Suitable Territories Research Articles

MODELING THE SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE EUROPEAN LAND SNAIL COCHLODINA LAMINATA (GASTROPODA, PULMONATA, CLAUSILIIDAE) IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE RANGE

Species distribution modeling (SDM) allows to defi ne the potential range and identify key factors that determine the habitat suitable areas. In this study, we made forecasts for the distribution of the European clausilid Cochlodina laminata (Montagu, 1803) in the eastern part of the range using SDM methods. Various algorithms are used to create models, including machine learning algorithms. We selected climatic factors and Earth remote sensing (ERS) data as predictors (extended vegetation index and land use). An ensemble forecast based on all models showed that the range of C. laminata is a wedge-shaped and largely coincides with the scheme proposed earlier by I.M. Likharev. However, in the eastern and southeastern parts the potential range turned out to be wider. The boundaries of the C. laminata potential distribution have been established in the forest-steppe and steppe zones, as well as in the Black Sea region and the Caucasus. The use of remote sensing data made it possible to identify suitable territories in more detail, which is especially important in the peripheral zones of the range. It is shown that the most signifi cant factors in the distribution of the species in the studied area are the average annual temperature, temperature seasonality and precipitation of the warmest quarter.

Моделирование динамики ареала озёрной лягушки (Pelophylax ridibundus) (Ranidae, Amphibia) на территории России при альтернативных сценариях глобального изменения климата

Predictive maps of the distribution of the marsh frog (Pelophylax ridibundus) in Russia under the conditions of global climate change up to 2100 are presented. It is shown that under the influence of global climate change, the range will expand and the centroid will shift to the north-east. The patterns of the formation of the invasive part of the species range are summarized and maps are created for different models and scenarios of climate change, which include suitable territories for the further dispersal of the species in the European part of Russia, the Urals, Siberia and the Far East. It is shown that with warming in the case of low-sensitivity models, the area of territories suitable for the species will increase by 193(±76)%, and the shift of the center of the range in latitude will be 427(±82) km.

Алгоритми стабілізації швидкості обертів ротора Дар’є вітро-енергетичної установки, керованого змінами довжини лопатей

The world’s power engineering features ever increasing attention to the development of renewable power sources. Difficulties in provision with traditional energy sources (gas, coal, and oil products) and the global trends of transition to green sources call for replacing the traditional sources with new ones. Among the alternative energy sources, wind power plants (WPPs) installed in suitable territories have received widespread use. Modern WPPs are of two types: vertical- and horizontal-axis ones. Vertical-axis WPPs, as distinct from horizontal-axis ones, have a number of specific advantages, such as, for example, insensitivity to wind direction changes, which significantly simplify the WPP design and increase the WPP reliability. Both WPP types are dynamically complex systems, which operate in different regimes depending on their dynamic and technological features. The task of matching these features is assigned to control systems, which control the rotor operation using additional devices, for example, generators of different types. For horizontal-axis WPPs, approaches to the solution of a number of system control problems have been developed on the basis of the principle of swept area variation. The development of a similar approach for vertical-axis WPPs seems to be an important and promising task. The goal of this paper is to develop efficient algorithms of WPP rotor speed stabilization using the principle of swept area variation, namely, telescopic blades. The problem is solved using methods of the classical automatic control theory and mathematical simulation. The novelty lies in extending the concept of control by swept area variation to Darrieus vertical-axis WPPs, synthesizing efficient algorithms for stabilizing the rotor speed of Darrieus vertical-axis WPPs controlled by blade length variation, and determining conditions for their stability. The algorithms may be used in substantiating design solutions for Darrieus rotor vertical-axis WPPs.

Projected decline in European bumblebee populations in the twenty-first century.

Habitat degradation and climate change are globally acting as pivotal drivers of wildlife collapse, with mounting evidence that this erosion of biodiversity will accelerate in the following decades1-3. Here, we quantify the past, present and future ecological suitability of Europe for bumblebees, a threatened group of pollinators ranked among the highest contributors to crop production value in the northern hemisphere4-8. We demonstrate coherent declines of bumblebee populations since 1900 over most of Europe and identify future large-scale range contractions and species extirpations under all future climate and landuse changescenarios. Around 38-76% of studied European bumblebee species currently classified as 'Least Concern' are projected to undergo losses of at least 30% of ecologically suitable territory by 2061-2080 compared to 2000-2014. All scenarios highlight that parts of Scandinavia will become potential refugia for European bumblebees; it is howeveruncertain whether these areas will remain clear of additional anthropogenic stressors not accounted for in present models. Our results underline the critical role of globalchange mitigation policies as effective levers to protect bumblebees from manmade transformation of the biosphere.

ВОЗМОЖНОЕ РАСШИРЕНИЕ НА ЮГЕ РОССИИ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКОГО АРЕАЛА СРЕДИЗЕМНОМОРСКОЙ ПЛОДОВОЙ МУХИ - ОПАСНОГО ВРЕДИТЕЛЯ ПЛОДОВЫХ КУЛЬТУР

The Mediterranean fruit fly is a significant agroclimatic threat to the fruit production. It can damage up to 80-100% of fruits on 45-78% of agricultural land in some countries. The modern climatic range of the pest is analyzed in the present paper using computational data generated by the Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory regional climate model and the global climate model of Marchuk Institute of Numerical Mathematics. The species requirements for climate conditions are: the sum of active temperatures (a threshold is 10°C) above 2700°C; monthly mean temperatures for December-February are positive; monthly precipitation totals in December-February exceed 13 mm. In Russia, such conditions are observed on the Black Sea coast and in a small part of the southern Caspian lowland. The assessment of changes in the climatic range of the pest in 2050-2059 versus 1990-1999 under the RCP8.5 scenario showed the expansion of the climatically suitable territory. The territory will almost completely include such traditional fruit growing regions as the Krasnodar krai, the Republic of Crimea, and the Republic of Adygea. Strict quarantine measures and early resource allocation that quickly suppresses infestations of the Mediterranean fruit fly may be proposed as adaptation measures.

Farming Beginning in Southwestern Transylvania (Romania). Subsistence Strategies in Mureş Valley during the Early Neolithic

Early Neolithic communities penetrated in southwestern Transylvania and were established in the Mureș Valley where they found suitable territories for domestic animal herds and probably plant cultivation. The present study tries to answer questions related to the beginnings of the neolithisation in this area, from an interdisciplinary perspective, valuing archeozoologically and archeobotanically the Starčevo-Criș site of Soimuș-Teleghi (Hunedoara County), dating to the 7th–6th millennium BC. Animal skeletal remains and phytoliths are the proxies analysed in this paper, offering data about the palaeoeconomy and palaeoenvironment of the Early Neolithic settlement. In the archaeozoological samples, the remains coming from domestic mammals are the most frequent, being identified as cattle (Bos taurus), sheep/goat (Ovis aries/Capra hircus), pig (Sus domesticus), and dog (Canis familiaris). The fact that pig remains are almost absent in the samples is significant, suggesting a mobility of the evaluated communities. The skeletal remains of wild mammal species are rare, belonging to red deer (Cervus elaphus), roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), aurochs (Bos primigenius), wild boar (Sus scrofa), and polecat (Mustela putorius). The strong dominance of grasses is attested through the phytoliths’ assemblages. ELONGATE DENDRITIC phytoliths are well represented. This morphotype, which originates from the inflorescence or the husk of Poaceae, is most likely derived from cultivated plants (cereals such as wheat, barley, etc.). Archaeozoological and archaeobotanical data resulting from this study suggest an open environment around the Early Neolithic settlement, where communities of the Starčevo-Criș culture mainly raised herds of cattle and sheep/goat. Sporadically, hunting and gathering molluscs were practised by the inhabitants, as indicated by archaeozoological results.

Too cool to fight: Is ambient temperature associated with male aggressive behavior in the mesquite lizard?

AbstractAggressive behavior is performed in the context of intraspecific competition for gaining access to mates, food, or suitable territories. However, aggressive confrontations may divert time and energy from other important activities and increase the likelihood of suffering physical injury or predation. Aggressive behavior is particularly costly for ectotherms because it may reduce the time available for thermoregulation, which is a time‐consuming activity but indispensable for adequate maintenance of metabolic processes. In this study, we analyzed the long‐term effect of the thermal quality (i.e. the degree of discrepancy between the temperatures available in a given environment and temperatures that animals prefer) on the aggressive behavior of the mesquite lizard Sceloporus grammicus. Our hypothesis was that time allocated to aggressive behavior in low thermal quality environments is diverted from time spent on the acquisition and maintenance of an adequate body temperature. Accordingly, we found that lizards from the low thermal quality location (i.e. low environmental temperature) exhibited less aggressive behavior than those captured in middle and high thermal quality locations. Our results show that in the low thermal quality location aggressive behavior was almost absent, suggesting that this behavior may interfere with the acquisition and maintenance of an adequate body temperature. Therefore, it is likely that the benefits of thermoregulation outweigh those of aggressive behavior at low thermal quality locations.

Decreasing potential suitable habitat of bumble bees in the Great Himalayan National Park Conservation area

ABSTRACT Bumble bees, along other managed honeybee species, provide vital pollination services to a wide range of agricultural and wild plants over the Himalayan range. As a result, it is regarded as one of the most important pollinator species in the Himalayan area. For the first time in our knowledge, we report an assessment of existing and projected habitat suitability distribution of bumble bees in the Great Himalayan National Park Conservation area. Between May 2018 and October 2019, nine species were reported in the region. A maximum entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution model was used to make future forecasts for the year 2050 utilising bioclimatic and biophysical data. The Jackknife test was performed to assess the variables’ contribution to predictive modelling. In the year 2050, Bombus tunicatus, Bombus haemorrhoidalis, Bombus festivus and Bombus asiaticus will be in more danger, representing the least suitable territory, according to a comparison of the nine species of bumble bees. This loss in species distribution area may result in the extinction of vital wildflower pollinators in the near future.

Contrasting patterns of natal dispersal of a south temperate House Wren population at local and regional scales

Dispersal constitutes one of the main processes that shape population genetic structure and dynamics. Combining a capture-mark-resighting methodology and molecular genetics analyses, we studied the natal dispersal behaviour of House Wrens (Troglodytes aedon bonariae) inhabiting a naturally fragmented habitat in south temperate Argentina. Based on data collected over 12 breeding seasons (2005–2016), we tested if males and females differ in natal dispersal behaviour at different spatial scales. At local scale (within study sites), both resighting of banded individuals and genetic analysis showed that females dispersed greater distances than males. At a broader spatial scale (between study sites) resighting of banded individuals could not verify that females were the dispersing sex since long-distance dispersal was rare. However, genetic analyses revealed paradoxical evidence: while the females of populations separated by more than 5 km showed slight but significant genotypic differences among them, males showed genetic differences at a greater distance (> 16 km). Given that genetic analyses can provide evidence of both historical and present-day dispersal the observed genetic differentiation does not necessarily imply that the sex dispersal pattern is reversed at a regional scale. We propose that females have a higher probability of acquiring a partner/territory at closer distances due existing male-biased population sex ratio caused but higher female mortality. Also, although males are less likely to disperse, when they do, they must travel greater distances to find a suitable territory or mate. Such movements would prevent the occurrence of genetic differences among male populations.

Implementing new digital options in education/ occupational/ play/ art therapy as tools for self-knowledge, self-managements, self-esteem

IntroductionThe purpose of art in art-therfic version of the “Regu the already acquired knowledge upon the artistic material, but a discovery of the yet unknown. “Multimedia technology, which has evolved into meaningful visual representations, incorporates the science behind human perception and knowledge…Contemporary visual arts bring together, in different degrees of relationship and fusion, fields of art that until now were understood and practiced more individually. The most suitable territory for this partnership is that of the physical and metaphysical environment, provided by the installationist and shareholder arts.” [1].ObjectivesArt-based therapies, as nondirective methods, attempt to visualize past traumatic experiences and harmonize the individual with himself and with others.MethodsIn the preventive activities we include all activities involving nonverbal communication and holistic engagement. ”Beneficiaries can create their own images with which they want to interact, to arrange their environment…We experiment with art-specific ways to make interdisciplinary exchanges and cultural interferences using the universal language of visual arts along with intercultural elements and religious ecumenism … Sometimes, common themes with schools and higher education are addressed as an extra-curricular complement. Benefits are multiple, diverse and complex, appear on the paths that offer inter/pluri/transcultural learning opportunities and exchange of knowledge, making space and time connections between different cultures. [2]ResultsThe creative process and the interaction increases self esteem, courage, taking of risks, the learning of new skills.ConclusionsNew ideas, conceptions and ways of expression emerge, enriching the patient’s life according with the therapeutic purposes. [3].DisclosureREFERENCES [1]. Drăgan-Chirilă, Diana.(24-26.05 2018), Associate Professor Ph.D., University of Art and Design, Cluj-Napoca, Romania, visual artist, Coordinator of the multimedia installation “Diagnostique” new media and

Art therapy with children surviving cancer used to relieve symptoms associated with death, loss and pain

IntroductionSince dying is inevitable, it is part of life, children need to be able to deal with the feelings and emotions associated withs death, loss and pain. When the grieven child move among the art modalities, he or she is able to deepen understaning of his or her lived experiences.ObjectivesOur aim is to uncover these new perspectives and sources of inspiration in order to advance in defining the importance of resilience in personal development.MethodsWe made use of the following techniques: ceramic, drawing, modeling, painting, assemblage of unconventional materials, multimedia techniques, animation. Performing artworks, artefacts, or using craft arts are test activities for art therapy and occupational therapy. „…Contemporary visual arts bring together, in different degrees of relationship and fusion, fields of art that until now were understood and practiced more individually. The most suitable territory for this partnership is that of the physical and metaphysical environment, provided by the installationist and shareholder arts.” [2] A medical project was transformed into an artistic project [4]ResultsGiven the diversity of non-verbal communication of the child, art therapy is not a simple accessory method in the therapeutic process of emotional disorders caused by grief of children, but a mandatory condition of it.ConclusionsGiven the diversity of non-verbal communication of the child, art therapy is not a simple accessory method in the therapeutic process of emotional disorders caused by grief of children, but a mandatory condition of it.DisclosureREFERENCES [1] Drăgan-Chirilă, Diana.(24-26.05 2018), Associate Professor Ph.D., University of Art and Design Cluj-Napoca, Romania, visual artist, Coordinator of the multimedia installation “Diagnostique” new media and multimedia performance instal

Implementing new digital options in education/ occupational/ play/ art therapy as tools for self-knowledge, self-managements, self-esteem

IntroductionThe purpose of art in art-therapy, in this context, is not an exercise of the already acquired knowledge upon the artistic material, but a discovery of the yet unknown. “Multimedia technology, which has evolved into meaningful visual representations, incorporates the science behind human perception and knowledge…Contemporary visual arts bring together, in different degrees of relationship and fusion, fields of art that until now were understood and practiced more individually. The most suitable territory for this partnership is that of the physical and metaphysical environment, provided by the installationist and shareholder arts.” [1].ObjectivesArt-based therapies, as nondirective methods, attempt to visualize past traumatic experiences and harmonize the individual with himself and with others.MethodsIn the preventive activities we include all activities involving nonverbal communication and holistic engagement. ”Beneficiaries can create their own images with which they want to interact, to arrange their environment…We experiment with art-specific ways to make interdisciplinary exchanges and cultural interferences using the universal language of visual arts along with intercultural elements and religious ecumenism … Sometimes, common themes with schools and higher education are addressed as an extra-curricular complement. Benefits are multiple, diverse and complex, appear on the paths that offer inter/pluri/transcultural learning opportunities and exchange of knowledge, making space and time connections between different cultures. [2]ResultsThe creative process and the interaction increases self esteem, courage, taking of risks, the learning of new skills.ConclusionsNew ideas, conceptions and ways of expression emerge, enriching the patient’s life according with the therapeutic purposes. [3].DisclosureREFERENCES [1] Chirila, Emilia (2011), PhD Thesis, Educaţie artistică şi art-terapie cu mijloace specifice ceramicii [Artistic Education and Art-therapy within the Specific Means of Ceramics], University of Art and Design, Cluj-Napoca, Romania, p. 390

Color-coded summation images in the evaluation of renal artery stenosis before and after percutaneous transluminal angioplasty

BackgroundEndovascular therapy is the gold standard in patients with hemodynamic relevant renal artery stenosis (RAS) resistant to medical therapy. The severity grading of the stenosis as well as the result assessment after endovascular approach is predominantly based on visible estimations of the anatomic appearance. We aim to investigate the application of color-coded DSA parameters to gain hemodynamic information during endovascular renal artery interventions and for the assessment of the procedures´ technical success.MethodsWe retrospectively evaluated 32 patients who underwent endovascular renal artery revascularization and applied color-coded summation imaging on selected monochromatic DSA images. The differences in time to peak (dTTP) of contrast enhancement in predefined anatomical measuring points were analyzed. Furthermore, differences in systolic blood pressure values (SBP) and serum creatinine were obtained. The value of underlying diabetes mellitus as a predictor for clinical outcome was assessed. Correlation analysis between the patients´ gender as well as the presence of diabetes mellitus and dTTP was performed.ResultsEndovascular revascularization resulted in statistically significant improvement in 4/7 regions of interest. Highly significant improvement of perfusion in terms of shortened TTP values could be found at the segmental artery level and in the intrastenotical segment (p < 0.001), significant improvement prestenotical and in the apical renal parenchyma (p < 0.05). In the other anatomic regions, differences revealed not to be significant. Differences between SBP and serum creatinine levels before and after the procedure were significant (p = 0.004 and 0.0004). Patients´ gender as well as the presence of diabetes mellitus did not reveal to be predictors for the clinical success of the procedure. Furthermore, diabetes and gender did not show relevant correlation with dTTP in the parenchymal measuring points.ConclusionsThe supplementary use of color-coding DSA and the data gained from parametric images may provide helpful information in the evaluation of the procedures´ technical success. The segmental artery might be a particularly suitable vascular territory for analyzing differences in blood flow characteristics. Further studies with larger cohorts are needed to further confirm the diagnostic value of this technique.

EVALUACIÓN DE LA APTITUD DE TIERRAS PARA EL DESARROLLO DE LA PORCICULTURA A ESCALA REGIONAL EN YUCATÁN, MÉXICO

&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Background. &lt;/strong&gt;Pig farms are an important economic activity in the state of Yucatán, but they cause great environmental damage, such as groundwater contamination, air pollution, and soil degradation, which together affect both health and economy of local populations. &lt;strong&gt;Objective:&lt;/strong&gt; The aim of this work was to spatially identify the surface suitable for the establishment of pig farms in the state of Yucatán where damage to the environment and human health are not a serious problem. &lt;strong&gt;Methodology:&lt;/strong&gt; For the elaboration of the cartographic model, four maps were used as inputs that represent the evaluation variables, they are: altitude, karst depressions, soils and duration of the rainy season. They were converted to raster formats and handled in a geographic information system. Five classes of territorial aptitude for the establishment of pig farms were defined, 1 = very low; 2 = low; 3 = mean; 4 = discharge; and 5 = very high. The index and superposition method were used to integrate the four variables in a territorial aptitude model. To assign weights to each variable, a multi-criteria decision technique called "analytical hierarchies’ method" was used. &lt;strong&gt;Results:&lt;/strong&gt; The surface area of the territory of the state of Yucatán according to the suitability classes for the establishment of pig farms was: a very low with 21%; low with 50%; medium with 15%; high with 6%; and the very high zone with 8%. The areas of high and very high suitability for the establishment of pig farms are located in the south of the state. &lt;strong&gt;Implications:&lt;/strong&gt; the map of the suitability for the establishment of pig farms on a regional scale will be an important input for updating the "program of ecological land management" of the state of Yucatan. However, due to the particularities of the karst, it is very necessary to carry the analysis to scales greater than 1:50 000 for the development of specific pig projects. &lt;strong&gt;Conclusions:&lt;/strong&gt; The land evaluation model for the establishment of pig farms in the state of Yucatán on a regional scale, allows spatially identifying suitable and highly suitable areas for such activity. The most suitable territories are located in the south of the state, so it would be recommended that the growth of pig farming be those territories after consulting with the native populations.&lt;/p&gt;

Global ecological niche modelling of current and future distribution of peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRv) with an ensemble modelling algorithm.

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious transboundary viral disease of sheep and goats that negatively impacted the farmers and pastoralists' livelihood in Africa and Asia. To overcome the disease's consequences, the OIE and FAO are collaborating efforts to eradicate the disease once and for all. We developed a predictive model that delineates suitable territories for the virus globally in support of this eradication programme. To achieve this, we used an ecological niche modelling with an ensemble algorithm. AUC-ROC curve, true skill statistics (TSS) and Kappa values were used to evaluate the model's performance. A TSS value greater than 0.7 was used to pool outputs of the nine model. The ensemble model has better performance than individual models by every evaluation metrics (Kappa=0.82, TSS=0.88 and ROC=0.99). Annual minimum temperature (24.92%), annual maximum temperature (21.37%), goat density (18.03%) and solar radiation (14.04%) have the highest overall contribution in the ensemble model. The model indicates that India, Mongolia, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Nepal, Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, Sudan, Angola, Nigeria, DRC, Ghana, Sierra Leon, Southern Spain, France, Albania, Montenegro, Macedonia, Italy, Armenia and Azerbaijan are highly suitable for PPRv. In 2040, suitable territories for PPRv will diminish, indicating the odds are with us in eradicating disease by 2030. We believe that this model can be used as an epidemiological tool to facilitate the global eradication programme of the disease set by the OIE and FAO.

Not exodus, but population increase and gene flow restoration in Cantabrian brown bear (Ursus arctos) subpopulations. Comment on Gregório et al. 2020.

In a genetic study on brown bears (Ursus arctos) in the Cantabrian Mountains, Gregório et al. (2020) interpreted the asymmetrical gene flow they found from the eastern subpopulation towards the western one as an exodus of bears forced to flee from the eastern nucleus “with higher human disturbance and poaching”, concluding that connectivity may be operating as a means for eastern Cantabrian bears to find more suitable territories. In this reply, we maintain that the explanations of Gregorio et al. contradict the source-sink theory and we also present demographic data not considered by these authors showing that the eastern subpopulation is not declining, but persistently increasing. After reviewing the demographic and genetic studies published during the last 20 years, we conclude that the connectivity between the two subpopulations is operating as a route which allows the regular movement of males and the restoration of the gene flow across the whole Cantabrian population.

Assessing influence in biofuel production and ecosystem services when environmental changes affect plant–pest relationships

AbstractClimate change is currently affecting both biodiversity and human activities; land use change and greenhouse gas emissions are the main drivers. Many agricultural services are affected by the change, which in turn reflects on the basic provisioning services, which supply food, fibre and biofuels. Biofuels are getting increasing interest because of their sustainability potential. Jatropha curcas gained popularity as a biodiesel crop, due to its ease of cultivation even in harsh environmental conditions. Notwithstanding its high economic importance, few studies are available about its co‐occurrence with pests of the genus Aphthona in sub‐Saharan Africa, where these insects feed on J. curcas, leading to relevant economic losses. Using ecological niche modelling and GIS post‐modelling analyses, we infer the current and future suitable territories for both these taxa, delineating areas where J. curcas cultivations may occur without suffering the presence of Aphthona, in the context of future climate and land use changing. We introduce an area‐normalized index, the ‘Potential‐Actual Cultivation Index’, to better depict the ratio between the suitable areas shared both by the crop and its pest, and the number of actual cultivations, in a target country. Moreover, we find high economic losses (~−50%) both in terms of carbon sequestration and in biodiesel production when J. curcas co‐occur with the Aphthona cookei species group.

Xylella fastidiosa invasion of new countries in Europe, the Middle East and North Africa: Ranking the potential exposure scenarios

After the recent high-impact European outbreaks of Xylella fastidiosa (Xf), a xylem-limited plant pathogenic bacterium native to the Americas, this research aims to rank the risks of potential entry, establishment and spread of Xf in new countries across Europe, the Middle East and North Africa. A novel risk-ranking technique is developed, based on combining entry risk drivers (imported plants, direct flights and ferry connections) with risk factors related to establishment and spread (presence of potential insect vectors, vulnerable economic crops, alternative hosts and climate suitability) of this pathogen. This reveals that western European countries have the highest risk for entry, but that the Mediterranean basin runs the highest risk for establishment and spread of Xf. Lebanon in particular has the highest level of risk for Xf dispersal within its suitable territory. Countries without current outbreaks combining high risks of Xf arrival and establishment are mainly in the Mediterranean basin: Turkey is at the highest level of risk, followed by Greece, Morocco and Tunisia, which are ranked at the high level. The ranking model also confirms the vulnerability, in terms of invasion by Xf, of southern European countries (Italy, Portugal and Spain) in which the pathogen has already been reported. High summer temperatures in these southern countries are likely to be the significant determinant for the overall invasion process, while northern European countries have a high level risk for the arrival of the pathogen, but relatively low summer temperatures may limit establishment and spread of major outbreaks. In general, our study provides a useful approach for mapping and comparing risks of invasive non-native species and emerging pathogens between countries, which could be useful for regional horizon scanning and phytosanitary and biosecurity management.

Impact of Xylella fastidiosa subspecies pauca in European olives

Xylella fastidiosa is the causal agent of plant diseases that cause massive economic damage. In 2013, a strain of the bacterium was, for the first time, detected in the European territory (Italy), causing the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome. We simulate future spread of the disease based on climatic-suitability modeling and radial expansion of the invaded territory. An economic model is developed to compute impact based on discounted foregone profits and losses in investment. The model projects impact for Italy, Greece, and Spain, as these countries account for around 95% of the European olive oil production. Climatic suitability modeling indicates that, depending on the suitability threshold, 95.5 to 98.9%, 99.2 to 99.8%, and 84.6 to 99.1% of the national areas of production fall into suitable territory in Italy, Greece, and Spain, respectively. For Italy, across the considered rates of radial range expansion the potential economic impact over 50 y ranges from 1.9 billion to 5.2 billion Euros for the economic worst-case scenario, in which production ceases after orchards die off. If replanting with resistant varieties is feasible, the impact ranges from 0.6 billion to 1.6 billion Euros. Depending on whether replanting is feasible, between 0.5 billion and 1.3 billion Euros can be saved over the course of 50 y if disease spread is reduced from 5.18 to 1.1 km per year. The analysis stresses the necessity to strengthen the ongoing research on cultivar resistance traits and application of phytosanitary measures, including vector control and inoculum suppression, by removing host plants.

РОЗВИТОК ЕКСТРЕМАЛЬНОГО ТУРИЗМУ В МЕЖАХ ПОДІЛЬСЬКИХ ТОВТР

The problems and the ways of extreme tourism development in the flat conditions of the territory of Ukraine are substantiated and considered in the article. Podillia is taken as the model region, and within its boundaries, the unique natural object is Podillian Tovtry. It is noted that in the modern tourist and recreational sphere of Ukraine, especially in some of its regions, extreme tourism is spontaneously but actively developing. This also applies to the flat (95% of the territory) part of Ukraine, where extreme tourism is not traditional. At the end of the XX and beginning of the XXI century, extreme tourism was started by people of different age categories, so the justification of opportunities and prospects for the development of different types of extreme tourism in individual regions and their natural sites is relevant. The development of certain types of extreme tourism in accordance with suitable natural, natural, anthropogenic, and anthropogenic landscape complexes is substantiated for Podillian Tovtry. The Podillian Tovtry is a natural object of world importance, with no analogues in Europe, but with external geological features, they are somewhat similar to rocky ridges in the United Kingdom and the United States. Podillian Tovtry is an example of forming a unique natural structure; the necessary conditions are formed not only for the development of unique Tovtry landscape complexes but also the possibility of development of various types of extreme tourism on their basis. The nature and landscapes’ of the Podillian Tovtry analysis shows that there are necessary and sufficient natural conditions and resources for the active development of extreme tourism. The uniqueness of nature and landscapes, the presence of the necessary characteristics of natural components are included in the natural properties for the development of extreme types of tourism. The main ridge, lateral towers, and especially the sections of the Podillian Tovtry where their rivers are cut, are the suitable territories for the active development of such kinds of extreme tourism as rock climbing, especially for children and youth mountaineering, delta paragliding, ballooning, (these types of tourism are being developed in Smotrych Canyon, which is a picturesque work of nature, where the Silurian history is reflected on its vertical walls), for the elderly – hiking, biking, and equestrian tourism; the presence of karst formations – speleotourism, rivers with rapids – rafting, kayaking and more. To the anthropogenic – the presence of mining, industrial, water, and beliberative landscape complexes suggested ways of their modern and future development with the purpose of organized development of various types of extreme tourism. Within these anthropogenic landscapes, it is possible and appropriate to develop the same extreme types of tourism as in natural (rock climbing, paragliding – mining; diving – water-anthropogenic, equestrian, bicycle, mototourism – road, beligerotourism). It is noted that further exploration of natural conditions and resources not only of Podillian Tovtry, but also of Kremenetski Mountains, Podillian Prydnisteria, and Middle Pobuzhia will give an opportunity to significantly build a tourist and recreational sphere within the boundaries of Podillia, taking into account extreme tourism. So far, the development of extreme tourism within Podillia is going on spontaneously and needs a more detailed justification of the real directions of its formation.