Wheat Supply Research Articles

Optimization of wheat flour production processes in a flour mill industry using linear programming

This study applied linear programming method as an optimization package to analyze the operational processes of wheat flour mill industry, with functional models developed using defined variables constraints of wheat flour x_1, baking flour x_2 and semolina x_3 for objective functions. Furthermore, a proficient operational process of wheat flour mill industry based on raw materials requirements and production cost using linear programming method with MATLAB application to optimize the operational process of wheat flour production plant by maximizing raw material resources and minimizing production cost using a modified milling process flow chart for enhanced products yield from the milling of the whole wheat grains, and a monthly analysis of the available wheat resource for production and machine hours operated during each month. The results after computing the average supply of wheat and available machine hours as variables and modelled into linear programming equations for optimization showed increase in semolina production, reduction in wheat flour production and reduction in production cost of baking flour respectively. In addition, the profit generated showed a significant increase in the months of December at ₦164,850.00 (highest) when the machine hours and wheat available were at its peak. Thus, baking flour was found to be the least profitable among the three products monthly and recommendations suggested a reduction in its production cost to enable profitability in its production

Why can’t the supply chain keep up with organic bakery product demand? Understanding miller, distributor, and baker organic wheat quality perceptions and needs

While the demand for organic wheat products in the U.S. is strong and continues to grow, organic wheat supply is actually decreasing in part due to grower challenges related to declining yields and quality. This study examines the perceptions, requirements, and needs of millers, distributors, and bakers surrounding organic wheat quality and supply. We also use ordered logit models to examine which factors and quality indicators influence organic wheat quality ratings alone and when compared to conventional wheat. Study data were collected in the winter of 2020/2021 through two online surveys. Results show that both bakers and millers/distributors rated wheat quality and consistent quality from suppliers as very important and that they consider protein quality and content as primary indicators of quality. However, they differ in their ratings of organic quality, as bakers perceive organic wheat to be of higher quality than conventional wheat and millers just the opposite. There was also disparity in their importance ratings for other wheat quality indicators. This study provides pertinent findings on the perceptions and needs of organic wheat buyers across the supply chain. Study findings will be especially informative to organic wheat growers, breeders, and researchers seeking to improve organic wheat quality and yields.

Food security vulnerability due to trade dependencies on Russia and Ukraine

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is disrupting global agricultural commodity markets, creating pressure on wheat supplies and stocks and consequently on food prices. The wider effects are felt around the world due to the dependencies inherent to global trade. But how to assess the vulnerability of countries food security and how to deal with it? To assess for which countries food security is at risk, dependencies along with a set of coping capacity indicators to absorb shocks need to be identified. Addressing vulnerabilities at this scale requires a global food security approach, because the food security of vulnerable countries depends on measure taken by other countries, together with a holistic approach to water, energy and food security. The Russian invasion brings to the fore the need to reassess the socio-economic value of agriculture and open trade, in terms of food security for stability in vulnerable regions.

An economic and viable approach to improve wheat quality in Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau, China

Wheat flour products are the main dietary component of the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP) population in China. However, the high altitude restricts the local wheat quality and quantity, and the applied nitrogen rate is higher than the optimal rate for wheat planting. In this study, we considered whether reducing the amount of nitrogen fertilizer and introducing the superior varieties from the North China Plain (NCP) are viable ways to increase the wheat quality and quantity in the QTP. Three and four winter wheat cultivars from QTP and NCP, respectively, were planted in Lhasa at an altitude of 3 647 m with reduced topdressing nitrogen application at the jointing stage. The wheat from NCP exhibited higher grain hardness index and test weight, and better flour and dough quality. Reducing the topdressing nitrogen fertilizer from 135 to 75 kg N ha−1 at the jointing stage (with the same basal fertilization of 105 kg N ha−1) did not significantly (P<0.05) affect the grain yield, grain quality, flour quality or dough quality in any of the cultivars. In summary, introducing high-quality winter wheat varieties from the NCP to the Lhasa plateau is a viable way to enhance the wheat supply and quality in the QTP. Reducing a certain amount of the nitrogen fertilizer is an economic and feasible approach for the QTP region.

Climate warming causes changes in wheat phenological development that benefit yield in the Sichuan Basin of China

The effects of climate warming on wheat yields vary geographically under different warming scenarios. Such variations reflect real climatic differences and our insufficient understanding of how physiological processes respond to warming conditions. In this study, a 16-year trial comprising three crop production systems (CPSs) and a 5-year trial including seven cultivars were conducted in the Sichuan Basin of China to investigate the effects of climate warming on the phenological development, grain yield (GY), dry matter (DM) accumulation and translocation of wheat. The three CPSs included conventional rotary tillage with residue removal for both rice and wheat (CPS1), conventional rotary tillage with the wheat residue incorporated for the rice following zero tillage with residue-mulching for wheat (CPS2), and zero tillage and residue-mulching employed for both wheat and rice (CPS3). The wheat cultivars used in this study were all spring-type wheat, and the trials were planted from 26 to 30 October each year, irrigation was applied only at the seeding and topdressing stages and in amounts less than 20 mm. The results showed that mean of daily mean temperature from November to March (MTNov-Mar) and November to April (MTNov-Apr) significantly increased by 0.0964 °C yr-1 and 0.0947 °C yr-1 from 2004 to 2020, respectively. This warming caused earlier flowering and significantly decreased mean temperature from anthesis to maturity (PostATmean) by 0.091 °C yr-1. However, grain number m-2 was unaffected by this warming. Cooler and longer grain-gilling periods (GFP) lead to larger grain sinks and allow more preanthesis assimilates to be transported to the grain, resulting in increased individual grain weight and harvest index under all CPSs and all cultivars. There were no significant differences in sensitivities of GY and DM related trait responses to temperature change between CPSs or between cultivars. Averaged over all CPSs, GY increased 741.9 kg ha-1 with each 1 °C increases in MTNov-Apr. The increase in yield was mainly attributable to increase in grain weights while grain number m-2 was maintained. In addition, the MTNov-Apr values in the Sichuan Basin were predicted to reach 14.7 °C and 16.5 °C by the end of this century under the SSP245 and SSP585 climate change scenarios, respectively. When the CO2 concentration was fixed at 350 ppm, the Agricultural Production Systems SIMulator (APSIM) model showed that the increasing MTNov-Apr values significantly increased the GY under the SSP245 scenario, but the GY was initially positively and then negatively affected under the SSP585 scenario. These results lay the foundation for developing adaptation strategies to address future climate change in climates like that of Sichuan Basin and ensure wheat supplies.

Near- to long-term measures to stabilize global wheat supplies and food security.

The Ukraine–Russia war will impact global food security over months if not years. In the wake of COVID-19 and in the face of increasing climate change, we propose responses to a multi-layered global food crisis that mitigate near-term food security risks, stabilize wheat supplies and transition towards long-term agri-food system resilience.

Russia-Ukraine Crisis and Its Impact on South Asia

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine under the pretense of national security. The Russia-Ukraine war is likely bound to give birth to severe issues including economic implications for the parties involved, and for the world’s atomic states. The imposition of serious sanctions on a petro-state such as Russia will have long lasting terminal effects, one of which could be the surge in global oil prices. The economic impact of Putin’s war on Ukraine is largely political when it comes to Russia. The economic sanctions imposed on Russia by Western politicians will determine the disruptions in the supply of Brent crude oil and other exports by Russia. While as far as Ukraine is concerned, the extent of the damage caused by the Russian strikes on its infrastructure and agricultural land, will determine the disruptions in the supply of wheat, sunflower oil, and other exports. The research paper is aimed to discuss consequences of Russia-Ukraine crisis generally on South Asia and specifically on Pakistan.

COVID-19 induced lockdown effect on wheat supply chain and prices in India – Insights from state interventions led resilience

COVID-19 incidence in India, impacted the food market, wheat in particular, as the crop harvest coincided with the lockdown disrupting the supply chain and prices posing a few researchable issues - the lockdown effect on wheat supply chain; how the state intervention bolstered the sector to restore; the insights the government interventions offer, etc. The study, using the interrupted time series analysis, investigated the disruption in wheat supply chain, and captured the impact of lockdown on wheat prices. Despite relaxation allowed to agricultural-related activities, lack of transport and labour shortage were reported. Nevertheless, the country registered a record wheat procurement of 38.99 million tonnes. Though the prices spiked post-lockdown, there was no evidence of structural-break and persisting volatility. The findings affirm that supply chain disruption is the main driver for the observed price changes and government interventions like staggered procurement and logistics support resulted in restoration of the wheat economy. The relief measures, infrastructure and its efficient usage, and easing restrictions rendered resilience to wheat supply chain against the COVID-19 shocks. The experience of coordinated efforts of the state machinery and the cooperative farm communities offers confidence about the national capacities to manage disasters of even greater scale in agriculture.

Regional prediction of multi-mycotoxin contamination of wheat in Europe using machine learning

Wheat is susceptible to fungal infection and mycotoxin contamination during its cultivation period, under opportune environmental conditions. The presence of mycotoxins, such as deoxynivalenol and zearalenone, in wheat destined for feed and food can affect animal and human health. This study aimed to develop a machine learning algorithm to predict the risk levels of one or more mycotoxins in wheat on a regional basis in Europe using crop phenological data, weather data, and satellite images as input. A dataset was obtained with 11 years of mycotoxin monitoring data (2010–2020), including historical records of the concentration of deoxynivalenol, zearalenone, T-2 toxin and HT-2 toxin, fumonisins, aflatoxins, and/or ochratoxin A in wheat in Europe. This dataset was linked, based on year and grid (25 × 25 km), to wheat phenology data, weather data, and satellite image data. The complete dataset for the years 2010–2018 was split into a model training (80%) and an internal model validation set (20%). Data for the years 2019 and 2020 were used for external validation. The random forest (RF) algorithm was applied to train the model using the model training data. The model predicts the probability (low, medium, high) of wheat grown in a certain grid in Europe to be contaminated with at least one of the six mycotoxins under study. Results showed high prediction performance of the model: internal and external validation resulted in 0.90–0.99 prediction accuracy. Based on the data for the Netherlands (case study), satellite images showed to improve the overall model performance. The current model with its mycotoxin predictions can be used by stakeholders to increase logistics in the wheat supply chain and for risk-based monitoring, in this way contributing to improving the safety of wheat derived products, and improving food security. For future development and improvement of prediction models, more mycotoxin data with detailed locations of the cultivated crop are needed.

Connected and extracted: Understanding how centrality in the global wheat supply chain affects global hunger using a network approach.

While global food trade has allowed countries to buffer against domestic food production shortfalls and gain access to larger markets, engaging in trade has also opened economies up to shocks and increased extraction of food resources. With this research, we analyze how the global grain network influences country-level nourishment, while controlling for per capita land and food production. First, we model the trade network structure of the global wheat supply chain to measure the centrality or positionality of countries. We use spatial regression analysis to assess the impact of trade networks, volume, purchasing power, production capacity and geography on undernourishment. We find that the six countries most central to the global grain trade by betweenness and eigenvector centralities account for more than half of all wheat exports globally by volume. The centrality of these countries as opposed to volume of wheat produced or traded, determines their influence in the wheat supply chain network. The parametric component of our analysis confirms that trade, and centrality have significant implications for national levels of nourishment. Our findings suggest that for countries with low purchasing power, increasing centrality allows improvements in nourishment levels but for countries with very high purchasing power, increasing centrality can increase hunger outcomes. To counteract perturbations and shortfalls such as those being experienced currently in the globalized food system, local and regional governments may consider refocusing on regional and local based food systems.

Green Design of Regional Wheat Supply Chains under Uncertainty

This study presents a fuzzy mathematical programming model to optimize regional wheat hub center in Iran with the aim of achieving sustainable self-sufficiency, swap and export of wheat to neighboring countries. The proposed model is developed for a 10-year planning horizon with real-world assumptions under uncertainty. By the proposed model, the optimal decisions are made on the amount of wheat cultivation areas in different provinces, capacity of silos, amount of import, swap and export of wheat, transportation mode and storage amount of wheat in different periods. Two objective functions including economic and environmental goals are optimized by the proposed model. The proposed model is examined under uncertainty conditions and the possibilistic programming approach is used to deal with the uncertainty of parameters. Finally, the presented model is validated through investigating a real case study in Iran. The results show the efficiency of the model for making optimal strategic and tactical decisions in wheat supply chains.

Prolonged heat and drought versus cool climate on the Swedish spring wheat breeding lines: Impact on the gluten protein quality and grain microstructure

AbstractFluctuating climate, heat, and drought are expected to considerably impact bread wheat (Triticum aestivum) quality in the coming years and, as wheat is an essential food element worldwide, this will have significant implications for future food security and the global economy. This leads to an urgent need for developing wheat varieties with stable yield and gluten quality. In this study, we investigated the effect of heat and drought, compared to a cool climate, on gluten proteins in 294 spring wheat genotypes grown in 2017 and 2018 in Sweden. Gluten protein parameters were studied by size exclusion high‐performance liquid chromatography (SE‐HPLC) and grain morphology by X‐ray tomography. The prolonged heat and drought led to: (i) increased gluten polymerization and the formation of large polymers, as defined by the percentage of unextractable polymers in total polymers (%UPP) and the percentage of large unextractable polymers in total large polymers (%LUPP); and (ii) increase in large monomers, as defined by the percentage of large unextractable monomers in the total large monomers (%LUMP) and the ratio of monomers versus polymers (Mon/Pol) in the flour. The cooler climate also led to an increase in total protein concentration and accumulation of the monomeric proteins and total SDS‐extractable proteins (TOTE). No difference in the total amount of SDS‐unextractable proteins (TOTU) was found between the studied climates. Due to the heat and drought stress, the grain yield decreased in most of the genotypes, while the grain microstructure varied only to a minor extent. The wheat genotypes identified in the study that provide good yields and stable gluten properties in both prolonged heat–drought and cool environments are strong candidates to contribute to a secure, self‐sufficient future wheat supply in the face of an evolving climate in Sweden and in similar climates worldwide.

Prediction of wheat quality parameters combining Raman, fluorescence, and near‐infrared spectroscopy (NIRS)

AbstractBackground and ObjectivesA high amount of the world wheat production is used for bread making. Due to its simplicity, wheat samples are traded based on protein content, although this is only an indirect measurement of baking quality. As direct bread quality traits like loaf volume, water absorption, and dough properties are cumbersome to measure along wheat supply chains and in wheat breeding programs, this study aims to predict directly dough properties and baking behavior by combining complementary information from near‐infrared, Raman, and fluorescence spectroscopy. Several proven data preprocessing and regression algorithms were evaluated, including partial least‐squares regression (PLSR) and genetic algorithm (GA).FindingsA highly diverse sample set of 415 wheat samples from a wheat hybrid breeding program was analyzed as whole grain, whole grain flour, and extracted flour. The best predictive models yielded a 10‐fold cross‐validated coefficient of determination R2 of .973, .873, .774, .835, .369, .447, .311, .512, .536, .723, and .715 for protein content, wet gluten, loaf volume, water uptake, elongation resistance to extension, extensibility, ratio number, extensograph energy, maltose number, plant height, and grain yield, respectively.ConclusionThe prediction accuracies are well suited for screening purposes in wheat breeding and allow better quality assessment compared to protein content along wheat supply chains.Significance and NoveltyIn this study, complementary spectroscopic techniques are combined for the first time to achieve higher prediction accuracy for a wide range of wheat quality parameters. In addition, Raman and fluorescence spectroscopy were used to predict quality data from a large sample set.

High-temperature indicators for capturing the impacts of heat stress on yield: lessons learned from irrigated wheat in the hot and dry environment of Sudan

High temperatures occurring during flowering and early grain filling substantially decrease cereal yields. Drawing on accumulated evidence showing that, compared to air temperature (Ta), crop canopy temperature (Tc) better explains observed yield reductions caused by heat stress, we evaluated the usefulness of Tc versus Ta in designing high-temperature indicators for agrometeorological services, including crop monitoring and forecasting. The hot and dry environment of Sudan provides an ideal testbed. Tc was derived from the combined simulation of a crop model and a land surface model. Based on regressions linking the high-temperature indicators with irrigated wheat yield variations in 3 regions of Sudan over the last half-century, we found that using phenological periods rather than months for the wheat season (November to February), and using Tc rather than Ta, more effectively tracks the adverse effects of high temperature on yield during the key periods. The Tc-based indicators calculated for the key phenological periods have more robust multi-region applicability than the Ta-based indicators calculated for months and season, although they do not necessarily outperform the region-specific indicators in terms of explanatory power. We determined that the key periods were the vegetative growth period for the relatively cool region, and the reproductive growth period for the relatively hot regions. These findings suggest that agrometeorological services at the national and global levels should adopt Tc-based indicators, which will ultimately help players in global food systems adapt to climate change by preparing for wheat supply disruptions due to high-temperature extremes.

Finding the right price: supply chain contracts as a tool to guarantee sustainable economic viability of organic farms

The aim of this study is to analyse the volatility of agricultural commodity prices and assess the effectiveness of supply chain contracts as possible tools to prevent it. The study refers to the cereal sector, which is of vital importance for the agri-food system of the Mediterranean area. Since Italy is the world’s largest producer of durum wheat semolina, the proper functioning of the Italian durum wheat supply chain is central to this investigation. The study was conducted following two different paths of analysis: (1) the calculation of volatility indices using annual and monthly data of durum wheat prices, both organic and industrial, observed in the Bologna Commodity Exchange (AGER); (2) the analysis of two organic durum wheat supply chain contracts, defined by a cooperative involving hundreds of Italian farms mainly from the Marche region and by an agricultural consortium operating in the Adriatic regions. Despite the limited number of cases examined, the present study shows how supply chain contracts can be valid tools for building stable relationships between the various players, from production to processing and distribution, guaranteeing farms fairer and more remunerative raw material purchase prices and higher quality standards.

Determinants of wheat value chain in case of North Shewa Zone of Amhara region, Ethiopia

The main objective of the study is to identify the determinants of wheat value chain in case of North Shewa Zone of Amhara region, Ethiopia. The researchers used multistage purposive random sampling technique to select representative households in the study area. The ordinary least square output revealed that production of wheat, price of wheat and secondary and tertiary education of the household positively and significantly affect supply of wheat to the market. On the other hand, distance from the market and distance from the main road have negative and significant effect on supply of wheat. Moreover, the multinomial logit regression result showed that household family size and market information have positive and significant effect while distance from the market and ownership of livestock have negative and significant effect on smallholder farmers’ market participation. The binary logit model also indicates that land holding, access to market information, total livestock and primary education affected positively and significantly. Therefore, policies aiming at increasing farmer’s awareness of producing value added wheat produce to enhance value creations are recommended to strengthen chain development.

Performance and Prospects of Wheat Market Outlook in India

The study used secondary data on wheat demand and supply and assessed its market performance (1980-2019). Additionally, it compared the market outlook of wheat for 2020-30. The study reported that the wheat supply and demand increased by 3.14 and 2.71 times, respectively, from 1980 to 2020. Production and food demand contributed about 90 per cent each to the supply and demand growth. Spatially, the west, north and east zones remained the primary contributor (&gt;95%) to the market supply of wheat. West zone performed better in area (1.32%) and production growth (3.82%), while the north zone registered highest yield growth of 2.8 t/ha during last 40 years. The same period registered a growth of 9.69 per cent in the net trade of wheat. On the demand side, although the per capita consumption of wheat registered a negative growth (-1.45%), the food demand grew by 2.51 per cent per annum in the past four decades. Market outlook of wheat suggested that the wheat surplus during 2020-30 would be between -3.4 to 32 million tonnes with an average of 20 million tonnes.

The effect of moisture supply conditions on productivity of winter bread wheat, sown after various forecrops in the southern part of the Rostov region

Weather and climatic conditions determine moisture supply, which is the main factor affecting winter wheat productivity in the area of unstable moisture. The current study was carried out on the experimental plot of the laboratory for cultivation technology of grain crops of the FSBSI Agricultural Research Center “Donskoy” in 2010–2020. The soil of the experimental plot was ordinary calcareous heavy loamy blackearth (chernozem). The humus horizon was powerful up to 140 cm. The humus content was 3.9%. The purpose of the study was to establish the moisture supply of winter bread wheat when cultivated according to various forecrops. There has been found that the autumn periods in the most years of study were arid with 37% of precipitation. Winter wheat plants from September to June were provided with 70% of precipitation, with a 1022.55 of air humidity deficit and 664.7 mm of water demand. There was found that, on average over the years of study, 88% of moisture supply promoted yielding of 7.03 t/ha of winter wheat sown in weedfree fallow. In order to yield a ton of grain there was required 591.7 m3 of total moisture. The share of precipitation in this moisture consumption was 84%, and the share of soil moisture was 16%. When sown after sunflower, moisture provision was 77%, and winter wheat yield was 5.32 t/ha. In order to yield a ton of grain there was required 657.3 m3 of total moisture, which was on 65.6 m3 more than in the variant with a weedfree fallow. The share of precipitation in this moisture consumption was 96%, and the share of soil moisture was 4%.

Development and evaluation of an innovative grain cart with a pneumatic conveyor

In line with the requirements of the Egyptian government to find a solution for wheat transportation during the peak harvesting season, an innovative design for a grain cart with a capacity of 8 tons supplemented with a grain hopper, a lifting double-action pneumatic conveyor, and a built-in digital scale was tested and evaluated to facilitate the transport of wheat crops from farmers' fields to storage sites. The cart was manufactured in the workshop of a local industrial company. It was tested under varying operational conditions in different wheat production areas in terms of working performance, efficiency of the grain loading and unloading mechanism, precision of the grain weighing mechanism, and cost/ton. The cart will enable wheat farmers and traders to transport and deliver their crops easily to storage sites with minimal losses and maximum working efficiency. It will also increase farmers’ profit because transportation cost by using this grain cart is less than that of the current conventional method. Moreover, the developed cart can secure wheat supply in government storage sites without any interruption during the peak wheat harvesting season.

Integrated application of inorganic fertilizer with fulvic acid for improving soil nutrient supply and nutrient use efficiency of winter wheat in a salt-affected soil

Establishing better nitrogen (N) management strategies is of great significance for sustaining crop production and reducing environmental pollution. However, there is limited knowledge about N fertilizer management practices with soil nutrient supply, N leaching, crop productivity and nutrient use efficiency (NUE) reaching the desired level simultaneously. In this study, pot experiment was conducted to evaluate the effects of N fertilizer and in combination with fulvic acid (FA) on NUE and nutrient supply in a moderate-salinized soil (with total salt content 3.30 g kg−1 and EC1:5 1.18 dS m−1). Ten treatments were included: treatment without any addition (CK); 100%, 85% and 70% of the conventional inorganic N fertilizer addition rate (100% CF, 85% CF and 70% CF); 100% CF, 85% CF and 70% CF combined with 75 kg ha−1 FA (100% CF + F1, 85% CF + F1, and 70% CF + F1), respectively; and 100% CF, 85% CF and 70% CF combined with 150 kg ha−1 FA (100% CF + F2, 85% CF + F2, and 70% CF + F2), respectively. In order to further investigate the effects of combining N fertilizer and FA applications on soil N leaching losses, part of the fertilizer management practices were selected to conduct a soil leaching experiment. The results demonstrated that the Olsen-P for the upper 20 cm of soil was significantly affected by N fertilization (P ≤ 0.01). In the treatments with inorganic fertilization alone, the concentration of soil mineral N at 0–10 cm soil depth decreased with decreasing level of fertilizer N, while Olsen-P content and alkaline phosphatase activity decreased with increasing N fertilizer application rate. The application of FA significantly increased alkaline phosphatase activity. Overall, the total mineral N leaching losses increased exponentially with increasing annual fertilizer N application rates, while the addition of FA decreased the total mineral N leaching factor (TLFN). Furthermore, the results of multiple regression analysis revealed that wheat grain yield, plant P uptake, plant N uptake, harvest index of applied fertilizer N (HIN), partial factor productivity of applied fertilizer P (PFPP), recovery efficiency of P (REP) and recovery efficiency of N (REN) reached ≥85% of their maximum concurrently, when the application amounts of N fertilizer and FA varied from 300 to 370 kg ha−1 and from 164 to 250 kg ha−1, respectively. These results of this study provide a basis for appropriate nitrogen (N) management in salt-affected soils and for the improvement of the sustainability of agricultural development in China.