Scholar,19Bauer F. Nielsen T.D. Nilsson L.J. Palm E. Ericsson K. Fråne A. Cullen J. Plastics and climate change—breaking carbon lock-ins through three mitigation pathways.One Earth. 2022; 5: 361-376https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2022.03.007Abstract Full Text Full Text PDF Google Scholar The prospects for breaking up existing lock-ins through political interventions thus depend both on the credibility of the long-term direction of an economy-wide transformation away from fossil fuels57van der Meijden G. Smulders S. Carbon lock-in: the role of expectations.Int. Econ. Rev. 2017; 58: 1371-1415https://doi.org/10.1111/iere.12255Crossref Google Scholar and the power of short-term interventions to reshape the current investment cycle.58Bertram C. Johnson N. Luderer G. R