Summer Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Research Articles

Precursory signals of summer precipitation over southern Central Asia: Combined effect of April soil moisture and sea surface temperature

AbstractThis study investigates the interannual variability of summer precipitation over Central Asia and explores its precursory signals through soil moisture (SM) and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The results reveal that southern Central Asia (SCA) is a crucial SM‐precipitation coupling region where summer precipitation is significantly linked to the preceding April SM in the Turan Plain, between the Caspian Sea and the Tibetan Plateau. The preceding Turan Plain SM (TPSM) anomaly can reflect the ensuing summer SM anomalies in the SCA region due to the persistence of SM. The higher TPSM can stimulate anomalous convective ascent and associated negative geopotential height anomalies over the SCA region, which is favourable for more SCA precipitation (SCAP) during summer. Additionally, Indian and Pacific Ocean SST (IPOS) anomalies can regulate the summer SCAP through ocean and land relay effects. The preceding April can reflect the subsequent summer SST anomalies across the northern Indian Ocean and South China Sea, which trigger a Matsuno‐Gill response and induce anomalous water vapour transport into the SCA region, providing favourable moisture conditions for more SCAP during summer. Apart from such an ocean relay effect, the preceding IPOS can modulate the April TPSM first and then affect the summer SCAP through the land relay effect caused by persistent SM anomalies from April to summer. The combined effect of the preceding TPSM and IPOS on the summer SCAP is more pronounced than the respective effect of either TPSM or IPOS. Incorporating the TPSM signal as a supplementary precursor can enhance the predictive skill of summer SCAP. These findings may provide valuable insights into the reasons and prediction of the variability of summer SCAP.

The mechanism of boreal summer SSTA phase-locking in the far eastern Pacific

In observations, the boreal winter El Niño—Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase-locking phenomenon is evident in the central-eastern Pacific. In the far eastern equatorial Pacific (FEP) and South American coastal regions, however, the peak of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) tends to occur in the boreal summer, with fewer winter peak events. By separating the direct ENSO forcing from the FEP SSTA, we found that the summer peak preference is contributed by the residual SSTA component, while the ENSO forcing provides only a small probability of winter peak. The dynamics of FEP SSTA phase-locking in observations and its biases in the climate models are investigated by adopting a linear stochastic-dynamical model. In observations, the summer phase-locking of FEP SSTA is controlled by the seasonal modulation of the SSTA damping process. In contrast, in the climate models the strength of FEP SSTA phase-locking is much smaller than observed due to the overly negative SSTA damping rate.

Variations in Summer Extreme Hot–Humid Events over Eastern China and the Possible Associated Mechanisms

Abstract This study aimed to explore the changing characteristics of summer, compound, extreme hot–humid events over eastern China in recent decades and the associated underlying mechanisms. Results showed that the summer extreme hot–humid events over eastern China have tended to increase but with strong interannual variability in recent decades. Further analyses indicated that the summer sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies over the northwest Pacific (NW Pacific) and western tropical Pacific, and the May Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) anomalies are the key elements that are closely connected to the variations in extreme hot–humid events over eastern China. The positive SST anomalies over the NW Pacific in summer, on the one hand, could strengthen the local circulation patterns that lead to the anomalous anticyclonic circulation over eastern China. On the other hand, the positive SST anomalies over the western tropical Pacific excite an anomaly pattern similar to the Pacific–Japan pattern that weakens the westerly jet and enhances the anticyclone circulation anomalies over the upper level of eastern China. Both of them provide favorable conditions for extreme hot–humid events over eastern China with increased moisture and temperatures. The sensitivity experiments by the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5 (CAM5), with SST forcing yield similar influencing processes to the observations. Additionally, the effect of SIC may be potentially responsible for the hot conditions in extreme hot–humid events over eastern China. The signal of declining May SIC could persist to summer and then influence the SST anomalies to its south, which could also produce a beneficial background for extreme hot–humid events to increase over eastern China by exciting the Rossby wave train propagating southeastward across the Mongolia–Lake Baikal region.

Tropical Anomalies Associated with the Interannual Variability of the Cross-Equatorial Flows over the Maritime Continent in Boreal Summer

Abstract In this study, we investigate circulation, convection, and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with interannual variability of the cross-equatorial flow (CEF) intensity over the Maritime Continent (MC) in boreal summer. Observational diagnostics show that strengthened CEF is associated with large-scale circulation anomalies featuring weakened Walker circulation, upper-level northeasterly anomalies across the MC, and lower-level cyclonic anomalies over the tropical western North Pacific (WNP). Further analyses indicate that strengthened CEF is associated with both La Niña–like SST anomalies in the preceding winter and El Niño–like SST anomalies in the simultaneous summer. These relationships between CEF and ENSO are established by two key convection regions: enhanced convection over WNP and depressed convection over the MC. A linear baroclinic model is applied here to further discuss the causality between circulation and convection. Results suggest that both the WNP heating and MC cooling can induce the strengthened CEF. Moreover, the stability of the relationship between CEF and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is also discussed. Results show that the relationship between CEF and SST anomalies in the simultaneous summer is stable and remains significant, whereas that between CEF and SST anomalies in the preceding winter experienced a decadal strengthening around 1997/98 from insignificant to significant. After 1998, the preceding winter ENSO is followed by strong summer SST anomalies in the MC that significantly affect CEF via modulating local convection. However, this ENSO–summer MC SST relationship is weak before 1997, failing to establish the relationship between the preceding ENSO and CEF.

The Diversity of ENSO Evolution during the Typical Decaying Periods Determined by an ENSO Developing Mode

AbstractThe evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an essential predictor for global climate anomalies, but ENSO’s effect is regulated by the considerable diversity of post-ENSO evolution. This study identified that there coexist a decaying mode and a developing mode of ENSO in the ENSO decaying periods (from September to August) through empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and extended EOF analyses. The diversity of ENSO evolution during the decaying periods is actually determined by the ENSO developing mode, which is unsteady and susceptible to other signals, whereas the ENSO decaying mode is quite steady. Using multiple datasets, segmented datasets, and sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs)-residual EOF, the key signals related to the diversity of ENSO evolution are identified and verified in the South Atlantic and equatorial South Pacific. Based on the decaying and developing modes, a prediction model was constructed to predict the boreal summer Niño-3 index. The ENSO developing mode, explaining very small variance, plays a decisive role in determining the prediction of the summer SSTAs in the Pacific. The forecasting skill of summer ENSO can also be greatly improved when continuous SSTAs and interbasin interactions in the whole tropics are considered. This prediction result indicates that identified precursory disturbance signals and interbasin interactions for ENSO development are crucial for boreal summer ENSO prediction.Significance StatementENSO often shows great diversity in the temporal evolution during post-ENSO periods, thus limiting the predictability of tropical SSTAs in the following spring and summer. Identifying the signal impacting the diversity of ENSO is crucial for predicting ENSO. Here, we offer a new understanding of the essence of ENSO’s temporal diversity from the perspective of interbasin interactions. We identified that the ENSO typical decaying period contains a steady decaying mode and an unsteady developing mode simultaneously, and the developing mode induces the great diversity in ENSO’s evolution during post-ENSO periods. Two signals located in the South Atlantic and equatorial South Pacific are recognized as the main sources influencing the diversity of ENSO evolution.

The impact of tropical Atlantic SST variability on the tropical atmosphere during boreal summer

AbstractThe interannual variability of boreal summer sea surface temperature (SST) in the tropical Atlantic displays two dominant modes, the Atlantic zonal mode highlighting SST variations in the equatorial–southern tropical Atlantic (ESTA) region and the northern tropical Atlantic (NTA) mode focusing on SST fluctuations in the NTA region except in the Gulf of Guinea. Observational evidence indicates that both the boreal summer ESTA and NTA warming are accompanied by a pair of anomalous low-level anti-cyclones over the western tropical Pacific, and the NTA-related anti-cyclone is more obvious than the ESTA-related one. Both atmosphere-only and partially coupled experiments conducted with the Community Earth System Model Version 1.2 support the observed NTA–Pacific teleconnection. In contrast, the ESTA-induced atmospheric circulation response is negligible over the tropical Pacific in the atmosphere-only experiments, and though the response becomes stronger in the partially coupled experiments, obvious difference still exists between the simulations and observation. The ESTA-induced atmospheric circulation response is featured by an anomalous low-level cyclone over the western tropical Pacific in the partially coupled experiments, opposite to its observed counterpart. It is found that the ESTA warming coincides with significantly La Niña-like SST anomalies in the central–eastern equatorial Pacific, the influence of which on the tropical atmospheric circulation is opposite to that of the ESTA warming, and therefore contributes to difference between the ESTA-related simulations and observation. Moreover, the cold climatological mean SST in the ESTA region is unfavourable to enhancing the ESTA–Pacific teleconnection during boreal summer.

Asymmetric relationship between ENSO and the tropical Indian Ocean summer SST anomalies

AbstractDuring the summer following El Niño, a basin-wide sea surface temperature (SST) warming takes place over the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), exerting profound influences on the Asian summer monsoon. This is an important source of seasonal predictability for the Asian summer monsoon. Based on observations, however, the present study finds that the relationship between El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the TIO SST anomalies during the decaying summer is asymmetric with a much weaker relationship between La Niña and the TIO SST anomalies relative to El Niño. The analyses show that this asymmetric relationship can be explained by the asymmetries in initial TIO SST, oceanic Rossby wave in the southern Indian Ocean and ENSO decaying rate. In contrast to El Niño events, La Niña events tend to have a stronger initial TIO warming and a less peak intensity with a weaker oceanic Rossby wave response in the southern Indian Ocean. On the other hand, La Niña events tend to decay more slowly with the persistent SST cooling over the central equatorial Pacific in the following summer. The equatorial Pacific SST cooling would induce an anomalous anticyclone via a Gill-type Rossby wave response, weakening the positive feedback between the anomalous cyclone spanning the tropical Northwest Pacific and North Indian oceans and the TIO summer basin-wide SST cooling. These results have important implications for the climate predictability of the Indian Ocean and Asian summer monsoon.

Impacts of the combined modes of the tropical Indo‐Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies on the tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific

This work presents two combined modes of the summer sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the tropical Indo‐Pacific Ocean during 1979–2015 and investigates their influences on the tropical cyclone (TC) genesis frequency (TCGF) over the western North Pacific (WNP). The first mode (referred to as ENSO‐IODM) features Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) SSTAs in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) and El Niño‐like SSTAs in the tropical Pacific Ocean (TPO) and often appears during the ENSO phase persistence summers. It usually triggers an anomalous cyclone and more TCs over the southeastern WNP together with an anomalous anticyclone and fewer TCs over the northwestern WNP. These are primarily attributed to the effect of the El Niño‐like SSTAs over the TPO. The second mode (referred to as ENM‐IOBM) is characterized by Indian Ocean basin (IOB) positive SSTAs in the TIO and La Niña Modoki‐like (ENSO Modoki; ENM) SSTAs in the TPO and often presents during the ENSO phase transition summers. The combined effects of the IOBM and ENM SSTAs induce an anomalous anticyclone over the WNP that significantly suppresses TC genesis over the central WNP.The impacts of the two combined modes on the WNP TCGF also reveal inter‐decadal changes with significant weakening of the ENSO‐IODM and strengthening of the ENM‐IOBM around the early 1990s. These are attributed to the weakened variability of the ENSO‐IODM and intensified variability of the ENM‐IOBM around the early 1990s, and show largely association with the changes in the ENSO cycle. Most of the ENSO events prior to the early 1990s show a long decaying phase with persistence features but exhibit a short decaying phase even with phase transition after the early 1990s. This brings more ENSO‐IODM structures in the summer TIPO SSTAs before the early 1990s and more ENM‐IOBM structures during the latter period, and thereby results in such above inter‐decadal changes.

Diversity of the Pacific–Japan Pattern among CMIP5 Models: Role of SST Anomalies and Atmospheric Mean Flow

This study investigates the reproducibility of the spatial structure and amplitude of the observed Pacific–Japan (PJ) pattern in the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. In particular, the role of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and atmospheric mean flow in the diverse reproducibility of the PJ pattern among models is investigated. Based on the pattern correlation between simulated and observed PJ patterns, models are categorized into high and low correlation groups, referred to as HCG and LCG, respectively. The observed cold SSTAs in the western North Pacific (WNP) and equatorial central Pacific, organized convection and precipitation anomalies, and Rossby wave response are reproduced well in HCG models, whereas these features are not present in LCG models. The summer SSTAs are closely tied to the preceding El Niño–Southern Oscillation and its temporal evolution in the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean in both observations and models, but the SSTAs in the Indian Ocean are weak in both HCG and LCG, implying a weak Indian Ocean capacitor effect. As a result, the reproducibility of the amplitude of the WNP center of the PJ pattern is mainly modulated by the SSTAs and local air–sea feedback over the WNP in the models. On the other hand, a model with stronger climatological southerly along the coast of East Asia tends to produce more realistic amplitude of the midlatitude center of the PJ pattern with clearer poleward wave-activity fluxes due to more efficient local barotropic energy conversion from the mean flow.

Persistence of Summer Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in the Midlatitude North Pacific and Its Interdecadal Variability

The present study investigates the persistence of summer sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the midlatitude North Pacific and its interdecadal variability. Summer SSTAs can persist for a long time (approximately 8–14 months) around the Kuroshio Extension (KE) region. This long persistence may be strongly related to atmospheric forcing because the mixed layer is too shallow in the summer to be influenced by the anomalies at depths in the ocean. Changes in atmospheric circulation, latent heat flux, and longwave radiation flux all contribute to the long persistence of summer SSTAs. Among these factors, the longwave radiation flux has a dominant influence. The effects of sensible heat flux and shortwave radiation flux anomalies are not significant. The persistence of summer SSTAs displays pronounced interdecadal variability around the KE region, and the variability is very weak during 1950–82 but becomes stronger during 1983–2016. The changes in atmospheric circulation, latent heat flux, and longwave radiation flux are also responsible for this interdecadal variability because their forcings on the summer SSTAs are sustained for much longer after 1982.

Two new sea surface temperature anomalies indices for capturing the eastern and central equatorial Pacific type El Niño‐Southern Oscillation events during boreal summer

Using monthly mean data from the Hadley Center and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction‐National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP‐NCAR) reanalysis, we have constructed two new indices ICP and IEP of boreal summer sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in equatorial Pacific for period of 1963–2016 by employing methods including the six‐order polynomial fitting and pattern correlations. The new indices ICP and IEP are almost independent of each other. Using these two indices, we are able to successfully capture the main features of central Pacific (CP) and eastern Pacific (EP) type SSTA variations in tropical Pacific in both spatial and temporal. The EP‐type SSTA events vary on inter‐annual timescales whereas CP‐type events vary on both inter‐annual and inter‐decadal. For the CP‐type events, stronger positive (negative) SST anomalies are observed in central tropical Pacific while weaker SSTA in the Maritime Continent (MC) and eastern equatorial Pacific during positive (negative) phase of index ICP. However, For EP‐type events, the stronger SSTAs appear in both the equatorial Pacific region east of dateline and Peruvian coastal ocean while weaker SSTAs in MC and western equatorial Pacific regions. Both the anomalous heating induced by CP‐ and EP‐type SSTA may force the atmosphere to respond, resulting in different types of anomalous patterns of circulations, rainfall, and near‐surface air temperatures. These results indicate that the new indexes are useful for our better investigating the CP‐ and EP‐type summer SSTA events as well as their climate impacts, thereby providing a clue to monitoring and predicting strong SSTA events in equatorial Pacific.

Remote SST forcing on Indian summer monsoon extreme years in AGCM experiments

ABSTRACTAn ensemble of AMIP‐type experiments with prescribed interannual varying sea surface temperature (SST) and different initial conditions is used to study the relationship between Indian summer monsoon extreme conditions and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Based on the selection of extreme monsoon rainfall years ‘In Phase’ or ‘Out of Phase’ with respect to the observations, this study identifies specific SST and atmospheric circulation patterns responsible for the remote forcing on the monsoon. A clear common characteristic of externally forced extreme monsoon years is identified with an ENSO pattern having summer SST anomalies of the same sign in the tropical Pacific Ocean but also in the Indian and Atlantic tropical sectors. This finding assumes that the SST pattern in summer is enough to modulate the Walker circulation and consequently to suppress or enhance convection over South Asia, even if it does not evolve into an ENSO event. The analysis of the ‘Out of Phase’ cases (i.e. when the model reproduces a weak monsoon instead of a strong one, or the reverse) reveals how the model wrongly responds to the SST forcing, ignoring other processes like ocean–atmosphere coupling. Once ENSO is linearly removed the main source of remote forcing for strong (weak) monsoon characteristics over India is the tropical Atlantic with negative (positive) anomalies, and with weak anomalies of the same sign located in the south Indian Ocean. The results of the role of the forcing from the tropical Atlantic are also confirmed by a set of atmospheric model experiments where interannually varying SST is prescribed only in the Atlantic Ocean, while the rest of the SST is climatological.

Influence of the Summer NAO on the Spring-NAO-Based Predictability of the East Asian Summer Monsoon

AbstractThe dominant mode of atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic region is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The boreal spring NAO may imprint its signal on contemporaneous sea surface temperature (SST), leading to a North Atlantic SST tripolar pattern (NAST). This pattern persists into the following summer and modulates the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). Previous studies have shown that the summer NAST is caused mainly by the preceding spring NAO, whereas the contemporaneous summer NAO plays a secondary role. The results of this study illustrate that, even if the summer NAO plays a secondary role, it may also perturb summer SST anomalies caused by the spring NAO. There are two types of perturbation caused by the summer NAO. If the spring and summer NAO patterns have the same (opposite) polarities, the summer NAST tends to be enhanced (reduced) by the summer NAO, and the correlation between the spring NAO and EASM is usually stronger (weaker). In the former (latter) case, the spring-NAO-based prediction of the EASM tends to have better (limited) skill. These results indicate that it is important to consider the evolution of the NAO when forecasting the EASM, particular when there is a clear reversal in the polarity of the NAO, because it may impair the spring-NAO-based EASM prediction.

Boreal winter Arctic Oscillation as an indicator of summer SST anomalies over the western tropical Indian Ocean

The inter-annual relationship between the boreal winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) and summer sea surface temperature (SST) over the western tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) for the period from 1979 to 2015 is investigated. The results show that the January–February–March AO is significantly correlated with the June–July–August SST and SST tendency. When both El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) variance are excluded, the winter AO is significantly correlated with the regional mean SST of the western TIO (40 $$^\circ$$ – $$60^\circ$$ E and $$10^\circ$$ S– $$10^\circ$$ N), $$r=0.71$$ . The multi-month SST tendency, i.e., the SST difference of June–July–August minus April–May, is correlated with the winter AO at $$r=0.75$$ . Composite analysis indicates similar warming over the western TIO. Two statistical models are established to predict the subsequent summer’s SST and SST tendency. The models use the winter AO, the winter ENSO and the autumn-winter IOD indexes as predictors and explain 65 and 62 % of the variance of the subsequent summer’s SST and SST tendency, respectively. Investigation of the regional air–sea fluxes and oceanic dynamics reveals that the net surface heat flux cannot account for the warming, whereas the oceanic Rossby wave plays a predominant role. During positive AO winters, the enhanced Arabian High causes stronger northern winds in the northern Indian Ocean and leads to anomalous cross-equatorial air-flow. The Ekman pumping in association with the anomalous wind stress curl in the central TIO generates a significantly deeper thermocline and above-normal sea surface height at 60 $$^\circ$$ –75 $$^\circ$$ E and 5 $$^\circ$$ – $$10^\circ$$ S. The winter AO-forced Rossby wave propagates westward and arrives at the western coast in summer, resulting in the significant SST increase. Forced by the observed winter AO-related wind stress anomalies over the Indian Ocean, the ocean model reasonably reproduces the Rossby wave as well as the resulting surface ocean warming over the western TIO in the subsequent summer. Observational analysis and numerical experiments suggest the importance of the oceanic dynamics in connecting the winter AO and summer SST anomalies.

Contribution of the Yellow Sea bottom cold water to the abnormal cooling of sea surface temperature in the summer of 2011

AbstractSatellite‐based sea surface temperature (SST) measurements revealed an abnormal cooling anomaly over the Yellow Sea (YS) in the summer of 2011. Using in situ hydrographic profiles, meteorological fields, and an ocean circulation model with a passive tracer experiment, we identified the cold SST anomaly and its connection with the YS Bottom Cold Water (YSBCW), which occupies the central part of the YS below the thermocline in the summer. The summer SST anomalies in the YS showed three cold peaks in 1993, 2003, and 2011 over the past 20 years, but the reasons for the cooling events were different, as one was due to weakened surface heating and the other was attributed to mixing with the YSBCW. In 1993 and 2003, relatively weak surface heating made the surface water cooler compared with that during the other years, whereas in 2011, a strong vertical mixing of water was induced by a typhoon that passed through the central YS, causing the surface water to cool by ∼8°C and the bottom water to warm up by ∼4°C. A tracer experiment further confirmed that the vertical heat transfers between the warm surface and the cold bottom water masses when the typhoon passed through the YS interior.

Interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the western North Pacific summer climate around the late 1970s and early 1990s

Identifying predictability and the corresponding sources for the western North Pacific (WNP) summer climate in the case of non-stationary teleconnections during recent decades benefits for further improvements of long-range prediction on the WNP and East Asian summers. In the past few decades, pronounced increases on the summer sea surface temperature (SST) and associated interannual variability are observed over the tropical Indian Ocean and eastern Pacific around the late 1970s and over the Maritime Continent and western–central Pacific around the early 1990s. These increases are associated with significant enhancements of the interannual variability for the lower-tropospheric wind over the WNP. In this study, we further assess interdecadal changes on the seasonal prediction of the WNP summer anomalies, using May-start retrospective forecasts from the ENSEMBLES multi-model project in the period 1960–2005. It is found that prediction of the WNP summer anomalies exhibits an interdecadal shift with higher prediction skills since the late 1970s, particularly after the early 1990s. Improvements of the prediction skills for SSTs after the late 1970s are mainly found around tropical Indian Ocean and the WNP. The better prediction of the WNP after the late 1970s may arise mainly from the improvement of the SST prediction around the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. The close teleconnections between the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and WNP summer variability work both in the model predictions and observations. After the early 1990s, on the other hand, the improvements are detected mainly around the South China Sea and Philippines for the lower-tropospheric zonal wind and precipitation anomalies, associating with a better description of the SST anomalies around the Maritime Continent. A dipole SST pattern over the Maritime Continent and the central equatorial Pacific Ocean is closely related to the WNP summer anomalies after the early 1990s. This teleconnection mode is quite predictable, which is realistically reproduced by the models, presenting more predictable signals to the WNP summer climate after the early 1990s.

Reemergence Mechanisms for North Pacific Sea Ice Revealed through Nonlinear Laplacian Spectral Analysis*

Abstract This paper studies spatiotemporal modes of variability of sea ice concentration and sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific sector in a comprehensive climate model and observations. These modes are obtained via nonlinear Laplacian spectral analysis (NLSA), a recently developed data analysis technique for high-dimensional nonlinear datasets. The existing NLSA algorithm is modified to allow for a scale-invariant coupled analysis of multiple variables in different physical units. The coupled NLSA modes are utilized to investigate North Pacific sea ice reemergence: a process in which sea ice anomalies originating in the melt season (spring) are positively correlated with anomalies in the growth season (fall) despite a loss of correlation in the intervening summer months. It is found that a low-dimensional family of NLSA modes is able to reproduce the lagged correlations observed in sea ice data from the North Pacific Ocean. This mode family exists in both model output and observations and is closely related to the North Pacific gyre oscillation (NPGO), a low-frequency pattern of North Pacific SST variability. Moreover, this mode family provides a mechanism for sea ice reemergence in which summer SST anomalies store the memory of spring sea ice anomalies, allowing for sea ice anomalies of the same sign to appear in the fall season. Lagged correlations in model output and observations are significantly strengthened by conditioning on the NPGO mode being active, in either positive or negative phase. Another family of NLSA modes, related to the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), is found to capture a winter-to-winter reemergence of SST anomalies.

A dipole pattern in the Indian and Pacific oceans and its relationship with the East Asian summer monsoon

This study demonstrates a robust relationship between the Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) and North Pacific Ocean dipole (IPOD) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) using observational datasets and sensitivity tests from the Community Atmosphere Model version 3.1 of the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The IPOD, which is a significant pattern of boreal summer SSTA in the Indian and Pacific oceans characterized by positive (negative) sea-surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the North Pacific and negative (positive) SSTA in the IPWP, appears around May, intensifies in the following months, and weakens in September. In summers with a positive IPOD phase, the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) weakens and shrinks with the axis of the WPSH ridge moving northwards, which favours an intensified EASM and a decrease in summer rainfall in the Yangtze River valley, and vice versa.

Alaska tidewater glacier terminus positions, 1948–2012

A significant portion of the world's glacier ice drains through tidewater outlets, though much remains unknown about the response to recent climate change of tidewater glaciers. We present a 64 year record of length change for 50 Alaska tidewater glaciers. We use U.S. Geological Survey topographic maps to provide a base length for glaciers before 1970. Using all available cloud‐free Landsat images, we manually digitize calving front outlines for each glacier between 1972 and 2012, resulting in a total of more than 10,000 outlines. Tidewater glacier lengths vary seasonally; focusing on the 36 glaciers terminating in tidewater throughout the study period, we find a mean (± standard deviation) seasonal variation of 60± 85 m a−1. We use these oscillations to determine the significance of interannual changes in glacier length. All 36 glaciers underwent at least one period (≥1 year) of significant advance or retreat; 28 glaciers underwent at least one period of both significant advance and retreat. Over the entire period 1948–2012, 24 of these glaciers retreated a total (± uncertainty) of 107.95±0.29 km, 11 advanced a total of 7.71±0.20, and one (Chenega Glacier) did not change significantly. Retreats and advances are highly variable in time; several glaciers underwent rapid, short‐term retreats of a few years duration. These retreats occurred after large changes in summer sea surface temperature anomalies; further study is needed to determine what triggered these retreats. No coherent regional behavior signal is apparent in the length record, although two subregions show a coherence similar to recent observations in Greenland.

Atmospheric response to the North Atlantic Ocean variability on seasonal to decadal time scales

The NCEP twentieth century reanalyis and a 500-year control simulation with the IPSL-CM5 climate model are used to assess the influence of ocean-atmosphere coupling in the North Atlantic region at seasonal to decadal time scales. At the seasonal scale, the air-sea interaction patterns are similar in the model and observations. In both, a statistically significant summer sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly with a horseshoe shape leads an atmospheric signal that resembles the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the winter. The air-sea interactions in the model thus seem realistic, although the amplitude of the atmospheric signal is half that observed, and it is detected throughout the cold season, while it is significant only in late fall and early winter in the observations. In both model and observations, the North Atlantic horseshoe SST anomaly pattern is in part generated by the spring and summer internal atmospheric variability. In the model, the influence of the ocean dynamics can be assessed and is found to contribute to the SST anomaly, in particular at the decadal scale. Indeed, the North Atlantic SST anomalies that follow an intensification of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) by about 9 years, or an intensification of a clockwise intergyre gyre in the Atlantic Ocean by 6 years, resemble the horseshoe pattern, and are also similar to the model Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). As the AMOC is shown to have a significant impact on the winter NAO, most strongly when it leads by 9 years, the decadal interactions in the model are consistent with the seasonal analysis. In the observations, there is also a strong correlation between the AMO and the SST horseshoe pattern that influences the NAO. The analogy with the coupled model suggests that the natural variability of the AMOC and the gyre circulation might influence the climate of the North Atlantic region at the decadal scale.