Strategic Stability Research Articles

Сучасні тенденції розвитку державно-управлінської еліти в епоху постмодерну

Здійснено аналіз сутності та тенденцій розвитку державно-управлінської еліти в добу постмодерну, конкретизовано її зміст як сукупності осіб, наділених відповідними функціональними обов’язками щодо забезпечення життєдіяльності суспільства. Розкрито форми взаємодії з політичною елітою в контексті реалізації відповідних інституційних проектів, враховуючи специфіку різних національних традицій публічного управління, виявлено інституційно-функціональну й технологічну відмінність та тотожність між політичною та адміністративною елітою. Доведено, що в добу постмодерну простежується тенденція зростання ролі середньої ланки державно-управлінської еліти у формуванні та реалізації державної політики. Ідентифіковано певні закономірності функціонування державно-управлінської еліти в добу постмодерну.

Despite challenges, US-Russian nuclear arms control has its benefits

ABSTRACT The last treaty limiting US and Russian nuclear arsenals, known as New START, expires in less than four years, which is not much time to put into place a replacement arms control arrangement. With bilateral tensions soaring, particularly given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Washington and Moscow must hold formal negotiations on a New START follow-on arrangement sooner rather than later, so as to prevent miscalculation or escalation – and ensure strategic stability between the world’s two largest owners of nuclear weapons. The negotiations rely on strong political will from both sides, who will each bring to the table a different agenda requiring some concessions from the other. Divisive though the talks will inevitably be, the United States and Russia can reach agreement on crucial issues of concern, such as Russia’s new nuclear weapon delivery systems unveiled in 2018 and 2019.

Detecting emerging technologies and their evolution using deep learning and weak signal analysis

Emerging technologies can have major economic impacts and affect strategic stability. Yet, early identification of emerging technologies remains challenging. In order to identify emerging technologies in a timely and reliable manner, a comprehensive examination of relevant scientific and technological (S&T) trends and their related references is required. This examination is generally done by domain experts and requires significant amounts of time and effort to gain insights. The use of domain experts to identify emerging technologies from S&T trends may limit the capacity to analyse large volumes of information and introduce subjectivity in the assessments. Decision support systems are required to provide accurate and reliable evidence-based indicators through constant and continuous monitoring of the environment and help identify signals of emerging technologies that could alter security and economic prosperity. For example, the research field of hypersonics has recently witnessed several advancements having profound technological, commercial, and national security implications. In this work, we present a multi-layer quantitative approach able to identify future signs from scientific publications on hypersonics by leveraging deep learning and weak signal analysis. The proposed framework can help strategic planners and domain experts better identify and monitor emerging technology trends.

STRATEGIC REBALANCING: SINO-US INTERPLAY IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

For the last three-decade, the United is acting as a hegemon in the world. Largely it has established the rules of world politics with its allies. Even in some areas (an example is the Iraq war), it acted unilaterally to achieve its foreign policy goals. But with the rise of China in the last couple of decades the balance of power is changing in some regions. Especially in the South China Sea where the United States has many allies and also its troops, China is asserting its power. The US is no longer the hegemon states in the South China Sea to develop rules of the game. The United States is working passionately to rebalance China in the South China Sea. The results of this rebalancing strategy are still unclear but it has created vulnerabilities for regional peace. This paper will analyze the great powers (the United States and China) competition in the South China Sea. It will explain the effect of this rivalry on regional peace. Secondary data is used in the study. Data was collected from books, research papers, prominent news agencies, and speeches of world leaders.
 Keywords: Balance of Power, Deterrence, Strategic Stability, Soft Power, Freedom of Navigation, Second Cold War.

The Influence of NATO Regional Missile Defense on European Security

The problem of missile defense is considered by Russian researchers, first of all, as part of the strategic stability problem in relations between Russia and the United States. At the same time, the impact of regional missile defense (theater missile defense) on regional security remains largely unexplored. The US and NATO leadership continue to claim that Russia has deployed intermediate-range missiles in the European part of the country. As a response to this step, in addition to other measures of regional deterrence towards Russia, it is planned to strengthen NATO’s regional missile defense system. The purpose of this article is to determine the potential impact of enhancing NATO’s theater missile defense on regional security. The answer to this question is important for understanding the prospects for European security. This article provides a critical analysis of Western experts’ scenarios of actions of Russia and NATO around the Baltic countries the place and role of theater missile defense in these scenarios and compares the doctrinal guidelines of the United States and Russia regarding regional nonnuclear deterrence. There are situations in which NATO’s enhanced regional missile defense could strengthen regional deterrence, and there are situations where this is less likely. Taking into account the doctrinal guidelines of both sides, conclusions are drawn about the destabilizing potential of NATO’s regional missile defense enhancement and that, in strengthening regional stability, there is no alternative to arms control and transparency regimes.

Modelling and simulation of a four-group evolutionary game model for green innovation stakeholders: Contextual evidence in lens of sustainable development

Sustainable development goals (SDGs) proposed by the United Nations Sustainable Development Agenda in 2015 guide coordinated socio-economic development of all countries. They highlight the importance of environmental protection and renewable energy. Here, evolutionary game theory was used to build green technology innovation activities of the government, public, polluting enterprises, and non-polluting enterprises of a four-group evolutionary game model under environmental regulations to discuss and analyze the strategic stability of each game subject and the influence mechanism of strategic selections. Long-term impact of green technology progress on renewable energy consumption was investigated by simulation. The evolutionary trajectory of the game system of these stakeholders was studied through simulation analysis. Under different environmental regulations, polluting and non-polluting enterprises selected different strategies. Non-polluting enterprises easily accepted environmental regulations and conducted green technological innovation to promote SDGs. The effects of command-and-control and incentive environmental regulations were better in the short- and long-term, respectively. When the compensation intensity of an enterprise to the public was low or medium, the public selected supervision. Further, establishing public participation supervision mechanism could control non-green behavior and increase the renewable energy demand of polluting and non-polluting enterprises. Finally, suggestions were provided to promote green innovation and sustainable development from the perspectives of environmental regulation and collaborative innovation.

Transformation of Pakistan’s nuclear posture from minimum credible to full spectrum deterrence

After becoming a nuclear power in 1998, Pakistan pursued a policy of Minimum Credible Deterrence. The country transformed its policy from Credible Minimum to Full Spectrum Deterrence (FSD) in 2013. It is important to understand the reasons for this change. The study addressed questions: What were the factors which pressed Pakistan towards the transformation of its nuclear posture? Keeping in view FSD, is there any development in the nuclear force structure of Pakistan? How far FSD would ensure the credibility of the deterrent value of Pakistan’s nuclear forces? Transformation in the nuclear posture of Pakistan would be studied under the Theory of Nuclear Deterrence, which postulates that the sole purpose of a nuclear weapon is to stop an adversary from taking aggressive moves. The paper is aimed at evaluating the impact of the change in Pakistan’s nuclear posture on the overall strategic environment of South Asia. The study gives an objective analysis of the impact of FSD on Indo-Pak strategic interaction. The study concludes that FSD has successfully deterred the Indian Cold Start Doctrine (CSD) but remained unsuccessful in ensuring strategic stability. With the “New Normal,” India will continue to utilise its conventional superiority in its favour.

Managing the China, India and Pakistan Nuclear Trilemma: Ensuring Nuclear Stability in the New Nuclear Age

ABSTRACT The beginning of the nuclear age coincided with the beginning of the Cold War. The politics of the bipolar world, with two nuclear hegemons enjoying nuclear superpower status, shaped the nuclear order. At one level, it would appear to be a success because it helped create and sustain a nuclear taboo that has lasted for 75 years. However, the world has changed. The notions of “nuclear parity” and “mutual vulnerability” that made it possible to reduce strategic stability to nuclear stability and created the enabling conditions for bilateral nuclear arms control have given way to asymmetry with nuclear multipolarity. This has led to the unravelling of the old arms control mechanisms and a concern that the nuclear taboo may be eroding. The United States and the USSR had no territorial disputes; instead, their rivalry played out in the form of proxy wars. Today, nuclear rivals are often neighbours. Their disputes relate to issues of national sovereignty. Further, nuclear dyads have given way to trilemmas and nuclear chains. Technological developments generate further challenges for arms control. More usable nuclear weapons, dual use systems, a renewed offence-defence spiral with missile defences and hypersonics, and growing offensive cyber and space capabilities that make for nuclear entanglement demand a fresh look at arms control and nuclear stability. In the China-India-Pakistan trilemma, proposals have to take cognisance of the new political realities to break out of the cycle of mistrust and reduce risks of both misperceptions and miscalculation that could lead to inadvertent escalation.

Contextualizing Russian's Hypersonic threat: Perceptions, Motivations and Strategic Stability

Contextualizing Russian's Hypersonic threat: Perceptions, Motivations and Strategic Stability

INDIAN MILITARY DOCTRINE AND ITS IMPACT ON SOUTH ASIA’S STRATEGIC STABILITY

India’s aggressive military doctrine exploits the questionable space for a limited war under a nuclear overhang. This doctrine is designed to dilute, if not fully compromise, the notion of nuclear deterrence. Indian military high command has often boasted about waging a conventional war against Pakistan. India’s unilateral decision to repeal Kashmir’s special constitutional status has further exacerbated the volatility of the hitherto conflict-prone environment in South Asia. India’s doctrine manifests in the offensive deployment of S-400 missile systems along Pakistan’s border, further supplemented by the positioning of Dassault Rafale fighter jets. While it might temporarily alter the region’s strategic stability equation, Pakistan must rebalance this shift in its strategic stability. There is a need to review the notion of strategic stability as it applies to the region’s nuclear balance of power. This paper analyses India’s aggressive military doctrine fuelling its desire to wage a limited conventional war against Pakistan, examines the effects of growing military asymmetry, evaluates the impact of the short but swift military action in February 2019, and finally endeavours to determine the stabilizing impact of the nuclear deterrent on South Asia’s strategic stability. Bibliography Entry Ali, Muhammad, and Syed Mussawar Hussain Bukhari. 2022. "Indian Military Doctrine and Its Impact on South Asia’s Strategic Stability." Margalla Papers 26 (1): 74-84.

Evolution of National Approaches to Cyber Warfare

The latest information and communication technologies (ICTs) are increasingly considered by nation-states as a means to project their power and promote national interests. Over the past 20 years the major militarily signifi cant powers have created the doctrinal, logistical and organizational foundations for conducting military activities in the ICT environment and some states have already openly declared the priority of off ensive cyber operations, which increases the risks of crossing “red lines” and inadvertent escalation. The current situation related to the military-political exploitation of the ICT environment predetermines the urgent need for continuous analysis of current trends in this area and the search for approaches to reduce tension, which is the goal of this article. To achieve this goal, the fi rst part of the article considers in detail relevant doctrinal and strategic documents of the United States and other key countries and identifi es certain stages and aspects of evolution of their approaches. Further, the article considers and evaluates factors that infl uence military stability in the ICT environment, taking into account the previously obtained results. It is concluded that the identifi ed factors make the task of developing international frameworks to reduce the escalation in this area uncontested. This task is of particular urgency in the context of general international instability. Analysis of the current international environment in the relevant sphere allows to conclude that international community as a whole and the major players in particular (primarily Russia and the US) are aware of the danger of unintentional escalation in the ICT environment, especially when linked to strategic stability, and are ready to take steps towards developing the framework aimed at regulation and prevention of cyber confl icts. It is very actual now in new political reality but the question mostly is about fi nding the possible format.

The EU and European Countries’ Indo-Pacific Strategies: Security and Nuclear Factor

The Indo-Pacific region concept, having a significant place in the U.S. as well as their Asia-Pacific allies’ official discourse in the latest decades, is also penetrating the diplomatic terminology of both the EU and separate European nations. This paper features a review of how the Indo-Pacific strategies are designed as exemplified by the corresponding documents adopted by the said international organisation and some of its member states (including the former ones, such as the UK), particularly in the security realm and nuclear non-proliferation, given the importance of these factors for strategic stability in the global and regional dimensions. In terms of methodology, the article employs some elements of discourse analysis, content analysis, comparative political studies, and prognostic methods; the sources are represented by the EU and European countries’ official documents, as well as speeches made by politicians. Thanks to analysing the states’ strategies, main trends, which are also reflected in the common EU strategy, are singled out. The author draws a conclusion that the deterioration of the Ukrainian crisis will limit the opportunities for further development of the interregional ties between Europe and Asia.

From Offsetting to Emulation: A Neoclassical Realist Analysis of Russia’s Internal Balancing Strategies

In 2008, Russia began to implement its largest military reform since the creation of the Red Army in 1918. Previous attempts at reforms in 1992, 1997, and 2003 did not result in fundamental transformations to the country’s military. Why was the 2008 military reform successful while others were not? This article uses the comparative-historical method to identify the causal mechanisms between Russia’s level of external threat, state capacity, and internal balancing strategies adopted since 1991. It advances Neoclassical Realism’s systemic and unit-level variables by building on the long-established contributions from Strategic Studies and Historical Sociology instead of relying on other International Relations theories. It concludes that the success of Russia’s military reforms in the post-Cold War period depended on the simultaneous existence of three conditions: the possibility of disrupting strategic stability, its ability to extract and mobilize societal resources, and the presence of some event of proven ineffectiveness. Under scenarios in which only one or two of these conditions were present, Russia carried out only partial military reforms. The article sheds light on three often-neglected drivers of Russia’s military reform by Western analysts: its enduring emphasis on interstate competition, strategic stability, and mid-to-high intensity conventional warfare.

Evolutionary game analysis of opportunistic behavior of Sponge City PPP projects: a perceived value perspective

Sponge City Public Private Partnership (PPP) project is a significant step to promote the construction of resilient city and sustainable development. Private companies take advantage of information asymmetry and regulatory loopholes to take opportunistic behavior, which affects the project delivery quality and public interests. In order to reveal the decision-making mechanism of the main stakeholders, this paper constructs an evolutionary game model of private companies, citizens and the government from a fresh perspective of perceived value. First, the traditional payoff matrix is modified by combining Prospect Theory and Mental Accounting. Next, this paper analyzes the strategic evolution law and stability conditions of game players by replicated dynamic equation. Finally, Nanganqu project is used for empirical simulation to verify the effectiveness of this model. Results indicate that, (1) due to the complexity of the project and the bounded rationality of the participants, there is no evolutionary stable strategy in this game system. (2) The behavioral decision of participants is affected by perceived incomes and perceived costs. (3) Government punishment and reputation loss can effectively curb the opportunistic behavior. All above studies are expected to improve the management of Sponge City PPP projects, providing theoretical guidance for the government to make scientific decisions.

Ecological logistics as a tool for the development of fuel and energy complex enterprises: process-oriented aspect

The article considers the possibilities of greening the development of enterprises of the fuel and energy complex of Ukraine on the basis of the system formation of environmental management. Ecology is considered as one of the tools for greening the development of the enterprise and the formation of its competitive advantages, which will ensure strategic stability in a competitive space. As a tool for the practical implementation of the priorities of greening the development of the enterprise through the introduction of ecological system, a process-oriented approach is proposed. Emphasis is put upon the feasibility of allocating business processes of the enterprise with a focus on the main stages of its life cycle and building an appropriate model of their management. The essence and features of the ecological approach to management of development of the enterprise, system of advantages, methodological basis are considered. The main directions of the negative impact of the enterprises of the fuel and energy complex on the environment are characterized and the possibilities of its limitation through the system of ecological management, introduction of technologies of waste utilization are revealed. It is proved that the possibilities of effective realization of the advantages of ecology for the enterprises of the fuel and energy complex are created through the formation of integrated structures, namely energy and fuel companies. The potential advantages of vertically integrated energy fuel companies, which are created on the basis of integration of fuel and energy generating enterprises, are revealed. The directions and possibilities of waste utilization within the energy fuel company on the basis of creation of ecological management system are defined. The expediency of realization of process-oriented approach both to construction of ecological system, and creation of model of the integrated company on which basis the ecological mechanism provided is proved. Keywords: ecologization, ecological logistics, enterprise development, process-oriented approach, product life cycle, energy fuel company.

Missile Race in South Asia: Security Challenges for Pakistan in the 21st Century

The article assesses the nature of missile competition between India and Pakistan and how it impacts deterrence and strategic stability in South Asia. It also analyses how their respective ballistic and cruise missile programmes developed. Taking the action-reaction model of arms racing, it concludes that there is indeed such a dynamic at play between the two countries. The missiles competition is very much linked to the nuclear competition as well. India’s Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system also factors into the competitions, whereby Pakistan was forced to develop missiles that could saturate and defeat it. The missile and nuclear competition has an overall negative impact on deterrence and strategic stability in South Asia. Pakistan’s biggest security challenge is to achieve security and deterrence against a hostile India without falling into the trap of an economically ruinous arms race. 

Russian-American Relations in the Field of International Information Security

The article provides the results of a study to identify the specifics of Russian-American relations in the field of international information security (IIS) and the potential for its development in the digital environment in the 21st century. The author considers such aspects of the topic as the approach of Russia and the United States in the field of ensuring IIS; Russian-American relations in the field of IIS. Particular attention is paid to the consideration of the specifics of Russian-American relations on IIS issues, as well as to the extent to which they have an impact on modern international security in the period from 1998 to the present. The main conclusion of the study is that the IIS is an important component of bilateral relations between Russia and the United States, and the nature of relations on this issue has an impact on the international system, but it has a certain autonomy being inscribed in a broader geopolitical context. The author's special contribution to the study of the topic is the use of the case study method to identify the role of cyber sanctions within the IIS in general and Russian-American relations in particular. The novelty of the study lies in conducting a comprehensive analysis of the issues of IIS in the context of modern bilateral relations between Russia and the United States and the trends of the international system, including the study of the impact of new information and communication technologies on modern international security and strategic stability.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AFFECTING STRATEGIC STABILITY

Introduction of artificial intelligence(AI) in the nuclear weapons system exerts the stabilizing as well as destabilizing effect on strategic stability. AI enables informed decision making, development of more survivable delivery vehicle, physical and cyber security of nuclear assets, reduction in possibility of human error, surveillance of compliance of non-proliferation and disarmament treaties, integration of heterogeneous weapons for better performance, and underwater de-mining, etc. Simultaneously, by contrast, the threat to nuclear deterrence and nuclear assets from hypersonic glide vehicle leading to capability race, remote sensing over autonomous surface and underwater vehicles threatening invulnerable second strike capability, Patrov incident like situations possibility and requirement of human interference, instability inherent in threat detection with the deployment of AI driven more survivable and less controllable platforms including UCAVs, UAVs, UUVs, SLBMs, etc. are threatening the strategic stability. Which must be mitigated for long-lasting global peace through the development of universally accepted code of conduct in line with 1949 Geneva convention and Universal declaration of human rights 1948, etc, deliberation for risk reduction in regional as well as global stages, track two and 1.5 diplomacy, enabling human intervention in nuclear weapon launch system, commitment for No first use policy, complex interdependence etc.

Nuclear Posture and Technology Trends in South Asia and Ways Ahead

The dynamics of nuclear posture and weapons technology development in South Asia are diverse and rapidly shifting. Without real measures to manage these, the situation can spiral out of control. Threat perceptions and misperceptions among the leadership of South Asian nuclear weapon states affect doctrinal and force posture shifts in the nuclear domain. Moreover, third parties play an increasingly important role in these dynamics. There is an impetus for creating and implementing risk reduction and arms control measures to address these various factors and their impact on nuclear posture and technology development. Keywords: South Asia, nuclear weapons, strategic stability, arms control, nuclear proliferation, emerging technologies

Addressing Nuclear Challenges, Misperceptions and Geopolitics in South Asia

India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed neighbours, have vital stakes in maintaining strategic stability in South Asia. However, some disturbing shifts are now being observed in India’s approach towards the imperatives of strategic stability. Its aggressive pursuit of military modernisation and acquisition of emerging technologies, coupled with reported doctrinal shifts, such as pre-emptive counterforce strategy, pose a serious challenge to nuclear deterrence. The Indian leadership seems to have been emboldened by the US tilt towards India, manifested by the growing US-India strategic partnership. These developments have heightened Pakistan’s sense of insecurity. This essay seeks to assess the short-, medium- and long-term challenges to strategic stability in South Asia. It suggests a three-tiered framework of confidence-building measures at the bilateral level between India and Pakistan, the trilateral level among China, India and Pakistan, and the multilateral level whereby the major powers could facilitate conventional and nuclear confidence-building measures in the region. Keywords: South Asia, Strategic Stability, Nuclear Deterrence, Confidence-building Measures