Статистичний аналіз та прогнозування складових національного валютного ринку в умовах вторгнення рф в Україну

Abstract

The article focuses on determining the impact of the consequences of the russian invasion of Ukraine on macroeconomic stability and the exchange rate of the national currency. The relevance of the chosen topic is substantiated. The problems of assessing the negative consequences of the russian invasion of Ukraine are outlined, including: violation of general macroeconomic stability, significant fluctuations in foreign exchange markets and destabilization of the national currency. The study considers the theoretical and methodological foundations of the study of foreign exchange markets and analyzes global trends in the development of the global currency market. The structure of world currency reserves is analyzed according to the assessment of the currency composition of the official currency reserve (COFER) of the IMF. The analysis of the dynamics of average spreads of purchase and sale of reserve currencies against the US dollar for traditional and non-traditional reserve currencies is carried out. As a result of studying world trends, the main factors that affect fluctuations in the exchange rate of currencies are identified. The main problems regarding the functioning of the national currency market in the context of the hostilities in Ukraine are outlined, in particular, the existing inflationary processes are analyzed. The dynamics of currency interventions of the NBU for 2021-2022 is considered. The features (advantages) of the application and the results of using the singular spectral analysis (SSA) method for predicting fluctuations in the US dollar and Euro in the national foreign exchange market are presented. The practical implementation of this method was carried out using the CaterpillarSSA software product. Evaluation of the accuracy of the forecast is performed using the MAPE method. The obtained forecast errors (less than 6%) suggest that the constructed models are adequate and can be used for further research and recommendations. Thus, it can be concluded that for Ukraine the most important factors affecting the exchange rate are seasonality and successful trade policy of the government, which, in turn, largely depends on resource prices. The carried out research allowed to highlight the features and main aspects of the functioning of the foreign exchange market of Ukraine during the period of ongoing military aggression.