Successful Trading Research Articles

Economic Policy Choices and Economic Growth of Nigeria: Lessons from the Asian Pacific

This study examined the effect of economic policy choices on the growth of Nigeria with specific reference to the Asian Pacific from 1994 to 2022 (i.e. 29 years). Specifically, the study covered three (3) variables. The three economic policy variables are broad money supply, total trade and government revenue. The three economic policy variables accounted for monetary, trade and fiscal policy measures. Meanwhile, the economic growth proxy is considered to be real gross domestic product (RGDP). Data were retrieved from the Central Bank of Nigeria Statistical Bulletin, 2022. The robust regression analysis was suitable for the study. The study confirmed that the broad money supply negatively affects economic growth. However, total trade and government revenue positively affected economic growth. Overall, the study concludes that economic policy choices have a mixed effect on the growth of the Nigerian economy. As such, the Nigerian government should use its monetary policy tools to curb excess cash from circulation. Further, efforts should be made to reduce some trade barriers that mitigate successful trading in Nigeria. Lastly, the Nigerian government should reappraise the country's current trade policies, as this may be the main reason the Nigerian economy is still underdeveloped.

Development of Dropshipping – an Online Business Model in the Context of E-Commerce

The development of mobile technologies and the Internet since the end of the last century has conditioned a new environment characterized by its own economic processes. Today, people spend much of their daily lives in front of various mobile devices, such as smartphones, tablets, laptops, etc., which connect them to the World Wide Web. There has been an accelerated development of e-commerce, which is growing in importance as a trade and distribution channel. Different online business models are emerging to conduct successful trade. Through them, manufacturers, retailers, entrepreneurs and distributors are able to engage ever larger customer audiences and increase their buyers. Through the online business model of dropshipping, entrepreneurs on the Internet running online stores develop relationships with manufacturers, wholesalers and distributors as well as customers. The model inherently incorporates both B2B and B2C e-commerce, enabling commercially oriented individuals with little capital to create a platform to sell products around the world without manufacturing or shipping them themselves to end customers. The research interest of this online business model stems from the fact that in terms of revenue, the dropshipping market is only just over 1% of the entire e-commerce market, but has demonstrated enduring sustainability over time. The aim of the paper is to describe the dropshipping model and to make a comprehensive analysis of e-commerce for the last few years. Various statistics about the e-commerce market worldwide are used – volume of B2B and B2C markets, amount of dropshipping revenue, number of online buyers, etc. Through comparative and retrospective analysis, key patterns in e-commerce development are identified.

Market Dynamics of Short Covering: The Price Rebound Phenomenon and Double Peak Model in China’s Futures

The present study examines the behavior of futures markets in the wake of widespread short selling and subsequent short covering, which frequently lead to notable price increases. Known as the "Double Peak Model," this study provides a thorough analysis by synthesizing empirical data and recent literature. Data on futures contracts for different financial indices and commodities during periods of notable short interest and subsequent short covering are gathered for the study. Using statistical and econometric methods, the research examines trends in price movements and volatility. Key findings show that while short covering can result in sudden and sharp price increases, short selling can improve market efficiency and transparency by improving information flow. The study also emphasizes how crucial institutional involvement, legal frameworks, and market dynamics are in determining these price fluctuations. The Double Peak Model provides a deeper understanding of the mechanisms underlying market behaviors related to short selling and covering, which is useful information for traders, investors, and policymakers. These understandings are essential for creating sensible regulatory policies, enhancing risk management, and creating successful trading strategies.

An adaptive financial trading strategy based on proximal policy optimization and financial signal representation

Trading strategies play a crucial role in financial trading. However, due to the significant amount of noise present in financial signals, traditional trading strategies and those based on price prediction often fail to achieve optimal results in real market conditions. Nowadays, with the pervasive noise in financial signals, developing successful trading strategies to achieve high returns has become one of the most prominent and challenging research areas in modern finance. Therefore, an adaptive financial trading strategy, called proximal policy optimization based on financial signal representation trading strategy (FSRPPO), is proposed. This strategy employs financial signal representation technology (FSR), which combines complete ensemble extreme-point symmetric mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) and modified rescaled range analysis (MRS), to accurately and robustly represent dynamic market states, enhancing profitability. Additionally, the designed reward function reduces trading frequency to lower costs, while the designed action space increases trading flexibility to reduce risks. The experimental results on real stock data demonstrate the outstanding profitability and good risk avoidance ability of our proposed trading strategy, which means that the proposed model can effectively filter out noise from financial signals, extract valuable information, and provide reliable decision support for investors.

Predicting successful trading in the West Texas Intermediate crude oil cash market with machine learning nature-inspired swarm-based approaches

Predicting successful trading in the West Texas Intermediate crude oil cash market with machine learning nature-inspired swarm-based approaches

Impact of night trading sessions on volatility of USD futures market in Thailand

Prior to September 2021, USD Futures could only be traded during the regular hours in Thailand Futures Exchange (TFEX). An additional trading session at night, while trading in both London and New York exchanges is active, enables investors to better handle their foreign exchange exposure or speculative needs of the moment. However, understanding volatility behavior is crucial for achieving successful trading. Therefore, this study investigates the impact of night trading sessions on the USD Futures volatility using GARCH family models. The USD Futures market volatility is examined through comparative analysis before and after the introduction of the night trading session. Both TARCH and EGARCH models have revealed no existence of leverage effect over the sample period - from January 2, 2020 to December 30, 2022. The GARCH model has proved to be the most accurate model for describing USD Futures volatility. Following the launch of nighttime trading, USD Futures market has experienced higher and more persistent volatility. In response to an increase in the volatility of USD Futures, TFEX should increase its margin requirement and monitor the speculative movements in futures market for their possible destabilizing effect. Investors should also adjust their hedge ratio to manage risk more appropriately and incorporate an extended period of increased uncertainty into their trading strategies.

INFORMATION-BASED TRADING

We consider a pair of traders in a market where the information available to the second trader is a strict subset of the information available to the first trader. The traders make prices based on information concerning a security that pays a random cash flow at a fixed time T in the future. Market information is modeled in line with the scheme of Brody, Hughston, and Macrina. The risk-neutral distribution of the cash flow is known to the traders, who make prices with a fixed multiplicative bid-offer spread and report their prices to a game master who declares that a trade has been made when the bid price of one of the traders crosses the offer price of the other. We prove that the value of the first trader’s position is strictly greater than that of the second. The results are analyzed by use of simulation studies and generalized to situations where (a) there is a hierarchy of traders, (b) there are multiple successive trades, and (c) there is inventory aversion. In these settings, we show that information is superior to strategy.

Effect of Single Custom Territory on Trade Facilitation between Tanzania and Kenya: A Case of Holili Border

This study examined the effect of the Single Custom Territory (SCT) on trade facilitation between Tanzania and Kenya, focusing on the roles of legal frameworks, inter-agency cooperation, and technological integration as independent variables. The study used a quantitative approach through multiple linear regression methods to determine the extent to which SCT’s constituent factors have influenced trade facilitation in the region. Both primary and secondary data were collected and analyzed. The findings suggest that 72.1% of variation in trade facilitation can be explained and attributed by the predictor variables. The legal framework plays a pivotal role in ensuring successful trade facilitation within the SCT context. Harmonization of trade policies and tariffs among the partner states (Tanzania and Kenya) emerged as a critical enabler for seamless cross-border trade. It was further revealed that enhanced inter-agency cooperation and collaborative border management committees contribute significantly to efficient trade processes. The integration of advanced technology, including ICT systems and electronic platforms is a key driver to efficiency in trade facilitation through massive reduction of operational costs and minimization of transit time. The study recommends, Partner states to actively collaborate in harmonizing trade policies, tariffs, and regulations across borders through consistent efforts in enacting and enforcing legislation that promotes transparent and efficient trade processes. Thus reducing ambiguity and fostering a conducive environment for cross-border trade. Partner state governments should facilitate formation of joint border management committees, cross-functional teams, and the implementation of regular training programs to promote collaboration and reduce redundant processes, thereby creating a streamlined trade ecosystem. Member states to embrace and expand technological integration that enable real-time data sharing, efficient information exchange, and provision of online services.

Beyond methodology: unveiling multisited entrepreneurship

PurposeMultisited ethnography has primarily been portrayed as a challenge for the following field-worker, with the researcher taking the central role and neglecting research participants also experiencing a multisited nature of their work. The authors argue that literature on multisited ethnography merely discusses multisitedness as a methodological theme. In correspondence, the authors propose to think of multisitedness not just as a methodological theme but also as an empirical theme.Design/methodology/approach The authors contend etic and emic perspectives to address multisitedness empirically, which enables researchers to compare and contrast the multisited topic of inquiry in academic “outsider” terms with the etic analysis and considering the perspective of the research participants' multisited experiences using the emic perspective. To show the fruitfulness of discussing multisitedness using the complementary etic and emic analysis, the authors present the example of Mennonite entrepreneurial activities in Belize, a heterogeneous group of migrants that established themselves as successful traders and entrepreneurs.Findings Through an etic multisited ethnographic perspective, the authors compare and contrast four communities of Mennonites in terms of their entrepreneurial activities, technology and energy use. Through an emic perspective, the authors demonstrate how Mennonites, while preferring an in-group focus, navigate their multisited entrepreneurial activities, which require interaction with the outside world.Originality/value The authors highlight the value of combining etic–emic reflections to acknowledge and include the multisited nature of many social phenomena as experienced by the research participants.

In search of sustainable successful traders in times of crisis

In recent decades, recurring global crises have stemmed from management shortcomings in various organizations, particularly within the financial sector (e.g., the 2000 stock market crash, 2011 UBS rogue trader scandal). Excessive risk-taking attitudes by traders and investment and risk managers are tied to these crises. Identifying high performance individuals who are also responsible from a societal stance is a challenge. In this paper, we tackle this issue by investigating the personality traits that characterize responsible and successful traders to improve personnel selection procedures with cross-cultural applicability. Our findings reveal that being conscientious and intelligent while at the same time being inclined to take financial risks, are significantly associated with responsible trading performance.

Changes in Britain's Taxation Structure During the Period of Colonial Empire Development

For several centuries until now, scientists have been trying to explain the phenomenon of the British colonial empire: what caused of such a rapid development of an initially peripheral feudal state that settled on a small island in northern Europe? Some historians write about successful trade politic of England and consider the victory over Spain, France and Holland in the war for supremacy of the seas to be the decisive factor. Others researchers speak about uniqueness of England's monetary system, which had two unrelated currencies: the paper pound sterling, pegged to the gold standard, which circulated only in England, and the sovereigns, which were made in the colonies. The author of the article primarily focuses on how the English Parliament managed to optimize the national financial system of England, which in the future will become the foundation for the financial system of the colonial Empire.

МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ ВЛИЯНИЯ ПУБЛИКАЦИИ ОТЧЕТОВ КОМПАНИЙ ТЕХНОЛОГИЧЕСКОГО СЕКТОРА НА КОТИРОВКИ ИХ АКЦИЙ

Event analysis is a modern method aimed at studying the reaction of financial markets to key events. The effectiveness of the market is determined by the speed and unambiguity of its reaction: the faster and clearer the market reacts, the more effective it is considered. Thus, event analysis has significant indicative value. One of the approaches to securities market analysis, known as event analysis, is a form of rapid analysis aimed at identifying the impact of various events on changes in securities. As part of the study, the impact of the publication of financial statements on the dynamics of share prices of Russian companies included in the information technology Index was analyzed. In the course of the research, the method of event analysis, the method of least squares were used. The results showed that on the day of publication of the report, some companies have abnormal returns other than zero. With the help of event analysis, Russian companies of the information technology index were analyzed. This study is of practical importance for investors, as it demonstrates how the publication of reports affects changes in the value of shares. This makes it possible to predict changes in the value of shares in advance and build a successful trading strategy.

Risk management mastery: The key to successful trading

Risk management mastery: The key to successful trading

The Level of Understanding on Islamic Barter Trading among Selected Maranao Businessmen in Marawi City

Before the introduction of money, societies relied on barter and direct trade systems for exchanging goods and services which presented challenges due to the lack of a standardized medium of exchange and difficulties in valuing different goods. Hence, this study focused on the level of understanding on Islamic barter trading among selected Maranao businessmen in Marawi City, covering various aspects such as rulings in Islamic trading, determining the value of an item, and selecting the goods to barter. The researchers aimed to assess respondents' comprehension of Islamic barter trading and identify the challenges they encountered, including location, religion, and communication. The study involved 50 respondents and employed a mixed-method analysis, combining quantitative and qualitative data. While most data came from quantitative methods, qualitative responses from five participants were collected for deeper insights. A specially designed instrument was used to gather information on the obstacles faced in Islamic barter trading, which was then subjected to statistical analysis. The findings showed that the majority of respondents were female, aged 23-29, married, and college graduates. Most of them engaged in ready-to-wear (RTW) businesses and primarily traded clothes. The respondents agreed that it is important to seek guidance from Muslim scholars in order to have a clear understanding of the ethics and principles of barter trading. The respondents also suggested that barter trading should involve equal exchanges and fair treatment of the other party, and some respondents even recommended refraining from barter trading altogether to avoid receiving damaged goods from other traders. The study aimed to contribute to the enhancement of Islamic barter trading and address challenges faced by Maranao businessmen, ultimately facilitating more successful trading within the Islamic barter system.

Correlation-based investment strategies: A comparison between Chinese and US stock markets

This paper studies the feasibility of correlation-based investment strategies in the Chinese and US stock markets. After testing eight different correlations between returns and various factors under two different stock selection methods, the highest correlation is identified between returns and volatility under the Pearson correlation coefficient, in which the volatility is defined as the ratio of the differences between the maximum and minimum prices within two successive trading days. The investment strategies are investigated under two stock selection methods and three portfolio construction methods, and SSCI and S&P500 Index are chosen as benchmarks respectively. In the Chinese stock market the contrarian strategy obtain significant positive excess returns while in the US stock market the momentum strategy perform better. The results show that correlation-based investment strategy is more feasible in the Chinese stock market than in the US, and the US stock market is more efficient than the Chinese stock market.

Assessing the potential and challenges for trilateral trade integration among Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia

ABSTRACT Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia possess diverse natural resources and a substantial labor force that permit forming a successful trade integration. However, the recent dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) project between Ethiopia and downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan, has weakened the bilateral relations and disrupted trade flows among the three countries. This paper investigates the pattern of trilateral trade between Egypt, Sudan and Ethiopia during the period between 1995 and 2018. The study also examines the prospects and challenges for establishing a trilateral trade integration between the three countries. The study adopted the gravity model approach, along with the export diversification and trade complementarity indices, in order to scrutinize the pattern and structure of trade between the countries under study. The analysis indicated that Egypt is the most diversified economy with many crucial comparative advantages, which may grant it a leader position in the integration. Moreover, the paper revealed many challenges that may hinder the implementation of trilateral trade integration including, export concentration, poor infrastructure and disputes over water resources. Finally, the paper recommends that facilitating bilateral trade among the riparian countries of Eastern Nile Basin would mitigate the complex clashes over water rights.

Combining deep reinforcement learning with technical analysis and trend monitoring on cryptocurrency markets

Cryptocurrency markets experienced a significant increase in the popularity, which motivated many financial traders to seek high profits in cryptocurrency trading. The predominant tool that traders use to identify profitable opportunities is technical analysis. Some investors and researchers also combined technical analysis with machine learning, in order to forecast upcoming trends in the market. However, even with the use of these methods, developing successful trading strategies is still regarded as an extremely challenging task. Recently, deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithms demonstrated satisfying performance in solving complicated problems, including the formulation of profitable trading strategies. While some DRL techniques have been successful in increasing profit and loss (PNL) measures, these techniques are not much risk-aware and present difficulty in maximizing PNL and lowering trading risks simultaneously. This research proposes the combination of DRL approaches with rule-based safety mechanisms to both maximize PNL returns and minimize trading risk. First, a DRL agent is trained to maximize PNL returns, using a novel reward function. Then, during the exploitation phase, a rule-based mechanism is deployed to prevent uncertain actions from being executed. Finally, another novel safety mechanism is proposed, which considers the actions of a more conservatively trained agent, in order to identify high-risk trading periods and avoid trading. Our experiments on 5 popular cryptocurrencies show that the integration of these three methods achieves very promising results.

David Veevers. The Origins of the British Empire in Asia, 1600–1750.

David Veevers has written an original and stimulating work on the history of the English East India Company in South and Southeast Asia during the seventeenth and early eighteenth centuries. The book’s main arguments address the evergreen questions of when and how the East India Company established an empire in Asia. Veevers’s unequivocal answers are that the roots of empire are to be found long before the East India Company conquered significant territory in India during the 1750s and 1760s, which traditionally has been seen as the beginning of the company’s empire, and that the actions of the company’s agents, or servants, in Asia were much more significant in laying the groundwork for empire than political maneuverings, decisions, and events in London. Veevers divides his book into four parts of unequal length. The first part, “Weakness and Adaptation,” sets the stage for his arguments by examining the company’s early failures to establish successful trade settlements, or factories, on the island of Java and at Masulipatam and Armagon on the east coast of India. He notes the lack of corporate investment, the strength of the Dutch East India Company, and the inability of English servants in Asia to ingratiate themselves with local powers. Veevers then details how the Company’s servants adjusted their posture to local elites through intermarriage and the pursuit of private trade, with the result that more profitable business avenues were opened to the company. Veevers focuses on the founding of Madras to reinforce his point that real initiative and power shifted from London to the company’s servants in Madras who sustained the company’s trade through the cultivation of personal relationships with indigenous elites.

Reflexivity and the Market Mind Hypothesis: Why George Soros is Not a Failed Philosopher (and What it Means for Economics, the Economy, and Investing)

George Soros is one of the best traders of all time. That is the general consensus. While Soros gladly accepts that compliment he frequently also expressed his frustration that he failed as a philosopher. Specifically, he admits that he was unable to formulate his philosophy of reflexivity from its original abstractions. More importantly, reflexivity—which informed his successful trading—did not get the academic recognition that Soros’s track record suggests it deserves. This paper will discuss the reasons for this, the key one being that reflexivity points to the elephant in economics’s room. This will be highlighted by explaining reflexivity, from its original abstractions, in novel terms provided by cognitive science. In particular, via philosophy of mind this paper will argue why Soros is not a failed philosopher. This leads to the submission that reflexivity deserves proper recognition as an early contribution to the emerging field of cognitive economics, for which the Market Mind Hypothesis is a standard bearer. Moreover, the issues discussed are relevant in the wider context of our economic predicament.

Статистичний аналіз та прогнозування складових національного валютного ринку в умовах вторгнення рф в Україну

The article focuses on determining the impact of the consequences of the russian invasion of Ukraine on macroeconomic stability and the exchange rate of the national currency. The relevance of the chosen topic is substantiated. The problems of assessing the negative consequences of the russian invasion of Ukraine are outlined, including: violation of general macroeconomic stability, significant fluctuations in foreign exchange markets and destabilization of the national currency. The study considers the theoretical and methodological foundations of the study of foreign exchange markets and analyzes global trends in the development of the global currency market. The structure of world currency reserves is analyzed according to the assessment of the currency composition of the official currency reserve (COFER) of the IMF. The analysis of the dynamics of average spreads of purchase and sale of reserve currencies against the US dollar for traditional and non-traditional reserve currencies is carried out. As a result of studying world trends, the main factors that affect fluctuations in the exchange rate of currencies are identified. The main problems regarding the functioning of the national currency market in the context of the hostilities in Ukraine are outlined, in particular, the existing inflationary processes are analyzed. The dynamics of currency interventions of the NBU for 2021-2022 is considered. The features (advantages) of the application and the results of using the singular spectral analysis (SSA) method for predicting fluctuations in the US dollar and Euro in the national foreign exchange market are presented. The practical implementation of this method was carried out using the CaterpillarSSA software product. Evaluation of the accuracy of the forecast is performed using the MAPE method. The obtained forecast errors (less than 6%) suggest that the constructed models are adequate and can be used for further research and recommendations. Thus, it can be concluded that for Ukraine the most important factors affecting the exchange rate are seasonality and successful trade policy of the government, which, in turn, largely depends on resource prices. The carried out research allowed to highlight the features and main aspects of the functioning of the foreign exchange market of Ukraine during the period of ongoing military aggression.