Study Of Long-term Variability Research Articles

General relativistic hydrodynamic simulations of perturbed transonic accretion

Contact. Comparing horizon-scale observations of Sgr A* and M 87* with numerical simulations has provided considerable insight into their interpretation. Most of these simulations are variations of the same physical scenario consisting of a rotation-supported torus seeded with poloidal magnetic fields. However, this approach has several well-known limitations such as secular decreasing trends in mass-accretion rates that render long-term variability studies difficult; a lack of connection with the large-scale accretion flow, which is replaced by an artificial medium emulating vacuum; and significant differences with respect to the predictions of models of accretion onto Sgr A* fed by stellar winds. Aims. We aim to study the flow patterns that arise on horizon scales in more general accretion scenarios that have a clearer connection with the large-scale flow, and are at the same time controlled by a reduced set of parameters. Methods. As a first step in this direction, we performed three-dimensional general relativistic hydrodynamic simulations of rotating transonic flows with velocity perturbations injected from a spherical boundary located far away from the central object (1000 gravitational radii). We studied the general properties of these flows with varying perturbation amplitudes and angular momentum. We analyzed time series of mass and angular-momentum radial fluxes, angle- and time-averaged profiles, and synthetic bremsstrahlung light curves, as well as the three-dimensional structure of the flow, and quantified shock and sonic transitions in the solutions. Results. We observe a rich phenomenology in accretion patterns, which includes smooth Bondi-like flows, turbulent torus-like structures, shocks, filaments, and complex sonic structures. For sufficiently large perturbations and angular momentum, radial profiles deviate from the constant entropy and constant angular-momentum profiles used for initialization and resemble those of advection-dominated accretion flows, showing evidence of entropy generation and angular-momentum redistribution not mediated by magnetic fields. Time series do not show the secular decreasing trend and are suitable for long-term variability studies. We see that the fluctuations are amplified and extend further in frequency than the injected spectrum, producing a red noise spectrum both for the mass-accretion rate and the synthetic light curves. Conclusions. We present a simulation setup that can produce a wide variety of flow patterns at horizon scales and incorporate information from large scale accretion models. The future inclusion of magnetic fields and radiative cooling could make this type of simulation a viable alternative for the numerical modeling of general low-luminosity active galactic nuclei (AGNs).

МНОГОЛЕТНЯЯ ИЗМЕНЧИВОСТЬ БИОМАССЫ ОКЕАНИЧЕСКОГО ЗООПЛАНКТОНА

Numerous scientific publications are dedicated to the analysis of long-term variability of zooplankton biomass in oceanic and neritic zones of the World Ocean. The number of these publications keeps growing with the availability of new data. Relevance of this research can be attributed to the crucial role of zooplankton biomass in the spatio-temporal and trophic structure of aquatic ecosystems. Inter-annual fluctuations of zooplankton biomass affect the catch volumes of small pelagic fish. This research is aimed at identification of statistically valid long-term trends of the World Ocean zooplankton biomass, which involves the analysis of the data from databases and published articles describing such variability. Regional and international databases (namely COPEPOD, HOT, JGOFS, ODATE and others), which are available in the form of CDs, archived materials, and online, have been used. For the time series of the biomass across 21 areas of the World Ocean (Pacific, Indian, Atlantic Oceans and internal seas), the regression analysis has been conducted, which made it possible to estimate the parameters of linear monotonic trends. Based on bivariate spatial autocorrelation functions, the areas within which the trends are statistically homogeneous have been identified. A comparative study of long-term variability of zooplankton biomass, phytoplankton biomass, primary production, and the total live biomass of the pelagic World Ocean is presented. It is shown that the spatial distribution of positive, negative and neutral trends of zooplankton biomass on the World Ocean scale is heterogeneous. The negative monotonic trends of zooplankton biomass are found to be prevailing (in 1980–2010s); the regression parameters describing them are presented.

Influence of ambient relative humidity on horizontal visibility in the two cities of western Nepal having contrasting urban-cum-industrial backgrounds and study of long-term variation

Atmospheric visibility, a measure of horizontal distance one can distinctly see with unaided eye, is affected by the scattering and absorption of visible light by the tiny particles (aerosols), or different gases present in the atmosphere. Thus, visibility is commonly considered a proxy for ambient air quality. The long-term trend of visibility may reflect the change in the air quality of a place over the period. In our study, we have analyzed historic climatological data (1977-2020) from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) global hourly archive, for the two cities of west Nepal, namely, Bhairahawa (BWA, 27.506 °N, 83.416 °E) and Surkhet (SKH, 28.6 °N, and 81.617 °E). We have found that both of the synoptic stations exhibited persistent degraded visibility. BWA had poorer visibility conditions (poor air quality) than that of SKH since the beginning of the study period. Since 2014, the ‘annual good day’ (V ≥ 10 km ) at BWA is steadily near 0%, and the ‘annual bad day’ (V < 5 km) is ≈ 60%, suggesting a degraded air quality. Similarly, we observed a notable decline in the 50th percentile of visibility in the mid-1980s at SKH, and a sharp decline of ‘good day’ since 2011. Meteorology modifies the optical properties of aerosol/ gaseous in the atmosphere, thereby, resulting in a change in visibility. In our study, we have investigated the influence of relative humidity (RH) on prevailing visibility. Although the relationship between them exists in both of the stations, it is more distinctly visible at BWA. We observed lower visibility conditions (V ≤ 3 km) occurring at an RH level as low as 50% at BWA. This indicates an abundance of specific hygroscopic aerosols, whose light extinction thresholds are as low. At BWA, the impact of RH is evident during the dry season. In contrast, the threshold value of RH is quite high (80%) at SKH and the relationship is prominent during the wet season. This alarmingly poor air quality at both stations requires a serious concern because of its adverse impact on various sectors like aviation, tourism, and public health.

Observation of night-time emissions of the Earth in the near UV range from the International Space Station with the Mini-EUSO detector

Mini-EUSO (Multiwavelength Imaging New Instrument for the Extreme Universe Space Observatory) is a telescope observing the Earth from the International Space Station since 2019. The instrument employs a Fresnel-lens optical system and a focal surface composed of 36 Multi-Anode Photomultiplier tubes, 64 channels each, for a total of 2304 channels with single photon counting sensitivity. Mini-EUSO also contains two ancillary cameras to complement measurements in the near infrared and visible ranges. The scientific objectives of the mission range from the search for Extensive Air Showers (EAS) generated by Ultra-High Energy Cosmic Rays (UHECRs) with energies above 1021eV, the search for nuclearites and Strange Quark Matter (SQM), up to the study of atmospheric phenomena such as Transient Luminous Events (TLEs), meteors and meteoroids. Mini-EUSO can map the night-time Earth in the near UV range (predominantly between 290–430 nm) with a spatial resolution of about 6.3 km (full field of view equal to 44°) and a maximum temporal resolution of 2.5μs, observing our planet through a nadir-facing UV-transparent window in the Russian Zvezda module. The detector saves triggered transient phenomena with a sampling rate of 2.5μs and 320μs, as well as continuous acquisition at 40.96 ms scale. In this paper we discuss the detector response and the flat-fielding and calibration procedures. Using the 40.96 ms data, we present ≃6.3 km resolution night-time Earth maps in the UV band, and report on various emissions of anthropogenic and natural origin. We measure ionospheric airglow emissions of dark moonless nights over the sea and ground, studying the effect of clouds, moonlight, and artificial (towns, boats) lights. In addition to paving the way forward for the study of long-term variations of light of natural and artificial origin, we also estimate the observation live-time of future UHECR detectors.

The potential of Meudon spectroheliograph for investigating long term solar activity and variability

Observations of the chromosphere with Deslandres’s spectroheliograph started at Paris Observatory in 1893 and were followed by systematic observations at Meudon since 1908. The solar collection of Hα and CaII K images is probably the longest available worldwide, with associated products such as synoptic maps and tables. Since 2018, Meudon spectroheliograph is the only instrument producing data-cubes of full line profiles of CaII H, CaII K and Hα, for each pixel of the solar disk. Slices of the cubes provide monochromatic images. We summarize in this paper the capabilities of the successive generations of the instrument, and explore the potential of the collection and products for analysis of rare events, investigations of past solar activity and studies of long term variability.

Time Series Trend Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature over Kolkata and Surrounding Region

Study of long term variability of temperature and rainfall in the context of climate change is of much importance particularly in the region where rainfed agriculture is predominant. Long term trends of temperature and rainfall have been investigated over Kolkata, India, a tropical region using gridded monthly precipitation and temperature data obtained from Global Precipitation and Climate Centre (GPCC V7) with 0.5° X 0.5° resolution for the period 1901 to 2014. Precipitation concentration index, coefficient of variation, rainfall anomaly have been calculated and Palmer drought severity index data have been analyzed. Furthermore, Mann-Kendall test and sen’s slope estimator have been used to detect time series trend. Annual temperature and rainfall have been increased with a rate of 0.0082°C/ year and 0.03 mm/ year respectively. Statistically significant increasing trend has been observed for most of the months for temperature and rainfall. Winter and monsoon period shows highest and lowest inter-annual variability respectively. Rainfall with high precipitation concentration index (16-20) has been observed for the period 1951-1975 and 1976-2000. It has been observed that the number of years with dry conditions have been increased. However, the intensity of dryness is very near to zero. The information from this study will be helpful for the farmers to plan for resilient farming.

Climatological Study of Ozone over Saudi Arabia

In this work, analysis of the variability of total column ozone (TCO) over the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) has been conducted during the 1979–2020 period based on the ECMWF-ERA5 dataset. It is found that the highest values of TCO appear in the spring and winter months especially over north KSA, while the lowest values of TCO occur in the autumn months. The highest values of the coefficient of variation (COV) for TCO occur in winter and spring as they gradually decrease southward, while the lowest COV values appear in summer and autumn. The Mann–Kendall test indicates that the positive trend values are dominant for the annual and seasonal TCO values over KSA, and they gradually increase southward. The study of long-term variability of annual TCO at KSA stations shows negative trend values are the dominant behavior during the 1979–2004 period, while positive trend values are the dominant behavior during the 2004–2020 period. The Mann–Whitney test assessed the abrupt change of the annual TCO time series at 28 stations in KSA and confirmed that there is an abrupt change towards increasing values around 2000, 2005, and 2014. The climatological monthly mean of the ozone mass mixing ratio (OMR) is studied at three stations representing the north, middle, and south of KSA. The highest values of OMR are found in the layer between 20 and 4 hPa with the maximum in summer and early autumn, while the lowest values are found below 100 hPa.

ОЦІНКА БАГАТОРІЧНОЇ МІНЛИВОСТІ СЕРЕДНЬОГО РІЧНОГО СТОКУ ВОДИ РІЧОК БАСЕЙНУ ПРИП’ЯТІ В МЕЖАХ УКРАЇНИ ТА ЙОГО РОЗРАХУНКОВІ ХАРАКТЕРИСТИКИ У ФАЗИ ВОДНОСТІ

The aim of the study was to analyze the long-term variability of the average annual water runoff of the rivers of the Pripyat basin within Ukraine and to assess its calculated characteristics in the high-water and low-water phases of water content.The research of the cyclical nature of long-term fluctuations of river water flow, which contributes to the establishment of long-term dynamics of water content and potential (forecast) changes – is a topical issue of modern hydrological research. To describe the long-term variability of river water flow and its structure (cycles and phases of water content) the most effective method is stochastic, based on mathematical statistics, the theory of random variables and functions, probability theory. Autocorrelation analysis, various statistical criteria (homogeneity, series, series lengths), total and difference integral curves, probability theory, correlations, statistical estimation of probable errors, etc. were used to identify stochastic regularities of long-term variability. According to the results of the study of long-term variability of the average annual water runoff of the rivers of the Pripyat basin within Ukraine, it is established that cycles with periods of 29±2 years have high reliability and indicate stability of periods of low (10±2 years) and high water content. 17±2 years). According to the identified stochastic patterns, it is assumed that by 2025-26 it is necessary to expect the continuation of the low-water phase of water, then with the duration of 16-17 years the high-water phase will begin and from 2044-45 there will be low water again until 2055-56. According to the proposed regression equations between the average annual water discharge for a long-term period and their average values during the high-water and low-water phases of water content (with very significant approximation coefficients) and the obtained transition coefficients, it is possible to establish the calculated characteristics of the average annual flow of water of various availability in the high-water and low-water phases of water content, thereby giving their forecast estimates.

Estimating Suspended Sediment Concentrations from River Discharge Data for Reconstructing Gaps of Information of Long-Term Variability Studies

Suspended sediment rating-curves are low cost and reliable tools used all around the world to estimate river suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) based on either linear or non-linear regression with a second variable, such as the river discharge. The aim of this paper is to undertake an evaluation of four different suspended sediment rating-curves for three turbid large river tributaries flowing into the largest choked coastal lagoon of the world, a very turbid system. Statistical parameters such as Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE), percent of bias (PBIAS) and a standardized root-mean-square error (RMSE), referred to as RSR (RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio) were used to calibrate and validate the suspended sediment rating-curves. Results indicated that for all tributaries, the non-linear approach yielded the best correlations and proved to be an effective tool to estimate the SSC from river flow data. The tested curves show low bias and high accuracy for monthly resolution. However, for higher temporal resolution, and therefore variability, an ad hoc data acquisition to capture extreme rating-curve values is required to reliably fill gaps of information for both performing modeling approaches and setting monitoring efforts for long-term variability studies.

Drivers of artificial light at night variability in urban, rural and remote areas

Light pollution generated by the excessive use of artificial light at night is an environmental and ecological concern. Artificial light at night is diffused far from the sources, for long distances by scattering in the atmosphere (skyglow), thus affecting the night sky and the biodiversity of rural and natural areas. The characterization of the level and variability of light pollution has become an important issue for several disciplines.This study analyzes light pollution in urban, rural and remote sites in Tuscany (Italy) by monitoring night sky brightness. Night sky brightness (NSB) data collected from 2016 to 2019 were analyzed to assess annual and seasonal variability at each site and between sites. The relationship between night sky brightness and moonlight and weather conditions were also analyzed. Trend analysis was also performed to evaluate the degradation of the quality of the measurement with time due to dirty accumulation on the sensor shield.NSB in Tuscany during moonless nights ranged between 17.3 and 21.8 mpsas. The monthly cycle of moonlight is the main driver of night sky brightness variability in the remote site (21.8 mpsas on moonless nights and 18.5 mpsas on full moon nights) with a slight, but significant darkening effect during rainy conditions (22.3 mpsas). In urban sites, moonlight cycle is almost completely masked by weather conditions, as it can be seen from the analysis of seasonal variability, lunar monthly cycle analysis and weather condition analysis. Average night sky brightness on rainy days might reach 15.4 mpsas (approximately 436 times brighter than the natural background), an intensity that is even higher than average night sky brightness in full moonlight at the same site (16.6 mpsas). Light pollution can reach levels that might affect nocturnal species, and therefore the study of long term variability of light pollution is important for ecological studies.

Photometric, kinematic, and variability study in the young open cluster NGC 1960

ABSTRACT We present a comprehensive photometric analysis of a young open cluster NGC 1960 (= M36) along with the long-term variability study of this cluster. Based on the kinematic data of Gaia DR2, the membership probabilities of 3871 stars are ascertained in the cluster field among which 262 stars are found to be cluster members. Considering the kinematic and trigonometric measurements of the cluster members, we estimate a mean cluster parallax of 0.86 ± 0.05 mas and mean proper motions of μRA = −0.143 ± 0.008 mas yr−1 and μDec. = −3.395 ± 0.008 mas yr−1. We obtain basic parameters of the cluster such as E(B − V) = 0.24 ± 0.02 mag, log(Age/yr) = 7.44 ± 0.02, and d = 1.17 ± 0.06 kpc. The mass function slope in the cluster for the stars in the mass range of 0.72–7.32 M⊙ is found to be γ = −1.26 ± 0.19. We find that mass segregation is still taking place in the cluster which is yet to be dynamically relaxed. This work also presents first high-precision variability survey in the central 13 arcmin × 13 arcmin region of the cluster. The V-band photometric data accumulated on 43 nights over a period of more than 3 yr reveals 76 variable stars among which 72 are periodic variables. Among them, 59 are short period (P < 1 d) and 13 are long period (P > 1 d). The variable stars have V magnitudes ranging between 9.1 to 19.4 mag and periods between 41 min and 10.74 d. On the basis of their locations in the H–R diagram, periods, and characteristic light curves, 20 periodic variables belong to the cluster are classified as 2 δ-Scuti, 3 γ-Dor, 2 slowly pulsating B stars, 5 rotational variables, 2 non-pulsating B stars, and 6 as miscellaneous variables.

ИССЛЕДОВАНИЕ МНОГОЛЕТНЕЙ ИЗМЕНЧИВОСТИ ТЕМПЕРАТУРЫ И СОЛЕНОСТИ АЗОВСКОГО МОРЯ ЗА ПЕРИОД 1913–2018 ГГ.

One of the most demanded directions of oceanographic problems is the study of long-term variability and modeling of future climatic changes and also the possibility of obtaining continuous information on the thermohaline structure of the sea based on the joint use of remote sensing data and the results of assimilation modeling. In current paper, research, of the Sea of Azov for the period 1913–2018 was carried out. We used the data of contact measurements from the oceanographic data base of the SSC RAS, Atlas of climate change in large marine ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere, as well as data from the oceanographic data bank of the Marine Hydrophysical Institute RAS. Based on the analysis of the information, the calculation of the average monthly temperature and salinity was carried out, the periods of anomalous temperature were revealed, the periods of salinization and desalination of the Azov Sea also were noted. Data analysis made possibility to identify intrasecular climate fluctuations. Abnormally cold water temperature in winter was noted in the periods: 1926–1932, 1951– 1956, 2003–2012. In turn, the abnormally warm water temperature in winter, which was recorded in the periods: 1935–1939, 1958–1972, 1983–1992. by accompanied a cold spring-summer period. During the last five years the spring-summer period is characterized by an increased water temperature of the Azov Sea. The long-term variability of the salinity of the Sea of Azov significantly depends on the inflow of saltier waters of the Black Sea and river runoff. Due to these circumstances, the Sea of Azov is characterized by periods of salinization and desalination: the period of salinization was recorded from 1955 to 1973, a shorter period of desalination falls on 2003–2018. On average, the value of the ratio between the mean monthly salinity values during these periods is 2,2 times.

Sea ice modeling in the Sea of Azov for a study of long-term variability

This study deals with an attempt to use the NEMO modeling framework to investigate the long-term variability of the sea-ice fields in the Sea of Azov. A coupled ocean-ice model is used to perform a simulation by using an earlier developed configuration of cascading sea basins (Azov, Black, and Marmara). Various features of geographical location cause the formation of sea ice in the waters of the Sea of Azov and in the coastal area of the north-western Black Sea shelf. For a preliminary accuracy assessment, the simulation results are compared with the data based on satellite observations. The restricted amount of the data for the rather small area under study, as well as the features of the regional weather conditions, produce rather low accuracy of the available data products based on the satellite data. At the same time, the available data from coastal weather stations, as well as archived observations, produce a fairly adequate pattern of the simulated variability of the sea-ice conditions in the basin.

Deep XMM-Newton observations of the northern disc of M 31

Context. We carried out new observations of two fields in the star-forming northern ring of M 31 with XMM-Newton with each one of them consisting of two exposures of about 100 ks each. A previous XMM-Newton survey of the entire M 31 galaxy revealed extended diffuse X-ray emission in these regions. Aims. We study the population of X-ray sources in the northern disc of M 31 by compiling a complete list of X-ray sources down to a sensitivity limit of ∼7 × 1034 erg s−1 (0.5–2.0 keV) and improve the identification of the X-ray sources. The major objective of the observing programme was the study of the hot phase of the interstellar medium (ISM) in M 31. The analysis of the diffuse emission and the study of the ISM is presented in a separate paper. Methods. We analysed the spectral properties of all detected sources using hardness ratios and spectra if the statistics were high enough. We also checked for variability. In order to classify the sources detected in the new deep XMM-Newton observations, we cross-correlated the source list with the source catalogue of a new survey of the northern disc of M 31 carried out with the Chandra X-ray Observatory and the Hubble Space Telescope (Panchromatic Hubble Andromeda Treasury, PHAT) as well as with other existing catalogues. Results. We detected a total of 389 sources in the two fields of the northern disc of M 31 observed with XMM-Newton. We identified 43 foreground stars and candidates and 50 background sources. Based on a comparison with the results of the Chandra/PHAT survey, we classify 24 hard X-ray sources as new candidates for X-ray binaries. In total, we identified 34 X-ray binaries and candidates and 18 supernova remnants (SNRs) and candidates. We studied the spectral properties of the four brightest SNRs and confirmed five new X-ray SNRs. Three of the four SNRs, for which a spectral analysis was performed, show emission mainly below 2 keV, which is consistent with shocked ISM. The spectra of two of them also require an additional component with a higher temperature. The SNR [SPH11] 1535 has a harder spectrum and might suggest that there is a pulsar-wind nebula inside the SNR. For all SNRs in the observed fields, we measured the X-ray flux or calculated upper limits. We also carried out short-term and long-term variability studies of the X-ray sources and found five new sources showing clear variability. In addition, we studied the spectral properties of the transient source SWIFT J004420.1+413702, which shows significant variation in flux over a period of seven months (June 2015 to January 2016) and associated change in absorption. Based on the likely optical counterpart detected in the Chandra/PHAT survey, the source is classified as a low-mass X-ray binary.

In-depth study of long-term variability in the X-ray emission of the Be/X-ray binary system AX J0049.4−7323

AX J0049.4−7323 is a Be/X-ray binary in the Small Magellanic Cloud hosting a ~750 s pulsar which has been observed over the last ~17 years by several X-ray telescopes. Despite numerous observations, little is known about its X-ray behaviour. Therefore, we coherently analysed archival Swift, Chandra, XMM-Newton, RXTE, and INTEGRAL data, and we compared them with already published ASCA data, to study its X-ray long-term spectral and flux variability. AX J0049.4−7323 shows a high X-ray variability, spanning more than three orders of magnitudes, from L ≈ 1.6 × 1037 erg s−1 (0.3−8 keV, d = 62 kpc) down to L ≈ 8 × 1033 erg s−1. RXTE, Chandra, Swift, and ASCA observed, in addition to the expected enhancement of X-ray luminosity at periastron, flux variations by a factor of ~270 with peak luminosities of ≈2.1 × 1036 erg s−1 far from periastron. These properties are difficult to reconcile with the typical long-term variability of Be/XRBs, traditionally interpreted in terms of type I and type II outbursts. The study of AX J0049.4−7323 is complemented with a spectral analysis of Swift, Chandra, and XMM-Newton data which showed a softening trend when the emission becomes fainter, and an analysis of optical/UV data collected by the UVOT telescope on board Swift. In addition, we measured a secular spin-up rate of Ṗ = (−3.00 ± 0.12) × 10−3 s day−1, which suggests that the pulsar has not yet achieved its equilibrium period. Assuming spherical accretion, we estimated an upper limit for the magnetic field strength of the pulsar of ≈3 × 1012 G.

Long-lived coralline alga records multidecadal variability in Labrador Sea carbon isotopes

While the recent decline in the δ13C composition of oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) can be attributed to increasing anthropogenic CO2 emissions (13C Suess effect), the causes of natural variability in the δ13C of oceanic DIC (δ13CDIC) are far less understood. Unfortunately, instrumental oceanic DIC measurements are not available prior to the 1970s, prohibiting the observation and study of long-term variability in oceanic carbon isotope dynamics. Thus, in order to identify the main driving forces of changes in oceanic δ13CDIC, multicentury carbon isotope time series that extend from the present into the preindustrial period are required. Such time series may be extracted from the carbonate skeletons of long-lived marine organisms, which have been shown to be robust recorders of fluctuations and trends in oceanic δ13CDIC. In this study, we use an annually-banded coralline alga live-collected from the Labrador shelf to generate a 266-year time series of δ13CDIC changes in the Labrador Sea. Our results indicate that from the 1960s onwards, the rate of δ13CDIC decline in the Labrador Sea slightly exceeds the rate of δ13C decline in the atmosphere, providing support for the enhanced CO2 uptake ability of the Labrador Sea. In addition, the detrended algal δ13C time series displays multidecadal variability with typical Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) frequencies. We show that prior to the late 1980s, algal δ13C compositions significantly correlate with regional sea ice cover (SIC) variability, post-1850 instrumental, reconstructed AMO indices, and solar variability. We speculate that these low-frequency oscillations in δ13C reflect changes in marine primary productivity modulated by a mechanism involving solar changes, the AMO and SIC variability. Our algal carbon isotope time series suggests that while the anthropogenic Suess effect has influenced Labrador Sea δ13CDIC since the 1960s, its influence may have been obscured by the effects of natural climatic variability up until the late 1980s.

Study of Long-Term Variations in Hemispheric Asymmetry of Solar Activity

AbstractSunspot activity exhibits hemispheric asymmetry. We study the long-term variations in the hemispheric sunspot area from Kodaikanal white-light data during 1921 – 2011. The results on the presence or absence of double peak in an individual solar cycle, dominant hemispheric activity, and phase lag between the activities of northern and southern hemispheres, etc., are presented.

Study of long-term variability of Black Sea dynamics on the basis of circulation model assimilation of remote measurements

The Black Sea dynamics for two decades (1993–2012) is analyzed. The study is carried out in numerical simulation with the use of a circulation model and assimilation of satellite measurements of free surface elevations and sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The Black Sea circulation model has a spatial resolution of 4.8 km and 35 vertical levels, which thicken toward the surface. Arrays of ERA-Interim data are used for simulating the atmospheric forcing. A set of 3D arrays of the Black Sea hydrophysical fields is calculated on a regular grid with a time resolution of 24 h. The results are analyzed and compared with available contact measurements of temperature and salinity. This comparison shows a quite good quality of the resulted hydrophysical fields of the Black Sea.

Long-Term Variability of the Wind Field over the Indian Ocean Based on ERA-Interim Reanalysis

A detailed study of long-term variability of winds using 30 years of data from the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts global reanalysis (ERA-Interim) over the Indian Ocean has been carried out by partitioning the Indian Ocean into six zones based on local wind extrema. The trend of mean annual wind speed averaged over each zone shows a significant increase in the equatorial region, the Southern Ocean, and the southern part of the trade winds. This indicates that the Southern Ocean winds and the southeast trade winds are becoming stronger. However, the trend for the Bay of Bengal is negative, which might be caused by a weakening of the monsoon winds and northeast trade winds. Maximum interannual variability occurs in the Arabian Sea due to monsoon activity; a minimum is observed in the subtropical region because of the divergence of winds. Wind speed variations in all zones are weakly correlated with the Dipole Mode Index (DMI). However, the equatorial Indian Ocean, the southern part of the trade winds, and subtropical zones show a relatively strong positive correlation with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), indicating that the SOI has a zonal influence on wind speed in the Indian Ocean. Monsoon winds have a decreasing trend in the northern Indian Ocean, indicating monsoon weakening, and an increasing trend in the equatorial region because of enhancement of the westerlies. The negative trend observed during the non-monsoon period could be a result of weakening of the northeast trade winds over the past few decades. The mean flux of kinetic energy of wind (FKEW) reaches a minimum of about 100 W m−2 in the equatorial region and a maximum of about 1500 W m−2 in the Southern Ocean. The seasonal variability of FKEW is large, about 1600 W m−2, along the coast of Somalia in the northern Indian Ocean. The maximum monthly variability of the FKEW field averaged over each zone occurs during boreal summer. During the onset and withdrawal of monsoon, FKEW is as low as 50 W m−2. The Southern Ocean has a large variation of about 1280 W m−2 because of strong westerlies throughout the year.

Study of long-term variations in the Black Sea fields using an interdisciplinary physical and biogeochemical model

Using an interdisciplinary three-dimensional physical and biogeochemical model developed for the Black Sea, the long-term evolution of marine dynamics and ecosystem is investigated. The hydrophysical fields were calculated from a model of Black Sea circulation with assimilation of hydrographic survey and satellite measurement data from 1971 to 2001. The circulation model reproduces well processes of various scales in both space and time (particularly the seasonal course and interannual variability of main hydrophysical fields). The resulting flow fields are then used to calculate the long-term evolution of the components of the lower level of the food chain in the Black Sea ecosystem. The biogeochemical model used in the calculations is based on the nitrogen cycle and includes a parameterization of the main biological and chemical interactions and processes in the upper layer of the Black Sea. The numerical experiments indicated that the biogeochemical component of the model rather successfully reproduces the main features and evolution trends in the Black Sea ecosystem for the period under consideration: the growth in the phytoplankton biomass during eutrophication and changes in seasonal cycles of the main ecosystem components. Also, the hydrophysical processes were shown to be important for a reliable reproduction of long-term changes in the ecosystem.