Subsequent Crisis Research Articles

From Merkel to Kramp‐Karrenbauer: Can German Christian Democracy Reinvent Itself?

AbstractGermany's Christian Democrats have started preparing for the time after Angela Merkel. After ten years as German chancellor facing a weak opposition, Merkel unexpectedly split the country in late 2015 and early 2016 because of her ‘open border’ policies that allowed more than 1 million refugees and migrants to rapidly enter Germany. Her management of the subsequent crisis was largely considered a failure and her party suffered a series of dramatic election defeats. Reacting to the negative electoral feedback, and in particular the breakthrough of the rightist and anti‐immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD), the Christian Democratic Union organised an intra‐party contest to replace Merkel as party leader. Three candidates with different political profiles, Annegret Kramp‐Karrenbauer, Friedrich Merz and Jens Spahn, contested the election. By voting for Kramp‐Karrenbauer, the CDU membership voiced support for maintaining a large‐scale political coalition based on efforts to find compromises between different party wings and social and cultural interests.

We need to talk (more wisely) about wisdom: A set of conversations about wisdom, science, and futures

This paper is a structured dialogue between the four authors on the question “what might constitute wisdom for the future?” With each author exploring a distinct but related angle we first consider four aspects: The traditional view of wisdom linked to philosophy and the humanities and how the development and subsequent crisis of science has eroded this; how knowledge and wisdom differ and how embracing complexity might be required to make wise decisions; how wise decisions can be contradictory across different ‘levels’ and how it might be possible to navigate these differences; and how wisdom involves balancing learning from the past whilst being open to the future. The second part of the paper entails reflections and comments on each of these four aspects done by two of the authors on the inputs by the other two, and vice-versa. In the third section, we share views on how wisdom is linked to action; and to decision-making and even reflection; and not just to knowledge. In assessing what constitutes wisdom for the future, our conversation suggests it is important to acknowledge and address the crises science is currently undergoing. This includes practices which embrace uncertainty, ignorance and complexity. We discuss three approaches which can be deployed, alone or together, to that effect. They are scenario planning as a tool to contemplate multiple possibilities and navigate the future; Post-Normal Science as a theory for understanding uncertainty; and hosting and supporting more meaningful and more courageous conversations.

Ever More Financial Instability Notwithstanding the Basel Standards and the IMF’s Financial Sector Assessment Program

Asian crisis in the late 1990s exposed the inherent deficiencies of Basel I, and exactly a decade later the 2008 global credit mayhem clearly proved that the Revised Framework (Basel II) and the IMF’s Financial Sector Assessment Program contributed to instability rather than averting high-magnitude future crises. The propagation of financial turmoil and the subsequent crises in this millennium has made safeguarding of global financial stability the utmost task of government authorities worldwide. The stringent new Basel III reforms have become a central focus in the post-GFC to strengthen the observed weaknesses under both Basel I & II. While proponents argue that higher capital ratios will help alleviate or eliminate the exorbitant costs of crises, opponents fear that the stricter capital rules along with tighter liquidity may cause a contraction in credit markets and inhibit economic activity. The study employs DSGE and VECM models to estimate the cost impact of the regulatory tightening on bank capital, lending spreads, and steady state output across ASEAN-5 and Turkey. Based on our methodology, our estimates show that in the aggregate the banking sectors of ASEAN-5 as a whole need to raise $111.37 billion of fresh capital to meet our target 24% CAR of RWAs, Turkey’s banking sector needs to come up with little over $32 billion. At this background, ASEAN-5 and Turkish banks would be forced to raise their lending spreads on average by circa 20 bps 50 bps. To meet the Basel III regulatory minima by the January 2019 deadline, banks would have to increase lending spreads on average by about 70 bps across ASEAN-5 and 636 bps in Turkey. After a 4-year implementation, we estimate that a 1 pp rise in the CET1/RWAs without any liquidity tightening results in output loss of -0.07% per annum for ASEAN-5 economies and -0.18% for Turkey. However, this paper concludes that economic benefits of Basel III outweigh its economic costs in the long-run.

Urban Sprawl in Inner Medium-Sized Cities: The Behaviour in Some Spanish Cases Since the Beginning of the 21st Century

The processes of urban sprawl that have been present over the past two decades in the different strata of the urban hierarchy have also affected, as a whole, medium-sized cities. The urban sprawl has been particularly pronounced during the period of expansive Spanish urbanism, in which many of the municipalities situated in the vicinities of large cities have been affected by major demographic dynamics and (sub)urbanisation development outside the traditional city limits. Sometimes, these processes have been greater than the nearby cities in the urban area where they are inserted. In this study, we examine the general mechanisms identified within an urban crown size (within a radius of 30 km) and at the scale of the municipality, based on an analysis of two distinct periods: one linked to a strong growth dynamic (2000–2008), and another related to subsequent crisis (2009–2016). A group of 23 inner medium-sized Spanish cities has been analysed, taking into account the trends of the population, the surface of unbuilt plots, the built surface, and the amount of housing. We have identified the typologies of their respective urban areas over the two periods considered.

Libya and the New Axis of Terror: Reshaping the Security Theater in MENA and Europe

The exponential expansion of Islamist groups in both numbers and geographic scope to Libya and Syria between 2011 and 2017, and the subsequent refugee crisis it sparked, has led to a rapidly deteri...

Anticipating the Bust: A New Cyclical Systemic Risk Indicator to Assess the Likelihood and Severity of Financial Crises

This paper presents a tractable, transparent and broad-based domestic cyclical systemic risk indicator (d-SRI) that captures risks stemming from domestic credit, real estate markets, asset prices, and external imbalances. The d-SRI increases on average several years before the onset of systemic financial crises, and its early warning properties for euro area countries are superior to those of the total credit-to-GDP gap. In addition, the level of the d-SRI around the start of financial crises is highly correlated with measures of subsequent crisis severity, such as GDP declines. Model estimates suggest that the d-SRI has significant predictive power for large declines in real GDP growth three to four years down the line, as it precedes shifts in the entire distribution of future real GDP growth and especially of its left tail. The d-SRI therefore provides useful information about both the probability and the likely cost of systemic financial crises many years in advance. Given its timely signals, the d-SRI is a useful analytical tool for macroprudential policymakers.

Efectos clínicos del tratamiento con hidroxiurea en pacientes de 3 a 17 años, con diagnóstico de anemia falciforme Hospital Infantil Dr. Robert Reid Cabral, período Septiembre 2009-2015 Santo Domingo, República Dominicana

Objetivo: Analizar los efectos clínicos de la hidroxiurea, demostrada como la única terapia modificadora de la anemia falciforme.
 Método: El presente estudio es de carácter observacional y descriptivo. Población: 210 pacientes con anemia falciforme bajo terapia con hidroxiurea. Muestra: muestreo no probabilístico por conveniencia, constituida por los pacientes de la población que cumplían con los criterios de inclusión (92 pacientes).
 Resultados: De los pacientes estudiados (100%); el 87% fueron falcémicos HbSS, que empezaron su terapia entre los 3 y 9 años (60%), con un número promedio de cinco seguimientos en 1-2 años de terapia. Se observó una reducción importante (51%) (p<0.00001) en el número total de crisis posterior al tratamiento con hidroxiurea, y reducción de ingresos hospitalarios (57%) (p=0.000019) y número de transfusiones sanguíneas (84%) (p=0.000033). Más tiempo con la terapia se traduce en: aumento Hb y VCM, disminución de leucocitos y plaquetas, y una variación dentro de los límites de los perfiles hepático y renal.
 Discusión y conclusiones: La hidroxiurea es bien tolerada, segura y eficaz, demostrando reducción significativa en el número de crisis, transfusiones sanguíneas y hospitalizaciones, así como aumento de la hemoglobina y VCM. No se documentaron efectos secundarios importantes.

Import Dependency of Exports as a Cause of Current Account Deficit

The rapid increase in import dependency of exports and current account imbalances in many countries over the last two decades led many researchers to argue that they may be correlated and the increase in IDE may be the main cause of current account imbalances. This argument is important because historical evidence suggests that large and persistent current account imbalances often lead to subsequent corrective crisis. If the increase in IDE is a major cause of current account imbalances, reducing it becomes an important policy option to prevent further crisis. While there is a large literature on both global value chains (the main cause of IDE) and current account imbalances, the literature that investigates the link between them is very new and limited. This paper aims to contribute to this limited literature.

Audience Costs and the Dynamics of War and Peace

AbstractWe estimate audience costs and examine their substantive effects on the evolution of interstate disputes by using an infinitely repeated and dynamic game of crisis escalation. Unlike past efforts, our approach estimates country‐specific audience cost parameters without relying on proxy variables, such as democracy measures. Contrary to intuition, increases in a country's audience costs encourage it to initiate disputes in equilibrium because the costs serve as a commitment device during the subsequent crisis, incentivizing the country to stand firm and coercing its opponent to back down. Nonetheless, the results demonstrate that larger audience costs would result in more peace worldwide, as they also discourage potential opponents from initiating disputes. Beyond regime type, we find that a free press, provisions for executive appointment or removal, and historical rivalries are also important determinants of audience costs.

Managing the Planet: The Anthropocene, Good Stewardship, and the Empty Promise of a Solution to Ecological Crisis

The Anthropocene has emerged as the dominant conceptualization of the current geological epoch and, more significantly, of Humanity’s relation to nature. By its proponents the Anthropocene is espoused as a “solution formulation”, an analytical tool that clarifies Humanity’s multifarious impacts on nature and nature’s subsequent crises, and further as a conceptual apparatus from which to launch mitigation and adaption strategies, promising deliverance from or at least engagement with ecological crises. However, the Anthropocene is not a neutral concept, merely illuminating transition within ecological conditions and connections between human activities and nature; rather, it is a particular prism from which to understand humanity’s relation to nature. And, as the Anthropocene becomes ascendant both analytically and politically, it becomes vital to question its imaginary, how it constructs nature and Humanity, how it influences and constrains responses to ecological crises, and what the long-term implications of operating within this imaginary are. I argue that the Anthropocene as a political/analytical prism rests upon flawed conceptions of nature, history, and humanity, rending it an impotent construct from which to respond to ecological crises; offering only partial and presumptive “solutions” in the form of intensified governmental regulation and the application of manifold technological “fixes” through the geoengineering of Earth’s systems in an attempt to address isolated aspects of ecological destruction.

РОЛЬ ЗОЛОТОГО ЗАПАСУ В ЗАБЕЗПЕЧЕННІ СТАЛОГО ЕКОНОМІЧНОГО РОЗВИТКУ УКРАЇНИ

В статті розглянуто роль золотовалютних резервів, зокрема золота, як індикатора ефективності економіки України. Незначні темпи економічного зростання, економічна криза свідчать про те , що в державі недооцінюється роль золота в якості валютної ліквідності, стабілізації національної валюти та подолання інфляційних ризиків. Визначено переваги золотодобувних країн, адже вони автоматично стають виробником валюти. Проведено аналіз соціально-економічної ситуації в Україні, дефіциту поточного рахунку платіжного балансу. Золото може стати для країни та інвесторів гарантом економічної стабільності та безпеки. Розглянуто можливість в отриманні власного промислового золота, окреслено перспективи відновлення і розвитку золотодобувної промисловості України.

Unemployment and effects of the first work experience of university graduates on their idea of a job

ABSTRACTThe financial and subsequent economic crisis caused a sharp deterioration in labour market conditions which particularly affected the youth group. Southern nations were affected the most, while e.g. Germany, Austria and the Czech Republic were less affected. 42.3% of university graduates are registered in the Czech Republic Labour Office for longer than 5 months. This article aims to analyse youth unemployment in the European Union (EU) with an emphasis on the Czech Republic, which is below the EU-28 average. Based on the questionnaire survey, employment of university graduates in the labour market was analysed and the following hypothesis was tested: With a change in the status of a future graduate to an employed graduate, their willingness to retreat from their demands to find the required job, changes’. The result of the survey discovered that after finding the first job, there is reduction in graduates’ demands on a job.

Межэтническое и этноконфессиональное развитие дагестанского общества в современных условиях: особенности и специфика развития

 The aim of the article is to analyze the current situation of interethnic and ethno-confessional development of Dagestan society.Methods. As the main methods, the author uses the principles and approaches of social dialectics. The article is written on the basis of various literary, documentary and archival sources.Results. The author in the course of the study comes to the conclusion that the geopolitical and geographical position of Dagestan, the features of the interethnic and ethno-confessional identity of its inhabitants and a number of other important factors and preconditions influence the political situation and interethnic relations. The USSR collapse and the subsequent crisis of society showed that relations between different ethnic groups are one of the most vulnerable spheres of human relations.Ðionclusion. Interethnic respect is the main condition for the coexistence of the peoples of Dagestan. With aim of the prosperity of all the peoples of Dagestan, it is necessary to provide a policy of cooperation and friendship between them, the creation of common coordinating political and economic structures in modern society of Dagestan.Â

Using Knowledge Organization Systems to Automatically Detect Forward-looking Sentiment in Company Reports to Infer Social Phenomena

KO KNOWLEDGE ORGANIZATION , Seite 152 - 169

Lines of Sight in the Western

Lines of Sight in the Western Joanna Hearne (bio) Let me start out by stating the most obvious possible fact about cinema in general: it was made for our eyes and is organized around our patterns of ocular attention, especially lines of sight, both in its apparatus of exhibition involving machines, celluloid, and light and also in its grammar of visual storytelling. Lines of sight orient us to human actions, social relations, spatial relations, and relations to that imagined environment, or landscape, that we call setting. They inform the basic building blocks of film language, including fundamental editing patterns of shot / reverse shot, eyeline matches, point-of-view shots, and reaction shots, as well as compositional conventions such as “eye room” and balance. Lines of sight also direct our attention within static or mobile shots, often through various kinds of suggestive mimicry of human vision such as subjective shots or on-screen vision-enhancing props like binoculars, telescopes, or rifle sights. Our movies are always telling us about ways of seeing. That quintessential, originary cinematic genre, the Western, is built with the same tools as other kinds of cinema, but the Western is unique in the way that it marries lines of sight to the territoriality of its putative location. Of course this landscape is symbolic, and places in the West are often represented using practices of substitution (Monument Valley for Texas in The Searchers, for example). The system of illusion involves backstage production and an onstage that is “captioned” in order to activate our imagined West. These imagined lands are the heart of this storytelling genre—both the ground upon which its struggles take place and the stake to be won or lost in that struggle, as Stuart Hall says of popular culture. Frederick Jackson Turner famously argued [End Page 97] that American character was defined through the frontier, the “existence of an area of free land” (1), but of course Westerns, for all their exaggerations, show us that the land was not free; rather, it was taken by violence. Because Westerns, as a rule, are about conquest, theft of land, and subsequent crises of settler legitimacy on that stolen land. Click for larger view View full resolution Fig. 1. Hawkeye (Daniel Day-Lewis), a settler colonial sharpshooter “gone Native” in The Last of the Mohicans, 1992. I begin here with a discussion of how Westerns—a dominant film genre if there ever was one—privilege certain forms of oppositionality over other kinds of social encounters on the land. A quick overview of some “looking relations” involving lines of sight in the classic Western reveals its genealogical descent from imperial travel writing, which, as Mary Louise Pratt demonstrated some time ago in her book Imperial Eyes, has long relied on the vision of the colonizing figure, the look wielded by the “Master of all I survey” upon the New World landscape, whether that land is imagined as empty or populated by Indigenous peoples. In Westerns, mechanistic extensions of human vision—occasionally survey transits or binoculars but most often the gunsights of a rifle—remake that human vision into a form of domination, empowered with settler colonial force. The power of visual storytelling itself is signified by the ability of the gun to translate a sharpshooter’s vision into destructive action in the material world. The shooter’s gendered and racially coded gaze, amplified by devices that are also metaphors for the moving picture camera, is a structural part of the well-established “gun/camera trope.” [End Page 98] Click for larger view View full resolution Fig. 2. Ringo Kid (John Wayne) in Stagecoach, 1939. For the sharpshooter—or even just your average Western gunslinger, for they are all good shots—the detecting gaze and the use of force travel the same route. Like a camera, the rifle’s hyperbolic gunsights tell the story of our interaction with an imagined landscape, characterizing that interaction as a form of subjugation dependent upon the relationship of seeing to action. Characters leverage surveying, aiming, and other forms of machine-enhanced visual reconnaissance into narrative mastery through “shooting.” This gun/camera trope has been understood by theorists such as Susan Sontag, Donna Haraway, and...

Hereafter: How Crises Shape Communities Through Learning and Institutional Legacies

Community differences in organizing capacity have been attributed to cohesion and trust among population members and from population members to organizations and have been seen as an enduring feature of communities. The experience of a crisis, and the handling of the crisis, can be seen as a test of cohesion that verifies community support of organizations or proves its absence. Using data on two bank panics 14 years apart, we explore whether a crisis event affects whether banks in a community handle the subsequent crisis through community collective action or through executing interorganizational solutions. We find that banks are less likely to seek community support when a prior financial crisis exposes the lack of trust from community members but are more likely to do so when having the experience of successfully avoiding a looming crisis. Organizational memory carries past experience into the future, and the banks that have directly experienced the absence of community trust prefer an interorganizational solution for the next financial crisis. The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/orsc.2017.1157 .

The CEO‟s Managerial Skills, Ups and Downs of a Firm and Crisis

We are dealing in this paper with the general issue of management crisis, crisis as inflection and disturbing point for the economic entity. There many causes for the appearance and ongoing of crisis within socio-economic systems. We chose the most important cause: that of the action and decision-making of the outstanding human resource and propeller for the entire activity, the CEO.Starting from Peter Drucker‟s allegation that the CEO is the power-link between the organization and the business/natural environment, we want to highlight that the plans, the ideas, and intentions of a CEO dedicated and efficient lead to efforts and costs inside the entity and results (bad or good) outside, into society and markets. The CEO is main person to see, to predict, the opportunities for the performance of the company. BUT, the results can be favorable on medium run, or only on short run, involving possible subsequent crisis, consisting on undulating movements of the entity activity.Specifically, we propose the situation of John Reed, former CEO of Citicorp (then Citigroup), in fact the architect of the complex mega-financial structure which became Citigroup and negative repercussions occurred from factual financial activity of the corporation.

Japan’s Middle East Policy, 1972–1974: Resources Diplomacy, Pro-American Policy, and New Left

ABSTRACTCommentators generally accept that the Yom Kippur War and subsequent oil crisis crystallised Japan’s overtly pro-Arab stance. This analysis challenges that view—even after the oil embargo, Japan’s Middle Eastern policy was both discretely and, at times, blatantly pro-American. Admittedly, the Japanese government had a seemingly ambiguous attitude towards the Arab–Israeli conflict and on-going conflict between oil-producing countries and oil companies; however, responsible for formulating the Arab–Israeli policy, the Foreign Ministry preferred to follow American leadership in the region for reasons of national security and Cold War imperatives. The Foreign Ministry’s response to the 1972 Lod Airport Massacre, a radicalised Japanese New Left terrorist attack, revealed a determination to gain international credibility by more actively supporting the West. Lod buttressed the influence of the pro-American contingent in the government; and the 1973 Arab oil embargo did not undermine their position. Although the Cabinet eventually issued a public statement supporting the Arab cause to satisfy the Japanese public, the pro-American contingent succeeded surreptitiously in bringing the Cabinet together to uphold the American-led petroleum order as well as United States leadership in Cold War politics.

Explicating the information vacuum: stages, intensifications, and implications

PurposeInformation vacuums (IVs) arise from organizational failure to satisfy the stakeholders’ informational demands during crises. The purpose of this paper is to expand Pang’s (2013) study of the phenomenon of IV by investigating its nature, stages, intensifying factors and resolution.Design/methodology/approachPrint and social media data of five recent international crises with apparent IVs were analyzed.FindingsPoor crisis communications are intensifying factors that induce media hijacks and hypes, distancing, and public confusion. A four-stage model maps the phenomenon into a flow chart describing its development. IV termination begins when organizations either respond with information or provide solutions, results, and/or compensation. Natural and strategic silence were observed and defined.Research limitations/implicationsThe study lays the foundation for future examination of how media literacy, governments, and culture, both societal and organizational, induce or exacerbate the phenomenon.Practical implicationsImmediate, adequate, transparent, credible, and consistent crisis responses manage the IV and crisis, diminish the intensification of subsequent crises, and potentially reduce image and reputational damages.Originality/valueThe knowledge of the phenomenon is further developed and new theoretical models are conceptualized to provide researchers and practitioners a clearer understanding of how an IV can develop, persist, deepen, and resolve.

Failed Bank Asset Recovery: The Influence of Deposits and Loan Exposure

Asset recovery rate is a key factor for credit investors. This study explores the determinants of bank asset recovery rates during the recent downturn in the real estate sector and subsequent financial crisis. We find that banks relying on brokered deposit realize lower asset recovery rates. This suggests that these banks hold assets of poorer quality at the time of failure. In the lead up to failure, banks unable to attract new funds via brokered deposits will sell assets, typically the highest-quality, most-marketable assets, and the outcome is higher exposure to lower quality loans. Our results also suggest that the influence of real estate loan exposure on asset recovery rates is important following periods of significant downturn in property values. Finally, we believe this research will shed valuable lights for policy makers in dealing with assets of failed banks.