Super Cycle Research Articles

Natural resources, (Mis)governance, and the lack of diversification in mining regions: A reconsideration of the Dutch disease at a local level

This paper aims to refine the understanding of the resource movement effect of the Dutch disease at a local level by (1) broadening the focus to include access to natural resources and (2) considering the local role of institutions as a channel for this effect. We propose an expanded theoretical approach to evolutionary economic geography on interpath dynamics, considering the role of local institutions in access to scarce assets by integrating the conceptualization of governance structures provided by transaction cost economics. This proposed framework is applied to a case study of Calama, located within the hyper-arid Atacama Desert in the Antofagasta region of northern Chile. The case demonstrates how local inequities in access to freshwater increased permanently due to the Chilean 1981 Water Code in correlation with a temporal copper price super cycle. The results reveal how the mining sector and indigenous associations concentrated access to water rights originally inscribed in irrigation canals by small farmers through a market governance structure, constraining economic diversification through negative interpath dynamics. This research denotes the importance of considering institutional bottom-up approaches to overcome resource dependency.

A Spinel Tin Ferrite with High Lattice-Oxygen Anchored on Graphene-like Porous Carbon Networks for Lithium-Ion Batteries with Super Cycle Stability and Ultra-fast Rate Performances.

A new type of nano-SnFe2O4 with stable lattice-oxygen and abundant surface defects anchored on ultra-thin graphene-like porous carbon networks (SFO@C) is prepared for the first time by an interesting freezing crystallization salt template method. The functional composite has excellent rate performance and long-term cycle stability for lithium-ion battery (LIB) anodes due to the stable structure, improved conductivity, and shortened migrating distance for lithium-ions, which are derived from the higher lattice-oxygen of SnFe2O4, abundant porous carbon networks and surface defects, and smaller nanoparticles. Under the ultra-high current density of 10, 15, and 20 A g-1 cycling for 1000 times, the SFO@C can provide high reversible capacities of 522.2, 362.5, and 361.1 mAh g-1, respectively. The lithium-ion storage mechanism of the composite was systematically studied for the first time by in situ X-ray diffraction (XRD), ex situ XRD and scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and density functional theory (DFT) calculations. The results indicate that the existence of Li2O and metallic Fe during the lithiation/delithiation process is a key reason for reducing the initial lithium-ion storage reversibility but increasing the rate performance and capacity stability in the subsequent cycles. DFT calculations show that lithium-ions are more easily adsorbed on the (111) crystal plane with a much lower adsorption energy of -7.61 eV than other planes, and the Fe element is the main acceptor of electrons. Moreover, the kinetics investigation indicates that the lithium-ion intercalation and deintercalation in SFO@C are mainly controlled by the pseudocapacitance behavior, which is favorable to enhancing the rate performance. The research provides a new strategy for designing LIB electrode materials with a stable structure and outstanding lithium-ion storage performance.

Enterprise target cost control algorithm based on hypercycle model

Considering that the current cost control algorithm has the problems of poor control effect and high cost of manpower and material resources in enterprise cost control, a target cost control algorithm based on Hypercycle model is proposed. By analyzing the relationship between capital, price, technology and target cost control, this paper analyzes the influence of uncertain factors on target cost, and constructs a cost control super cycle model to realize enterprise cost control. Examples show that the algorithm can effectively improve the cost effect of enterprises, and has the practicability of reducing enterprise costs and improving enterprise profits.

Nitrogen use efficiency and grain yield of corn hybrids as affected by nitrogen rates and sowing dates in subtropical environment

Delay of sowing date in subtropical environments with long growing seasons can modify the yield response of corn hybrids to nitrogen (N) fertilization. This study evaluated the effects of the sowing time, and N top-dress rate on corn hybrids’ yield and N-use efficiency with different cycles. Two field experiments were carried out in subtropical environment of southern Brazil. The following factors were investigated: corn hybrids (AG9025, super early cycle and P30F53, early cycle), sowing times (early and late spring), [...]

Post-pandemic metal supercycle and effectiveness of fiscal instruments

The paper has two main objectives. On the one hand, to assess whether the recent rise in the international price of metals is of similar importance to that registered during the “super cycle” of the decade 2003-2012. On the other, analyze the effectiveness of fiscal instruments in capturing the rent related to extraordinary income from mining in Peru. Based on a statistical analysis it is found that the recent rise in the price of metals, being more intense and having started from a higher threshold compared to the past boom, translates into particularly hight extraordinary income for mining companies. It is also concluded that the new mining tax regime, implemented since 2012, has not been showing the same dynamism as the old tax regime in order to ensure optimal appropriation of mining rent by the State.

Time-varying effect of international iron ore price on China’s inflation: A complete price chain with TVP-SVAR-SV model

This paper employs a time-varying parameter structural vector autoregression with stochastic volatility (TVP-SVAR-SV) model to examine the time-varying impacts of three types of international iron ore price shocks (the supply, special demand and global demand shock) on China’s inflation from a complete price chain perspective. The empirical results indicate that: (1) demand shocks rather than supply shock in iron ore price have strong effects on China’s inflation at each stage, revealing the importance of distinguishing the underlying sources of price shifts; (2) the effects of iron ore price shocks on China’s inflation at the import stage are substantial and gradually decrease along the price chain. Meanwhile, the product prices of upstream industries are greatly influenced by price shocks, but downstream companies fail to shift rising costs to consumers due to demand elasticity; (3) the fluctuations of iron ore price are not driven by China’s inflation or supply but rather by demand factors, which is in line with the theory of super cycle. Based on the findings, policies focusing on decreasing preventive demand should be proposed. Moreover, China ought to increase overseas investment and improve utilization rates of scrap and iron ore to ease imported inflationary pressures.

Herbicides doses in the defoliation of common bean to anticipate mechanized harvesting

Abstract Background The use of desiccant herbicides can allow the anticipation of common bean harvesting by providing a reduction in the humidity of plants and grains. Objective Determine the effect of doses of desiccant herbicides on the moisture content of the plants (stems, leaves and grains), in the 100 grains mass, grain yield and physiological quality of the seeds of two contrasting common bean cultivars. Methods The experimental design for each cultivar (BRS FC 104, super early cycle, 60 days from sowing to harvesting and BRS Estilo, normal cycle, 90 days from sowing to harvesting) as in randomized blocks in the factorial scheme 4 x 3 x 4, with four replications. Treatments consisted of four herbicides (ammonium glufosinate (200 g L-1 of active ingredient, ai), glyphosate (480 g L-1 of acid equivalent), diquat (200 g L-1 of ai) and paraquat (200 g L-1 of ai), with three doses (200 g L-1, 400 g L-1 and 600 g L-1 of ai per ha for ammonium glufosinate, diquat and paraquat, and 480 g L-1, 960 g L-1 and 1,440 g L-1 of ae per ha for glyphosate) with evaluations of the variables at 0, 3, 5 and 7 days after application of the herbicide. Results All desiccants used provided faster drying of the botanical structures allowing faster harvesting in relation to control plants. The dosage of 200 g L-1 of the ai ha1 in the cultivar BRS FC 104 and 1,440 g L-1 of ae per ha for glyphosate and 600 g L-1 of ai per ha for the others dessicants in the cultivar BRS Estilo were those that provided best plant drying. The use of desiccants in plants of common bean did not affect crop grain yield. The dosage of 600 g L-1 of ai per ha of the ammonium glufosinate desiccant provided a reduction in vigor and normal seedlings and an increase in abnormal seedlings in the cultivar BRS FC 104. Conclusion All desiccant herbicides used allowed anticipation of common bean harvesting.

Super hydrophilic carbon fiber film for freestanding and flexible cathodes of zinc-ion hybrid supercapacitors

The oxygen-enriched super hydrophilic porous carbon fibers film has been synthesized as cathodes of ZHSCs via a facile electrospinning and subsequent nitric acid-treatment process. The prefabricated ZHSCs has a super long-term cycle performance. In particular, this cathode can operate stably under high load, different bending angles and a quasi-solid-state device, which increases its practical application potential. • Oxygen functional groups can improve the performance of carbon cathode. • The zinc-ion hybrid supercapacitors (ZHSCs) provide an ultralong-term lifespan. • The reaction mechanism between Zn 2+ and oxygen functional groups is proposed. • The ZHSCs can operate stably under harsh conditions. Aqueous zinc-ion hybrid supercapacitors (ZHSCs) are considered as promising candidates for flexible wearable energy storage devices. The key challenge is to develop carbon cathodes with high hydrophilicity, good flexibility and cycle stability. This paper reports a facile route to synthesize flexible oxygen-enriched carbon fiber films with super-hydrophilic character. ZHSCs with such carbon fiber cathodes achieve excellent energy and power densities of 97.7 Wh kg −1 /9.9 kW kg −1 with a long-term cycling stability (retention rate of 81% after 50,000 cycles). According to experiment analysis and theoretical simulations, it is discovered that the oxygen-containing functional groups on carbon fibers not only significantly improve their wettability, but also greatly facilitate the chemical adsorption of zinc ions and result in the enhanced capacities. In addition, those cathodes can operate well and stably not only under a high load of 20 mg cm −2 and a bending of 180°, but also in a quasi-solid-state device, promising for wearable electronic applications.

Rent-seeking in an emerging market: A DSGE approach

Due to the fact that rent-seeking is by definition an unobservable variable, measuring its size and evolution over the business cycle can be a daunting challenge. In this article, by embedding rent-seeking behavior in an otherwise standard open-economy DSGE model, we are able to derive a quarterly time series of this variable (expressed as a percentage deviation from the trend) for an emerging economy such as Brazil. The estimated series, spanning the period 2002Q1−2017Q4, shows a strong positive correlation with the “Commodity Super Cycle” of the 2000 decade and falls as a result of some political scandals and their ensuing investigations, among other driving forces. We also rely on the same model to assess how several shocks hitting the economy affect both rent-seeking and the relevant macroeconomic variables in our model. Barring monetary expansions, increased exports and higher income transfers to households, expansionary shocks are associated with lower rent-seeking activity. Factoring in these two sets of results, the upshot is that rent-seeking behavior shows a pattern of procyclicality in the Brazilian economy.

Layered Si-Ti oxide thin films with tailored electrical and optical properties by catalytic tandem MLD-ALD.

Oxides with well-controlled optical and electrical properties are key for numerous advances in nanotechnology, including energy, catalysis, sensors, and device applications. In this study we introduce layer-by-layer deposition of silicon–titanium layered oxide (Si–Ti LO) thin films using combined MLD-ALD methodology (M/ALD). The Si–Ti LO film deposition is achieved by acid–base catalysis establishing an overall catalytic tandem M/ALD super cycle (CT-M/ALD). The catalytic nature of the process allows relatively fast deposition cycles under mild conditions compared with the typical cycle time and conditions required for ALD processes with silane precursors. The Si–Ti LO thin films exhibit tuneable refractive index and electrical conductivities. The refractive index is set by the stoichiometry of Si- to Ti-oxide phases simply by selecting the MLD to ALD proportion in the CT-M/ALD super cycle, with low and high refractive index, respectively. Thermal treatment of Si–Ti LO thin films resulted in conductive thin films with both graphitic and Magnéli oxide phases. Enhanced conductivity and reduced onset temperature for Magnéli phase formation were obtained owing to the unique Si–Ti layer structure and stoichiometry attained by the CT-M/ALD process and facilitated by breaking of Si–C bonds and Red–Ox reactions between the Si sub-oxide and TiO2 phases leading to the conductive Magnéli phase. Hence, the embedded amine silane functions not only for catalysing Si–Ti LO deposition but also to further promote subsequent transformations during thermal processing. This work demonstrates the concept of embedding a meta-stable organic motif by the MLD step to facilitate transformation of an oxide phase by taking advantage of precise layer-by-layer deposition of alternating phases enabled by M/ALD.

The pandemic and a 2021 super election cycle in Latin America

The severity of the COVID-19 pandemic in Latin America has compounded long-standing social and economic problems that had inspired rounds of public protest even before 2020. Eight countries will hold elections this year as the pandemic continues to spread, and three will do so next year. New governments and legislatures, which at another time might have enjoyed a post-election honeymoon to begin implementing campaign promises, will find that continuing health and economic crises will leave them little room to manoeuvre.

Novel Design of Multiple Nested Coaxial ZnO Nanotube Gas Sensors Synthesized in Porous Templates By Atomic Layer Deposition

Among the various Metal Oxide Semiconductor (MOS) gas sensor types, solid-state gas sensors based on ZnO nanostructures have been widely used due to their properties of large exciton binding energy, wide band gape of 3.37 eV, good electrical conductivity, low cost, and high mechanical stability. In this work, ZnO nanotube nanostructures were employed for gas sensing of ethanol vapor concentrations, which is aided by their high electrochemical stability, nontoxicity, and, especially, high surface-to-volume ratio. Multiple coaxial nested ZnO nanotubes were synthesized inside porous membranes and porous templates to further enhance the sensing response to ethanol vapors with vastly increased reaction surfaces.In this study, ZnO nanotubes were synthesized by Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD) on porous Anodic Aluminum Oxide (AAO) templates with sacrificial Al2O3 layers and on porous Si membranes. The Al2O3 sacrificial layers were synthesized on porous AAO and porous Si by ALD with TMA (Al2(CH3)6) and DI water as ALD precursors. Then ZnO thin films were deposited on the surface of the sacrificial layer with precisely controlled thickness by ALD. The entire ALD procedure is considered as one ALD super cycle. More super cycles were applied to synthesize additional coaxial ZnO nanotubes. For the final removal of the sacrificial layer, Precision Ion Polishing System (PIPS) was used to first remove the top ALD surface cover. In this way, the Al2O3 sacrificial layers were exposed for Sodium Hydroxide (NaOH) etching. The objective of the Al2O3 sacrificial layers was to expose additional reactive sensing surfaces to react with the target gas by subsequent removal of these sacrificial layers. Finally, after the sacrificial layers were completely removed by wet chemical NaOH dissolution, the nested coaxial ZnO nanotube gas sensor design was fabricated with multiple sensing surfaces.To investigate the sensing performance of ZnO nanotube gas sensors to ethanol vapor, a gas sensor testing system was developed with a sealed reaction chamber and control system with stable temperature control and accurate concentration control. The sensing performance of single ZnO nanotubes, two nested coaxial ZnO nanotubes, and three nested coaxial ZnO nanotubes to ethanol vapor were measured and analyzed under various ethanol vapor concentrations and at different operating temperatures. The ZnO nanostructures sensing results on ethanol vapor demonstrated the sensing performance was considerably enhanced due to the increased surface to volume ratio in the ZnO tube structures.

Vertically oriented carbon nanotube as a stable frame to support the Co0.85Se nanoparticles for high performance supercapacitor electrode

With a facile spraying chemical vapor deposition technique and a subsequent hydrothermal method, well dispersed Co0.85Se nanoparticles supported on a stable frame of vertically oriented carbon nanotube (VOCNT) were synthesized and pressed directly on nickel foam (NF) for additive-free supercapacitor electrode. The fabricated electrode (VOCNT@Co0.85Se/NF) displayed a high specific capacity of 638 F g−1 under 1 A g−1, a good rate performance (87.8% capacity maintaining when the current density increased from 1 to 30 A g−1), and a remarkable cyclic stability (about 97.3% of the capacity retention over 5000 charging-discharging cycles). The excellent properties of VOCNT@Co0.85Se/NF electrode could be ascribed to the involvement of the VOCNT with uniquely aligned structure and proper intertube distance, which is helpful to the quick transport of electron/ions and reduces the volume deformation during various charging-discharging tests to effectively prevent the internal structure collapsing. Furthermore, the assembled asymmetric device based on the VOCNT@Co0.85Se/NF electrode possesses a energy density of 21.47 Wh·kg−1 at 325 W kg−1. This research reveals that unique VOCNT@Co0.85Se/NF could be regarded as potential candidate electrode with super cycle stability and rate performance for supercapacitors.

Modelling and Forecasting Commodities Prices in Emerging Market: Lessons from the Preceding Super Cycle

Futures trading is one of the oldest methods of trading and investing in commodities. History of commodities futures trading in India is interrupted, flabbergasted and disrupted unlike commodities future trading in Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), or London Metal Exchange (LME) where futures trading has been taking place uninterrupted for over a century. Prohibiting of futures trading in India in a large part of the last few decades has ensured research on commodities trading in India is still at an embryonic stage. In this study, we model Commodity prices of select Agriculture (Barley, Jeera, Sugar, and Pepper), Metal (Aluminium, Copper, Lead, and Gold), and Energy commodities (Crude Oil) in Indian Commodity Markets. Data during the Super-cycle period of commodities in India from 2003 to 2013 is used for the study and modeled using the state-space specification. The results of the study suggest that state-space specification and Kalman filter provides preeminent estimates for modeling and forecasting Indian commodity prices during the Super-cycle period. The results of the study provide crucial insights for pension funds, alternate investment funds, hedge funds and sovereign wealth funds worldwide to strategize better in the next expected super-cycle period of commodities post Covid-19 with burgeoning demand from developing economies of Asia and Africa.

El fracaso de la continuidad. La economía política del sexenio de Enrique Peña Nieto

La presidencia de Enrique Peña Nieto pretendió dar un giro de 180 grados al hecho fundamental que había marcado al gobierno anterior, la guerra en contra del crimen organizado. Para ello, decidió concentrarse en lo que llamó las reformas económicas estructurales, lo que significaba extender el modelo implementado desde los años ochenta, y que había seguido imperturbable durante los siguientes cuatro sexenios. Ello, a pesar de que durante los últimos treinta años el desempeño de la economía mexicana, así como sus efectos socioeconómicos, han sido muy decepcionantes. Esto es aún más claro si tomamos en cuenta las excepcionales condiciones en las que se desarrolló la economía internacional entre el año 2000 y 2014, en lo que se ha conocido como el superciclo de las commodities, caracterizado por un crecimiento acelerado de China, que estimuló enormemente la demanda y el precio de las materias primas, así como por la expansión de los recursos financieros provenientes de Estados Unidos, que llevó a la mayoría de los países de Latinoamérica a crecer de manera más acelerada y, sobre todo, a hacerlo al tiempo que disminuían la pobreza y la desigualdad. En contraste, México no logró aprovechar las muy favorables condiciones económicas internacionales para mejorar la situación socioeconómica de su población.

Does the Commodity Super Cycle Matter?

This paper investigates empirically the role of the commodity price super cycle in explaining real activity in developed and emerging economies. The commodity price super cycle is defined as a common permanent component in real commodity prices. Estimates using quarterly and annual data from 1960 to 2018 indicate that world shocks that affect commodity prices and the world interest rate explain more than half of the variance of output growth on average across countries. However, the majority of this contribution, more than two thirds, stems from stationary world shocks. These results suggest that world disturbances that are responsible for low frequency movements in commodity prices play an important but not dominant role in driving fluctuations in aggregate activity at the country level.

Super cycles in natural gas prices and their impact on Latin American energy and environmental policies

There was an upward trend in energy commodity prices since 2000, but with the surge in supply coming from unconventional oil and gas resources in North America, the trend in natural gas prices has become downward in recent years. However, the exploitation of these resources is generating public concerns due to the possible adverse environmental impacts of using hydraulic fracturing and other techniques on underground water. The purpose of this paper is to address the following questions: are there super cycles in natural gas prices? What are the environmental consequences in Latin America of the exploitation of unconventional gas given the cyclical behavior of gas prices? How are the governments in the region implementing energy and environmental policies to regulate unconventional shale gas production? With the last peak occurring in 2006, we identified three super cycles in natural gas prices, and it is predicted to observe a new super cycle in the 2020s. Our analysis indicates that the unstable political situation, the institutional weakness, the governmental intervention through asset nationalization, high capital expenditures to develop LNG export projects and to explore shale resources, as well as the pre-salt discoveries in Brazil make uncertain that the shale gas boom achieve a significant impact in Latin America during the coming gas-price super cycle.

Using local content policies to engender resource-based development in Zambia: A chronicle of a death foretold?

The commodity super cycle, shifting terms of trade, new oil discoveries, and altering geographies of supply and demand have restored confidence in resource-based development in the Global South. A central element herein is local content policies, which are thought to enhance host country participation in resource extraction and thus lay the foundation for structural transformation. This article analyses the extent to which local content policies trigger resource-based development. It uses Zambia as a critical case and argues that while, in theory, these policies could further domestic market formation, this is hampered in practice by local suppliers’ inability to meet the quality requirements of transnational mining corporations. It also argues that the Doing Business Indicator ranking drives the Zambian government to adopt policies that work against domestic market formation; and that power relations between transnational mining corporations and the Zambian state are imbalanced. The most likely result is that Zambia’s new Local Content Strategy has as little chance of transforming the Zambian economy as previous attempts to engender resource-based development.

Ethanol Gas Sensors Based on ZnO Nanotube Structures Fabricated By Atomic Layer Deposition

Among various Metal Oxide Semiconductor (MOS) gas sensors, ZnO nanostructure gas sensors have been widely used due to its large exciton binding energy, wide band gape of 3.37 eV, large exciton binding energy of 60 meV at room temperature, good electrical conductivity, low cost, and high mechanical stability. Furthermore, a variety of morphology has been developed to improve the properties and applications. In this work, ZnO nanotube nanostructures were fabricated as gas sensors to sense ethanol vapor due to its high electrochemical stability, nontoxicity, and, especially, high surface-to-volume ratio. Several coaxial ZnO nanotubes were synthesized on porous substrate to further enhance the sensing response to ethanol vapor with increased reaction surfaces in ZnO nanostructures. In this study, ZnO nanotubes were synthesized by Atomic Layer Deposition (ALD) on Anodic Aluminum Oxide (AAO) templates with sacrificial Al2O3 layers. The second Al2O3 sacrificial layer followed by ZnO layer was synthesized on AAO samples by ALD with TMA (Al2(CH3)6) and DI water as precursors. In addition, the third ZnO thin film layer were deposited on the surface of the sacrificial layer of Al2O3 with precisely controlled thickness by ALD. The entire procedure outlined above for fabricating ZnO-Al2O3-ZnO structures is considered as one super cycle. More super cycles were applied to synthesize additional coaxial ZnO nanotubes. To eliminate the sacrificial layer, a Precision Ion Polishing System (PIPS) was used to remove the top cover as shown in Figure 1. Therefore, the Al2O3 sacrificial layers were exposed for Sodium Hydroxide (NaOH) wet etching. After the sacrificial layers were removed by NaOH, ZnO nanotube gas sensors were formed as shown in Figure 1 (b). To investigate the sensing performance of ZnO nanotube gas sensors to ethanol vapors, a gas sensor testing system was developed with a sealed reaction chamber and a control system with stable temperature control and accurate gas concentration control. The sensing performance of the MOS gas sensors consisting of only core single crystal ZnO nanotubes, was compared to sensors consisting of double nested coaxial ZnO nanotubes, and further compared to three nested tube-in-tube coaxial ZnO nanotube structures and analyzed under various ethanol vapor concentrations at different temperatures. The ZnO nanostructures sensing results on ethanol vapor demonstrated the sensing performance was considerably enhanced due to the increased surface to volume ratio in the ZnO tube structures. Figure 1

A coin like porous carbon derived from Al-MOF with enhanced hierarchical structure for fast charging and super long cycle energy storage

A coin-shaped porous carbon is produced by carbonization of Al-based metal-organic frameworks and followed by the removal of Al2O3 though dissolving in NaOH solution. The hierarchically porous carbon has a large surface area (1,508 m2 g−1) with suitable size of mesopores (6.35 nm). The material exhibits an increased specific capacitance of 323 F g−1 at 1 mV s−1. It also has excellent high current discharge performance and superior stability with 97.9% retention at an ultra-high current density of 100 A g−1 during 15 × 104 cycles. The constructed symmetric solid supercapacitor shows an appreciably large capacitance of up to 117.2 F g−1 at 0.2 A g−1, corresponding to the high energy density of 36.5 W h kg−1 within a voltage window of 1.5 V. In addition, it offers satisfied durability with 11.5% decay rate after 20,000 cycles. The carbon with improved electrochemical properties is most likely attributed to its special coin shape and hierarchically porous pores. It is a new potential strategy to configure unique structure porous carbon materials for power supercapacitors via metal-organic frameworks serving as precursors.