Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events Research Articles

Planetary waves in the mesosphere lower thermosphere during stratospheric sudden warming: observations using a network of meteor radars from high to equatorial latitudes

In the present communication, characteristics of mean winds and planetary waves in the mesosphere lower thermosphere (MLT) region during sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events using observations from four meteor wind radars located at high, middle, low and equatorial latitudes are discussed. The response of the respective MLT regions to three SSW events that occurred during 2008–09, 2009–10 and 2011–12 winters are investigated. SSW signatures in the MLT zonal and meridional winds over the high latitude station Andenes ($$69.3^\circ\, \mathrm{N}, 16.0^\circ\, \mathrm{E}$$) are found to have significant differences from event to event. Mean wind reversals in the high latitude MLT are found to be preceding the corresponding signatures at $$60^\circ\, \mathrm{N}$$, 10 hPa by a few days. Zonal and meridional wind reversals extend to the MLT region over the mid latitude location Socorro ($$34.1^\circ\, \mathrm{N}, 106.9^\circ\, \mathrm{W}$$). However, MLT region over the low latitude station Thumba ($$8.5^\circ\, \mathrm{N}, 77^\circ\, \mathrm{E}$$) as well as the equatorial station Kototabang ($$0.2^\circ\, \mathrm{S}, 100.3^\circ\, \mathrm{E}$$) are found to be having a minimal response as far as mean winds are concerned. Apart from mean winds, planetary wave activity in the MLT region over the observational sites are examined, which show a systematic progression of planetary waves from high to equatorial latitudes during major as well as minor SSW events. To elucidate the origin of the observed planetary waves in the MLT region, the stratospheric winds are analyzed. Results suggest that the observed planetary waves have originated in the high-mid latitude middle atmospheric region. The present study provides observational evidence for secondary planetary wave generation in the high-mid latitude middle atmosphere and their equatorial propagation in the MLT as predicted by previous numerical modelling studies. Significance of the present study lies in employing a network of meteor radar observations to investigate the SSW signatures in the MLT region over high, middle, low and equatorial latitudes, simultaneously.

Vertical Structures of Temperature and Ozone Changes in the Stratosphere and Mesosphere during Stratospheric Sudden Warmings

We analyze the observations of temperature and ozone measured by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) during the period of 2005–2016, to investigate the vertical structures of temperature and ozone in the stratosphere and mesosphere during stratospheric sudden warming (SSW). We compute the height profiles of the correlation coefficients between 55 height levels of MLS temperature anomalies and compare them with the results of Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model simulations for three major SSWs. We also construct the temperature and ozone anomalies for the events to investigate the changes in the temperature and ozone distributions with height. There seems to always be a relatively weak but broad negative correlation between the temperature anomaly at 10 hPa and temperature anomalies over the entire mesosphere during the period before SSW events. However, this pattern gets stronger in the lower mesosphere but becomes a positive correlation in the upper mesosphere and lower thermosphere after the onset of SSW. We also found that the temperatures from the simulations show a similar trend to the observational results but with smaller variations and the transition height from negative to positive correlation in the mesosphere is much lower in the simulation than in the actual observations.

Multi‐instrumental Observations of the Quasi‐16‐Day Variations From the Lower Thermosphere to the Topside Ionosphere in the Low‐Latitude Eastern Asian Sector During the 2017 Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event

AbstractVariations of the low‐latitude ionosphere in the eastern Asian sector during the 2017 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) were studied with multi‐instrumental observations that correspond to different altitudes. Specifically, the variations of the topside ionosphere as high as over 830 km were investigated with data from the Swarm B satellite (~500 km), the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program F15 satellite (~830 km), and the Meteorological Operational satellite‐A (~830 km). The main results are as follows. (1) Simultaneous variations were detected in the ionospheric parameters from the E region to the topside ionosphere around the first peak warming of the 2017 SSW. (2) These variations exhibited similar quasi‐16‐day (Q16D; ~14.5‐day) periods, and these periods were most significant just before the first peak warming. (3) These simultaneous Q16D variations were not due to the solar extreme ultraviolet irradiance or geomagnetic activities but were probably driven from below, by planetary waves or semidiurnal lunar tides that enhanced during the SSW. (4) The Q16D variation of the topside ionospheric electron density at ~830 km was probably driven not only by the upward mapping electric field modulated in the E region dynamo but also by the electric field modulated in the F region dynamo.

Westward Acceleration of Tropical Stratopause Zonal Winds During Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events

AbstractThe tropical Mesosphere‐Lower Thermosphere‐Ionosphere system is found to show significant variabilities during Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) events. Recent studies have highlighted the possible role played by modified background wind conditions in communicating the SSW‐induced stratospheric perturbations to the Mesosphere‐Lower Thermosphere‐Ionosphere region. In the present study, changes in the background zonal winds at the tropical stratopause during major SSW events inferred from MERRA‐2 reanalysis data sets, rocket observations, and model simulations are reported for the first time. The tropical stratopause shows enhanced westward winds during the course of major SSW events. Rocketsonde observations from a low latitude station Thumba (8.5 ° N,76.9 ° E) also showed significant westward acceleration during three major SSW events. Further, Specified Dynamics version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model simulations for the 2008–2009 SSW replicate the observed features.

Response of Sporadic E Layer to Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events Observed at Low and Middle Latitudes

AbstractThis paper investigates the variations of middle‐ and low‐latitude sporadic E (Es) layers during 2011–2012 and 2012–2013 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events by using observations from six ionosondes in East Asia over China and Japan region. Observations of Es critical frequency (foEs) at all these ionosondes present obvious enhancements around the days of new and full moon during SSW periods. Wavelet spectra of foEs during two SSW events exhibit noticeable enhanced 14.5‐day modulation, which resembles the lunar semimonthly period. In addition, simultaneous wind measurements by meteor radar also show enhancement of 14.5‐day periodic oscillation after SSW onset. Tidal components extracted from meteor radar wind measurements in mesosphere and lower thermosphere region and from ionospheric F region critical frequency (foF2) are noticeably modulated by the lunar phase. These observational evidences reveal that the semimonthly lunar period of 14.5 days can be a contributing factor to variations of Es layer during SSW event.

Dependence of sudden stratospheric warming type‐transition on preceding North Atlantic Oscillation conditions

AbstractMost sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events initiate with their centers being displaced from the pole. Some retain their displaced form until termination but some split into two vortices during their course. Here, we show that existence of a transition during the course of the SSW life cycle can be attributable to the condition of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) preceding before onset: Positive NAO favors SSW of displacement type with no transition while negative NAO favors the displacement–split type. We show that, in positive NAO precondition, vertical flux of wave activity immediately before onset is mostly contributed only by wavenumber 1 component, which contrasts with the relatively stronger contribution of wavenumber 2 in negative NAO precondition. Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) simulation results are also consistent with the observational findings. Therefore, NAO can be regarded as a useful precursor for determining the type of forthcoming SSW events.

The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 1. Predictability of the Stratosphere

AbstractThe stratosphere has been identified as an important source of predictability for a range of processes on subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales. Knowledge about S2S predictability within the stratosphere is however still limited. This study evaluates to what extent predictability in the extratropical stratosphere exists in hindcasts of operational prediction systems in the S2S database. The stratosphere is found to exhibit extended predictability as compared to the troposphere. Prediction systems with higher stratospheric skill tend to also exhibit higher skill in the troposphere. The analysis also includes an assessment of the predictability for stratospheric events, including early and midwinter sudden stratospheric warming events, strong vortex events, and extreme heat flux events for the Northern Hemisphere and final warming events for both hemispheres. Strong vortex events and final warming events exhibit higher levels of predictability as compared to sudden stratospheric warming events. In general, skill is limited to the deterministic range of 1 to 2 weeks. High‐top prediction systems overall exhibit higher stratospheric prediction skill as compared to their low‐top counterparts, pointing to the important role of stratospheric representation in S2S prediction models.

Predicting the Downward and Surface Influence of the February 2018 and January 2019 Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Models.

Using the real‐time predictions from 11 models, this study analyzes the prediction of the downward propagation and surface impact of the 2018 and 2019 sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). These two SSWs differed both in their morphology types (2018: split; 2019: displacement followed by split) and magnitudes (the former being stronger). With a large sample size (>2,200) of multimodel ensemble forecasts, it is revealed that the strength of the SSW is more important than the vortex morphology in determining the magnitude of its downward impact, with strong SSWs more likely to propagate downward than weak SSWs. Therefore, based on the probabilistic forecasts, the observed strong SSW in February 2018 was more likely to have a downward and surface impact than the January 2019 SSW. The relationship between the 10‐hPa dominant wave number and the 100‐hPa polar cap height (or the Northern Annular Mode) is weak, implying that the dominant wave number might not be the primary factor determining the downward propagation of SSWs in the two analyzed cases. Hence, the high polar cap height (or negative Northern Annular Mode) response in the lower stratosphere and troposphere following the February 2018 SSW is mainly attributed to its strong intensity rather than the split morphology. Further, the 2‐m temperature anomaly pattern following the January 2019 SSW is not forecasted due to its weak downward propagation, whereas the 2‐m temperature in North Eurasia, Middle East, south China, and eastern United States could be forecasted for the downward propagating February 2018 SSW. However, regional rainfall anomalies are poorly forecasted (both in a deterministic and probabilistic sense) for both SSWs.

Oblique Gravity Wave Propagation During Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

AbstractGravity waves (GWs) are important for coupling the mesosphere to the lower atmosphere during sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Here, a minor SSW is internally generated in a simulation with the upper‐atmosphere configuration of the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model. At a horizontal resolution of 20 km the simulation uses no GW drag parameterizations but resolves large fractions of the GW spectrum explicitly, including orographic and nonorographic sources. Consistent with previous studies, the simulated zonal‐mean stratospheric warming is accompanied by zonal‐mean mesospheric cooling. During the course of the SSW the mesospheric GW momentum flux (GWMF) turns from mainly westward to mainly eastward. Waves of large phase speed (40–80 m s ) dominate the eastward GWMF during the peak phase of the warming. The GWMF is strongest along the polar night jet axis. Parameterizations of GWs usually assume straight upward propagation, but this assumption is often not satisfied. In the case studied here, a substantial amount of the GWMF is significantly displaced horizontally between the source region and the dissipation region, implying that the local impact of GWs on the mesosphere does not need to be above their local transmission through the stratosphere. The simulation produces significant vertically misaligned anomalies between the stratosphere and mesosphere. Observations by the Microwave Limb Sounder confirm the poleward tilt with height of the polar night jet and horizontal displacements between mesospheric cooling and stratospheric warming patterns. Thus, lateral GW propagation may be required to explain the middle‐atmosphere temperature evolution in SSW events with significant zonally asymmetric anomalies.

Thermospheric Composition O/N Response to an Altered Meridional Mean Circulation During Sudden Stratospheric Warmings Observed by GOLD

AbstractObservations from the recently launched Global‐Scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) instrument on the geostationary SES‐14 communications satellite reveal a substantial response of the mean state of the thermosphere to the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event in early January 2019. The observed O/N column density depletion of more than 10% starts at the onset of the SSW, maximizes at the time of the stratospheric wind reversal, and recovers toward the end of the SSW. A connection between SSW and thermospheric composition was previously predicted by model simulations but could not be observed before. The GOLD measurements support the scenario that enhanced global‐scale wave activity during SSWs causes an enhanced wave driving of the lower thermosphere zonal mean circulation that leads to a reduction in lower thermosphere atomic oxygen, which then propagates through molecular diffusion into the upper thermosphere.

ИССЛЕДОВАНИЕ ИЗМЕНЕНИЙ ДИНАМИКИ СТРАТОСФЕРЫ СЕВЕРНОГО ПОЛУШАРИЯ В XXI ВЕКЕ ПО РАСЧЕТАМ КЛИМАТИЧЕСКОЙ МОДЕЛИ ИВМ РАН

Simulations of 5th version of INM RAS (Institute of Numerical Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Science) climate model performed in the framework of CMIP6 project for the future climate under ssp2–4.5 (moderate) and ssp5–8.5 (business as usual or hard) scenarios of green house gases (GHG) increase are employed to analyze temperature, zonal mean wind, stratospheric polar vortex, planetary wave activity, meridional circulation, sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, and stratospheric circulation spring break-up date changes during boreal winters from 2015 to 2100. Comparison of averages over two periods of 2080–2100 and 2015–2035 revealed that temperature will decrease from 1° in the lower stratosphere to 4° in the upper stratosphere under moderate scenario and up to 11° under hard scenario. Cooling of stratosphere will be accompanied by strengthening of zonal circulation and planetary wave activity propagation in the middle – upper stratosphere that in turn leads to increase (stronger under hard scenario) of planetary wave with zonal wave number 1 amplitude (wavenumber 1). 13 major sudden stratospheric warming events and 16 very cold stratospheric winter seasons were revealed under hard scenario. Under both scenarios early spring break-up dates will be accompanied by stronger wavenumber 1 in comparison with winter seasons with later spring break-up dates. Strengthening of zonal mean meridional circulation is expected in the late XXI century

Tropospheric circulation response to sudden stratospheric warming observed in January 2013

Analysis of the dynamical regime changes in the stratosphere during different phases of the Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) that has been observed in January 2013 is presented. The different mechanisms of SSW influence on the tropospheric circulation through the stationary planetary waves (SPWs) reflection and/or increase in SPWs activity due to nonlinear interaction with the mean flow and their subsequent propagation into the troposphere are discussed. Three-dimensional wave activity flux and its divergence are determined using the UK Met Office data; the synoptic situation and its changes during the SSW events are analyzed. The wave activity penetrates downward from stratosphere into the troposphere and can affect weather processes during the SSW and right afterwards. It is this time that polar anticyclones can be formed at high latitudes, which quickly go southward along meridional directions and then deviate to the East at middle latitudes. Interestingly, the locations of polar anticyclone formations and subsequent displacements correspond to the regions of maximal horizontal wave activity fluxes connected with stratospheric processes. The results obtained allow us to suggest that accounting of stratospheric processes and their influence on the troposphere in winter season can improve the middle-range forecast of anticyclone formation and cold weather events at middle latitudes.

Comparison of stratospheric evolution during the major sudden stratospheric warming events in 2018 and 2019

Using Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) data in the northern hemisphere at the 10 hPa level, we compared the stratospheric evolution of temperature and geopotential height during two major sudden stratosphere warming events (SSWs) that occurred in the Arctic winter of 2018 and 2019. In the prewarming period, poleward temperature-enhanced regions were mainly located around 120°E with a displaced vortex and around 120°E and 60°W with splitting vortices. The evolution of geopotential height indicated that these temperature-enhanced regions were both on the western side of high-latitude anticyclones. In the postwarming period, the polar vortex turned from splitting to displacement in the 2018 SSW but from displacement to splitting in the 2019 SSW. Both transitions were observed over the Atlantic region, which may have been caused by anticyclones moving through the polar region. Our findings revealed that the evolution of the anticyclone is important during SSWs and is closely related to temperature-enhanced regions in the prewarming periods and to transitions of the polar vortices in postwarming periods.

The Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming Impact on Mid-Latitude Surface Weather

The possible relation of a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) with the mid-latitude surface weather conditions was investigated using data from the ERA-Interim and NCEP–NCAR reanalyzes. An important feature of the SSW event is the impact on lower altitudes, when temperature and wind anomalies descend downward into the high- and mid-latitude troposphere during the weeks or even month and influence the surface weather [1, 2]. Owing to known SSW impacts on the surface weather [2], we consider the possible relation of the SSW event in winter 2018 to cold weather anomaly in the Northern Ukraine and North-East China in February 2018.

Understanding of European Cold Extremes, Sudden Stratospheric Warming, and Siberian Snow Accumulation in the Winter of 2017/18

AbstractIt is unclear whether the Eurasian snow plays a role in the tropospheric driving of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW). The major SSW event of February 2018 is analyzed using reanalysis datasets. Characterized by predominant planetary waves of zonal wave 2, the SSW developed into a vortex split via wave–mean flow interaction. In the following two weeks, the downward migration of zonal-mean zonal wind anomalies was accompanied by a significant transition to the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation, leading to extensive cold extremes across Europe. Here, we demonstrate that anomalous Siberian snow accumulation could have played an important role in the 2018 SSW occurrence. In the 2017/18 winter, snow depths over Siberia were much higher than normal. A lead–lag correlation analysis shows that the positive fluctuating snow depth anomalies, leading to intensified “cold domes” over eastern Siberia (i.e., in a region where the climatological upward planetary waves maximize), precede enhanced wave-2 pulses of meridional heat fluxes (100 hPa) by 7–8 days. The snow–SSW linkage over 2003–19 is further investigated, and some common traits among three split events are found. These include a time lag of about one week between the maximum anomalies of snow depth and wave-2 pulses (100 hPa), high sea level pressure favored by anomalous snowpack, and a ridge anchoring over Siberia as precursor of the splits. The role of tropospheric ridges over Alaska and the Urals in the wave-2 enhancement and the role of Arctic sea ice loss in Siberian snow accumulation are also discussed.

A Statistical Analysis of the Propagating Quasi 16‐Day Waves at High Latitudes and Their Response to Sudden Stratospheric Warmings From 2005 to 2018

AbstractThis study presents an analysis of the long‐term variations of four propagating quasi 16‐day waves with Wavenumbers 1 and 2 and investigates their association with sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events. The study is based on the data obtained from Aura Microwave Limb Sounder satellite and Modern‐Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications‐2 reanalysis data in the period from 2004 to 2018. Strong quasi 16‐day waves are found in the winter hemisphere. The propagating waves with Wavenumber 1 are prominent in the Northern Hemisphere and eastward‐propagating waves are dominant in the Southern Hemisphere. By analyzing 14 SSW events, we found that the westward‐propagating quasi 16‐day waves increase rapidly around the onset dates of the major SSWs, which is likely associated with the quickly reduced mean eastward background winds. Based on analysis of geopotential height, Ertel potential vorticity and Eliassen‐Palm flux, the propagating quasi 16‐day waves with Wavenumbers 1 and 2, (mainly from westward‐propagating components) contribute to the formation of the vortex displaced and vortex split SSWs, respectively.

Average Characteristics of Low‐Latitude Interhemispheric and F Region Dynamo Currents Deduced From the Swarm Satellite Constellation

AbstractBased on magnetic field data from the Swarm satellite constellation advanced estimates of field‐aligned and radial currents at middle and low latitudes can be derived. Detailed results have been obtained for low‐latitude (14°–35° magnetic latitude) interhemispheric field‐aligned currents related to the solar quiet (Sq) current system. The continuous data set of five years allows resolving the dependences on local time, season, and longitude. We confirm the known current flow from the southern to the northern hemisphere around June solstice. Unexpected results are obtained for the months following December. Stratospheric sudden warming events are suggested as a reason for that. These phenomena are known to amplify lunar tides and atmospheric planetary waves. Furthermore, we investigated the mean characteristic of the meridional current systems connected to the wind‐driven F region dynamo above the magnetic equator. Typical features of radially downward currents around noon and upward currents in the evening sector could be confirmed. From a detailed analysis of the connected field‐aligned current distribution we deduced that the mean altitude of the dynamo region is higher in the evening than around noon. And it appears also at greater heights in the western hemisphere than in the eastern. Special current configurations are encountered in the longitude range containing the South Atlantic Anomaly. Here summer‐like conditions are prevailing through all seasons. This infers that the ionospheric conductivity is significantly enhanced in this region of weak magnetic field strength.

The 2018–2019 Arctic stratospheric polar vortex

The stratospheric polar vortex is a westerly circulation that forms over the winter pole around 10-50 km above the surface, which is known to influence mid-latitude weather patterns. During 2018-19, the Arctic polar vortex demonstrated an unusually large amount of variability, including a strong and persistent sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, a strong vortex event, and a dynamic final stratospheric warming (FSW). In this article we discuss the evolution of the vortex, placing it in the context of wider observed climatology, and comment on its apparent impacts on tropospheric weather patterns – notably, the lack of a surface climate response to the SSW of similar magnitude to the February-March 2018 “Beast from the East” cold-wave.

Temperature and pressure variability in mid-latitude low atmosphere and stratosphere-ionosphere coupling

This study presents the continuation of our previous analysis of variations of atmospheric and space weather parameters above Iberian Peninsula along two years near the 24th solar cycle maximum. In the previous paper (Morozova et al., 2017) we mainly discussed the first mode of principal component analysis of tropospheric and lower stratospheric temperature and pressure fields, which was shown to be correlated with lower stratospheric ozone and anti-correlated with cosmic ray flux. Now we extend the investigation to the second mode, which suggests a coupling between the stratosphere and the ionosphere.This second mode, located in the low and middle stratosphere (and explaining ~7% of temperature and ~3% of geopotential height variations), showed to be statistically significantly correlated with variations of the middle stratosphere ozone content and anti-correlated with variations of ionospheric total electron content. Similar co-variability of these stratospheric and ionospheric parameters was also obtained with the wavelet cross-coherence analysis.To investigate the role of atmospheric circulation dynamics and the causal nature of the found correlations, we applied the convergent cross mapping (CCM) analysis to our series. Strong evidence for the stratosphere-ionosphere coupling were obtained for the winter 2012–2013 that is characterized by the easterly QBO phase (quasi-biennial oscillations of the direction of the stratospheric zonal winds) and a strong SSW (sudden stratospheric warming event). Further analysis (for the three-year time interval 2012–2015) hint that SSWs events play main role in emphasizing the stratosphere-ionosphere coupling.

Parallel Comparison of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events in CESM1-WACCM and CESM2-WACCM

After the recent release of the historical runs by community Earth system model version 2–the whole atmosphere community climate model (CESM2-WACCM), the major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in this model and in its previous version (CESM1-WACCM) are compared based on a modern reanalysis (JRA55). Using the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) definition of SSWs and a threshold-based classification method that can describe the polar vortex morphology, SSWs in models and the reanalysis are further classified into two types, vortex displacement SSWs and vortex split SSWs. The general statistical characteristics of the two types of SSW events in the two model versions are evaluated. Both CESM1-WACCM and CESM2-WACCM models are shown to reproduce the SSW frequency successfully, although the circulations differences between vortex displacement SSWs and vortex split SSWs in CESM2-WACCM are smaller than in CESM1-WACCM. Composite polar temperature, geopotential height, wind, and eddy heat flux anomalies in both the two models and the reanalysis show similar evolutions. In addition, positive Pacific–North America and negative Western Pacific patterns in the troposphere preceding vortex displacement and split SSWs are observed in both observations and the models. The strong negative North Atlantic oscillation-like pattern, especially after vortex split SSW onset, is also identified in models. The near-surface cold Eurasia–warm North America pattern before both types of SSW onset, the warm Eurasia–cold North America pattern after displacement SSW onset, and the cold Eurasia–cold North America pattern after split SSW onset are consistently identified in JRA55, CESM1-WACCM, and CESM2-WACCM, although the temperature anomalies after the split SSW onset in CESM2-WACCM are somewhat underestimated.