Bank Loan Supply Research Articles

Peníze v bankovním systému analýza bilancí centrálních bank

Crisis development in some banking systems has been associated with large-scale aid programs, which has been heavily involved with the central bank's impact on the very rapid growth of their balance sheets. The banking system in the Czech Republic in the period 2005-2015 has not undergone any crisis. Significant changes in the balance of the Czech National Bank were associated with foreign exchange interventions against the Czech crown. High liquidity determines almost zero demand of banks for loans from the central bank. The Czech National Bank is in the "debtor" position in relation to banks. Central banks in the European Monetary Union and the United States are in the opposite position of the creditors. The dramatic growth in bank reserves had no significant inflationary pressures. The main reason is careful supply of bank loans. All this confirms that issuing money into the economy is associated especially with commercial banks' lending to non-bank subjects. Central bank issues money only to the banking system.

Bank loan supply responses to Federal Reserve emergency liquidity facilities

Abstract The Federal Reserve injected unprecedented liquidity into banks during the recent crisis through the discount window and Term Auction Facility. We examine the use and effectiveness of these facilities. We find that recipient banks increased their lending overall, both short- and long-term, and in most loan categories. The facilities resulted in enhanced lending at expanding banks and reduced declines at contracting banks. Small banks increased small business lending and large banks increased large business lending. There were no significant changes in loan quality or loan contract terms by either large or small banks.

Monetary policy, bank lending and corporate investment

The purpose of this study is to shed light on the chain of causality from macroeconomic financial policy to the microeconomic investment function. Concretely, we aim to provide an in-depth analysis of the relationships between the monetary policy of central banks, the loan policy of commercial banks, and the investment behavior of firms. We focus on countries that conduct their monetary policy under the inflation-targeting framework. Our empirical analysis with data from Germany, Switzerland and Thailand provides several new insights. First, after controlling for the US monetary policy, the monetary policy in Germany and Thailand appears to influence the banks' lending rate in the short run (i.e. within two months), whereas the monetary policy in Switzerland seems to be ineffective at influencing the banks' lending rate in the short run. Second, our results show that the banks' lending rate has a negative effect on their loans and that this negative effect is weakened by their growth opportunities. Third, we find that the supply of bank loans plays a more pivotal role in determining firms' investment than the lending rate. Last but not least, we document that neither the lending rate nor the loan-to-assets ratio moderates the sensitivity of the firms' investment to growth opportunities.

Collateral and Bank Credit – a Puzzle

The impact of firms characteristics on bank debt financing has always been a field of conflicts among economists (e.g. trade-off theory vs. pecking order theory). The pecking order theory predicts that firms holding more tangible assets are less prone to asymmetric information problems and reduce the agency cost. Generally, the supply of bank loans is expected to be higher for firms with higher collateral. In the empirical literature, this relationship is not always confirmed. We analyse this phenomenon from three points of view: meta-analysis of literature, country level data and case of Poland. This study provides a systematic analysis of the empirical literature on the usage of bank debt by conducting a meta-analysis. In particular, the problem of publication selection bias is discussed. We explore the sources of heterogeneity among studies including moderator variables in random- and fixed effects regressions. Our results indicate that there is an evidence of publication selection. Based on country level data we conclude that the impact of collateral on bank credit is negative. For Polish case we find that the impact of collateral on debt is positive, except for the subsample of large enterprises.

The impact of the liquidity coverage ratio on money creation: A stock-flow based dynamic approach

This paper examines money creation process of the banking system when it is complying with the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR). A stock-flow based dynamic model of credit creation process is developed in which the commercial bank supplies loans to the firm. The change of credit is governed by the bank lending and the repayment of the existing loans, where the equilibrium stock of credit could be attained once the lending is exactly equal to the repayment. However, the supply of bank loans is restricted by both the reserve requirement set by the central bank and the LCR prescribed by the banking authority; and, as a result, money creation must be affected by all these regulations. The bank loan supply under the constraint of the required liquidity buffer might have different prescriptions under different economic scenarios, and would eventually result in an equilibrium monetary stock correspondingly. The final formula of money multiplier is derived respectively as the rational response of the bank to the corresponding regulation. When the reserve requirement is tighter than the LCR, the money multiplier has the same expression of that in the prevailing fractional reserve regime. Yet when the situation departs from this regime, the determinants of the money multiplier are found to be associated with the parameters that characterize the behavior of banks subject to the regulation and of the private sector rather than those monetary structural factors. It is noteworthy that there may be a credit contraction and even a significant reduction in money multiplier when the bank is regulated by the LCR. This novel perspective on credit creation of the banking system also offers us an insightful understanding on the impacts of banking regulations on the stability of the banking system and suggests a new guide tool for designing them.

The Transmission Mechanism of Credit Support Policies in the Euro Area

We use an original monthly dataset of 131 individual euro area banks to examine the effectiveness and transmission mechanism of the Eurosystem?s credit support policies since the start of the crisis. First, we show that these policies have indeed been succesful in stimulating the credit ?ow of banks to the private sector. Second, we ?nd support for the lending view of monetary transmission. Speci?cally, the policies have had a greater impact on loan supply of banks that are more constrained to obtain unsecured external funding, i.e. small banks (size effect), banks with less liquid balance sheets (liquidity effect), banks that depend more on wholesale funding (retail effect) and low-capitalized banks (capital effect). The role of bank capital is, however, ambiguous. Besides the above favorable direct e¤ect on loan supply, lower levels of bank capitalization at the same time mitigate the size, retail and liquidity effects of the policies. The drag on the other channels has even been dominant during tthe sample period, i.e. better capitalized banks have on average responded more to the credit support policies of the Eurosystem as a result of more favourable size, retail and liquidity effects.

External Financing and Economic Activity in the Euro Area: Why are Bank Loans Special?

Using a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) identified with a mix of sign and zero restrictions, we show that a restrictive bank loan supply shock has a strong and persistent negative impact on real GDP and the GDP deflator. This result comes about even though flows of other sources of financing, such as equity and debt securities, expand strongly and act as a spare tire for the reduction in bank loans. We show that this result can be rationalized by a recently revived view of banking, which holds that banks increase the nominal purchasing power of the economy when they create additional deposits in the act of lending. Consequently, our findings indicate that a substitution of bank loans by other sources of financing might have negative macroeconomic repercussions.

Do Banks Lend Less in Uncertain Times?

We study the development of bank lending in the USA after four large jumps in uncertainty using an event study approach. We find that more liquid banks slow down and lend less after a surge in uncertainty. Lending by smaller banks is also less responsive to increases in uncertainty, which points to an increased importance of bank–customer relationships. For capitalization, we find mixed evidence. These heterogeneities across banks suggest that declines in bank lending following increases in uncertainty result at least partly from a reduced supply of bank loans.

Determinantes de longo prazo do crédito no Brasil: Liquidez versus Capital Bancário

O presente estudo aborda a questão do canal de crédito bancário no Brasil, com dados agregados mensais, do período 2004:12 a 2013:11. Estima VECM para identificar as funções de demanda e oferta de empréstimos bancários, de longo prazo, através de testes de restrições de exclusão e de exogeneidade aplicados às relações de cointegração obtidas. Este trabalho amplia resultados obtidos anteriormente (Mello e Pisu, 2010) para o Brasil, mostrando que o oferta de empréstimos depende do spread da taxa de juros e que, para o período estudado, o estoque de crédito bancário contem informações sobre a trajetória futura da inflação. Ademais, realiza-se teste de robustez em relação aos resultados obtidos em Bezerra et al. (2016), utilizando a medida de capital bancário inicialmente usada em Mello e Pisu (2010)e observa-se que tanto essa variável como a liquidez bancária apresentam forte significância estatística.

The Impact of Bank Shocks on Firm-Level Outcomes and Bank Risk-Taking

We examine the impact of bank-loan supply shocks on firm outcomes and bank risk-taking employing bank-firm matched credit information from Belgium for the period 2002-2012. Towards this end, we develop and estimate cross-sectional measures of bank-loan supply shocks. We find that firms borrowing from banks with negative supply shocks exhibit slower growth and investment, and a delayed negative response of employment. Banks faced with positive supply shocks show risk-taking behaviour at the extensive margin. Our estimated bank-loan shocks correlate positively with interbank liabilities growth and an alternative indicator of bank-loan supply, i.e. bank lending standards.

Full Reserve Banking: More ‘Cranks’ Than ‘Brave Heretics’

This paper analyses the main features and policy implications of full reserve banking (FRB) proposals. It argues that whilst FRB advocates recognize the essential endogeneity of the money creation process, they have failed to understand the Post Keynesian and monetary circuitist analyses of endogenous money, which leads them to analytical errors, including: lending activity creates seigniorage privilege for commercial banks; inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon; the inability of distinguishing the actual from the planned supply of bank loans, and money to be spent from money hoarded; and the debt-free money proposition. The paper also argues that an FRB system is likely to exacerbate financial instability for several reasons, including: the obsessive focus on commercial banks, while ignoring non-bank financial intermediaries and shadow banking; a blind fascination for the safety and security of the payment system, with little consideration for the financing needs of capitalist economies; and an inherent deflationary bias. Furthermore, FRB arrangements would soon be undermined by the development of alternative near-moneys. Finally, FRB will nullify the automatic stabilisers of fiscal policy and lead to a de facto dominance of monetary policy and unelected central bankers over fiscal policy and democratic decision making.

To what extent did the economic stimulus package influence bank lending and corporate investment decisions? Evidence from China

Using a panel of Chinese firms over the period 2003–2013, we show that, from the supply-side perspective, as a result of the implementation of the economic stimulus package in China, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) received more bank loans and invested more than non-SOEs. We further find that after the implementation of the economic stimulus package, bank lending became less responsive to firm profitability, and firm investments became less responsive to investment opportunities for SOEs, non-SOEs from favoured industries and regions, and non-SOEs with political connections. Overall, our findings support the view that the stimulus package and the associated increase in bank loan supply in China resulted in more resources being allocated to SOEs.

Does bank loan supply affect the supply of equity capital? Evidence from new share issuance and withdrawal

Abstract We examine the hypothesis that fluctuations in the aggregate supply of bank loans influence the supply of new equity capital. Using residual lending standards as a clean measure of aggregate loan supply and a VAR framework to aid identification, we find that a one-standard-deviation shock to lending standards results in 15% fewer IPOs. Shocks elicit strong responses from IPO-firms that are highly dependent on external capital and increase the number of withdrawals, strengthening the interpretation that the above is driven by changes in the supply of equity. Our results suggest that credit conditions are important to a well-functioning IPO market.

Deflation, bank credit growth, and non-performing loans: Evidence from Japan

In this paper, I examine the link between bank credit growth and non-performing loans in an economy with deflationary pressures. Using panel OLS regressions and two-step GMM regressions, I find evidence for the time-varying relationship between bank credit growth and non-performing loans in a sample of 82 publicly listed commercial banks in Japan during the period 1993–2013. I show that bank credit growth positively correlates with non-performing loans prior to the onset of the global financial crisis of 2007 but negatively correlates with non-performing loans afterwards. I find evidence to support the notion that large banks drive the observed effects of credit growth on non-performing loans. In addition, credit growth and non-performing loans have no effect on profitability. Overall, the findings suggest that while the increase in the supply of bank loans increases the level of non-performing loans, it does not lead to higher profitability.

On the Differential Impact of Securitization on Bank Lending During the Financial Crisis

This paper analyzes the effect of securitization on bank loan supply over the 2001 to 2013 period using a large sample of Eurozone banks. We document that an increase in banks' ABS issuances positively correlates with bank loan supply before the 2007-08 financial crisis but not afterwards. The underlying collateral of the securitization is correlated with changes of loan supply of the respective type. The main motivation for banks to issue ABS and covered bonds is their use as a funding tool. Since the required skills are similar, ABS issuers were better able to switch to covered bonds, allowing them to gain from the higher liquidity of covered bonds during and right after the financial crisis. We do not find evidence of ABS issuances increasing bank risk.

Crisis Transmission in the Global Banking Network

We study the transmission of financial sector shocks across borders through international bank connections. For this purpose, we use data on long-term interbank loans among more than 6,000 banks during 1997-2012 to construct a yearly global network of interbank exposures. We estimate the effect of direct (first-degree) and indirect (second-degree) exposures to countries experiencing systemic banking crises on bank profitability and loan supply. We find that direct exposures to crisis countries squeeze banks' profit margins, thereby reducing their returns. Indirect exposures to crisis countries enhance this effect, while indirect exposures to non-crisis countries mitigate it. Furthermore, crisis exposures have real effects in that they reduce banks' supply of domestic and cross-border loans. Our results, based on a large global sample, support the notion that interconnected financial systems facilitate shock transmission.

Bank Loan Supply in the Financial Crisis: Evidence from the Role of Political Connection

We investigate the changes in bank loan supply during the 2007–2008 financial crisis, with particular focus on the influence of political connections. We demonstrate that although political connections can help firms obtain lower loan rates during the precrisis period, such benefits disappear in the postcrisis period. Moreover, the loan acceptance ratio for politically connected firms is enhanced in the postcrisis period, especially for the politically connected firms with high risks. Evidence reveals that the focus of the benefits for politically connected firms is more likely to shift from the loan rate to the loan acceptance ratio during the postcrisis period.

Моделиране на търсенето и предлагането на кредити в България

Econometric modelling of demand and supply of bank loans in Bulgaria, introduced in this scientific paper, can help not only decision makers in the public and private sector, but can also support researchers and analysts in revealing the determinants of lending, being a major factor for the economy dynamics. The bank loans’ demand and supply determinants are parameterized using the Johansen (1988) and the two-step Engle and Granger (1987) approaches to cointegration and error correction dynamic modelling. The main results reveal that the demand for loans in the long run depends mainly on the economic activity, capital inflows, deposits and loans to deposits ratio of the non-financial sector. In the short term these determinants are complemented by imports of goods and services. The supply of loans, however, in all time frames is influenced primarily by changes in banks’ liquidity, net interest income, capital adequacy and the producer prices dynamics, but in the long term consumer prices, market concentration and foreign ownership are supplementing the supply of loans’ drivers.

Bank Capital Regulation: Theory, Empirics, and Policy

Minimum equity ratio requirements promote bank stability, but compliance must be measured credibly and requirements must be commensurate with risk. A mix of higher book equity requirements, a carefully designed contingent capital requirement, cash reserve requirements, and other measures, would address prudential objectives better than book equity requirements alone. Basel III’s ill-defined liquidity ratios, book capital ratios, and internal models of risk must be replaced by a system of credible, incentive-robust rules that combine valid concepts with objective, market-based information into a simplified and credible regulatory process. Raising minimum capital requirements will not be socially costless; bank profitability, share prices, and loan supply are likely to suffer. But avoiding the dramatic consequences of banking crises would more than repay those costs.

Global corporate bond issuance: What role for US quantitative easing?

The paper analyses the link between global corporate bond issuance and US quantitative easing (QE). It finds that purchases and holdings of MBS and Treasuries by the Fed have a strong impact on gross corporate bond issuance across advanced and emerging economies. The results are robust to a large number of checks, including controlling for the reduced supply of domestic and international bank loans in the aftermath of the global crisis which might have induced the corporate sector to issue more bonds. Our results support the “gap-filling” theory (Greenwood et al., 2010) where corporate bonds replace the assets removed from the market by large scale asset purchases. Specifically, asset holdings and purchases crowded out investors from the markets where the Fed intervened and accelerated portfolio rebalancing across assets and countries leading to stronger corporate bond issuance across the globe. A counterfactual analysis shows that bond issuance in emerging markets since 2009 would have been halved without QE.