Strategic Stability Research Articles

Nuclear Deterrence, Strategic Stability, Missile Defense

Some nuclear-free states believe that only the possession of nuclear weapons ensures real security. In reality, the choice is between solving the security problem by political means and following the path of North Korea, with all the ensuing consequences.

THE IMPORTANCE OF THE RUSSIA–INDIA–CHINA–ASEAN COOPERATION MECHANISM FOR A NEW WORLD ORDER

The article explores the potential of the Russia — India — China — ASEAN (RIC + ASEAN) cooperation mechanism as a transformative force in the international arena. Positioned as a pragmatic and far-sighted association, synergy between the actors can have a positive impact on regional integration, economic development and strategic stability. The author emphasizes the primary role of the Global South in the context of the transformation of the world order, compares the concept of Greater Eurasia with the Indo-Pacific vision of the United States, evaluates the importance of the RIC+ASEAN cooperation mechanism, and propose actual areas of interaction.

A Study on the Strategic Stability of Government and Steel Enterprises under Carbon Trading Mechanisms

A Study on the Strategic Stability of Government and Steel Enterprises under Carbon Trading Mechanisms

Інноваційні складові транспортних процесів вантажних перевезень у галузі автомобільного транспорту

Based on the analysis of scientific and technical information, it was established that road transport is one of the most important components of the country's economy. Transport connects different regions, enterprises and branches of the national economy, plays a huge role in the location of enterprises and factories and is an important condition for the rational location of production. Despite this, the use of road transport technologies at the current stage is associated with a number of serious problems that need to be solve at the technological level. The most important and promising direction in the complex solution of existing problems in road transport is the development and use of the latest innovative technologies, the rapid development of which creates practically unlimited prospects for road transport. The purpose of the article is to analyze modern technologies in the field of transport processes and determine the priority direction of the implementation of innovative activities in the field of motor transport services with a predictable and predictable result. Today dictates the need to determine the location of motor vehicles, valuable cargo, merchandise, etc. at any time. As a rule, such tasks are solving in the process of controlling the movement of moving objects, ensuring the safety of motor vehicles and their search in case of theft, as well as in the process of escorting vehicles and valuable cargo. The tasks of automated determination of the location of motor vehicles as part of systems of integrated quality assurance of services remain no less relevant, as before. Innovative activity in the field of motor transport services is an integral part of effective production and market activity, as it ensures the strategic stability of companies in the conditions of the rapidly developing service market. It is becoming obvious that the sector of motor transport services can provide a significant increase in employment today, and in the future become one of the "locomotives" of economic growth. As a criterion for the optimality of the use of innovative technology, which ensures an increase in the quality of the provision of motor transport services in the region, it proposed to use the generalized quality indicator Q, which is a functional dependence on departmental indicators Ki. An algorithm of the method of introducing innovations, which ensure the improvement of the quality of motor transport services of freight transportation, is proposed. As a result, of the implementation of innovative components, modern monitoring systems satisfy transport processes in terms of increasing the safety of freight transportation and preserving cargo, optimizing transport routes, reducing costs and improving the quality of providing motor transport services. The development of innovative technologies in freight transport processes aimed at implementing a monitoring system to identify synergistic opportunities for improving the quality of road transport services in a specific region. The given algorithm makes it possible to study in detail and display the objective properties of the quality system of transport processes, to develop a methodological toolkit for evaluating the indicators of the development of innovative opportunities aimed at improving the quality of motor transport services. With the help of this algorithm, a system is created that allows you to maintain local and integral quality indicators within the set values.

Contemplating Peace between India and Pakistan

India-Pakistan relations are at an inflection point with India’s dramatic revocation of Kashmir’s autonomy and its desired objective to transform the nature of the Kashmir conflict from a “bilateral” (involving Pakistan) to a “unilateral” status (excluding Pakistan). Pakistan, on the other hand, has embarked on a diplomatic offensive making the case against India’s majoritarian politics in Kashmir as detrimental not only to the Kashmiris but also to the strategic stability between the two rivals. This article reasons that India’s and Pakistan’s dominant zero-sum strategies—premised on winning while ensuring the other’s loss—are least likely to come to fruition. Given the present nature of ties, the way forward is for the two states to engage in a minimalist framework where mutual interests, as opposed to dominant positions, are put forth as a basis for engagement. Second, engagement more than agreement should be the short- to medium-term goal. Finally, any talk during this time on freezing the Kashmir conflict is least likely to bring any long-term dividends for peace and stability between the two regional adversaries.

The Process of Reducing Strategic Offensive Arms in Russian-US Relations: Russia’s Position

The article deals with the problem of reducing strategic offensive arms in Russian-US relations after the end of the Cold War. Particular attention is drawn to the approaches of the Russian Federation to its solution in the course of dialogue with the United States in the post-bipolar period. The reasons that forced the Russian leadership to conclude agreements with the United States in the field of strategic offensive arms are analyzed. It was revealed that the main difficulties of the disarmament process are related to the different vision of Moscow and Washington on the ways and methods of achieving the goals stated in the treaties. It is concluded that the Russian Federation and the United States lack trust in each other, which negatively affects the system of strategic stability and the reduction of nuclear potentials.

The Impact of Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine on East Asia

Although unfolding a continent away, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is detrimental to the strategic stability of East Asia, which is already riven by its own unresolved conflicts and territorial control disputes. The degradation of global security norms, the disruption to global energy supplies and the need to pick sides for or against Russia have each contributed to making East Asia’s security a more complex Rubik’s cube to manage. This article examines the implications of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Russia–China relations; Taiwan Strait’s stability; Japan’s defence policy; and the Korean peninsula. How and on what terms Russia’s invasion ends will carry another set of impacts and lessons for East Asia. In closing, the lessons of freezing conflicts in East Asia are applied to the emerging situation in Eastern Europe: of an unresolveable and unwinnable war that may become a lasting feature of European security, in the way that unresolved wars over Korea and Taiwan have become enduring realities in East Asia.

Cross-country analysis by the level of transport Market development and its adaptation to changing Russian economic conditions

The aim of the study is the process of formation of strategic stability in Russia. In today's competitive environment with the transition to import substitution, the commercial sector of the economy needs to be modernized. In order to ensure the efficiency of the functioning of the commercial sector of the economy (in Russia, the commercial sector of the economy accounts for 82% of all enterprises and organizations), it is proposed to strengthen business reputation — the development of service-oriented business processes for the commercial sector of the Russian economy in the context of strengthening industry 4.0–4.1 on a single platform. As a tool, it is proposed to conduct monitoring according to unified balanced indicators for a more transparent vision of the economy of Russian enterprises and industries. The prospect of the research is the study of specific tools and aspects, which is a kind of reflection of the current trends, which in any case expect a targeted and modern approach, namely, it will serve to take prompt anti-crisis measures by top managers to save Russian enterprises from bankruptcy at any stage of their life cycle and transition of the national economy into an innovative and productive inclusive one. The article is of interest to specialists in the field of regional and municipal management, for researchers, lecturers, graduate students, undergraduates and students economic and managerial universities.

Институциональный и ценностный подходы к анализу модернизации: потребность синтеза

Scholars studying modernization processes often engage in debates between those who follow institutional paradigms and those who emphasize values, with each camp strongly advocating for its approach. However, the complex interplay of modernization changes, involving technology, institutions, and sociocultural aspects, points to the natural connection between these approaches. This article intends to explore moder­nization issues through the works of prominent advocates from both perspectives. By analyzing texts written by the leading figures in both paradigms, the author shows that their research consistently converges on one key area: the sociocultural dimension of social development. The article highlights that the success of social deve­lopment relies on aligning technology, institutions, and culture, often referred to as society’s techno-humanita­rian balance. This balance, crucial for stability, harmonizes technological progress with cultural and psycholo­gical control. Special attention is paid to the issues of value configurations in society, which is not a uniform entity but a combination of various value groups. The ability to construct an institutional environment that meets modernization needs depends on the power balance within these groups. It is particularly important to highlight the problem of value group configurations within elites, as they have the most significant impact on the evolution of the society’s institutional structure. In institutional development, this holds particular significance: on the one hand, elites must seek consensus within society to prevent rejection or distortion of the introduced institutions. On the other hand, despite all the compromises they have to make in this process, elites must adhere to a shared path of modernization that matches evolving technological needs. Society members should have a high level of education not only in instrumental skills but also in the humanities, which will ensure strategic stability in socio-economic development.

U.S. missile defense policy in the context of great power competition

American missile defense in the late 1990s began to develop as a protection against the DPRK and Iran. Washington's official approach has evolved over twenty years. Currently, certain segments of the U.S. missile defense policy are officially linked with the confrontation against Russia and China. Even if the Russian or Chinese strategic nuclear forces, due to their size, will never be the main target for U.S. missile defense, the air components of the Chinese and Russian nuclear triads are already in the ‘crosshairs’ of U.S. missile defense. The overall strategy for the use of integrated air and missile defense is evolving. There are a number of features of the qualitative and quantitative development of regional missile defense systems to protect U.S. troops and their allies. The space component of missile defense, even without the creation of orbital missile defenses, is developing in a direction that can threaten strategic stability. The confrontation with North Korea and Iran because of the size of their missile arsenals makes it necessary to integrate offensive and defensive systems with each other. But it is precisely the confrontation with the Russia and China that makes the U.S. to unite offensive missiles, missile defense, air defense, and, in the long term, measures to protect their space assets through architecture of sensors of various types and battle management systems.

Challenges for the Conventional Deterrence of Pakistan in the Post 2019 Security Situations: Options and Choices

The study aims at discussing the changing dynamics of conventional deterrence in South Asia especially after the Pulwama-Balakot incident of 2019. The study is evaluated through Descriptive, Exploratory and Predictive data analysis approach. For elaborating different aspects of the study, both primary and secondary data was used. The study conducted in-depth interviews of the experts on the strategic and nuclear environment of the South Asian region. The study is divided in to three parts. In first part of the study, India-Pakistan relations since their independence in 1947 have been discussed. It was followed by discussing how Indian military strategic thinking against Pakistan has been changed from being defensive in Sunderji Doctrine (SD) of 1987 to offensive in the Cold Start Doctrine (CSD) of 2004 and then to the Land Warfare Doctrine (LWD) of 2018. The study then continues on discussing how India has crossed the international border line and conducted so-called surgical strikes inside Pakistani territory after a militant attack on the Indian paramilitary troops in Indian Occupied Kashmir (IoK) in 2019 and how Pakistan responded to the Indian aggression with a military operation codenamed “Operation Swift Retort”. The second part of the study is related to the Indian acquisition of modern sophisticated weaponry from the great powers like US, Israel, Russia etc. and the possible impacts of these weapons systems on the strategic stability of Pakistan. How the weapon systems like Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) system, Rafale fighter jets, Anti-Tank Guided Missiles (ATGM), Nuclear Submarine, P8-I Antisubmarine aircraft, Apache attack helicopter, Spy satellites and the armed Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) will pose threats to Pakistan, was main theme of the second part of the study. The possibility of any future war between India and Pakistan was also discussed in this section. Third section of the study was related to the possible options for Pakistan to counter the growing Indian conventional superiority. It was discussed that Pakistan should improve its long-range air defense system, improve the speed, lethality and range of its missiles, acquire or develop nuclear submarine and fifth generation aircrafts, improve Intelligence Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) capabilities along with the acquisition of attack helicopters and enhancing the endurance and range of armed UAVs to counter any future Indian aggression. Overall the Indian military modernization, the acquisition and procurement of modern sophisticated weaponry was discussed in the study. How negatively it will impact Pakistan and what options and choices are available with Pakistan to counter it, was the basic theme of the study. It was also thoroughly examined that Pakistan’s nuclear weapons are not for wars, but it’s the guarantor of peace in South Asia. It was also examined that Pakistan will never allow any aggression to disturb its strategic stability and will never hesitate to ensure its strategic stability and the basic sovereignty as a state at any cost, even by using its nuclear weapons as a last resort in case of failure of its conventional weapons.

India’s Quest for a Limited War-fighting Doctrine; Analyzing the Sundarji, Cold Start, Joint Doctrine Indian Armed Force and Land Warfare Doctrine

The strategic stability of South Asia predominantly depends on India and Pakistan. However, the Indian quest to indulge Pakistan in a limited war remains a constant threat to the strategic stability of South Asia. The dynamics of strategic stability have remained complex due to the hostile relations between India and Pakistan. India has remained in the process of doctrinal transformation since the 1980s. The Sundarji doctrine, Cold Start, Joint Doctrine (Indian Armed Forces), and Land Warfare doctrine all aim at launching an offensive against Pakistan. To supplement India’s ambitious aims in the region, India has frequently introduced innovative war-fighting doctrines. The Indian military's aggressive approach towards the region reflects India’s adherence to the principles of offensive realism. The theory of offensive realism promulgates the maximization of power by the dominant states. Therefore, it appropriately defines India’s limited warfighting aims in the region. The study provides a comprehensive understanding of prominent Indian war-fighting doctrines and their shortcomings. Consequently, it provides an in-depth knowledge of limited Indian war-fighting doctrines.

Editor's Note

Editor's Note

West Germany and NATO's Nuclear Force Posture in the Early 1960s (Part 1)

Abstract In the late 1950s and early 1960s, the member-states of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) debated whether a counterforce capability of hundreds of mobile medium-range ballistic missiles (MRBMs) under joint command in Europe was needed to reinforce U.S. extended nuclear deterrence. The conventional wisdom about this issue, echoing the official U.S. government position, has long been that deterrence was robust even without a joint missile force. According to this argument, U.S. policymakers tried to reassure NATO allies, particularly the West Germans, that sharing control of strategic nuclear weapons was unnecessary and unwise. The analysis presented here shows that the problem was not so straightforward. Many officials in NATO countries, particularly in the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG), viewed the MRBM debate not so much as a problem of nuclear weapons control but as a question of extended deterrence credibility and strategic stability, posing an all-or-nothing challenge to NATO.

The United States and Strategic Arms Limitation during the Nixon-Kissinger Period: Building a Stable International System?

Abstract The Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) played a key role in U.S.-Soviet relations in the early 1970s. This article reassesses some aspects of the SALT process in the light of important evidence that has become available in recent years. The key question is whether U.S. policy in the SALT negotiations was rooted in strategic stability theory—that is, in the idea that both major powers should work out an arrangement that would guarantee the survivability and effectiveness of both sides’ strategic nuclear forces, thereby reducing whatever incentive either of them might have to strike first in a crisis. The notion that U.S. policy on SALT was rooted in that theory is essentially a myth—although a myth that had important political consequences. The SALT process of the 1970s, as shaped by decisions made during the administration of Richard M. Nixon, helped pave the way for the hardening of U.S. policy toward the Soviet Union in the early 1980s—scarcely the result supporters of nuclear arms control had been hoping for a decade earlier.

Percepție, disonanță cognitivă și descurajare nucleară în era informațională. Posibile implicații pentru arhitectura de securitate euroatlantică în contextul noului concept strategic al NATO

"The February 2022 military aggression on Ukraine has sent shockwaves across European capitals as well as across the Atlantic. This “new normal”, namely a conventional war in twenty-first century Europe, is both hard to process and inherently ominous as to the future of the European security architecture and strategic stability on the continent. The aim of the article is to analyse the combined effects of technological advances in information/computing technologies and human cognition on strategic choices such as nuclear deterrence strategies. The paper is looking to address the proposed research questions through a cognitive psychology lens, with a particular focus on perception and cognitive dissonance. The plasticity of both the geopolitical environment and the information space present the optimal conditions for propagation of cognitive errors in human decision-making. The article is taking a closer look at what said vulnerability means for the Euro-Atlantic security architecture, most specifically for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization."

Percepție, disonanță cognitivă și descurajare nucleară în era informațională. Posibile implicații pentru arhitectura de securitate euroatlantică în contextul noului concept strategic al NATO

"The February 2022 military aggression on Ukraine has sent shockwaves across European capitals as well as across the Atlantic. This “new normal”, namely a conventional war in twenty-first century Europe, is both hard to process and inherently ominous as to the future of the European security architecture and strategic stability on the continent. The aim of the article is to analyse the combined effects of technological advances in information/computing technologies and human cognition on strategic choices such as nuclear deterrence strategies. The paper is looking to address the proposed research questions through a cognitive psychology lens, with a particular focus on perception and cognitive dissonance. The plasticity of both the geopolitical environment and the information space present the optimal conditions for propagation of cognitive errors in human decision-making. The article is taking a closer look at what said vulnerability means for the Euro-Atlantic security architecture, most specifically for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization."

Perception, Cognitive Dissonance and Nuclear Deterrence in the Information Age, Possible Implications for the Euro-Atlantic Security Architecture in the Context of a New NATO Strategic Concept

"The February 2022 military aggression on Ukraine has sent shockwaves across European capitals as well as across the Atlantic. This “new normal”, namely a conventional war in twenty-first century Europe, is both hard to process and inherently ominous as to the future of the European security architecture and strategic stability on the continent. The aim of the article is to analyse the combined effects of technological advances in information/computing technologies and human cognition on strategic choices such as nuclear deterrence strategies. The paper is looking to address the proposed research questions through a cognitive psychology lens, with a particular focus on perception and cognitive dissonance. The plasticity of both the geopolitical environment and the information space present the optimal conditions for propagation of cognitive errors in human decision-making. The article is taking a closer look at what said vulnerability means for the Euro-Atlantic security architecture, most specifically for the North Atlantic Treaty Organization."

Dialogue between the United States and Russia on the Issue of Strategic Stability after the Start of the Special Operation in Ukraine

Dialogue between the United States and Russia on the Issue of Strategic Stability after the Start of the Special Operation in Ukraine

THE ROLE OF CHINA AND RUSSIA IN THE ASIAN-PACIFIC REGION AND TRENDS IN CHINESE-RUSSIAN RELATIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE UKRAINIAN CRISIS

Aim. To study the role of China and Russia in the Asia-Pacific region and trends in the development of Sino-Russian relations in the context of the Ukrainian crisis. Research objective is to explain the current political interaction between China and Russia, to analyze the strategic goals of China, Russia and the United States in the Asia-Pacific region, and also to interpret the perception of China and Russia of the global political situation in the context of the Ukrainian crisis, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, in order to generalize the role of China and Russia in this region and the trends of Sino-Russian relations in the context of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.Methodology. Methods of comparative analysis of data contained in various sources, such as the literature method of research and content analysis, were applied. The methodological basis of the work is the empirical method of research.Results. Based on the analysis of the literature and the media, it was concluded that Russia plays an indispensable role in maintaining security and strategic stability in the Asia-Pacific region, and China has a decisive influence on the political, economic and security spheres of the Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, in the context of the Ukrainian crisis, Sino-Russian relations will continue to be based on national strategic interests and will hardly change due to the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the EU and USA provocations.Research implications. The materials of the article are new and correspond to current political hotspots, they have an auxiliary reference effect for relevant researchers.