Stratiform Clouds Research Articles

Light Precipitation rather than Total Precipitation Determines Aerosol Wet Removal.

Precipitation scavenging is an important sink for both organic and inorganic pollutants in the atmosphere. However, there has been controversy over the relative importance of different precipitation characteristics (i.e., the precipitation amount, intensity, frequency, and duration) in the removal of air pollutants. It is critical to reach a consensus on which precipitation characteristics are most significant for aerosol wet removal. In this study, the analysis of multisource in situ observations of aerosol wet deposition worldwide indicates that the precipitation frequency plays a first-order role in scavenging aerosols. This is because large amounts of air pollutants are efficiently removed at precipitation initiation. As the duration and amount of precipitation increase, the scavenging efficiency decreases sharply. Consequently, it is featured that light precipitation, due to its high frequency of occurrence, rather than total precipitation, determines climatological aerosol wet deposition. To further confirm this, a state-of-the-art global climate model with convection resolved is modified to reduce the light precipitation frequency in both stratiform and convective cloud regimes. Results show widespread increases in aerosol optical depth (AOD) due to the reduced wet deposition. The spatial distribution of aerosol wet deposition changes resembles that of changes in the light precipitation frequency rather than that of total precipitation changes. These findings are consistent with those from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 multimodel simulations, which show that the intermodel uncertainty in simulated AOD correlates more strongly with the uncertainty in light precipitation frequency than with that in total precipitation.

Analysis of the Meteorological Conditions and Atmospheric Numerical Simulation of an Aircraft Icing Accident

With the rapid development of the general aviation industry in China, the influence of high-impact aeronautical weather events, such as aircraft icing, on flight safety has become more and more prominent. On 1 March 2021, an aircraft conducting weather modification operations crashed over Ji’an City, due to severe icing. Using multi-source meteorological observations and atmospheric numerical simulations, we analyzed the meteorological causes of this icing accident. The results indicate that a cold front formed in northwestern China and then moved southward, which is the main weather system in the icing area. Based on the icing index, we conducted an analysis of the temperature, relative humidity, cloud liquid water path, effective particle radius, and vertical flow field, it was found that aircraft icing occurred behind the ground front, where warm-moist airflows rose along the front to result in a rapid increase of water vapor in 600–500 hPa. The increase of water vapor, in conjunction with low temperature, led to the formation of a cold stratiform cloud system. In this cloud system, there were a large number of large cloud droplets. In addition, the frontal inversion increased the atmospheric stability, allowing cloud droplets to accumulate in the low-temperature region and forming meteorological conditions conducive to icing. The Weather Research and Forecasting model was employed to provide a detailed description of the formation process of the atmospheric conditions conducive to icing, such as the uplifting motion along the front and supercooled water. Based on a real case, we investigated the formation process of icing-inducing meteorological conditions under the influence of a front in detail in this study and verified the capability of a numerical model to simulate the meteorological environment of frontal icing, in order to provide a valuable reference for meteorological early warnings and forecasts for general aviation.

Simulated particle evolution within a winter storm: contributions of riming to radar moments and precipitation fallout

Abstract. Remote sensing radars from airborne and spaceborne platforms provide critical observations of clouds to estimate precipitation rates across the globe. The ability of these radars to detect changes in precipitation properties is advanced by Doppler measurements of particle fall speed. Within mixed-phase clouds, precipitation mass and its fall characteristics are especially sensitive to the effects of riming. In this study, we quantified these effects and investigated the distinction of riming from aggregation in Doppler radar vertical profiles using quasi-idealized particle-based model simulations. Observational constraints of a control simulation were determined from airborne in situ and remote sensing measurements collected during the Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS) for a wintry–mixed precipitation event over the northeastern United States on 4 February 2022. From the upper boundary of a one-dimensional column, particle evolution was simulated through vapor deposition, aggregation, and riming processes, producing realistic Doppler radar profiles. Despite a modest observed amount of supercooled liquid water (0.05 g m−3), riming accounted for 55 % of the ice-phase precipitation mass, cumulatively increasing reflectivity by 44 % and Doppler velocity by 68 %. Independent evaluation of process-based sensitivities showed that, while radar reflectivity is comparably sensitive to either riming- or aggregation-based particle morphology, the Doppler velocity profile is uniquely sensitive to particle density changes during riming. Thus, Doppler velocity profiles advance the diagnosis of riming as a dominant microphysical process in stratiform clouds from single-wavelength radars, which has implications for quantitative constraints of particle properties in remote sensing applications.

The influence of the solar wind electric and magnetic fields on the latitude and temporal variations of the current density, JZ, of the global electric circuit, with relevance to weather and climate

Observations have shown small day-to-day stratiform cloud opacity and atmospheric dynamical responses to variations in the ionosphere-earth current density (JZ). We model the day-to-day and seasonal/bi-decadal changes in the area-integrals of ionospheric potential (Vi) near the magnetic poles due to solar wind electric field inputs. The overhead value of Vi, divided by the local column resistance (R) determines JZ, where the conductivity of the column is the result of ionization by galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) and solar and magnetospheric energetic particle precipitation. These vary with time, due to varying solar wind magnetic field inputs, not only on the day-to-day timescale (e.g., Forbush decreases) but also on the decadal and bi-decadal and century timescales. The GCR and energetic particle inputs vary with latitude, due to filtering of particle energies in the geomagnetic field. We compare area-integrals of the amplitude of the JZ variations due to Vi changes to those due to the R changes, for evaluating their global effectiveness in affecting cloud microphysics and weather and climate changes. The day-to-day and bi-decadal correlated weather and climate variations indicate JZ rather than other solar forcings as mainly responsible for the correlations. The decadal and longer climate responses to space weather are not large; however, understanding them could help improve predictions of future climate change due to greenhouse gases.

Deep-learning-driven simulations of boundary layer clouds over the Southern Great Plains

Abstract. Based on long-term observations at the Southern Great Plains site by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program for training and validation, a deep-learning model is developed to simulate the daytime evolution of boundary layer clouds (BLCs) from the perspective of land–atmosphere coupling. The model takes ARM measurements (including early-morning soundings and diurnally varying surface meteorological conditions and heat fluxes) as inputs and predicts hourly estimates (including cloud occurrence, the positions of cloud boundaries, and the vertical profile of the cloud fraction) as outputs. The deep-learning model offers good agreement with the observed cloud fields, especially in the accuracy with which cloud occurrence and base height are reproduced. When the inputs are substituted by reanalysis data from ERA5 and MERRA-2, the outputs of the deep-learning model provide a better agreement with observation than the cloud fields extracted from ERA5 and MERRA-2 themselves. Thus, the deep-learning model shows great potential to serve as a diagnostic tool for the performance of physics-based models in simulating stratiform and cumulus clouds. By quantifying biases in clouds and attributing them to the simulated atmospheric state variables versus the model-parameterized cloud processes, this observation-based deep-learning model may offer insights into the directions needed to improve the simulation of BLCs in physics-based models for weather forecasting and climate prediction.

Longwave Radiative Feedback Due To Stratiform and Anvil Clouds

AbstractStudies have implicated the importance of longwave (LW) cloud‐radiative forcing (CRF) in facilitating or accelerating the upscale development of tropical moist convection. While different cloud types are known to have distinct CRF, their individual roles in driving upscale development through radiative feedback is largely unexplored. Here we examine the hypothesis that CRF from stratiform regions has the greatest positive effect on upscale development of tropical convection. We do so through numerical model experiments using convection‐permitting ensemble WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) simulations of tropical cyclone formation. Using a new column‐by‐column cloud classification scheme, we identify the contributions of five cloud types (shallow, congestus, and deep convective; and stratiform and anvil clouds). We examine their relative impacts on longwave radiation moist static energy (MSE) variance feedback and test the removal of this forcing in additional mechanism‐denial simulations. Our results indicate the importance stratiform and anvil regions in accelerating convective upscale development.

Improving Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Climate in E3SM: Impacts of New Cloud Microphysics and Improved Wet Removal Treatments

AbstractNumerous Earth system models exhibit excessive aerosol effective forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), including the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). Here, in the context of the E3SM version 3 effort, the predicted particle property (P3) stratiform cloud microphysics scheme and an enhanced deep convection parameterization suite (ZM_plus) are implemented into E3SM. The ZM_plus includes a convective cloud microphysics scheme, a multi‐scale coherent structure parameterization for mesoscale convective systems, and a revised cloud base mass flux formulation considering impacts of the large‐scale environment. The P3 scheme improved cloud and radiation particularly over the Northern Hemisphere and the frequency of heavy precipitation over the tropics, and the ZM_plus improved clouds in the tropics. P3 decreases aerosol effective forcing by 0.15 W m−2, while the ZM_plus increases it by 0.27 W m−2, resulting from excessive direct (0.31 W m−2) and indirect forcing (−1.79 W m−2). The excessive aerosol forcings are due to aerosol overestimation associated with insufficient aerosol wet removal. By improving the physical treatments in the aerosol wet removal, we effectively mitigate anthropogenic aerosol overestimation and thus attenuate direct (0.09 W m−2) and indirect aerosol forcing (−1.52 W m−2). Adjustment to primary organic matter hygroscopicity reduces direct and indirect forcing to more reasonable values: −0.13 W m−2 and −1.31 W m−2, respectively. On climatology, improved aerosol treatments mitigate overestimation of aerosol optical depth.

Drizzle microphysical property and vertical air motions retrieval using Doppler lidar and radar measurements

The microphysical changes in cloud formation and development are closely related to the vertical air motions. It is difficult to simultaneously detect microphysical parameters of drizzle and vertical air motions. This study proposes a method for the drizzle microphysical property and vertical air motions retrieval using Doppler lidar and radar measurements. The wavelength of lidar is 1.55 µm, and it undergoes Mie scattering or geometric scattering in drizzle. The wavelength of radar is 8.6 mm, and it undergoes Rayleigh scattering or Mie scattering in drizzle. The difference in scattering mechanisms of two wavelengths enables them to retrieve the microphysical parameters of vertical air motions and raindrops. This wavelength-dependent backscattering cross section causes differently shaped reflectivity-weighted Doppler velocity spectra leading to wavelength-dependent mean Doppler velocity, and spectra width. In this algorithm, the echo power intensity, mean Doppler velocity and spectra width of lidar and radar are used for the retrieval of microphysical parameters and vertical air motions. The feasibility of the proposed method is simulated and analyzed, which is suitable for stratiform clouds rainfall with low turbulence. Finally, an observation case is provided and analyzed.

Characterizing Mesoscale Cellular Convection in Marine Cold Air Outbreaks With a Machine Learning Approach

AbstractDuring marine cold‐air outbreaks (MCAOs), when cold polar air moves over warmer ocean, a well‐recognized cloud pattern develops, with open or closed mesoscale cellular convection (MCC) at larger fetch over open water. The Cold‐Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment provided a comprehensive set of ground‐based in situ and remote sensing observations of MCAOs at a coastal location in northern Norway. MCAO periods that unambiguously exhibit open or closed MCC are determined. Individual cells observed with a profiling Ka‐band radar are identified using a watershed segmentation method. Using self‐organizing maps (SOMs), these cells are then objectively classified based on the variability in their vertical structure. The SOM nodes contain some information about the location of the cell transect relative to the center of the MCC. This adds classification noise, requiring numerous cell transects to isolate cell dynamical information. The SOM‐based classification shows that comparatively intense convection occurs only in open MCC. This convection undergoes an apparent lifecycle. Developing cells are associated with stronger updrafts, large spectrum width, larger amounts of liquid water, lower surface precipitation rates, and lower cloud tops than mature and weakening cells. The weakening of these cells is associated with the development of precipitation‐induced cold pools. The SOM classification also reveals less intense convection, with a similar lifecycle. More stratiform vertical cloud structures with weak vertical motions are common during closed MCC periods and are separated into precipitating and non‐precipitating stratiform cores. Convection is observed only occasionally in the closed MCC environment.

Cloud Height Distributions and the Role of Vertical Mixing in the Tropical Cyclone Eye Derived From Compact Raman Lidar Observations

AbstractThe distribution of tropical cyclone (TC) eye cloud heights is documented for the first time using compact Raman lidar (CRL) measurements with high spatial resolution. These cloud heights act as tracers for low‐level vertical mixing in the eye region. Cloud height distributions using all available data from nine Atlantic TCs in 2021 and 2022 show significant vertical variance, dispelling the notion of a flat stratiform eye cloud deck. Eye cloud widths are multiscale, with shallow convective clouds dominating CRL returns. Data from Hurricane Sam (2021) highlight the evolution of shallow convective clouds in the TC eye and their associated temperature inversions. The frequent appearance of convective eye clouds, along with observed vertical wind fluctuations, suggests that vertical mixing from the boundary layer frequently occurs in the TC eye, even beneath strong inversions. This strong vertical mixing should be accurately portrayed by TC simulations and forecasts.

Reduced‐Order Modeling for Linearized Representations of Microphysical Process Rates

AbstractRepresenting cloud microphysical processes in large scale atmospheric models is challenging because many processes depend on the details of the droplet size distribution (DSD, the spectrum of droplets with different sizes in a cloud). While full or partial statistical moments of droplet size distributions are the typical variables used in bulk models, prognostic moments are limited in their ability to represent microphysical processes across the range of conditions experienced in the atmosphere. Microphysical parameterizations employing prognostic moments are known to suffer from structural uncertainty in their representations of inherently higher dimensional cloud processes, which limit model fidelity and lead to forecasting errors. Here we investigate how data‐driven reduced‐order modeling can be used to learn predictors for microphysical process rates in bulk microphysics schemes in an unsupervised manner from higher dimensional bin distributions. Using simulations characteristic of marine stratiform clouds, we simultaneously learn lower dimensional representations of droplet size distributions and predict the evolution of the microphysical state of the system. Droplet collision‐coalescence, the main process for generating warm rain, is estimated to have an intrinsic dimension of three. This intrinsic dimension provides a lower limit on the number of degrees of freedom needed to accurately represent collision‐coalescence in models. We demonstrate how deep learning based reduced‐order modeling can be used to discover intrinsic coordinates describing the microphysical state of the system, where process rates such as collision‐coalescence are globally linearized. These implicitly learned representations of the DSD retain more information about the DSD than typical moment‐based representations.

Determining the time constant of the global atmospheric electric circuit through modelling and observations

The DC global electric circuit (GEC) distributes charge in the lower atmosphere by current flow between “generator regions” (thunderstorms and rain clouds) and “load regions” (distant conductive air), with a timescale defined by circuit properties. Previously, the load has only been modelled by assuming fair weather (FW) conditions, neglecting cloud. As stratiform clouds cover ∼30 % of the Earth's surface, load resistance has been added to represent them, considered to provide semi fair weather (semi-FW) conditions. This increases the GEC timescale by 9 % for stratocumulus, or 33 % for stratus at a lower level. Including mutual capacitance between the outer charged layer and an electrode representing stratocumulus clouds increases the timescale by 35 %, to 8.6 min. These modelled results - the first including the semi-FW aspects - are demonstrated to be consistent with experimentally determined timescales of the real GEC, of between 7 and 12 min, derived from volcanic lightning variations associated with the May 2011 Grímsvötn eruption in Iceland. Accounting for semi-FW circumstances improves the modelled representation of the natural global circuit. Further, the GEC timescale is comparable with cloud droplet charging timescales in the updrafts of extensive layer clouds, suggesting its possible relevance to the microphysical behaviour of stratiform (layer) clouds in the climate system.

Precipitation Characteristics at Different Developmental Stages of the Tibetan Plateau Vortex in July 2021 Based on GPM-DPR Data

The Tibetan Plateau vortex (TPV), as an α-scale mesoscale weather system, often brings severe weather conditions like torrential rain and severe convective storms. Based on the detections from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory’s Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) and the FY-4A satellite’s Advanced Geostationary Radiation Imager (AGRI), combined with ERA5 reanalysis data, the precipitation characteristics of a TPV moving eastward during 8–13 July 2021 at different developmental stages are explored in this study. It was clear that the near-surface precipitation rate of the TPV during the initial stage at the eastern Tibetan Plateau (TP) was below 1 mm·h−1, implying overall weak precipitation dominated by stratiform clouds. After moving out of the TP, the radar reflectivity factor (Ze), precipitation rate, and normalized intercept parameter (dBNw) significantly increased, while the proportion of convective clouds gradually rose. Following the TPV movement, the distribution range and vertical thickness of Ze, mass-weighted mean diameter (Dm), and dBNw tended to increase. The high-frequency region of Ze appeared at 15–20 dBZ, while Dm and dBNw occurred at around 1 mm and 33 mm−1·m−3, respectively. Near the melting layer, Ze was characterized by a significant increase due to the aggregation and melting of ice crystals. The precipitation rate of convective clouds was generally greater than that of stratiform clouds, whilst both of them increased during the movement of the TPV. Particularly, at 01:00 on 12 July, there was a significant increase in the precipitation rate and Dm of convective clouds, while dBNw noticeably decreased. These findings could provide valuable insights into the three-dimensional structure and microphysical characteristics of the precipitation during the movement of the TPV, contributing to a better understanding of cloud precipitation mechanisms.

The characteristics of cloud macro-parameters caused by the seeder–feeder process inside clouds measured by millimeter-wave cloud radar in Xi'an, China

Abstract. The seeding effect of upper clouds on lower clouds affects the evolution of clouds, especially the seeding from upper ice clouds on lower stratiform clouds or convective clouds, which can stimulate the precipitation of lower clouds and even produce extreme precipitation. When seeders of the seeding cloud enter the feeding cloud, the interaction between cloud particles results in the change in macro- and micro-parameters of the feeding cloud. Based on the observation data of a ground-based Ka-band millimeter-wave cloud radar (MMCR) and microwave radiometer (MWR) in spring and autumn from 2021 to 2022, the seeder–feeder phenomenon among double-layer clouds in Xi'an, China, is studied. The study on 11 cases of seeder–feeder processes shows that the processes can be divided into three types by defining the height difference (HD) between the seeding cloud base and the feeding cloud top and the effective seeding depth (ESD). Through analysis of the reflectivity factor (Z) and the radial velocity (Vr) of cloud particles detected by the MMCR and on the retrieved cloud dynamics parameters (vertical velocity of airflow, Va, and terminal velocity of cloud particles, Vf), it is shown that the reflectivity factor and particle terminal velocity in the cloud are significantly enhanced during the seeder–feeder period for the three types of processes. But the enhancement magnitudes of the three seeder–feeder processes are different. The results also show that the impact of seeding on the feeding cloud is limited. The lower the height and thinner the thickness of the HD, the lower the height and thicker the thickness of the ESD. On the contrary, the higher the height and the thicker the thickness of the HD, the higher the height and the thinner the thickness of the ESD.

Simulations of the impact of cloud condensation nuclei and ice-nucleating particles perturbations on the microphysics and radar reflectivity factor of stratiform mixed-phase clouds

Abstract. In this research, we delve into the influence of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice-nucleating particle (INP) concentrations on the morphology and abundance of ice particles in mixed-phase clouds, emphasizing the consequential impact of ice particle shape, number, and size on cloud dynamics and microphysics. Leveraging the synergy of the Advanced Microphysics Prediction System (AMPS) and the Kinematic Driver (KiD) model, we conducted simulations to capture cloud microphysics across diverse CCN and INP concentrations. The Passive and Active Microwave radiative TRAnsfer (PAMTRA) radar forward simulator further augmented our study, offering insights into how the concentrations of CCN and INPs affect radar reflectivities. Our experimental framework encompassed CCN concentrations ranging from 10 to 5000 cm−3 and INP concentrations from 0.001 to 10 L−1. Central to our findings is the observation that higher INP concentrations yield smaller ice particles, while an increase in CCN concentrations leads to a subtle growth in their dimensions. Consistent with existing literature, our results spotlight oblate-like crystals as dominant between temperatures of −20 and −16 °C. Notably, high-INP scenarios unveiled a significant prevalence of irregular polycrystals. The aspect ratio (AR) of ice particles exhibited a decline with the rise in both CCN and INP concentrations, highlighting the nuanced interrelation between CCN levels and ice particle shape, especially its ramifications on the riming mechanism. The forward-simulated radar reflectivities, spanning from −11.83 dBZ (low INP, 0.001 L−1) to 4.65 dBZ (high INP, 10 L−1), elucidate the complex dynamics between CCN and INPs in determining mixed-phase cloud characteristics. Comparable differences in radar reflectivity were also reported from observational studies of stratiform mixed-phase clouds in contrasting aerosol environments. Our meticulous analysis of KiD-AMPS simulation outputs, coupled with insights into aerosol-driven microphysical changes, thus underscores the significance of this study in refining our ability to understand and interpret observations and climate projections.

Evaluation of Satellite-Based Rainfall Estimates against Rain Gauge Observations across Agro-Climatic Zones of Nigeria, West Africa

Satellite rainfall estimates (SREs) play a crucial role in weather monitoring, forecasting and modeling, particularly in regions where ground-based observations may be limited. This study presents a comprehensive evaluation of three commonly used SREs—African Rainfall Climatology version 2 (ARC2), Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) and Tropical Application of Meteorology using SATellite data and ground-based observation (TAMSAT)— with respect to their performance in detecting rainfall patterns in Nigeria at daily scales from 2002 to 2022. Observed data obtained from the Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NiMet) are used as reference data. Evaluation metrics such as correlation coefficient, root mean square error, mean error, bias, probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), and critical success index (CSI) are employed to assess the performance of the SREs. The results show that all the SREs exhibit low bias during the major rainfall season from May to October, and the products significantly overestimate observed rainfall during the dry period from November to March in the Sahel and Savannah Zones. Similarly, over the Guinea Zone, all the products indicate overestimation in the dry season. The underperformance of SREs in dry seasons could be attributed to the rainfall retrieval algorithms, intensity of rainfall occurrence and spatial-temporal resolution. These factors could potentially lead to the accuracy of the rainfall retrieval being reduced due to intense stratiform clouds. However, all the SREs indicated better detection capabilities and less false alarms during the wet season than in dry periods. CHIRPS and TAMSAT exhibited high POD and CSI values with the least FAR across agro-climatic zones during dry periods. Generally, CHIRPS turned out to be the best SRE and, as such, would provide a useful dataset for research and operational use in Nigeria.

Uncertainties in cloud-radiative heating within an idealized extratropical cyclone

Abstract. Cloud-radiative heating (CRH) within the atmosphere affects the dynamics and predictability of extratropical cyclones. However, CRH is uncertain in numerical weather prediction and climate models, and this could affect model predictions of extratropical cyclones. In this paper, we present a systematic quantification of CRH uncertainties. To this end, we study an idealized extratropical cyclone simulated at a convection-permitting resolution of 2.5 km and combine large-eddy-model simulations at a 300 m resolution with offline radiative transfer calculations. We quantify four factors contributing to the CRH uncertainty in different regions of the cyclone: 3D cloud-radiative effects, parameterization of ice optical properties, cloud horizontal heterogeneity, and cloud vertical overlap. The last two factors can be considered essentially resolved at 300 m but need to be parameterized at a 2.5 km resolution. Our results indicate that parameterization of ice optical properties and cloud horizontal heterogeneity are the two factors contributing most to the mean uncertainty in CRH at larger spatial scales and can be more relevant for the large-scale dynamics of the cyclone. On the other hand, 3D cloud-radiative effects are much smaller on average, especially for stratiform clouds within the warm conveyor belt of the cyclone. Our analysis in particular highlights the potential to improve the simulation of CRH by better representing ice optical properties. Future work should, in particular, address how uncertainty in ice optical properties affects the dynamics and predictability of extratropical cyclones.

AIDER: Aircraft Icing Potential Area DEtection in Real-Time Using 3-Dimensional Radar and Atmospheric Variables

Aircraft icing refers to the accumulation of ice on the surface and components of an aircraft when supercooled water droplets collide with the aircraft above freezing levels (at altitudes at which the temperature is below 0 °C), which requires vigilant monitoring to avert aviation accidents attributable to icing. In response to this imperative, the Weather Radar Center (WRC) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has developed a real-time icing detection algorithm. We utilized 3D dual-polarimetric radar variables, 3D atmospheric variables, and aircraft icing data and statistically analyzed these variables within the icing areas determined by aircraft icing data from 2018–2022. An algorithm capable of detecting icing potential areas (icing potential) was formulated by applying these characteristics. Employing this detection algorithm enabled the classification of icing potential into three stages: precipitation, icing caution, and icing warning. The algorithm was validated, demonstrating a notable performance with a probability of detection value of 0.88. The algorithm was applied to three distinct icing cases under varying environmental conditions—frontal, stratiform, and cumuliform clouds—thereby offering real-time observable icing potential across the entire Korean Peninsula.

How Might the May 2015 Flood in the U.S. Southern Great Plains Induced by Clustered MCSs Unfold in the Future?

AbstractThe historic 22–26 May 2015 flood event in Texas and Oklahoma was caused by anomalous clustered mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) that produced record‐breaking rainfall and $3 billion of damage in the region. A month‐long regional convection‐permitting simulation is conducted to reconstruct multiple clustered MCSs that lead to this flood event. We further use the pseudo global warming approach to examine how a similar event may unfold in a warmer climate and the driving physical factors for the changes. Tracking of MCSs in observations and simulations shows that the historical simulation reproduces the salient characteristics of the observed MCSs. In a warmer climate under a high‐emission (SSP5‐8.5) scenario, the Southern Great Plains is projected to experience a near surface warming of 4–6 K, accompanied by enhanced moisture transport by the strengthened Great Plains low‐level jet. A warmer and moister lower troposphere leads to 36%–59% larger convective available potential energy, supporting wider and more intense convective updrafts and rainfall production. Consistently, MCSs have wider convective areas and stronger rainfall intensities, producing 50% larger rain volumes during the mature stage. Extreme (99.5%) MCS rainfall frequency and amount will increase by threefold. However, MCS stratiform rain area decreases as a result of elevated stratiform cloud bases that lead to stronger sublimation and evaporation of precipitation in response to warming, resulting in reduced weak‐to‐moderate surface precipitation. Results suggest that global warming greatly increases precipitation intensity of clustered MCS events under strong synoptic influence, with much higher potential to produce serious floods without additional climate adaptation.

Observation and Reanalysis Derived Relationships Between Cloud and Land Surface Fluxes Across Cumulus and Stratiform Coupling Over the Southern Great Plains

AbstractUnderstanding interactions between low clouds and land surface fluxes is critical to comprehending Earth's energy balance, yet their relationships remain elusive, with discrepancies between observations and modeling. Leveraging long‐term field observations over the Southern Great Plains, this investigation revealed that cloud‐land interactions are closely connected to cloud‐land coupling regimes. Observational evidence supports a dual‐mode interaction: coupled stratiform clouds predominate in low sensible heat scenarios, while coupled cumulus clouds dominate in high sensible heat scenarios. Reanalysis data sets, MERRA‐2 and ERA‐5, obscure this dichotomy owing to a shortfall in representing boundary layer clouds, especially in capturing the initiation of coupled cumulus in high sensible heat scenarios. ERA‐5 demonstrates a relatively closer alignment with observational data, particularly in capturing relationships between cloud frequency and latent heat, markedly outperforming MERRA‐2. Our study underscores the necessity of distinguishing different cloud coupling regimes, essential to the understanding of their interactions for advancing land‐atmosphere interactions.