AIDER: Aircraft Icing Potential Area DEtection in Real-Time Using 3-Dimensional Radar and Atmospheric Variables

Abstract

Aircraft icing refers to the accumulation of ice on the surface and components of an aircraft when supercooled water droplets collide with the aircraft above freezing levels (at altitudes at which the temperature is below 0 °C), which requires vigilant monitoring to avert aviation accidents attributable to icing. In response to this imperative, the Weather Radar Center (WRC) of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has developed a real-time icing detection algorithm. We utilized 3D dual-polarimetric radar variables, 3D atmospheric variables, and aircraft icing data and statistically analyzed these variables within the icing areas determined by aircraft icing data from 2018–2022. An algorithm capable of detecting icing potential areas (icing potential) was formulated by applying these characteristics. Employing this detection algorithm enabled the classification of icing potential into three stages: precipitation, icing caution, and icing warning. The algorithm was validated, demonstrating a notable performance with a probability of detection value of 0.88. The algorithm was applied to three distinct icing cases under varying environmental conditions—frontal, stratiform, and cumuliform clouds—thereby offering real-time observable icing potential across the entire Korean Peninsula.