Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And Their Role In Climate Research Articles

The contribution of ozone to future stratospheric temperature trends

AbstractThe projected recovery of ozone from the effects of ozone depleting substances this century will modulate the stratospheric cooling due to CO2, thereby affecting the detection and attribution of stratospheric temperature trends. Here the impact of future ozone changes on stratospheric temperatures is quantified for three representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using simulations from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). For models with interactive chemistry, ozone trends offset ~50% of the global annual mean upper stratospheric cooling due to CO2 for RCP4.5 and 20% for RCP8.5 between 2006–2015 and 2090–2099. For RCP2.6, ozone trends cause a net warming of the upper and lower stratosphere. The misspecification of ozone trends for RCP2.6/RCP4.5 in models that used the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC)/Stratosphere‐troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) Ozone Database causes anomalous warming (cooling) of the upper (lower) stratosphere compared to chemistry‐climate models. The dependence of ozone chemistry on greenhouse gas concentrations should therefore be better represented in CMIP6.

Maximum likelihood representation of MIPAS profiles

Abstract. In order to avoid problems connected with the content of a priori information in volume mixing ratio vertical profiles measured with the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS), a user-friendly representation of the data has been developed which will be made available in addition to the regular data product. In this representation, the data will be provided on a fixed pressure grid coarse enough to allow a virtually unconstrained retrieval. To avoid data interpolation, the grid is chosen to be a subset of the pressure grids used by the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative and the Data Initiative within the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) project as well as the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change climatologies and model calculations. For representation, the profiles have been transformed to boxcar base functions, which means that volume mixing ratios are constant within a layer. This representation is thought to be more adequate for comparison with model data. While this method is applicable also to vertical profiles of other species, the method is discussed using ozone as an example.

Intercomparison of vertically resolved merged satellite ozone data sets: interannual variability and long-term trends

Abstract. In the framework of the SI2N (SPARC (Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate)/IO3C (International Ozone Commission)/IGACO-O3 (Integrated Global Atmospheric Chemistry Observations – Ozone)/NDACC (Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change)) initiative, several long-term vertically resolved merged ozone data sets produced from satellite measurements have been analysed and compared. This paper presents an overview of the methods, assumptions, and challenges involved in constructing such merged data sets, as well as the first thorough intercomparison of seven new long-term satellite data sets. The analysis focuses on the representation of the annual cycle, interannual variability, and long-term trends for the period 1984–2011, which is common to all data sets. Overall, the best agreement amongst data sets is seen in the mid-latitude lower and middle stratosphere, with larger differences in the equatorial lower stratosphere and the upper stratosphere globally. In most cases, differences in the choice of underlying instrument records that were merged produced larger differences between data sets than the use of different merging techniques. Long-term ozone trends were calculated for the period 1984–2011 using a piecewise linear regression with a change in trend prescribed at the end of 1997. For the 1984–1997 period, trends tend to be most similar between data sets (with largest negative trends ranging from −4 to −8% decade−1 in the mid-latitude upper stratosphere), in large part due to the fact that most data sets are predominantly (or only) based on the SAGE-II record. Trends in the middle and lower stratosphere are much smaller, and, particularly for the lower stratosphere, large uncertainties remain. For the later period (1998–2011), trends vary to a greater extent, ranging from approximately −1 to +5% decade−1 in the upper stratosphere. Again, middle and lower stratospheric trends are smaller and for most data sets not significantly different from zero. Overall, however, there is a clear shift from mostly negative to mostly positive trends between the two periods over much of the profile.

Stratospheric lifetime ratio of CFC-11 and CFC-12 from satellite and model climatologies

Abstract. Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) play a key role in stratospheric ozone loss and are strong infrared absorbers that contribute to global warming. The stratospheric lifetimes of CFCs are a measure of their stratospheric loss rates that are needed to determine global warming and ozone depletion potentials. We applied the tracer–tracer correlation approach to zonal mean climatologies from satellite measurements and model data to assess the lifetimes of CFCl3 (CFC-11) and CF2Cl2 (CFC-12). We present estimates of the CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio and the absolute lifetime of CFC-12, based on a reference lifetime of 52 years for CFC-11. We analyzed climatologies from three satellite missions, the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), the HIgh Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS), and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). We found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.47±0.08 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 112(96–133) years for ACE-FTS, a ratio of 0.46±0.07 and a lifetime of 113(97–134) years for HIRDLS, and a ratio of 0.46±0.08 and a lifetime of 114(98–136) years for MIPAS. The error-weighted, combined CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio is 0.46±0.04 and the CFC-12 lifetime estimate is 113(103–124) years. These results agree with the recent Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) reassessment, which recommends lifetimes of 52(43–67) years and 102(88–122) years, respectively. Having smaller uncertainties than the results from other recent studies, our estimates can help to better constrain CFC-11 and CFC-12 lifetime recommendations in future scientific studies and assessments. Furthermore, the satellite observations were used to validate first simulation results from a new coupled model system, which integrates a Lagrangian chemistry transport model into a climate model. For the coupled model we found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.48±0.07 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 110(95–129) years, based on a 10-year perpetual run. Closely reproducing the satellite observations, the new model system will likely become a useful tool to assess the impact of advective transport, mixing, and photochemistry as well as climatological variability on the stratospheric lifetimes of long-lived tracers.

The SPARC Data Initiative: Comparison of upper troposphere/lower stratosphere ozone climatologies from limb‐viewing instruments and the nadir‐viewing Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer

AbstractWe present the first comprehensive intercomparison of currently available satellite ozone climatologies in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) (300–70 hPa) as part of the Stratosphere‐troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) Data Initiative. The Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) instrument is the only nadir‐viewing instrument in this initiative, as well as the only instrument with a focus on tropospheric composition. We apply the TES observational operator to ozone climatologies from the more highly vertically resolved limb‐viewing instruments. This minimizes the impact of differences in vertical resolution among the instruments and allows identification of systematic differences in the large‐scale structure and variability of UTLS ozone. We find that the climatologies from most of the limb‐viewing instruments show positive differences (ranging from 5 to 75%) with respect to TES in the tropical UTLS, and comparison to a “zonal mean” ozonesonde climatology indicates that these differences likely represent a positive bias for p ≤ 100 hPa. In the extratropics, there is good agreement among the climatologies regarding the timing and magnitude of the ozone seasonal cycle (differences in the peak‐to‐peak amplitude of <15%) when the TES observational operator is applied, as well as very consistent midlatitude interannual variability. The discrepancies in ozone temporal variability are larger in the tropics, with differences between the data sets of up to 55% in the seasonal cycle amplitude. However, the differences among the climatologies are everywhere much smaller than the range produced by current chemistry‐climate models, indicating that the multiple‐instrument ensemble is useful for quantitatively evaluating these models.

Improvements in total column ozone in GEOSCCM and comparisons with a new ozone‐depleting substances scenario

AbstractThe evolution of ozone is examined in the latest version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry‐Climate Model (GEOSCCM) using old and new ozone‐depleting substances (ODS) scenarios. This version of GEOSCCM includes a representation of the quasi‐biennial oscillation, a more realistic implementation of ozone chemistry at high solar zenith angles, an improved air/sea roughness parameterization, and an extra 5 parts per trillion of CH3Br to account for brominated very short‐lived substances. Together these additions improve the representation of ozone compared to observations. This improved version of GEOSCCM was used to simulate the ozone evolution for the A1 2010 and the new Stratosphere‐troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) 2013 ODS scenario derived using the SPARC Lifetimes Report 2013. This new ODS scenario results in a maximum Cltot increase of 65 parts per trillion by volume (pptv), decreasing slightly to 60 pptv by 2100. Approximately 72% of the increase is due to the longer lifetime of CFC‐11. The quasi‐global (60°S–60°N) total column ozone difference is relatively small and less than 1 Dobson unit on average and consistent with the 3–4% larger 2050–2080 average Cly in the new SPARC 2013 scenario. Over high latitudes, this small change in Cly compared to the relatively large natural variability makes it not possible to discern a significant impact on ozone in the second half of the 21st century in a single set of simulations.