Моделирование динамики ареала озёрной лягушки (Pelophylax ridibundus) (Ranidae, Amphibia) на территории России при альтернативных сценариях глобального изменения климата

Abstract

Predictive maps of the distribution of the marsh frog (Pelophylax ridibundus) in Russia under the conditions of global climate change up to 2100 are presented. It is shown that under the influence of global climate change, the range will expand and the centroid will shift to the north-east. The patterns of the formation of the invasive part of the species range are summarized and maps are created for different models and scenarios of climate change, which include suitable territories for the further dispersal of the species in the European part of Russia, the Urals, Siberia and the Far East. It is shown that with warming in the case of low-sensitivity models, the area of territories suitable for the species will increase by 193(±76)%, and the shift of the center of the range in latitude will be 427(±82) km.