Summer Discharge Research Articles

Do fish go with the flow? The effects of periodic and episodic flow pulses on 0+ fish biomass in a constrained lowland river

AbstractThe hydrological regime is a significant driver of fish population dynamics in rivers, but there is a dearth of information regarding the mechanisms behind its effects on temperate species, especially non‐salmonids. This study investigated the effects of periodic and episodic flow pulses on 0+ fish biomass in a constrained lowland river. De‐seasonalized cross‐correlation analysis was used to examine time‐lagged correlations in episodic signals, in isolation of seasonal periodicity, to identify the responses and response timings of 0+ fish production to abiotic variables, and whether apparent “pulse‐depletions” in biomass occur instantaneously (e.g., due to fish displacement during high pulses) or after a time lag. As anticipated, 0+ fish biomass was highest during periods of low discharge and high temperatures in summer, but cross‐correlation analysis revealed a negative impact of high pulses on 0+ fish biomass with a lag of 7 months. There was no evidence for an instantaneous pulse‐depletion effect of discharge on 0+ fish biomass, suggesting that the indirect effects of high pulses, such as habitat or food‐web modifications, are more influential.

Seasonal dynamics of dissolved, particulate and microbial components of a tidal saltmarsh-dominated estuary under contrasting levels of freshwater discharge

Tidal Spartina-dominated saltmarshes and estuaries on the Southeast US coast are global hotspots of productivity. In coastal Georgia, tidal amplitudes and saltmarsh productivity are the highest along the Southeast US coast. Coastal Georgia is characterized by a humid subtropical seasonal climate, and inter-annual variability in precipitation, and freshwater discharge. The 2012–2013 timeframe encompassed contrasting levels of discharge for the Savannah River, a major Georgia river, with a 4.3-fold greater discharge in summer 2013 relative to summer 2012. In situ measurements of temperature, salinity, precipitation and Secchi depth, and water samples were collected weekly at high tide throughout 2012 and 2013 from the Skidaway River Estuary, a tidal saltmarsh-dominated estuary in coastal Georgia influenced by Savannah River hydrology. The effects of elevated discharge on the seasonal trends of water column components were evaluated. The shift from low discharge (2012) to high discharge (2013) led to decreased salinity in summer 2013, but no significant increases in inorganic nutrient (NH4, NOx, SiO2 and PO4) concentrations. Dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) concentrations decreased, and DIC stable isotopic signatures (δ13C-DIC values) were depleted in summer 2013 relative to summer 2012. In 2013 dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations, chromophoric and fluorescent dissolved organic matter (DOM: CDOM, FDOM) intensities, specific UV-absorbance (SUVA254) and relative humic-like fluorescence were all higher than in 2012, indicating that, as discharge increased in 2013, estuarine water became enriched in terrigenous DOM. Secchi depth and particulate organic carbon (POC) and nitrogen (PON) concentrations displayed clear seasonal patterns that were not significantly altered by discharge. However, δ13C-POC and δ15N-PON isotopic signatures indicated higher terrigenous contributions at elevated discharge. Discharge influenced cyanobacterial composition, but did not affect total abundance of phytoplankton (<52 μm) or chlorophyll-a concentrations, a proxy for phytoplankton biomass. Phytoplankton community dynamics were primarily seasonally-driven. Bacterioplankton abundance and community composition, based upon flow cytometry, were affected by discharge, possibly due to decreased salinity and/or increased inputs of terrigenous DOM. Seasonal patterns in inorganic nutrient, POC, PON and chlorophyll-a concentrations, and Secchi depth were not significantly influenced by the 2013 increase in discharge. For other components, most notably δ13C-DIC values, DOM and bacterioplankton, the influence of increased discharge in 2013 was superimposed upon their seasonal patterns. This study showed that in addition to tidal mixing and in situ saltmarsh and estuarine production and removal processes, the level of riverine freshwater discharge impacted the quantity and character of many water column components in this tidal saltmarsh ecosystem.

Growth, Condition and Survival of Three Forage Fish Species Exposed to Two Different Experimental Hydropeaking Regimes in a Regulated River

AbstractHydroelectric dam operation can alter discharge and temperature patterns, impacting fish populations downstream. Previous investigations into the effects of river regulation on fish have focused on a single species within a river, yet different results among studies suggest the potential for species‐specific impacts. Here, we compare the impacts of two different hydropeaking regimes relative to a naturally flowing river on three ecologically important members of the forage fish community: longnose dace (Rhinichthys cataractae), slimy sculpin (Cottus cognatus) and trout‐perch (Percopsis omiscomaycus). Annual growth, estimated from otolith back‐calculations, was higher for each of the species in the regulated river relative to the naturally flowing river but did not differ between hydropeaking regimes. Condition was assessed using weight–length relationships and differed between rivers for each species, and between hydropeaking regimes for longnose dace and slimy sculpin. Survival of longnose dace and slimy sculpin was lower in the regulated river relative to the naturally flowing river, but comparable between rivers for trout‐perch. Annual growth was significantly related to mean summer discharge in the regulated river and to mean summer water temperature in the naturally flowing river for each species, and significantly different slopes among species indicate species‐specific responses to discharge and temperature alterations. This study demonstrates different biological responses among fish species within rivers to regulation in general, as well as to specific hydropeaking regimes. Future studies should focus on multiple species and multiple indicators of fish health to more fully characterize the impacts of river regulation on downstream fish communities. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.

Climate influences on Vaal River flow

A study of climatic influences on Vaal River discharge, near Johannesburg, South Africa, finds that peak summer flows in the period 1979–2014 coincide with ocean–atmosphere interaction in the east Atlantic. The analysis has three parts: interannual influences by correlation of summer discharge with climate fields, atmosphere and ocean composites of 14 peak flow months, and a case study flood in January 2010 and its regional scale forcing. Inter-annual links are established with low pressure over the east Atlantic and an eastward equatorial ocean current and suppressed upwelling in the northern Benguela. During the January 2010 flood in the Vaal River, flow increased to 2 801 m 3 /s. There was a low salinity plume and warm sea temperatures off Angola > 29°C. A terrestrial vegetation fraction > 0.6 and corresponding latent heat fluxes enriched NW-cloud bands over the Vaal River catchment, during the flood case study of January 2010. Comparison of (Pacific) Southern Oscillation and east Atlantic influence on Vaal River discharge reveals the former drives evaporative losses while the latter provides an advance warning of flow variability. Keywords : Vaal River, hydro-meteorology, climate influence

Flood frequency matters: Why climate change degrades deep-water quality of peri-alpine lakes

Sediment-laden riverine floods transport large quantities of dissolved oxygen into the receiving deep layers of lakes. Hence, the water quality of deep lakes is strongly influenced by the frequency of riverine floods. Although flood frequency reflects climate conditions, the effects of climate variability on the water quality of deep lakes is largely unknown. We quantified the effects of climate variability on the potential shifts in the flood regime of the Alpine Rhine, the main catchment of Lake Constance, and determined the intrusion depths of riverine density-driven underflows and the subsequent effects on water exchange rates in the lake. A simplified hydrodynamic underflow model was developed and validated with observed river inflow and underflow events. The model was implemented to estimate underflow statistics for different river inflow scenarios. Using this approach, we integrated present and possible future flood frequencies to underflow occurrences and intrusion depths in Lake Constance. The results indicate that more floods will increase the number of underflows and the intensity of deep-water renewal – and consequently will cause higher deep-water dissolved oxygen concentrations. Vice versa, fewer floods weaken deep-water renewal and lead to lower deep-water dissolved oxygen concentrations. Meanwhile, a change from glacial nival regime (present) to a nival pluvial regime (future) is expected to decrease deep-water renewal. While flood frequencies are not expected to change noticeably for the next decades, it is most likely that increased winter discharge and decreased summer discharge will reduce the number of deep density-driven underflows by 10% and favour shallower riverine interflows in the upper hypolimnion. The renewal in the deepest layers is expected to be reduced by nearly 27%. This study underlines potential consequences of climate change on the occurrence of deep river underflows and water residence times in deep lakes.

Projections for headwater catchments of the Tarim River reveal glacier retreat and decreasing surface water availability but uncertainties are large

In the Tarim River Basin, water resources from the mountain areas play a key role due to the extremely arid climate of the lowlands. This study presents an analysis of future climate change impacts on glaciers and surface water availability for headwater catchments of the Aksu River, the most important tributary to the Tarim River. We applied a glacio-hydrological model that underwent a comprehensive multivariable and multiobjective model calibration and evaluation, based on daily and interannual discharge variations and glacier mass changes. Transient glacier geometry changes are simulated using the Δh-approach. For the ensemble-based projections, we considered three different emission scenarios, nine global climate models (GCMs) and two regional climate models, and different hydrological model parameters derived from the multiobjective calibration. The results show a decline in glacier area of −90% to −32% until 2099 (reference ∼2008) (based on the 5–95 percentile range of the ensemble). Glacier melt is anticipated to further increase or stay at a high level during the first decades of the 21st century, but then declines because of decreased glacier extents. Overall discharge in the Aksu headwaters is expected to be increased in the period 2010–2039 (reference 1971–2000), but decreased in 2070–2099. Seasonally, projections show an increase in discharge in spring and early summer throughout the 21st century. Discharge changes in mid to late summer are more variable, with increases or decreases depending on the considered period and GCM. Uncertainties are largely caused by differences between the different GCMs, with further important contributions from different emission scenarios in the second half of the 21st century. Contributions from the hydrological model parameters to the ensemble uncertainty were generally found to be small.

Seasonal heat and freshwater cycles in the Arctic Ocean in CMIP5 coupled models

AbstractThis study examines the processes governing the seasonal response of the Arctic Ocean and sea ice to surface forcings as they appear in historical simulations of 14 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 coupled climate models. In both models and observations, the seasonal heat budget is dominated by a local balance between net surface heating and storage in the heat content of the ocean and in melting/freezing of sea ice. Observations suggest ocean heat storage is more important than sea ice melt, while in most of these models, sea ice melt dominates. Seasonal horizontal heat flux divergence driven by the seasonal cycle of volume transport is only important locally. In models and observations, the dominant terms in the basin‐average seasonal freshwater budget are the storages of freshwater between the ocean and sea ice, and the exchange between the two. The largest external source term is continental discharge in early summer, which is an order of magnitude smaller. The appearance of sea ice (extent and volume) and also ocean stratification in both the heat and freshwater budgets provides two links between the budgets and provides two mechanisms for feedback. One consequence of such an interaction is the fact that models with strong/weak seasonal surface heating also have strong/weak seasonal haline and temperature stratification.

Simulating the hydrologic impacts of land-cover and climate changes in a semi-arid watershed

Changes in climate and land cover are among the principal variables affecting watershed hydrology. This paper uses a cell-based model to examine the hydrologic impacts of climate and land-cover changes in the semi-arid Lower Virgin River (LVR) watershed located upstream of Lake Mead, Nevada, USA. The cell-based model is developed by considering direct runoff based on the Soil Conservation Service - Curve Number (SCS-CN) method and surplus runoff based on the Thornthwaite water balance theory. After calibration and validation, the model is used to predict LVR discharge under future climate and land-cover changes. The hydrologic simulation results reveal climate change as the dominant factor and land-cover change as a secondary factor in regulating future river discharge. The combined effects of climate and land-cover changes will slightly increase river discharge in summer but substantially decrease discharge in winter. This impact on water resources deserves attention in climate change adaptation planning.Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz

Mechanism for sediment convergence in the anthropogenically altered microtidal Nakdong Estuary, South Korea

Abstract Previous sedimentological work has shown that throughout the last half-century, average sediment accumulation of 2–6 cm yr− 1 occurred due to the emplacement of estuarine dams and land reclamation in the Nakdong Estuary of South Korea (Williams et al., 2013). To investigate the timing and rate of sedimentation, two sonar altimeters were deployed for nearly a year. In the West Nakdong River, where there is no freshwater discharge from the dam, 4 cm of gradual sedimentation was observed, corresponding to the long-term average accumulation. On the other hand, episodic sedimentation of 6 cm, which also corresponds to the long-term accumulation rate, was observed during two months of summer discharge in the main East Eulsuk Channel. To examine the mechanisms of sedimentation, Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers at three sites measured current velocity and acoustically-derived suspended sediment concentration during increased discharge and wave activity events, and through spring and neap tidal cycles. Sediment flux was decomposed into tidal pumping and advection terms to determine the primary factors controlling sedimentation throughout the estuary. Downstream sediment fluxes were dominated by mean advection, particularly during large discharge events. The difference in the magnitude between the upper and lower stations has been determined to be the main mechanism for convergence of flux (deposition) in the central estuary. In the absence of strong discharge, residual sediment transport caused a flux into the estuary, suggesting the primary mechanism for gradual deposition throughout the year in the West Nakdong River where discharge is entirely blocked.

The response time of the Changjiang plume to river discharge in summer

A three-dimensional numerical model was used to study the response time of the Changjiang (Yangtze) River plume to river discharge by artificially increasing the runoff over a short period and investigating the variation of salinity in the plume region. The time lagged between the change of river discharge and the change of salinity that reaches the 10% of the adjusted value is considered as the response time in this study. The response times in the plume region differed slightly when the river discharge during the spring tide and the neap tide was increased. Specifically, the response times near the river mouth and in the plume edge were ~1days and more than 15days, respectively. The brackish water volumes were also calculated to determine the variations in the plume extensions over time. A tracer was released to study the transport time from the Datong station to the East China Sea using the concept of water age. The tracer transport time ranged from 10days near the river mouth to more than 50days at the edge of the plume, which is much longer than the response time of the surface salinity.

Effects of reservoirs on seasonal discharge of Irtysh River measured by Lepage test

The Irtysh River is an international river partially joining the territories of China, Kazakhstan, and Russia. Cascade reservoirs have been constructed in the upper reaches of the river and their effects on the seasonal discharge of the middle and lower reaches were analyzed considering the mean and dispersion of the seasonal discharge. The Lepage test, which is a nonparametric, two-sample test for detecting location and dispersion, was used to measure the significance of difference between the pre-dam and post-dam seasonal discharge. The results show that the reservoirs' effects on the seasonal discharge varied with the season. In the middle reaches of the river, the summer and autumn discharge decreased significantly and their inter-annual variabilities also decreased significantly. The summer and autumn precipitation over the Irtysh River Basin changed little before and after the operation of the reservoir, which indicates that the discharge changes mainly due to water storage of the reservoirs. The reservoirs store water in summer and autumn and store more water in a wet year, which leads to the reduction of the mean and dispersion of the summer and autumn discharge. The winter discharge increased significantly because the reservoirs released water for power generation. The spring discharge changed slightly. In the lower reaches, only the winter discharge increased significantly, and the other seasonal discharge changed slightly. The reservoirs' effects on the seasonal discharge are more significant in the middle reaches than in the lower reaches.

The Thirsty Eel: Summer and Winter Flow Thresholds that Tilt the Eel River of Northwestern California from Salmon-Supporting to Cyanobacterially Degraded States

Although it flows through regions of northwestern California that are thought to be relatively well watered, the Eel River is increasingly stressed by drought and water withdrawals. We discuss how critical threshold changes in summer discharge can potentially tilt the Eel from a recovering salmon-supporting ecosystem toward a cyanobacterially degraded one. To maintain food webs and habitats that support salmonids and suppress harmful cyanobacteria, summer discharge must be sufficient to connect mainstem pools hydrologically with gently moving, cool base flow. Rearing salmon and steelhead can survive even in pools that become isolated during summer low flows if hyporheic exchange is sufficient. But if the ground water discharge that sustains river flow during summer drought drops below critical levels, warm stagnant conditions will kill salmonids, and cyanobacteria will thrive. Challenges and opportunities for restoring the Eel and increasing its resilience to climate extremes, water diversions, and excess...

Differences in the vertical distribution and response to freshwater discharge between aloricate ciliates and tintinnids in the East China Sea

Marine planktonic ciliates are important components of microzooplankton. Depending on the presence or absence of lorica, planktonic ciliates can be divided into tintinnids and aloricate ciliates. We hypothesize that the ecological distributions of the two groups were different due to their difference in morphology. To test this hypothesis, the spatial distribution of ciliates was studied in spring, summer and autumn 2011 in the East China Sea, a large marginal sea significantly affected by freshwater discharge. We found that tintinnids and aloricate ciliates had different vertical distributions. Tintinnids were distributed mainly near the bottom waters, while higher abundance of aloricate ciliate was found in waters 30–70m above the bottom. The contribution of tintinnids to the total ciliate abundance decreased with increasing distance from the bottom. In waters with distance from the bottom >80m, tintinnids accounted for <10% of the total ciliate abundance. The Changjiang River discharge in summer enhanced aloricate ciliate abundance compared with spring and autumn, although tintinnid abundance did not change significantly. Tintinnidium primitivum was the dominant tintinnid near the bottom waters. Our study clearly showed that aloricate ciliates and tintinnids had different vertical distributions and responses to freshwater discharge in the East China Sea.

River inundation suggests ice-sheet runoff retention

AbstractThe Greenland ice sheet is experiencing dramatic melt that is likely to continue with rapid Arctic warming. However, the proportion of meltwater stored before reaching the global ocean remains difficult to quantify. We use NASA MODIS surface reflectance data to estimate river discharge from two West Greenland rivers – the Watson River near Kangerlussuaq and the Naujat Kuat River near Nuuk – over the summers of 2000–12. By comparison with in situ river discharge observations, ‘inundation–discharge’ relations were constructed for both rivers. MODIS-based total annual discharges agree well with total discharge estimated from in situ observations (86% of summer discharge in 2009 to 96% in 2011 at the Watson River, and 106% of total discharge in 2011 to 104% in 2012 at the Naujat Kuat River). We find, however, that a time-lapse camera, deployed at the Watson River in summer 2012, better captures the variations in observed discharge, benefiting from fewer data gaps due to clouds. The MODIS-derived estimates indicate that summer discharge has not significantly increased over the last decade, despite a strong warming trend. Also, meltwater runoff estimates derived from the regional climate model RACMO2/GR for the drainage basins are higher than our reconstructions of river discharge. These results provide indirect evidence for a considerable component of water storage within the glacio-hydrological system.

New data on biology of siberian cisco &lt;i&gt;Coregonus sardinella&lt;/i&gt; (Coregonidae) from the Anadyr River

The data on biology of siberian cisco were collected during its spawning migration in the middle stream of the Anadyr River in September-October of 2010-2011 and during the feeding of mature fish in the Anadyr estuary in June-August of 2011. Besides, the data collected previously in 1987 and 1992 were processed with modern research techniques. The bulk of spawning lake-river cisco is the fish of the age 5+ years with the length 206-218 mm and weight 81-103 g; the feeding cisco in the estuary has mainly the age 4-6+ years, mean length 233.0 ± 4.4 mm and mean weight 119 ± 11 g. Cisco females are larger than males: the maximum size of females is 255 mm with the weight 167 g (age 7+) and the maximum size of males is 249 mm with the weight 160 g (age 7+). Modern age structure of spawning cisco is rejuvenated comparing with that in 1987 and 1992: the maximum age of cisco is now 3 years less, and the average age is 1 year less. The portions of large-sized and medium-sized mature fish became less, too, as well as the average length and weight became 36 mm and 78 g less for females, and 30 mm and 47 g less for males. Recently only 6 age groups of cisco spawn (from 3+ to 8+, mainly 5-6-years) whereas its 8 age groups spawned in the 1980s (from 4+ to 11+, with the modal age 5-8 years). The size decreasing could be partially explained by its higher abundance in recent years and relatively low summer discharge of the Anadyr in 2005-2010. Linear growth of spawning cisco has high rate in the first 5 years, reduces in the 6 th year, and decreases abruptly in the 7 th year; the growth rate of the lake-river cisco is generally lower than that of the estuarine cisco. Annual linear increments of immature cisco increase significantly in the next year after large runs of chum salmon, but not in a year of large run. The lake-river cisco is an important object of local fishery, with the main fishing grounds at Markovo where it is caught in autumn during its mass spawning migration. Annual landings of cisco are very variable, with significant decreasing in the 2000s. Modern state of the lake-river cisco population is determined mainly by hydrological regime of the river and strength of the chum salmon runs.

Impacts of Projected Climate Changes on Streamflow and Sediment Transport for Three Snowmelt‐Dominated Rivers in the Interior Pacific Northwest

AbstractAnthropogenic climate change is likely to have significant impacts on river systems, particularly on rivers dominated by seasonal snowmelt. In addition to altering the timing and magnitude of streamflow, climate change can affect the energy available to transport sediment, as well as the availability of sediment to be transported. These hydrologic changes are sensitive to local climate, which is largely controlled by topography, but climate models cannot resolve processes at these scales. Here, I investigate impacts of climate change on streamflow and suspended‐sediment transport for three snowmelt‐dominated rivers in the interior Pacific Northwest – the Tucannon River in Washington and the South Fork Coeur d'Alene and Red rivers in Idaho – using downscaled climate simulations from regional climate models (a range of three models plus an ensemble average) to drive a basin‐scale hydrologic model. The results indicate that climate change is likely to amplify the annual cycle of river discharge, producing higher winter discharge (increases in ensemble mean January discharge ranging from 4.1% to 34.4% for the three rivers), an earlier spring snowmelt peak (by approximately one month), and lower summer discharge (decreases in ensemble mean July discharge ranging from 5.2% to 47.2%), relative to a late 20th‐century baseline. The magnitude of the largest simulated flood under the ensemble‐average climate change scenario increases by 0.6–41.6% across the three rivers. Simulated changes in suspended‐sediment transport generally follow the changes in streamflow. These changes in discharge and sediment transport will likely produce significant impacts on the study rivers, including changes in flooding, physical habitat, and river morphology. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.

Effect of subsurface drainage on streamflow in an agricultural headwater watershed

Artificial drainage, also known as subsurface or tile drainage is paramount to sustaining crop production agriculture in the poorly-drained, humid regions of the world. Hydrologic assessments of individual plots and fields with tile drainage are becoming common; however, a major void exists in our understanding of the contribution of systematic tile drainage to watershed hydrology. A headwater watershed (4 km2) in central Ohio, USA and all functioning tile were monitored from 2005 to 2010 in order to characterize the magnitude and frequency of flows, quantify the role and seasonal contributions of tile drainage to watershed hydrology, and relate tile drainage to precipitation and antecedent conditions. Results indicated that tile drainage contributions to watershed hydrology were significant. Specifically, 21% of precipitation (206 mm) was recovered through tile drainage annually. Tile drainage also accounted for 47% of watershed discharge and was seasonally variable. Median monthly tile discharges in winter (23.4 mm), spring (10.2 mm), and fall (15.6 mm) were significantly greater (P < 0.05) than the median monthly summer discharge (0.9 mm). Results from this study will help enhance hydrology and water quality prediction technologies as well as the design and implementation of best management practices that address water quality concerns.

Heat flux calculations for Mackenzie and Yukon Rivers

This study analyzes long-term (40–60 years) discharge and water temperature records collected near the basin outlets of the Yukon and Mackenzie Rivers. It defines seasonal cycles of discharge, water temperature (WT), and heat flux (HF) for the basins, and compares their main features to understand their similarity and difference. Both rivers have similar hydrographs, i.e. low flows in winter and high discharge in summer, with the peak flood in June due to snowmelt runoff. Mackenzie River has many large lakes and they sustain the higher base flows over the fall/winter season. Mackenzie basin is large with high precipitation, thus producing 50% more discharge than the Yukon River to the Arctic Ocean. The WT regimes are also similar between the two rivers. Yukon River WT is about 2–3 °C warmer than the Mackenzie over the open water months. Both rivers have the highest WT in the mid summer and they transport large amount of heat to the polar ocean system. Yukon River monthly HF is lower by 10–60% than the Mackenzie mainly due to smaller discharge. Mackenzie River heat transport peaks in July, while the Yukon HF reaches the maximum in June and July. These results provide critical knowledge of river thermal condition and energy transport to the northern seas. They are useful for large-scale climate and ocean model development and validation, and climate/hydrology change research in the northern regions.

What Drives Warming Trends in Streams? A Case Study from the Alpine Foothills

AbstractWe investigated the effects of climate warming and land‐use changes on the temperature and discharge of seven Swiss and Italian streams in the catchment of Lake Lugano. In addition, we attempted to predict future stream conditions based on regional climate scenarios. Between 1976 and 2012, the study streams warmed by 1.5–4.3 °C, whereas discharge showed no long‐term trends. Warming trends were driven mainly by catchment urbanization and two large‐scale climatic oscillations, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. In comparison, independent influences by radiative forcing due to increased atmospheric CO2 were uncertain. However, radiative forcing was predicted to further increase stream temperature (to +3–7 °C), reduce summer discharge (to −46%) and increase winter discharge (to +96%) between the present and 2070–2099. These results provide new insights into the drivers of long‐term temperature and discharge trends in European streams subject to multiple impacts. The picture emerging is one of transition, where greenhouse‐gas forcing is gaining ground over climate oscillations and urbanization, the drivers of past trends. This shift would impress a more directional nature upon future changes in stream temperature and discharge, and extend anthropogenic warming to rural streams. Diffusing future impacts on stream ecosystems would require adaptation measures at local to national scales and mitigation of greenhouse‐gas emissions at the global scale. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.

Century‐long records reveal slight, ecoregion‐localized changes in Athabasca River flows

AbstractReports of abruptly declining flows of Canada's Athabasca River have prompted concern because this large, free‐flowing river could be representative for northern North America, provides water for the massive Athabasca oil‐sands projects and flows to the extensive and biodiverse Peace–Athabasca, Slave and Mackenzie River deltas. To investigate historic hydrology along the river and its major tributaries, we expanded the time series with interpolations for short data gaps; calculations of annual discharges from early, summer‐only records; and by splicing records across sequential hydrometric gauges. These produced composite, century‐long records (1913–2011) and trend detection with linear Pearson correlation provided similar outcomes to nonparametric Kendall τ‐b tests. These revealed that the mountain and foothills reaches displayed slight increases in winter discharges versus larger declines in summer discharges and consequently declining annual flows (~0.16% per year at Hinton; p &lt; 0.01). Conversely, with contrasting boreal contributions, the Athabasca River at Athabasca displayed no overall trend in monthly or annual flows, but there was correspondence with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation that contributed to a temporary flow decline from 1970 to 2000. These findings from century‐long records contrast with interpretations from numerous shorter‐term studies and emphasize the need for sufficient time series for hydrologic trend analyses. For Northern Hemisphere rivers, the study interval should be at least 80 years to span two Pacific Decadal Oscillation cycles and dampen the influence from phase transitions. Most prior trend analyses considered only a few decades, and this weakens interpretations of the hydrologic consequences of climate change. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.