Strategic Surprise Research Articles

The Sherman Kent School of Intelligence Analysis and its Role in Improving the Analytical Performance of the US Central Intelligence Agency CIA

The main goal in current research that the analytical philosophy of Sherman Kent played a major role in developing the craft of intelligence analysis at the American Intelligence Agency, and we point out here that the organized analytical techniques that captured Sherman Kent’s interest are scenarios, competing hypotheses, devil’s advocate, and teams (A, B). ), red team, and low-occurrence/ high-impact probabilities. They all share an important focal point, which is analytical alternatives in order to cover unlikely hypotheses to ensure that no strategic intelligence surprise occurs. We believe here that the period in which Kent lived, in which he witnessed the surprise attack on Pearl Harbor, the Korean War, and the Cuban missile crisis, which is considered one of the largest intelligence failures in The history of the CIA had left him with a fear of strategic surprise, which was reflected in his philosophy of not ignoring unexpected threats and taking them into account in all the analytical methods he adopted.

Hamas-Israel War: A Brief Analysis of First Two Phases of War

At the end of 2023, the Middle East experienced some new challenges. Among these new challenges, one of the most important of them all is the Hamas-Israel war. After almost four months of war and no end in sight, there are now growing questions about whether Israel will be able to accomplish its stated goals in Gaza. The brutality of the Hamas’s attack on October 7, the extent of the cruel massacre, shocked both the Israeli society and foreign public opinion. To better understand the factors of Hamas's operational success, the strategic surprise attack on Israel from Gaza, on October 7, 2023, needs a thorough analysis to understand all its political, intelligence, and operational failures aspects. It goes without saying that many elements of Hamas's brutal but largely successful attack are still unknown. Taking this into account, this paper focuses on only three elements of the ongoing war. Firstly, based on the qualitative methodology of research, this study evaluates and highlights the political background of the bloodiest attack in modern Israel's history which happened on October 7, 2023. Secondly, using the research methodology of data collection and analysis, this paper seeks to answer the still open-ended question, how was Hamas able to attack a country which operates one of the best intelligence organizations in the world by an extreme surprise? Finally, by using the narrative and historical models of qualitative research and the available data, this paper focuses on assessing the first and second phases of the war. Furthermore, the study formulates conclusions regarding the expected directions of change in the Israeli security system and some aspects of regional security implications of the ongoing Hamas-Israeli conflict. The potential result of the current paper is to present the reasons for the ongoing Gaza conflict based on the historical background. In addition, it provides a primary analysis, based on currently available information, of the first two phases of the obviously protracted Hamas-Israel conflict for the benefit of the community of researchers, scholars, and academics.

Hamas-Izrael War, Short Analysis of First Two Phases of War

At the end of 2023, Middle East faced new challenges. Among these new challenges, one of most important is the Hamas-Israel war. To understand the factors of Hamas operational success, and the strategic surprise attack on Israel from Gaza, on October 7, 2023, needs a thorough analysis to understand all its political, intelligence and operational failures aspects. In this article three issues related to new Gaza war will be addressed. Firstly, this article highlights the political background of the bloodiest attack in modern Israel's history happened on October 7, 2023. Secondly, this article seeks to answer the question, how was Hamas able to attack a country with operates one of the best intelligence organizations in the world by an extreme surprise? Finally, based upon the available data, this article analyzes the first and second phases of war.

Killing to Cling to Power? The Dilemmas of Israeli Prime Minister

Hamas's strategic surprise attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, is not only a military and intelligence failure on the part of Israel, but it also casts doubt on the capacity of the Israeli Prime Minister to provide the security needs of Israelis. What this paper does is explore the complexities and dilemmas of Israel’s war on Gaza despite domestic pressure to halt the Gaza war to enable the release of hostages, the call on the coalition government to account for the needless deaths of Israelis on the fateful October 7, 2023 attack and the growing pressure abroad to respect humanitarian law of war in Gaza. The war nevertheless continues unabated while Hamas is ducking for cover with the multiracial captives. The multilevel demands on the Israeli PM and his right-wing coalition have ramifications on the regime’s legitimacy, a bleak future for the two-state solution, and the general implication of the war on global politics. This paper utilised the Diversionary Theory of War to explain the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza. The paper argues that Hamas attacked Israel to thwart the normalisation process between Israel and Saudi Arabia, while the Israeli prime minister is using the Gaza war as an alibi to boost his reelection bid and to divert the attention of Israelis from the toxic domestic politics to cling to power.

Strategic Surprise and Implications for State Defense

The article is based on a study carried out as part of the Long-Term Organizational Development Plan project by the Center for Security and Military-Strategic Studies of the University of Defense entitled "Armed Conflict". As part of the study, the issue of strategic surprise was analyzed and assessed, the aim of which was to find causal mechanisms and connections between the security of state defense and the phenomenon of surprise in the conditions of the 21st century. The article deals with the issue of surprise and its impact on state defense security. It describes strategic surprise as a principled aspect with implications and impacts on state defense. It examines the issue of surprise as a principle of military art in the context of contemporary strategic thinking.

Mass-casualty terrorism and strategic surprise in Mumbai and Paris: understanding the Islamist perspective

ABSTRACT The Mumbai and Paris attacks are representative cases of mass-casualty terrorism due to the number of casualties and the level of devastation they caused. This type of terrorism has often been the result of strategic surprise resuting from intelligence failure. In both India and France, security agencies were taken by surprise and failed to respond promptly. Although the concept of strategic surprise has been largely explored by Western scholars, there is an Islamist perspective that has not received any attention. The article claims that strategic surprise can be understood as a cultural particular leading to mass-casualty terrorism. Finally, it examines the implications for intelligence and deterrence which need to adapt accordingly.

The Yom Kippur intelligence failure after fifty years: what lessons can be learned?

ABSTRACT Extensive research has been published about the failure of Israeli intelligence in the Yom Kippur War in 1973, mainly in the context of flawed analysis and strategic surprise. Fifty years after the war, the current article uses an intelligence studies lens to describe major lessons which can be learned from this failure of early warning. Such lessons include the required focus of strategic intelligence on identifying change rather than continuity, the need for explicit analytical methodology beyond inductive reasoning, the importance of integrating assessment of adversary intentions and capabilities, the risk of over-reliance on raw information, and the need for a culture encouraging contrarian thinking.

Are Intelligence Failures Still Inevitable?

There is a paradox that accompanies intelligence failure. Drawn from the work of Richard Betts, one of the most influential scholars in the field of intelligence studies, this paradox is based on two propositions. First, there will always be accurate signals in the “pipeline” before a significant failure of intelligence. Second, intelligence failures are inevitable. Combined, these propositions motivate much intellectual activity in the field of intelligence studies: to devise effective ways to use available information and analysis to avoid failures of intelligence, especially those leading to strategic surprise. This article explores how scholars have addressed these propositions to answer the question: Are intelligence failures still inevitable?

PURPOSEFUL AND ADAPTIVE LEADERSHIP: Characteristics of Jokowi's Strategic Policies to Fight the Covid-19 in Indonesia

The pandemic of the Covid-19 has become a strategic surprise that called leaders of the world to make purposeful and adaptive decisions. In a pandemic characterized by VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, Ambiguity), the uncertainty and unpredictability of changes are the most visible characteristics. A good leader will be known from his/her capacity to handle this uncertainty and unpredictability with his/her strategic decisions to find creative solutions. The objective of this study is to make an observation on Jokowi’s political decisions during the Covid-19 pandemic in Indonesia. Did he represent characteristics of a purposelful and adaptive leader to find creative solutions amidst the pros and cons of the people during the Covid-19 pandemic? Accademic literatures on his strategic decisions such as the Large Scale Social Restriction, establishment of the Covid-19 Task Force, provision of health service centers, establishment of information centers, military/police mobilization, provision of socioeconomic protection, and his political decisions will be the sources of information on which the discussion about his leadership will be built. He presented himself as a leader who carefully consider the goals/targets, ways/methods, and means of achieving the targets. He showed the courage to make strategic decisions, was creative in problem-solving, and was always present in the midst of humanitarian disasters. His leadership is characterized by clear purpose to keep people’s well-being in the time of crisis with an flexibility to choose creative solution to the problem.

The Proactive Nature of Warning in Anticipating Crisis Situations

"Adequate use of warning can contribute decisively to avoiding or reducing major consequences in case of crisis situations. This paper intends to emphasise the contribution that strategic warning can have in the proactive development of the decision-making process. The paper analyses the way in which the issue of warning was approached by a number of experts in the field. At the same time, it is noted that paying adequate attention to medium and long-term analysis methods could contribute to an effective transition towards a proactive approach to warning, in order to avoid strategic surprise, adapt strategies and maintain competitiveness in the operational environment."

Caracterul proactiv al avertizării în anticiparea situaţiilor de criză

"Adequate use of warning can contribute decisively to avoiding or reducing major consequences in case of crisis situations. This paper intends to emphasise the contribution that strategic warning can have in the proactive development of the decision-making process. The paper analyses the way in which the issue of warning was approached by a number of experts in the field. At the same time, it is noted that paying adequate attention to medium and long-term analysis methods could contribute to an effective transition towards a proactive approach to warning, in order to avoid strategic surprise, adapt strategies and maintain competitiveness in the operational environment."

Caracterul proactiv al avertizării în anticiparea situaţiilor de criză

"Adequate use of warning can contribute decisively to avoiding or reducing major consequences in case of crisis situations. This paper intends to emphasise the contribution that strategic warning can have in the proactive development of the decision-making process. The paper analyses the way in which the issue of warning was approached by a number of experts in the field. At the same time, it is noted that paying adequate attention to medium and long-term analysis methods could contribute to an effective transition towards a proactive approach to warning, in order to avoid strategic surprise, adapt strategies and maintain competitiveness in the operational environment."

The underlying causes of strategic surprise in EU foreign policy: a post-mortem investigation of the Arab uprisings and the Ukraine–Russia crisis of 2013/14

ABSTRACT The study of why and when governments are caught out by strategic surprise has been a major occupation of intelligence studies, international relations, public administration and crisis management studies. Still little is known, however, about the structural vulnerabilities to such surprises in international organisations such as the European Union (EU). EU institutions themselves have not undertaken rigorous investigations or public inquiries of recent strategic surprises, instead relying on internal review processes. In order to understand the most common underlying problems causing surprise in the EU context, this paper adapts and tests insights from the strategic surprise literature. It elaborates a theoretical framework with five hypotheses about why the leadership of EU institutions has been prone to being caught by surprises in foreign affairs: limitations in collection capacity, institutional fragmentation of policymaking, organisational culture, member state politicisation, and cognitive biases arising from collective ideas and norms. These hypotheses are tested using a post-mortem approach investigating two significant strategic surprises: the start and spread of the Arab uprisings of 2010/11 and Ukraine–Russia crisis of 2013/14.

The Rise of ISIS as a Partial Surprise: An Open-Source Analysis on the Threat Evolution and Early Warnings in the United Kingdom

Was the emergence of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) as a regional and global threat a strategic surprise? If so, what made it so difficult to anticipate? Based on an open-source analysis about developments in Syria and Iraq between April 2013 and June 2014, this article’s main argument is that ISIS’ rise to power was a partial surprise. Namely, specialists were aware of the broader long-term developments that led to ISIS’ rise to power but were surprised by the short-term elements that led to its fast surge. This article is the first systematic analysis of the local, regional, and international developments related to ISIS’ surge through the lens of UK quality media and nongovernmental organization reporting. By advancing knowledge of how terrorist movements emerge and at what point analysts identify them as threats, this article advances our understanding of early warnings related to a terrorist threat and what possibilities there are to counter it early on.

The Trump Administration and the COVID-19 crisis: Exploring the warning-response problems and missed opportunities of a public health emergency.

This article examines the Trump Administration's inability to mount a timely and effective response to the COVID‐19 outbreak, despite ample warning. Through an empirical exploration guided by three explanatory perspectives—psychological, bureau‐organizational, and agenda‐political—developed from the strategic surprise, public administration, and crisis management literature, the authors seek to shed light on the mechanisms that contributed to the underestimation of the coronavirus threat by the Trump Administration and the slow and mismanaged federal response. The analysis highlights the extent to which the factors identified by previous studies of policy surprise and failure in other security domains are relevant for health security. The paper concludes by addressing the crucial role of executive leadership as an underlying factor in all three perspectives and discussing why the US president is ultimately responsible for ensuring a healthy policy process to guard against the pathologies implicated in the federal government's sub‐optimal response to the COVID‐19 crisis.

Israeli Intelligence, the Second Intifada, and Strategic Surprise: A Case of “Intelligence to Please”?

The challenge of this article is on deciding the two-decade-old controversy among Israeli intelligence scholars and practitioners over what caused the outbreak of the Palestinian uprising in October 2000. The question remains: Was it preplanned by the Palestinian Authority or a spontaneous response to the violence that ensued following the visit to the Temple Mount by Israeli opposition leader Sharon, which was seriously escalated by Israel’s excessive military response? Drawing on a theoretical framework of two types of strategic surprises, the article clarifies the controversy and explains the outbreak of what became a long and bloody Israeli–Palestinian confrontation.

Leaning on Legionnaires: Why Modern States Recruit Foreign Soldiers

Abstract Why do modern states recruit legionnaires—foreigners who are neither citizens nor subjects of the country whose military they serve? Rather than exclusively enlist citizens for soldiers, for the past two centuries states have mobilized legionnaires to help wage offensives, project power abroad, and suppress dissent. A supply-and-demand argument explains why states recruit these troops, framing the choice to mobilize legionnaires as a function of political factors that constrain the government's leeway to recruit domestically and its perceptions about the territorial threats it faces externally. A multimethod approach evaluates these claims, first by examining an original dataset of legionnaire recruitment from 1815 to 2020, then by employing congruence tests across World War II participants, and finally by conducting a detailed review of a hard test case for the argument—Nazi Germany. The prevalence of states’ recruitment of legionnaires calls for a reevaluation of existing narratives about the development of modern militaries and provides new insights into how states balance among the competing imperatives of identity, norms, and security. Legionnaire recruitment also underscores the need to recalibrate existing methods of calculating net assessments and preparing for strategic surprise. Far from being bound to a state's citizenry or borders, the theory and evidence show how governments use legionnaires to buttress their military power and to engineer rapid changes in the quality and quantity of the soldiers that they field.

Summaries

Summaries

The strategic surprise of Russian information operations on social media in 2016 in the United States: mapping a blind spot

ABSTRACT Despite many years of preparation for cyber conflict against US critical infrastructure and military forces, the US government and cybersecurity industry were unprepared for Russian information operations targeting the 2016 US presidential election. While the Russian campaign had many components, this article focuses specifically on the covert use of social media accounts and online properties impersonating Americans for the purpose of manipulation. This article addresses the strategic blind spot around Russian information operations and the technocentric Western approach to cybersecurity that led to it. The authors explore three fields contributing essential insights to the understanding of information operations on social media: cyber conflict and cybersecurity studies, Internet and Society studies, and the Information Controls literature within human rights scholarship. Each conceptualizes cyberspace differently, but a theory of information operations on social media will bridge conceptual gaps. The article concludes that despite this initial blind spot, great tactical progress in addressing information operations on social media has been made by the US government and large US social media platforms since the 2017 ‘reckoning’. A more robust and foundational theory of information operations on social media remains to be built, integrating and synthesizing concepts from the three fields described in this article. 1

Forecasting for Intelligence Analysis: Scenarios to Abort Strategic Surprise

A successful strategic surprise, whether in the military or business sector, can have critical significance both for the initiating organization (the “attacker”) and the organization under attack (...