Winter Stratosphere Research Articles

Variations of Planetary Wave Activity in the Lower Stratosphere in February as a Predictor of Ozone Depletion in the Arctic in March

This study is dedicated to the investigation of the relationship between the wave activity in February and temperature variations in the Arctic lower stratosphere in March. To study this relationship, the correlation coefficients (CCs) between the minimum temperature of the Arctic lower stratosphere in March (Tmin) and the amplitude of the planetary wave with zonal number 1 (PW1) in February were calculated. Tmin determines the conditions for the formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) following the chemical destruction of the ozone layer. The NCEP and ERA5 reanalysis data and the modern and future climate simulations of the Earth system models INM CM5 and SOCOLv4 were employed. It is shown that the maximum significant CC value between Tmin at 70 hPa in the polar region in March and the amplitude of the PW1 in February in the reanalysis data in the lower stratosphere is 0.67 at the pressure level of 200 hPa. The CCs calculated using the model data are characterized by maximum values of ~0.5, also near the same pressure level. Thus, it is demonstrated that the change in the planetary wave activity in the lower extratropical stratosphere in February can be one of the predictors of the Tmin. For further analysis of the dynamic structure in the lower stratosphere, composites of 10 seasons with the lowest and highest Tmin of the Arctic lower stratosphere in March were assembled. For these composites, differences in the vertical distribution and total ozone content, surface temperature, and residual meridional circulation (RMC) were considered, and features of the spatial distribution of wave activity fluxes were investigated. The obtained results may be useful for the development of forecasting of the Arctic winter stratosphere circulation, especially for the late winter season, when substantial ozone depletion occurs in some years.

Long-term geomagnetic activities and stratospheric winter temperature

In this research, impact of long term solar forcing on stratospheric winter temperature is checked. The 11- year sunspot activity and geomagnetic indices (AE, Kp, Dst) are used as an indicator for solar forcing, as geomagnetic activity indices show good correlation with solar variability. To understand the impact of solar forcing through high latitude, stratospheric winter (November to March) time North Polar Region (60N–90N) temperature anomalies are considered. The findings showed that temperature changes in the stratosphere are significantly correlated with solar activity, as evidenced by a significant positive correlation between the 11-year moving mean of stratospheric (10 hPa) temperature anomalies and sunspot number. Approximately from 1970 to 2000, the North Polar Region saw positive anomalous stratospheric winter temperatures. During the same time, the geomagnetic activity also showed a substantial increase. The year-to-year correlation between stratospheric pole temperature and geomagnetic activity is significant (about 0.5). The Empirical Mode Decomposition analysis reveals a highly significant correlation (around 0.9) between the long-term component of stratospheric winter temperature (IMF-4) and the long-term component of geomagnetic activity (IMF-3 and IMF-4). One of the reasons for the increase in lower stratospheric temperature is an increase in ozone concentration during the same period when geomagnetic activity is higher. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and correlation analysis of stratospheric winter temperature with large-scale circulation patterns are also carried out. The spatial correlation is checked for stratospheric winter temperature at North Pole and lower atmospheric levels (250 hPa and 850 hPa) followed by pre-monsoon and monsoon season. This study includes statistical analysis, however, also highlights the necessity of in-depth dynamical analysis to improve our understanding of how solar activity impacts Earth's atmospheric layers, which may be helpful in predicting the weather and climate.

Impact of Polar Vortex Modes on Winter Weather Patterns in the Northern Hemisphere

This study is an additional investigation of stratosphere–troposphere coupling based on the recent stratospheric winter descriptions in five distinct modes: January, February, Double, Dynamical, and Dadiative. These modes, established in a previous study, categorize the main stratospheric winter typologies modulated by the timing of important sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) and final stratospheric warmings (FSWs). The novelty of this research is to investigate the Northern Annular Mode, mean sea level pressure (MSLP) anomalies in the Ural and Aleutian regions, and the decomposition of Eliassen–Palm flux into wavenumbers 1 and 2 within each mode. The results show that the January and Double modes exhibit similar pre-warming surface signals, characterized by Ural blocking and Aleutian trough events preceding weak polar vortex events. The January mode displays a positive MSLP anomaly of +395 hPa (−191 hPa) in the Ural (Aleutian) region in December, while the Double mode shows +311 hPa (−89 hPa) in November. These modes are primarily wave-1 driven, generating tropospheric responses via negative Arctic Oscillation patterns. Conversely, the February and Dynamical modes show opposite signals, with Aleutian blocking and Ural trough events preceding strong polar vortex events. In December, the February mode exhibits MSLP anomalies of +119 hPa (Aleutian) and −180 hPa (Ural), while the Dynamical mode shows +77 hPa and −184 hPa, respectively. These modes, along with important SSWs in February and dynamical FSWs, are driven by both wave-1 and wave-2 and do not significantly impact the troposphere. The Radiative mode’s occurrence is strongly related to the Aleutian blocking presence. These findings confirm that SSW timing is influenced by specific dynamical forcing related to surface precursors and underscore its importance in subsequent tropospheric responses. This study establishes a connection between early winter tropospheric conditions and upcoming stratospheric states, potentially improving seasonal forecasts in the northern hemisphere.

Large Ozone Hole in 2023 and the Hunga Tonga Volcanic Eruption

AbstractPolar stratospheric chemistry is highly sensitive to changes in water vapor content and temperature. We identified an unusual behavior of water vapor and temperature in the southern polar winter stratosphere in 2023. The relationships between the Hunga-Tonga eruption injection of water vapor (detected in the tropics) and its transport to SH high latitudes, temperature changes and ozone anomalies at southern high latitudes are discussed, as well as the roles of zonal wind and the meridional flux of zonal mean zonal momentum. These parameters exhibit a consistent pattern in anomalous year 2023. In the winter of 2023 in the Southern Hemisphere, an unexpected decrease in ozone levels and the emergence of an excessive ozone hole were observed. This event marked one of the deepest Antarctic ozone holes with the largest area since 2011. This appears to be associated with the Hunga Tonga eruption anomalous water vapor injection. This study highlights importance of water vapor for evolution of the Antarctic stratosphere.

Insights on Lateral Gravity Wave Propagation in the Extratropical Stratosphere From 44 Years of ERA5 Data

AbstractThe study presents (a) a 44‐year wintertime climatology of resolved gravity wave (GW) fluxes and forcing in the extratropical stratosphere using ERA5, and (b) their composite evolution around gradual (final warming) and abrupt (sudden warming) transitions in the wintertime circulation, focusing on lateral fluxes. The transformed Eulerian mean equations are leveraged to provide a glimpse of the importance of GW lateral propagation (i.e., horizontal propagation) toward driving the wintertime stratospheric circulation by analyzing the relative contribution of the vertical versus meridional flux dissipation. The relative contribution from lateral propagation is found to be notable, especially in the Austral winter stratosphere where lateral (vertical) momentum flux convergence provides a peak climatological forcing of up to −0.5 (−3.5) m/s/day around 60°S at 40–45 km altitude. Prominent lateral propagation in the wintertime midlatitudes also contributes to the formation of belts of GW activity in both hemispheres.

Influence of Natural Tropical Oscillations on Ozone Content and Meridional Circulation in the Boreal Winter Stratosphere

The dependence of ozone content in the polar stratosphere upon different phases of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the zonal wind and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during winter was studied. The monthly (from November to January) mean residual meridional circulation (RMC) was calculated for four different combinations of the main phases of ENSO and QBO using MERRA2 reanalysis data. It has been demonstrated that the QBO phase manifests itself in different vertical distributions of ozone in the equatorial stratosphere, as well as in strengthening/weakening of the secondary meridional circulation in the tropics. The enhancement of the RMC from the tropical to the polar stratosphere is stronger at altitudes where ozone is higher in the tropics under El Niño conditions. The RMC modification and intensification are observed from ozone-depleted areas under La Niña conditions. A “cumulative” effect is observed by February under La Niña conditions and the easterly QBO, which is expressed in the lowest ozone content in the polar stratosphere. The numerical experiments carried out using the Middle and Upper Atmosphere Model (MUAM) confirmed tendencies in changes in the meridional transport detected from the reanalysis data for different combinations of QBO and ENSO.

Influence of autumn Kara Sea ice on the subsequent winter minimum temperature over the Northeast China

AbstractMany previous studies have examined the influence of Arctic sea ice on the weather/climate of the Northern Hemisphere. However, the precursor signals of Arctic sea ice regarding East Asian winter low temperatures, which are important for climate prediction, have received little attention. This study identified an out‐of‐phase relationship between the autumn sea ice area of the Kara Sea (SICK) and subsequent winter minimum temperature in Northeast China (NEC) during 1979–2019, that is, diminished SICK facilitates cooling anomalies at NEC. Further results showed that the Arctic Oscillation (AO) acts as a bridge in the linkage between the autumn SICK and minimum temperature in NEC. Diminished autumn SICK leads to a weakened polar vortex in both the troposphere and the stratosphere in the subsequent winter through vertical propagation of planetary waves, contributing to a negative phase of the AO. Accordingly, the SICK is followed by anomalous Rossby wave train that originates from Mediterranean Sea and propagates eastward to Northeast Asia. Thus, the SICK has substantially influences on the Mongolia cyclone and minimum temperature in NEC by modulation of the AO. Moreover, the shrinking SICK could lead to the upper‐level decelerated westerly anomalies at East Asia through altering the equator‐to‐pole temperature gradient and induce negative minimum temperature anomalies at NEC. The results of this study have importance regarding the prediction of low temperature anomalies over NEC.

Satellite Observations of the Influence of Energetic Electron Precipitation on the Mesosphere and Stratosphere in the Northern Hemisphere

AbstractThe Earth’s atmosphere is influenced by energetic electrons coming from the magnetosphere. This energetic electron precipitation (EEP) is energized by the solar wind and directly affects in the high‐latitude mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT). EEP forms odd nitrogen (NOx) and hydrogen oxides (HOx) which destroy ozone. During winter EEP‐NOx descends to the stratosphere, establishing the indirect EEP effect. Several studies have found that EEP is related to changes in temperature and winds in the northern winter stratosphere. One of the most prominent effects of EEP is the influence on the northern polar vortex, a westerly wind system surrounding the winter pole in the middle atmosphere. Most studies of the EEP effect on dynamical features of the middle atmosphere have relied on either model simulations or reanalysis datasets which are mainly limited to stratospheric heights. We study here EEP effects on chemical and dynamical properties of the stratosphere and mesosphere in the northern hemisphere by using EOS Aura satellite’s measurements of atmospheric properties and POES satellites' measurements of precipitating electrons. We confirm earlier results showing that EEP decreases ozone and affects the temperature in the polar middle atmosphere and strengthens the stratospheric polar vortex. We show that EEP weakens the mesospheric polar vortex in late winter. This effect on polar vortex is partly due to changes in propagation and convergence of planetary waves. Accordingly, the EEP effect on the northern polar vortex depends on planetary waves not only in the stratosphere, as found in earlier studies, but also in the mesosphere.

A CMIP6 Analysis of Past and Future Arctic Winter Stratospheric Temperature Trends

AbstractReanalysis data reveal a weak warming trend in the midwinter Arctic stratosphere, contrary to the cooling expectation based on the greenhouse gas effect. This trend is also influenced by the occurrence of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs). Using Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) we investigate temperature trends over a similar timescale as ERA5 and find that CMIP6 models can replicate the positive midwinter temperature trend in the mid‐lower stratosphere. However, when considering the multi‐model mean, this positive temperature trend is much weaker than ERA5. Extrapolating to the future, we find that the SSW‐driven positive temperature trend will likely not continue in the future based on the SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 climate scenarios. Instead, the models project there will be widespread cooling throughout the Arctic winter stratosphere regardless of the occurrence of SSWs. Using a subsample of CMIP6 models which replicate the seasonality of the Arctic winter stratosphere most similarly to that of ERA5, we also find that the zonal wind strength during SSWs correlates the most with the temperature trends found there. However, trends in the zonal wind strength alone cannot account for the observed temperature trends among the CMIP6 models.

Linkage of the preceding winter mid-latitude Eurasian atmospheric circulation with the spring northern East Asian snow cover

Within the current study, the linkage between the preceding wintertime atmospheric circulation around the mid-latitude Eurasia (MLE) and spring Asian snow cover is detected. The result suggests that following the primary atmospheric mode over the MLE during winter, the positive snow cover anomalies tend to appear over northern East Asia (EA) in the ensuing spring. This primary atmospheric mode featured by the negative–positive–negative anomalous geopotential height centers in the middle level around the MLE is conducive to the zonal wavenumber-1 component (ZWN-1) propagating upward into the stratosphere in winter. The poleward heat transportation anomalies connected with the strengthened upward wave activity contribute to the significant anomalous stratospheric warming and thereby a weaker than normal lower stratospheric polar vortex during spring. This abnormal lower stratospheric polar vortex then propagates downward and generates a significant tropospheric cyclonic anomaly around Lake Baikal, favoring the anomalous cooling and more snowfall over the region. The above condition finally results in the enhanced spring snow cover around northern EA. Moreover, the observed connection shown above can be reproduced in the historical simulation (1979–2014) of some coupled models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The result also implies that the time series corresponding to this primary atmospheric mode exhibit a potential to predict the spring snow cover over northern EA.

Impact of a strong volcanic eruption on the summer middle atmosphere in UA-ICON simulations

Abstract. Explosive volcanic eruptions emitting large amounts of sulfur can alter the temperature of the lower stratosphere and change the circulation of the middle atmosphere. The dynamical response of the stratosphere to strong volcanic eruptions has been the subject of numerous studies. The impact of volcanic eruptions on the mesosphere is less well understood because of a lack of large eruptions in the satellite era and only sparse observations before that period. Nevertheless, some measurements indicated an increase in mesospheric mid-latitude temperatures after the 1991 Pinatubo eruption. The aim of this study is to uncover potential dynamical mechanisms that may lead to such a mesospheric temperature response. We use the Upper-Atmospheric ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (UA-ICON) model to simulate the atmospheric response to an idealized strong volcanic injection of 20 Tg S into the stratosphere (about twice as much as the eminent 1991 Pinatubo eruption). Two experiments with differently parameterized effects of sub-grid-scale orography are compared to test the impact of different atmospheric background states. The simulations show a significant warming of the polar summer mesopause of up to 15–21 K in the first November after the eruption. We argue that this is mainly due to intrahemispheric dynamical coupling in the summer hemisphere and is potentially enhanced by interhemispheric coupling with the winter stratosphere. This study focuses on the first austral summer after the eruption because mesospheric temperature anomalies are especially relevant for the properties of noctilucent clouds, whose season peaks around January in the Southern Hemisphere.

Direct Observational Evidence of Altered Mesosphere Lower Thermosphere Mean Circulation From a Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming

AbstractSudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are large‐scale phenomena characterized by dramatic dynamic disruptions in the stratospheric winter polar regions. Previous studies, especially those employing whole atmosphere models, indicate that SSWs have strong impacts on the circulation of the mesosphere lower thermosphere (MLT) and drive a reversal in the mean meridional circulation (MMC) near 90–125 km altitude. However, the robustness of these effects and the roles of SSW‐induced changes in global‐scale wave activity to drive the reversal have been difficult to observe simultaneously. This work employs horizontal lower thermospheric (∼93–106 km altitude) winds near 10°S‐40°N latitude from the Michelson Interferometer for Global High‐resolution Thermospheric Imaging instrument onboard the Ionospheric Connection Explorer (ICON) to present observational evidence of a prominent MLT MMC reversal associated with the January 2021 major SSW event and to demonstrate connections to semidiurnal tidal activity and possible associations with a ∼3‐day ultra‐fast Kevin wave.

On the Different Quasi-2-Day Wave Behaviors during Sudden Stratospheric Warming Periods

The temporal variations in the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in the winter stratosphere always coincide with the quasi-2-day wave (Q2DW) in the summer mesosphere, and the impact of SSW on Q2DW is interesting but still a mystery. Major SSWs occurred in both 2006 and 2009, while the Q2DW activity was quite different. The Second Modern Era-Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-2) reanalysis dataset was used to comparatively analyze these two major SSW events and elucidate the reasons for the different Q2DW behaviors. We noticed that the summer easterly jet shows a large interannual variability. We conclude that the summer mesospheric Q2DWs are modulated by the winter SSW, whereas the modulation process is also affected by the interannual variability of the summer easterly flow itself. The effects of the SSW on the Q2DWs may differ from year to year due to the variability of the summer easterly flow itself, resulting in different anomalous Q2DW behavior. This conclusion may also be true for the interannual variability of other phenomena during the SSW period.

Compensation between Resolved Wave Forcing and Parameterized Orographic Gravity Wave Drag in the Northern Hemisphere Winter Stratosphere Revealed in NCEP CFS Reanalysis Data

Abstract Compensation between the resolved wave (RW) forcing and the parameterized orographic gravity wave drag (OGWD) accompanying barotropic/baroclinic (BT/BC) instability in the realistic atmosphere is investigated using Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data in the Northern Hemisphere winter stratosphere. When sufficiently narrow and/or strong negative OGWD drives instability, RWs are generated in situ, providing positive Eliassen–Palm flux divergence that compensates for the parameterized OGWD enhancement; this is consistent with the findings of previous studies based on the idealized general circulation models. However, dependence of the compensation rate on RW forcing differs from the nearly complete compensation in the previous studies, implying that an additional mechanism operates for the compensation: the refractive-index modification by BT/BC instability. The negative meridional gradient of the quasigeostrophic potential vorticity leads to the negative refractive index squared for RWs with phase speeds less than the zonal-mean zonal wind. This prevents RWs from entering the destabilized areas, resulting in the divergence of Eliassen–Palm fluxes that cancels out the parameterized OGWD perturbation. Although both mechanisms act simultaneously, the refractive-index modification plays an important role in the compensation processes in the stratosphere where RWs are dominated by the planetary-scale waves.

Influence of observed seasonally varying composition on Titan’s stratospheric circulation

Titan’s atmosphere exhibits variations in composition as it progresses through its seasons. Past observations have shown a substantial enrichment in short-lived molecules in the winter stratosphere above 100 km. Seasonal variations in Titan’s stratospheric dynamics also lead to a transient detached haze layer (DHL) above 400 km. The seasonal variations in aerosol opacity and molecular abundance lead to varying radiative heating rates in both the shortwave and longwave spectral regions. In this paper, we report on the effects of a new dataset for aerosol opacity and trace gas abundance derived from Cassini observations on simulations of Titan’s stratospheric dynamics with the Titan Atmospheric Model (TAM). We find that including seasonally varying radiative species (SVRS) decreases the autumn and winter polar stratopause temperature by up to 10 K poleward of 60°. We also find a similar increased seasonality in the zonal winds with the early autumn polar jet strengthening by 60 m s−1, while the mid winter jet is unaffected. While including the observationally derived SVRS dataset increases the strength of the seasonal variations of the polar jet, it does not substantially affect the timing of the onset or dissipation of the jet or other seasonal phenomena.

Features of Winter Stratosphere Small-Scale Disturbance during Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

We analyzed the characteristics of small-scale wave disturbances emerging during the evolution and transformation of the jet stream (JS) in the winter stratosphere and the lower mesosphere of the northern hemisphere, including the periods of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events. Continuous generation of small-scale wave disturbances is shown to occur over quiet geomagnetic winter periods in the region of a steady jet stream in the strato–mesosphere. We studied spatial spectra for the vertical velocity variations, determined by the parameters of emerging wave disturbances. The greatest intensities of disturbances are recorded in the regions corresponding to the high velocities of the JS (from 100 m/s and higher). In the northern hemisphere, those latitudes encompass ~40–60° N. When a steady jet stream forms, the horizontal length and periods of the most intensive wavelike disturbances are shown to vary within 300–1000 km and 50–150 min correspondingly (which match the characteristic scales of internal gravity waves, or IGWs). During the SSW prewarming stage, the JS transforms substantially. Over the same periods, a disturbance intensification is recorded, as well as the emergence of larger-scale disturbances with 3000–5000-km horizontal wavelengths, and even higher. After the SSW peak and during the stratosphere circulation recovery, the velocity in the JS substantially decreases and an essential reduction in wave-disturbance generation occurs. There are decreases in the average amplitude values (by factors of 1.8–6.7). The strongest amplitude drop was observed for short waves (zonal wavelength λU = 300 km). The maximum attenuation for all wavelengths was observed for the strongest 2008/2009 winter SSW. For the analyzed events, such attenuation was observed for up to about a month after the SSW peak. Thus, JS disruption during major SSWs leads to deactivating the source for generating small-scale wave disturbances in the stratosphere. This may affect disturbances in higher atmospheric layers. The results obtained are the experimental evidence that JS itself is the primary source for the generation of IGWs in the stratosphere–lower mesosphere.

Boreal winter stratospheric climatology in EC-EARTH: CMIP6 version

The performance of the European Consortium Earth-system model (EC-EARTH) in the boreal winter stratosphere is comprehensively assessed for the first time, in particular its version 3.3 that contributes to CMIP6. A 100-year long simulation with prescribed climatological boundary conditions and fixed radiative forcing, representative of present-day climate, is used to evaluate the simulation of the climatological stratospheric circulation and to identify model biases. Results show that EC-EARTH has a large issue with the vertical distribution of stratospheric temperature from the tropics to mid-latitudes, seemingly linked to radiative processes of ozone, leading to a biased warm middle-upper stratosphere. Associated with this model bias, EC-EARTH simulates a stronger polar vortex at upper-stratospheric levels while the Brewer-Dobson circulation at middle/lower levels is weaker than reanalysis. The amplitude of the climatological planetary waves is overall underestimated, but the magnitude of the background wave injection from the troposphere into the stratosphere is overestimated, related to a weaker polar vortex at lower-stratospheric levels and, thus, a less effective wave filtering. This bias in the westerly flow could have a contribution from parameterized waves. The overestimation of background wave driving is maximum in early-winter, and may explain the overestimated frequency of sudden stratospheric warmings at this time, as compared to reanalysis. The spatial distribution of wave injection climatology has revealed a distinctive role of the climatological planetary waves: while large-scale waves (wavenumbers 1–2) dominate the eddy heat flux over the North Pacific, small-scale waves (wavenumbers 3–4) are responsible for the doubled-lobe structure of the eddy heat flux over Eurasia. EC-EARTH properly simulates this climatological feature, although overestimates its amplitude over central Eurasia.

Global Middle-Atmosphere Response to Winter Stratospheric Variability in SABER and MLS Mean Temperature

Abstract Satellite observations of middle-atmosphere temperature are used to investigate the short-term global response to planetary wave activity in the winter stratosphere. The focus is on the relation between variations in the winter and summer hemispheres. The analysis uses observations from Thermosphere–Ionosphere–Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) for 2002–21 and Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) for 2004–21, and reanalysis temperatures and winds from MERRA-2 for 2002–21. We calculate temporal correlations of the Eliassen–Palm flux divergence in the winter stratosphere with global temperature. Results show a robust perturbation extending to midlatitudes of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) stratosphere during Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter. An increase in wave forcing is followed by a decrease in temperatures over the depth of the stratosphere in the SH, peaking at a lag of 3 days. Summer mesospheric temperature perturbations of the opposite sign are seen in many winters. Comparable signals in the NH summer middle-atmosphere are present during some SH winters but are weaker and less consistent than those in the SH during NH winter. A diagnostic evaluation of the patterns of correlation, the mesospheric zonal winds, and the stability criteria suggests that the temperature perturbations in the midlatitude summer mesosphere are more closely associated with the summer stratosphere directly below than with the wave activity in the winter stratosphere. This suggests that the interhemispheric coupling in the stratosphere is driving or contributing to the coupling between the winter stratosphere and the summer mesosphere that has been reported in several investigations. Significance Statement There are many instances in which one part of the atmosphere is found to regularly respond to perturbations occurring in a distant region. In this study, we use observations to investigate one such pattern: temperature changes at high altitude (60–100 km) in the summer that follow dynamical changes near the winter pole at 40–60 km. Such analysis is useful to understand which physical processes contribute to the global connectivity and variability of the atmosphere.

Climatic changes in European Russia and the Republic of Belarus in the XX-XXI centuries under the influence of atmospheric circulation

Climatic changes in the atmosphere from the Earth’s level to the altitude of 80 km in Russia and the Republic of Belarus (RB) are considered using data from 1251 stations of RIHMI-WDC (1976-2019), ERA5 reanalysis (1979-2019), and 99 long-row stations located in the European part of Russia (ER) and the Republic of Belarus (RB). An analysis of constructed trends in the air temperature (AT) and atmospheric precipitation is made to assess the spatial and temporal variability of the thermal and humidity regimes in the territory. Some differences in the rates of warming between the winter and summer seasons, troposphere and stratosphere are revealed. Near the earth's surface, the rate of warming is maximum in polar latitudes; the summer stratosphere cools more strongly than the winter one. To assess the influence of atmospheric circulation on the thermal regimes of ER and RB, the correlation coefficients between AT and circulation indices AO, NAO, SCAND, and EAWR are calculated. Using a low-pass Potter filter, a 40-year periodicity of temperature fluctuations in the ER and RB in November is revealed. In the winter stratosphere, a relationship between temperature fluctuations in the polar zone and the Arctic oscillation index is found. The spring restructuring of the stratospheric circulation occurs with a delay if strong sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) occur in the stratosphere in winter.

Impact of Increased Vertical Resolution in WACCM on the Climatology of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are a major mode of variability of the winter stratosphere. In recent years, climate models have improved their ability to simulate SSWs. However, the representation of the frequency and temporal distribution of SSWs in models depends on many factors and remains challenging. The vertical resolution of a model might be one such factor. Therefore, here we analyse the impact of increased vertical resolution on the simulation of major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). We compare two versions of the model, WACCM3.5 and WACCM4. We find that the frequency of occurrence of SSWs is improved in the newer version and closer to that obtained using reanalysis. Furthermore, simulations with a coupled ocean best reproduce the behaviour of temperature during these events. Increasing vertical resolution increases the number of occurrences; however, it does not produce significantly different results than standard resolution. WACCM4 also does not reproduce vortex split events well, generating far fewer of these than observed. Finally, the ratio between polar vortex splits and displacement events in the model is slightly better for non-ocean-coupled simulations. We conclude that, at least for WACCM4, the use of the high vertical resolution configuration is not cost-effective for the study of SSWs.