Uncertainties in cloud-radiative heating within an idealized extratropical cyclone

Abstract

Abstract. Cloud-radiative heating (CRH) within the atmosphere affects the dynamics and predictability of extratropical cyclones. However, CRH is uncertain in numerical weather prediction and climate models, and this could affect model predictions of extratropical cyclones. In this paper, we present a systematic quantification of CRH uncertainties. To this end, we study an idealized extratropical cyclone simulated at a convection-permitting resolution of 2.5 km and combine large-eddy-model simulations at a 300 m resolution with offline radiative transfer calculations. We quantify four factors contributing to the CRH uncertainty in different regions of the cyclone: 3D cloud-radiative effects, parameterization of ice optical properties, cloud horizontal heterogeneity, and cloud vertical overlap. The last two factors can be considered essentially resolved at 300 m but need to be parameterized at a 2.5 km resolution. Our results indicate that parameterization of ice optical properties and cloud horizontal heterogeneity are the two factors contributing most to the mean uncertainty in CRH at larger spatial scales and can be more relevant for the large-scale dynamics of the cyclone. On the other hand, 3D cloud-radiative effects are much smaller on average, especially for stratiform clouds within the warm conveyor belt of the cyclone. Our analysis in particular highlights the potential to improve the simulation of CRH by better representing ice optical properties. Future work should, in particular, address how uncertainty in ice optical properties affects the dynamics and predictability of extratropical cyclones.