Climatic changes in European Russia and the Republic of Belarus in the XX-XXI centuries under the influence of atmospheric circulation

Abstract

Climatic changes in the atmosphere from the Earth’s level to the altitude of 80 km in Russia and the Republic of Belarus (RB) are considered using data from 1251 stations of RIHMI-WDC (1976-2019), ERA5 reanalysis (1979-2019), and 99 long-row stations located in the European part of Russia (ER) and the Republic of Belarus (RB). An analysis of constructed trends in the air temperature (AT) and atmospheric precipitation is made to assess the spatial and temporal variability of the thermal and humidity regimes in the territory. Some differences in the rates of warming between the winter and summer seasons, troposphere and stratosphere are revealed. Near the earth's surface, the rate of warming is maximum in polar latitudes; the summer stratosphere cools more strongly than the winter one. To assess the influence of atmospheric circulation on the thermal regimes of ER and RB, the correlation coefficients between AT and circulation indices AO, NAO, SCAND, and EAWR are calculated. Using a low-pass Potter filter, a 40-year periodicity of temperature fluctuations in the ER and RB in November is revealed. In the winter stratosphere, a relationship between temperature fluctuations in the polar zone and the Arctic oscillation index is found. The spring restructuring of the stratospheric circulation occurs with a delay if strong sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) occur in the stratosphere in winter.