Strategic Vacuum Research Articles

Integration and Disintegration in Europe: A Study on Brexit

Regionalism is the creation of political, economic, or social structures loyal to a detailed analysis of a Geographic area with a similar population in terms of ideology and culture. Capitalism and state-to-state diplomacy are fundamentally based on regional integration. The ideas emphasize how interdependent and geographically significant states are. These nations are widely acknowledged as a single commercial bloc and are pursuing more ambitious political and economic goals. To accomplish this, member states' capitalism and intergovernmental systems come together. The European Union (EU) is Europe's attempt to become a regional organization, the most significant effort to establish regionalism in markets in the 20th century. The United Kingdom (UK) will leave the European Union on March 29 2019, leading to a new course in the world. When on June 23 2016, a majority voted in favour of the United Kingdom leaving the European Union (EU), it generated a host of unknowns. Over to the referendum, all are focused on anticipating the impact and implications of Britain's withdrawal from the European Union. This paper will add another piece to Brexit and its emergence. This paper tries to explain regionalism in Europe and European integration, the UK's Withdrawal referendum, and its Exit and also traces the importance of the political parties in Britain. Afterwards, it briefly introduces Britain's historically fractious relationship with the EU. In light of Britain's historical role, the remaining part of this paper goes on to estimate the background and impact of Brexit on the regional organization like European Union, which members and institutions within the organization emerges (the EU 27) will be best able to benefit from the strategic vacuum created the Brexit in the Globalized era.

Recognition of the Taliban Government in Afghanistan

The Taliban takeover of Kabul is a significant regional development having domestic, regional and global implications. Regarding the recognition of the new Taliban government; recently announced, the important states of the international community are responding with caution based on their strategic calculations, political values and long-term foreign policy goals in the regions adjoining Afghanistan. The states having stakes in Afghanistan are mainly divided in two groups: The US led group and the China-Russia led group of states. The US led group has advocated that the conduct of the Taliban on fundamental human rights, their commitment of forming an inclusive government and their detachment from international terrorist networks will be taken in consideration for deciding on the question of recognition and determining the nature of engagement with Afghanistan. The China-Russia group, is more in favor of regional stability and interested in filling the strategic vacuum left in Afghanistan by the US and its allies. The regional states are realigning themselves, with either of the major group, to respond to the unfolding situation in Afghanistan. Based on the conceptual framework of recognition of new governments in International Law and International Relations, this paper attempts to analyze the responses and concerns of the diverse international community vis-à-vis the newly formed Taliban government in Afghanistan.

Cyber conflict short of war: a European strategic vacuum

ABSTRACT Cyber conflict short of war plays an increasingly important role in contemporary security politics. Dedicated to a study of three European NATO members – the Netherlands, France and Norway, this article expands the existing focus of the study of cyber conflict short of war beyond its dominating US context. It compares and assesses how the countries perceive and respond to a changing strategic environment characterised by increasing cyber conflict short of war. The analysis demonstrates that all three countries acknowledge that cyber operations short of war alter the strategic environment and challenge the idea of deploying offencive cyber capabilities as purely a warfare matter. However, it also identifies a strategic vacuum, as none of them have formulated strategies that describe in detail how military and intelligence entities are supposed to approach and manage the new strategic environment. The article asserts that the current lack of strategic guidance is a fundamental challenge that puts European societies at risk and undermines democratic governance as navigating the new space of strategic cyber competition is a significant challenge to contemporary European statecraft. It concludes by noting three avenues for how to ameliorate this situation and fill the vacuum.

China’s Alternative Prudent Approach in Afghanistan

AbstractAfter the catastrophic 9/11 terrorist attacks, the United States (US) launched a war in Afghanistan to combat terrorism as a major non‐traditional security threat. Twenty years later, Afghanistan is still struggling for solidarity, stability, and development, and remains a hotbed for transnational terrorism. Although observers view China as a key player in Afghanistan, which will fill the strategic vacuum left by the US withdrawal, a successful Chinese approach in Afghanistan depends on many factors including the US competition strategy vis‐à‐vis China, the Taliban's rule, neighbouring countries’ interests and choices with respect to Afghanistan, and other factors. Therefore, China may devise a realistic, pragmatic, constructive, and cooperative approach to address the non‐traditional security challenges in Afghanistan. Taking due cognisance of the bitter stories of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan, China maintained a low‐key stance in Afghanistan after the Soviets withdrew from the country. After 1991, to address the security concerns in Xinjiang, China supported the building of a stable, peaceful, and prosperous Afghanistan and seeks to avoid any military presence in the country. China will largely maintain this prudent approach in Afghanistan after US withdrawal from the country.

Brief Synopses of New Arabic-Language Publications

Brief Synopses of New Arabic-Language Publications

L’organisation de cooperation de Shanghai (OCS) dans la Nouvelle Asie: une generalisation d’apres-guerre?

This article analyzes the concept of «New Asia» and the role of the SCO on it. The emergence of the “Shanghai spirit” сconsidered in the context of a strategic change in the post-bipolar period. The purpose of the article is to demonstrate the main milestones in the formation and development of the SCO and to study its potential as a regional system that fills the strategic vacuum in the Eurasian space. Special attention paid to the expansion of the SCO, the role of its partners and observers. This analysis proves that a platform for discussion and common decision-making is being created. Article attempts to give a conceptual framework of the concept of “New Asia” in the context of an analysis of the process of searching and developing solutions of common interest throughout this global space. A study of the political results of the SCO development process reveals SCO has no hostile intentions, but on the contrary creates an Asian space for member states. The space where the process of regional construction of neighboring states, the construction of a sustainable one, with which one can count on the search for common solutions and the subsequent implementation of common tasks are underway. At the same time, cooperation with the structures created earlier is also developing. In Europe, regional cooperation began after the Second World War, in African countries after the process of decolonization, Latin America has been in search of regional identity for a century and a half since its decolonization. One of the conclusions of this article is that the new Sino-post-Soviet Asia after the Cold War has a common historical and political basis for the formation of the region. A particular institutional illustration of this process is seen through the influence of the SCO. The SCO confirms the emergence of New Asia within the existing conceptual and contextual framework and offers other hypotheses to designate a modern region beyond Asia. The article raises a controversial question – what effective evidence of a causal relationship between post-war regionalization and regionalization of recent decades can be cited? Key words: SCO, “New Asia”, regional construction, cooperation.

Проблемы и дилеммы следующего договора СНВ

Received 28.02.2021. In the end of January 2021, the New START Treaty was extended by five years by the United States and Russia. Thus, the two nuclear superpowers have time to work on the follow-on treaty not in a strategic vacuum, but relying on the valid treaty and its system of transparency and predictability. The promoters of abolishing negotiations on arms limitation and their substitution by amorphous multilateral discussions of “a general philosophy of strategic stability”, who have been highly active during recent years, have temporarily shied away, but probably not for long. The predictable difficulties of the forthcoming negotiations would be interpreted as the evidence of their impending doom, and this may turn into a self-fulfilling prophesy and once again deadlock the dialogue. During the previous decades, the development of the military technologies and new strategic concepts have changed strategic relationship of the parties. This was happening against the background of deteriorating political relations, a long pause of arms control negotiations and abrogation of a number of crucial disarmament treaties. Now the two sides have to catch up. Already it is possible to foresee the main differences of their positions. Washington is emphasizing deep reduction of the nuclear arms of the two superpowers – both strategic and tactical. Moscow has advanced a concept of “security equation”, which implies limitation of offensive and defensive arms – both nuclear and nonnuclear. There will be a great demand for strong political will and wisdom of the leaders of the two nations and of hard work and professionalism of civilian and military experts – in order to restore arms control, which has historically proved its effectiveness as a barrier in preventing nuclear war and as a stabilizer of turbulent world politics.

China, Iran and Turkey: new players in the Central Asia

The collapse of the Soviet Union led to the creation of a strategic vacuum in Central Asia, paving the way for new players to join the “big game” to extend control and influence over the region’s economically, politically and security potential. China, Iran and Turkey were among the most important players, with overlapping ethnic overlaps. This study aimed to identify the role of Iran, China, and Turkey in Central Asia. The problem of the study is to understand the role of Iran, Turkey and Iran in Central Asia, and what these countries seek to achieve their goals and influence in the region after the collapse of the Soviet Union, which led to the creation of a strategic space in Central Asia paved the way for the accession of new players in the “ Great game “to extend control and influence on the potential of this region economically, politically and security. The results of this study showed that China’s economic penetration helped to curtail American influence in Central Asia, as well as the closure of the US base in Uzbekistan in 2006 and the official call of the Shanghai Organization in June 2006 to close American bases in Central Asia. “Iran’s interests are centered on maintaining relations Effective policy with the Central Asian countries to allow for long-term trade and investment expansion and to help Iran emerge from international isolation and US blockade. Ankara is striving to make Turkey a pipeline for oil and gas from Central Asia and the Middle East to Europe, Nabucco to build a 3,300-km pipeline worth 5.6 billion dollars from Turkey to Western Europe is one of the most important tools for achieving this strategy. Key words: Central Asia, strategic vacuum, strategic zone, investments, international economy, regional policy.

Turkey and Iran: Strategic Thinking towards the Middle East "Comparative Study"

The retreat of Iraq after US occupation, the decline of the Arab states after Arab political changes, and the chaos in which following the change after 2011, led to the emergence of a strategic vacuum and absence of a unified response, thus forming an incentive for Iran and Turkey to activate their strategic performance in the Middle East. As an expression of the accumulation of the historical aspects of both powers, as well as the growing abilities, each state try to increasing of its role, but the central question, where the signs of symmetry and asymmetry?, and why?.
 Turkey and Iran are a regional players in the Middle East. The strategic thinking of the two countries is based on ideology and interest. However, the interest occupies the most important place in the strategic performance, especially in addressing the political issues of Middle East. The symmetry and asymmetry are regarded the basic pillars of the Turkish and Iranian strategic thinking. The research attempts to prove that the interest occupies a more important position than ideology in Turkey and Iran, especially after the political change in the Arab world by clarifying all the characteristics of Iran and Turkey strategic thinking and conduct compares among them.

From great power politics to a strategic vacuum: Origins and consequences of the TPP and TTIP

AbstractIn this paper, we place the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) into broader geo-political and economic context given the current Trump Administration's withdrawal from the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) and the loss of momentum for TTIP. Both TPP and TTIP sought to provide key tactical solutions to the particular trade/investment problems participating states faced. For the U.S. government, these free trade agreements also represented a geo-political undertaking, an attempt to once again set trade rules in light of deadlock in the WTO. Ultimately, the inability of the Obama Administration to successfully complete negotiations for and ratification of these two deals does not alter the underlying motivations that led to them in the first place. The stagnation of these deals, however, has intensified geo-economic and geo-strategic concerns: opening the door to rival articulations of trade governance and undermining U.S. credibility with its partners.

The Cyber Pearl Harbor

The article describes the incentives that would motivate an opponent to incorporate a surprise cyber attack into a conventional operation to defeat US deterrent strategies by presenting the United States with a fait accompli. In describing this ‘Cyber Pearl Harbor’, the article explores the organizational and intelligence constraints that make it difficult to respond to the prospect of a combined cyber surprise attack and conventional operation. The article suggests that a cyber surprise attack will not occur in a political or strategic vacuum. Instead, weak opponents will use it to achieve objectives that could not be attained if US and allied forces were fully alerted.

GEOPOLITICS OF US WALKING OUT FROM AFGHANISTAN

After 13 ( 15 in 2014 at the time of departure) years of unsuccessful war , US withdrawal may cause a major political, security and strategic vacuum in Afghanistan , which may not only further deteriorate the situation of Afghanistan but also cause many problems in neighbouring and regional countries. These countries have their own political, economical and security interests and objectives in Afghanistan. Therefore, these countries will try to influence Afghanistan in many ways after the departure. Therefore, the interests, role and strategy of Pakistan, India, Russia, Iran, China and Turkey has been analysed in detail in this paper. This paper also discusses different partnerships which emerge in Afghanistan after the exit of the US and allied forces.

اثر التغيرات السياسية في المنطقة العربية في السياسات الإقليمية وانعكاساتها على العراق

The Arab revolutions that began in late 2010 resulted in the fall of many political regimes in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, which gave the impression of the beginning of a new phase in the regional system based on the adoption of the principle of peaceful transfer of power and the rule of free elections in determining the legitimacy of the regime. The transformation that the transforming countries went through has created a kind of strategic vacuum that the regional powers (Turkey and Iran) have worked to fill, considering that the opportunity has become available to influence strongly in reshaping and shaping the future of the Arab countries according to the model that these powers are trying to export. These forces led to the division of the Arab regime into axes supporting or opposing, whether Turkish or Iranian intervention, and Iraq had a presence in this equation, as Iraq is trying to exploit these changes and the fall of many regimes opposed to it in the past to build new relations and play a major role in the region, taking advantage of the state of instability However, the intensity of the competition between the Turkish and Iranian parties has made Iraq’s attempts difficult, especially in light of a group of elements that are still It imposes its influence on the official and popular Arab decision and works to sort the forces and categorize them with or against the Turkish or Iranian model, which has an impact on their view of the Iraqi role as part of the axes' policy.

The Hunt for Martín Caballero

While the success of Colombia's fight against illegal armed groups, led by Fuerzas armadas revolucionarias de Colombia – ejército del pueblo (FARC-EP), is generally lauded as evidence of the effectiveness of both COIN doctrine and security assistance, the configuration of Colombia's counter-insurgency effort remains largely unstudied. This article will explain the success of one of those campaigns carried out principally by the Colombian marines (Colmar) in an area of northern Colombia known as the Montes de María. Contingent factors shaped the success of this campaign, beginning with the fact that the Montes de María forms an area where insurgents, relative late comers to the region, found it difficult to put down deep roots. However, operations to eradicate them were complicated by the inexperience of the Colmar, and by constraints placed by Colombia's Constitutional Court on COIN methods modeled on those successfully applied by the British in Malaya and Kenya. Therefore, Colmar officers initiated their five-year campaign by building up a base of popular support in the towns and targeting insurgent logistical networks. This bought time to strengthen the Colmar's combat and intelligence capabilities, and take the offensive that eventually isolated and killed the leader of the FARC in the Montes de María, Martín Caballero. Unfortunately, the failure of the Colombian government to follow up the Colmar victory by installing a regional and local governments viewed as legitimate by the population, and to resolve long standing land tenure issues, has meant that, so far, the Colmar looks to have delivered a tactical victory in a strategic vacuum.

The Elusive Axis: Assessing the EU-China Strategic Partnership

This article evaluates whether the Sino–European partnership can be considered strategic. At the discourse level it is found that both sides fail to identify common interests, joint priorities continue to be concentrated in the business sector, and China and Europe have not been able to determine what the relevance of their relationship is compared to other powers. In practice this is even more problematic. The strategic vacuum renders the partnership vulnerable to setbacks and means that China will be even more tempted to capitalize on Europe’s internal divisions while Member States will feel less inclined to close ranks.

The Broader Horn of Africa: Peacekeeping in a Strategic Vacuum

This article analyses the challenges confronting the international community as it tries to deal with the conflicts in the Broader Horn of Africa through peacekeeping. The contention of the article is that peacekeeping efforts in the region are undertaken in a strategic vacuum, thus undermining efforts at resolving the conflicts. Peace operations deployed across the Broader Horn are not synchronized with the political processes, and this is exacerbated by five interrelated challenges: the lack of a political framework; the lack of consent; the issue of protection; the issue of overstretch; and US counter-terrorism policy. The article concludes by calling for the development of a strategic regional framework aimed at reconciling national, regional and international interests that are often in conflict. While deployment of peacekeepers may be part of that framework, it should not be a substitute for viable political processes.

The Changing Geography of Subregional Planning in England

Regional planning bodies throughout England are now in the early stages of preparing Regional Spatial Strategies (RSSs), which will succeed Regional Planning Guidance (RPG) as the frameworks guiding local development planning. This transition from RPG to RSSs is one outcome of the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004. Another outcome is the abolition of the Structure Planning function of English county councils, potentially resulting in a strategic vacuum in sub-regional planning. The Regional Assemblies (together with Regional Development Agencies and Government Offices) will need to address the subregional agenda, providing strategic leadership in what are often diverse and complex regional settings. The authors report on research undertaken on behalf of the South East England Regional Assembly and its partners. They examine both the changing policy context in this region, and the means by which a hitherto regional—and top-down—policy agenda is being ‘spatialised’ to address subregional diversity. In doing so, they also look at the move away from historic subregional boundaries, the redefining of ‘subregional’, and the shifting institutional ownership of the planning process at this particular tier.

Strategic Planning in Further Education

Since colleges were made responsible for strategic planning in 1993, managers in further education have encountered criticisms for not managing the process in a sufficiently business-like way and for being too business-driven in their approach. This article explores the experience of a group of principals who lead strategic planning, in the context of an analysis of a sample of strategic plans. It suggests planning takes place within a national strategic vacuum and that there is a diversity of types of plan and planning process. Plans based on achieving a competitive edge are in evidence, but so too are plans based on the need to build commitment in the face of severely constrained strategic choices, and driven by educational values. It is concluded that analysis and response to the planning of the sector should take better account of the diversity of purposes and practices within colleges.

School‐based planning:

With the introduction in 1988 of a system of site‐based management in England and Wales, schools are now operating in a radically altered planning context in which responsibility for strategic planning has been delegated from local education authorities (LEAs) to individual schools. Although school development planning has been widely adopted by LEAs in the UK as a rational approach to site‐based planning, indicative research suggests that strategic planning in a sample of schools operating in the newly decentralized environment has been slower to develop in practice than originally anticipated. Evidence of a lack of a coherent planning process in schools casts doubt on their ability to operate successfully in the strategic vacuum likely to be created if the gradual demise of LEAs continues. Suggests that if schools are to take full advantage of the opportunities offered by site‐based management to plan and sustain their own long‐term improvement and development, a thorough review may be needed by central government of their existing laissez faireattitudes towards site‐based planning, if there is not to be considerable long‐term damage to the national education service as a whole.