Improvements in total column ozone in GEOSCCM and comparisons with a new ozone‐depleting substances scenario

Abstract

AbstractThe evolution of ozone is examined in the latest version of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry‐Climate Model (GEOSCCM) using old and new ozone‐depleting substances (ODS) scenarios. This version of GEOSCCM includes a representation of the quasi‐biennial oscillation, a more realistic implementation of ozone chemistry at high solar zenith angles, an improved air/sea roughness parameterization, and an extra 5 parts per trillion of CH3Br to account for brominated very short‐lived substances. Together these additions improve the representation of ozone compared to observations. This improved version of GEOSCCM was used to simulate the ozone evolution for the A1 2010 and the new Stratosphere‐troposphere Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC) 2013 ODS scenario derived using the SPARC Lifetimes Report 2013. This new ODS scenario results in a maximum Cltot increase of 65 parts per trillion by volume (pptv), decreasing slightly to 60 pptv by 2100. Approximately 72% of the increase is due to the longer lifetime of CFC‐11. The quasi‐global (60°S–60°N) total column ozone difference is relatively small and less than 1 Dobson unit on average and consistent with the 3–4% larger 2050–2080 average Cly in the new SPARC 2013 scenario. Over high latitudes, this small change in Cly compared to the relatively large natural variability makes it not possible to discern a significant impact on ozone in the second half of the 21st century in a single set of simulations.