Strategic Scenarios Research Articles

Формування стратегічних рішень при управлінні змінами на підприємстві

It is noted that the strengthening of the dynamics and uncertainty of the external environment significantly increases the requirements for the management of enterprises that represent complex socioeconomic systems. The purpose of the study is to define the directions for managing changes in enterprises and forming strategic decisions as to improving the efficiency of activities based on resource saving. The methodological basis of the article are methods of scientific knowledge that allow identifying the nature of change management in enterprises, the basic laws of modeling strategic scenarios for managing changes at enterprise. The used methods include: analysis, synthesis, systematization – to identify factors that determine the need to model strategic scenarios for managing changes in enterprises; abstraction – in order to form a theoretical generalization and conclusions. As result of the study, it is proved that enterprises need to initiate and implement changes in order to meet market requirements, increase value, maintain stability and provide a balanced economic growth along with further development. The algorithm for modeling the balance structure within terms of change management is substantiated. It is proposed, for the choice of strategy and the ability to develop scenarios for its implementation, to apply the J. Aubert-Krier’s method, according to which, in order to diagnose financial prerequisites, it will be advisable to assess the rationality of the structural distribution of assets and liabilities of the enterprise, which from the standpoint of movement and participation in the production and commercial process allows to evaluate the important elements of ensuring the activities of the enterprise. Consequently, the methodological support for the substantiation of the directions of change management at the enterprise on the basis of strategic decisions on the use of resources is improved, which will increase the effectiveness of activities and the related resource saving.

Sustainable Development at the Level of Industrial Areas: a Project Strategy Approach

The article deals with the study of methodological approaches to project management in solving problems of developing scientific and theoretical approaches to justify the use of project approach as a necessary and effective tool to strengthen the implementation of strategic scenarios for sustainable development of industrial regions in Ukraine. Research methodology. The research uses the approaches of general scientific methods for research, analysis, forecasting and project management, methods of determining criteria and quantifying the processes and stages of industrial, post-industrial and neo-industrial modernization. Findings. There was researched the development of scientific and theoretical approaches to the formation and justification of the project approach as a necessary and effective tool for strengthening the implementation of strategic scenarios for sustainable development of industrial regions in Ukraine. The application of the project approach as a methodological tool for implementing the processes of strategic scenarios formation for entering the trajectory of sustainable development of industrial regions in Ukraine is conceptually justified. It is determined that project and program management can be used in project management related to sustainable development of industrial areas. Practical significance of the findings. The developed conceptual approaches to using the project approach in the formation of strategic scenarios for sustainable development of industrial regions based on organizational, scientific and applied aspects of project management can be used for projects (project programs) transition to sustain= able development of regions focused on providing conditions that will allow the region have the necessary resources to ensure decent living conditions and increase the competitiveness of the economy. Keywords project, project approach, management, sustainable development of industrial regions, strategizing, sustainable development strategies, strategic goal.

On Multistage Multiscale Stochastic Capacitated Multiple Allocation Hub Network Expansion Planning

The hub location problem (HLP) basically consists of selecting nodes from a network to act as hubs to be used for flow traffic directioning, i.e., flow collection from some origin nodes, probably transfer it to other hubs, and distributing it to destination nodes. A potential expansion on the hub building and capacitated modules increasing along a time horizon is also considered. So, uncertainty is inherent to the problem. Two types of time scaling are dealt with; specifically, a long one (viz., semesters, years), where the strategic decisions are made, and another whose timing is much shorter for the operational decisions. Thus, two types of uncertain parameters are also considered; namely, strategic and operational ones. This work focuses on the development of a stochastic mixed integer linear optimization modeling framework and a matheuristic approach for solving the multistage multiscale allocation hub location network expansion planning problem under uncertainty. Given the intrinsic difficulty of the problem and the huge dimensions of the instances (due to the network size of realistic instances as well as the cardinality of the strategic scenario tree and operational ones), it is unrealistic to seek an optimal solution. A matheuristic algorithm, so-called SFR3, is introduced, which stands for scenario variables fixing and iteratively randomizing the relaxation reduction of the constraints and variables’ integrality. It obtains a (hopefully, good) feasible solution in reasonable time and a lower bound of the optimal solution value to assess the solution quality. The performance of the overall approach is computationally assessed by using stochastic-based perturbed well-known CAB data.

Sustainability risk and portfolio management—A strategic scenario method for sustainable product development

AbstractCompanies need to strategically develop their portfolio and find the balance between being proactive and passive in relation to sustainability. In this study, a strategic perspective based on backcasting from overarching socio‐ecological sustainability principles was used as a lens to understand how companies might adapt their product portfolios to avoid threats and exploit opportunities on increasingly sustainability‐driven markets. The study shows that sustainability performance, market success, and time are key areas to be considered in the product portfolio process to ensure short‐term profitability and long‐term competitiveness. A novel method was developed and tested in one academic group and two companies to explore how such a strategic sustainability perspective can support the product portfolio process in practice. The results indicate that the strategic layered double‐flow scenario method, including different time horizons, was supportive in identifying opportunities and avoid risks in the sustainable development process at the company.

Institutional Measures of Air Transport Safety Strategic Management at the Level of State Regulation

World leaders gathered at the United Nations (UN) and adopted the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. It is a plan of action aimed at achieving global sustainable development in economic, social and environmental areas, which ensures that no UN member state is left behind. The 17 sustainable development goals on the 2030 Agenda can be used as benchmarks for the coordinated development of UN member states. Aviation safety is an important component of the concept of general national security, the system of personal security, ecological and public safety and transport safety from external and internal threats. Maintaining an acceptable level of national aviation safety is a priority for the industry. The aviation transport is a part of the transport complex of Ukraine, which is an important component in the structure of the national economy and a link between all components of economic security to ensure the basic conditions of life and development of the state and society. The assessment of economic, technological, safety, social and ecological hazards is an integral part of all the logical blocks of the structural and functional scheme of strategic management of aviation safety in terms of sustainable development of the national economy. According to the concept of national aviation risk management developed by the authors, risk can be assessed as a mutual combination of hazarad, vulnerability and consequences. The application of this concept in relation to the air transport of Ukraine allowed to identify the main hazards, vulnerabilities, consequences and risks. The next step in the implementation of the concept is to develop institutional measures to neutralize threats in the field of aviation safety, which is actually a set of risk reduction measures for further sustainable development of the national economy. This article summarizes the hazards, vulnerabilities, consequences, risks, and institutional arrangements for strategic aviation safety management. Among the priority measures are: harmonization of national regulation of air transport with the requirements of global and regional levels, development of mechanisms for commercial protection of domestic air transport enterprises in the COVID-19 pandemic, implementation of strategic scenarios for sustainable development of air transport in Ukraine until 2030. The implementation of the proposed institutional measures will ensure an appropriate level of safety, efficiency and regularity of the national air transport of Ukraine.

Selection of strategy and mining system for Mokulaevskoe limestone deposit

Implementation of many investment projects connected with large mineral deposits across Russia is essentially impeded by under-developed transport and public infrastructure, inefficient decisionmaking risks and insufficient case study of strategic scenarios of mining process and mine development. New mining projects in Russia involve integrated optimization of mine planning and design in difficult geological and geotechnical conditions. The correct strategy and optimized technology selected for the mining process can ensure sustainability of a mine for a long time. This article describes an authors’ approach to designing a quarry and selecting a mining system. The optimized and effective development strategy is presented as the case-study of Mokulaevskoe limestone deposit. Alternatives of pit wall parameters and structure are presented as 3D visualization of northern Mokulaevsky site. The calculation data on work content and transport infrastructure parameters depending on the chosen mining system are given. The change in the stripping ratio as a function of the mining advance alternative is described. The advantages and disadvantages of the mining advance scenarios are defined. The approach to the design decision-making is assessed. The sound design of the pit wall working zone and the optimized strategy of mining advance in difficult geological and geotechnical conditions make it possible to ensure higher productivity of mining and handling machines, to reduce stripping ratio and to enhance mining efficiency.

Prospects for the development of the energy complex of the North-East of Russia

THE PURPOSE. To analyze scenarios for the development of the energy complex of one of the regions of the North-East of Russia for the period up to 2030 with a target vision until 2050. This will require an analysis of the current state of the energy complex; show the latest changes in the power supply system; propose promising areas for the transfer of electricity. METHODS. To assess the current state of the electric power industry, from the point of view of the most efficient use of natural energy resources and the potential of the energy sector of the economy, methods of collecting and processing statistical data were applied. For the technical assessment of the state of electric power facilities, analytical and logical- probabilistic methods for determining reliability were applied. To predict energy consumption, mathematical modeling methods were used with the construction of approximating polynomials. RESULTS. The article evaluates the strategic and moderate scenarios for the development of the energy sector of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) in modern conditions, taking into account the increase in the energy efficiency of the region's economy. The indicators of electricity consumption throughout the republic, the Western Energy District and the decentralized power supply zone were subject to assessment. Long-term forecasts made do not confirm the development of events according to a more stringent strategic scenario. At the same time, the results for the moderate scenario are fully correlated with both the current state of the energy sector and the prospects for its development. CONCLUSION. Analysis of the current state and assessment of scenarios for the development of the energy sector of the republic's economy showed an increase in the reliability of power supply systems when organizing a "ring" in the Western Energy District; increase in useful electricity consumption by 2030; increase in electricity production; changes in the structure of electricity production.

Prospects for the development of the energy complex of the North-East of Russia

THE PURPOSE. To analyze scenarios for the development of the energy complex of one of the regions of the North-East of Russia for the period up to 2030 with a target vision until 2050. This will require an analysis of the current state of the energy complex; show the latest changes in the power supply system; propose promising areas for the transfer of electricity. METHODS. To assess the current state of the electric power industry, from the point of view of the most efficient use of natural energy resources and the potential of the energy sector of the economy, methods of collecting and processing statistical data were applied. For the technical assessment of the state of electric power facilities, analytical and logical- probabilistic methods for determining reliability were applied. To predict energy consumption, mathematical modeling methods were used with the construction of approximating polynomials. RESULTS. The article evaluates the strategic and moderate scenarios for the development of the energy sector of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) in modern conditions, taking into account the increase in the energy efficiency of the region's economy. The indicators of electricity consumption throughout the republic, the Western Energy District and the decentralized power supply zone were subject to assessment. Long-term forecasts made do not confirm the development of events according to a more stringent strategic scenario. At the same time, the results for the moderate scenario are fully correlated with both the current state of the energy sector and the prospects for its development. CONCLUSION. Analysis of the current state and assessment of scenarios for the development of the energy sector of the republic's economy showed an increase in the reliability of power supply systems when organizing a "ring" in the Western Energy District; increase in useful electricity consumption by 2030; increase in electricity production; changes in the structure of electricity production.

Counteracting store brand introduction by the strategic incorporating of fairness concern behavior

PurposeResponding to the store brand (SB) introduction by the retailer, the manufacturer may adopt the strategic choice of incorporating the fairness concern behavior of the retailer. This paper aims to examine how the manufacturer can counteract the retailer’s SB introduction by strategically choosing to or not to incorporating the retailer’s fairness concern.Design/methodology/approachThis paper considers the SB introduction problem in a two-echelon supply chain consisting of one manufacturer and one retailer with fairness concern behavior. This paper resolves the pricing strategies under four strategic scenarios regarding fairness concern incorporation and SB introduction and examine the influences from the fairness concern on pricing strategies and profits. This paper further investigates the strategic choice equilibrium of the manufacturer and retailer on fairness concern and SB introduction decision.FindingsThe results show that the retailer can be better off by the introduction of the SB only when the acceptance degree of the SB is high enough. And whether the manufacturer should incorporate the retailer's fairness concern depends on the consumer's acceptance of the SB: Only when the consumer's acceptance is moderate, the manufacturer is able to counteract the SB by strategically not incorporating the retailer’s fairness concern behavior. Otherwise, the manufacturer cannot prevent the retailer from introducing the SB and can be better off by incorporating the retailer’s fairness concern behavior.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to the literature by examining whether the manufacturer can adopt the strategic incorporation of the retailer's fairness concern to counteract the retailer's SB introduction.

Long-term effectiveness of elderly health care voucher scheme strategies: a system dynamics simulation analysis

BackgroundThe elderly healthcare voucher (EHCV) scheme is expected to lead to an increase in the number of elderly people selecting private primary healthcare services and reduce reliance on the public sector in Hong Kong. However, studies thus far have reported that this scheme has not received satisfactory responses. In this study, we examined changes in the ratio of visits between public and private doctors in primary care (to measure reliance on the public sector) for different strategic scenarios in the EHCV scheme.MethodsBased on comments from an expert panel, a system dynamics model was formulated to simulate the impact of various enhanced strategies in the scheme: increasing voucher amounts, lowering the age eligibility, and designating vouchers for chronic conditions follow-up. Data and statistics for the model calibration were collected from various sources.ResultsThe simulation results show that the current EHCV scheme is unable to reduce the utilization of public healthcare services, as well as the ratio of visits between public and private primary care among the local aging population. When comparing three different tested scenarios, even if the increase in the annual voucher amount could be maintained at the current pace or the age eligibility can be lowered to include those aged 60 years, the impact on shifts from public-to-private utilization were insignificant. The public-to-private ratio could only be marginally reduced from 0.74 to 0.64 in the first several years. Nevertheless, introducing a chronic disease-oriented voucher could result in a significant drop of 0.50 in the public-to-private ratio during the early implementation phase. However, the effect could not be maintained for an extended period.ConclusionsOur findings will assist officials in improving the design of the EHCV scheme, within the wider context of promoting primary care among the elderly. We suggest that an additional chronic disease-oriented voucher can serve as an alternative strategy. The scheme must be redesigned to address more specific objectives or provide a separate voucher that promotes under-utilized healthcare services (e.g., preventive care), instead of services designed for unspecified reasons, which may lead to concerns regarding exploitation.

Economic risk assessment of the quality labels and productive efficiency strategies in Spanish extensive sheep farms

CONTEXTThe socio-economic decline of extensive sheep farming caused by its low profitability in southern European Union (EU) regions threatens marginal depopulated rural areas' survival. In the face of new future institutional and climate challenges, there appears to be an urgent need for strategies to improve economic performance. OBJECTIVEThis paper aims to evaluate the economic performance and risk of two alternative demand-oriented and productive efficiency strategies: i) protected geographical indication certification, and ii) increased ewe reproduction prolificacy. MethodBased on regional farm records and price data and a survey of 54 local farmers, we formulated a stochastic gross margin model to simulate and analyze four strategic scenarios (baseline, quality labelling, productive efficiency, and joint strategies) under two specific stressors, namely decreased lamb prices and increased feeding costs. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONSWe found that feeding costs constitute the main risk factor, whereas price instability has less influence. Our findings highlight improvements in performance under a quality scenario, albeit with higher vulnerability to price variability with respect to the baseline scenario. In contrast, the productive efficiency scenario performs much better in terms of average gross margin and reduced vulnerability to feeding costs, albeit with a larger variation for the expected outcomes. SIGNIFICANCEThe paper casts light on the vulnerability of the quality label under price risk, and suggests the potential for the joint implementation of both quality production and productive efficiency strategies, which could compensate for their respective weaknesses.

Capitalizing on Complexity in Modern Business Environments: A Network-Based Perspective for Projects and Organizations

Traditional approaches to design organizations are insufficient to withstand the constraints imposed by modern business environments that are in permanent transformation with a constant flow of information, interactions and behaviors of agents, and the non-linear relationship between resources and products. By building on the nature and dynamics of Networks, it is possible ideating organizational architectures and processes that capitalize on the complexity emerged from modern economies. These novel architectures have a significant potential to induce self-adaptation and co-evolutionary processes between agents, organizations and the external environment. The design of organizations able to navigate complex environments requires the adoption of a conceptual framework that accounts for the strategic characterization of the Network agents and the adoption of an open-systems perspective that guides the effective interaction with the external context. This allows optimizing information assimilation and knowledge production processes that will drive the ideation of strategic scenarios. As a result, the organization will increase its potential to synchronize adaptation with its business ecosystem and its readiness for strategic transformation.

Strategic European Integration Scenarios of Ukrainian and Polish Research, Education and Innovation Spaces

A comprehensive study was conducted in the direction of research and institutional support and comparison with the nearest neighbour - Poland, to determine the current state and justify strategic scenarios for Ukraine's integration into the research, educational and innovation spaces of the EU as a source of proactive sustainable innovative development. Analysis of the use of foresight technology to determine the possible future, create the desired image of the future and determine strategies to achieve it using methods developed in various research areas revealed that its application makes sense in determining long-term factors, trends and directions of national economies. That is, in foresighting, in contrast to forecasting, the emphasis is made on qualitative rather than quantitative results, which does not provide the expected targeted policy of the state, because it does not give clear, concrete results of actions - quantitative strategic benchmarks, monitoring which would control the process of these areas' development. The disadvantages of foresighting methods that limit its application are identified. Scientific substantiation of strategic scenarios of European integration of Ukrainian and Polish research, education and innovation spaces is based on the concept of sustainable development, which is grounded on applied systems theory, management theory and economic cybernetics and comprises the stages of identifying and strategizing. Identification is carried out taking into account the definition of the safe existence boundaries and simultaneous norming and integrated convolution of indicators and thresholds of education and innovation. Comparison on one scale of integrated indices of education and innovation makes it possible to carry out the goal-setting stage, identify possible strategic development scenarios and build the desired development trajectories, i.e., to implement the principle of strategizing "the future is determined by the trajectory into future." Thus, knowledge of the desired values of integrated indices in each year makes it possible, through their decomposition by the method of adaptive regulation from the management theory, to justify the values of indicators that provide the desired growth trajectory and achieve certain goals of research, educational and innovative spaces of Ukraine and Poland.

Galactosyldiacylglycerols: From a Photosynthesis-Associated Apparatus to Structure-Defined In Vitro Assembling

Being ubiquitously present in plants, microalgae, and cyanobacteria and as the major constituents of thylakoid membranes, monogalactosyldiacylglycerol (MGDG) and digalactosyldiacylglycerol (DGDG) make up approximately 52 and 26%, respectively, of chloroplast lipids. Thylakoid membranes harbor the photosynthetic complexes and numerous essential biochemical pathways where MGDG and DGDG play a central role in facilitating photosynthesis light reaction, maintaining chloroplast morphology, and responding to abiotic stresses. Furthermore, these galactolipids are also bioactive compounds with antitumor, antimicrobial, antiviral, immunosuppressive, and anti-inflammatory activities and important nutritional value. These characteristics are strictly dependent upon their fatty acyl chain length, olefinic nature, and stereoconfiguration. However, their application potentials are practically untapped, largely as a result of the fact that their availability in large quantity and high purity (structured galactolipids) is challenging. In addition to laborious extraction from natural sources, in vitro assembling of these molecules could be a promising alternative. Thus, this review updates the latest advances in elucidating biosynthesis paths of MGDG and DGDG and related enzyme systems, which present invaluable inspiration to design approaches for a retrosynthesis of galactolipids. More critically, this work summarizes recent developments in the biological and enzymatic syntheses of galactolipids, especially the strategic scenarios for the construction of in vitro enzymatic and/or chemoenzymatic synthesis routes. Protein engineering of enzymes involved in the synthesis of MGDG and DGDG to improve their properties is highlighted, and the applications of galactolipids in foods and medicine are also discussed.

BILLFISH CATCHES FROM OCEANIC RECREATIONAL FISHING IN THE ROYAL CHARLOTTE BANK, BAHIA, BRAZIL

The aim of this study was to analyze the oceanic recreational fishing in the Royal Charlotte Bank, state of Bahia, Brazil. Only data from an oceanic recreational fishing operator based in the municipality of Canavieiras, southern Bahia, were used, from 2012 to 2017. Overall, 103 fish specimens were caught and released, during this period, belonging to the following species: Makaira nigricans, Kajikia albida, and Istiophorus platypterus. Fishery operations occurred from October to March, with the highest catch in number in December (56.3%). The largest annual catch was recorded in 2013, with 39 individuals. The catch per unit effort ranged from 1.0 to 1.4 fishes per trip, with the highest value in December. Even though data presented here are partial, they can help to establish a strategic scenario for the fishing sector in Bahia, along with data from other fishing sectors (artisanal, industrial, subsistence and scientific).

ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ ИНВЕСТИРОВАНИЯ В ТОПЛИВНО-ЭНЕРГЕТИЧЕСКИЙ КОМПЛЕКС ЯКУТИИ С ПРИМЕНЕНИЕМ МЕХАНИЗМОВ ГОСУДАРСТВЕННО-ЧАСТНОГО ПАРТНЕРСТВА.

The article is devoted to the study of the investment process in the northern regions of Russia on the example of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). The relevance of the research topic is due to the fact that the most important factor in the development of any economy, including the economy of the northern regions of Russia, is investment in fixed assets. The aim of the study is to forecast investments in the fuel and energy complex of the northern region for the long term.The authors propose a methodological approach (algorithm) for predictive assessment of investments in the development of the fuel and energy complex of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). The analysis of investment activity in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for the period from 2005 to 2018was carried out. It was noted that the republic has all prerequisites for maintaining leading positions in terms of investment in fixed assets among the regions of the Russian Federation. According to indicator “Investments in fixed assets per capita” theRepublic of Sakha (Yakutia) in 2018 ranked 5th among other regions of Russia.The fuel and energy complex occupies a significant share in the structure of the gross regional product of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). The share of investments in the fuel and energy complex in the total volume of investments in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for the period from 2008 to 2018 shows an upward trend from 15.3 to 34.5 %. Forecast calculations of investments in fixed assets of the branches of the fuel and energy complex of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) have been made. Forecasted amount of investments required for the implementation of the Development Strategy of the Fuel and Energy Complex of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) for 2020–2032 will be 1,734.6 billion rubles in the moderate scenario and 2,317.9 billion rubles in the strategic scenario. The largest share in the structure of investments in the fuel and energy complex until 2032 is occupied by theoil and gas complex (59.3 %) and coal industry (15.5 %).In conclusion, it is noted that the main mechanism for implementing the energy strategy is public-private partnership. Its improvement and the search for new mechanisms are necessary conditions for the further development of the fuel and energy complex.

Research of the concept of a strategic scenario of integrated development business ecosystems of the region based on digital models

The article analyzes approaches to substantiating new high-quality solutions for businesses and territories based on the development of their business ecosystems. Business ecosystems are viewed as the interaction of individual stakeholders in the space of value formation including in territories or industries from manufacturing to retail in the domestic, national and international markets. The main goal of the work is to substantiate the possibilities for the integrated development of the region’s business ecosystems based on digital models of assessment and the formation of their product lines and integration into global supply chains. The main hypothesis is based on theoretical approaches and analysis of practice that modern businesses actively using digital technologies exhibit new network practices of interaction in the value space and in their integration with consumers, the community and government regulation form effective business ecosystems. The article was prepared within the framework of the Grant of the RFBR and the Government of the Krasnoyarsk Territory No. 20-410-242916 r_mk Krasnoyarsk.

The Power of Physical Embodiment in Helping Senior Leaders Discover Their Collective Wisdom

The purpose of this article is to share the profound generative learning from a dialogical workshop that included physical embodiment. The approach used was strategic dialogue with a 2 x 2 Boston matrix and five different strategic scenarios as floor maps. Generative learning and dialogue improved in comparison with previous approaches. Dialogue was enhanced by floor maps and physical embodiment. This paper appreciates how a collective wisdom approach to leadership dialogue lent itself to profound learning.

Prospects and Obstacles for Green Hydrogen Production in Russia

Renewable energy is considered the one of the most promising solutions to meet sustainable development goals in terms of climate change mitigation. Today, we face the problem of further scaling up renewable energy infrastructure, which requires the creation of reliable energy storages, environmentally friendly carriers, like hydrogen, and competitive international markets. These issues provoke the involvement of resource-based countries in the energy transition, which is questionable in terms of economic efficiency, compared to conventional hydrocarbon resources. To shed a light on the possible efficiency of green hydrogen production in such countries, this study is aimed at: (1) comparing key Russian trends of green hydrogen development with global trends, (2) presenting strategic scenarios for the Russian energy sector development, (3) presenting a case study of Russian hydrogen energy project «Dyakov Ust-Srednekanskaya HPP» in Magadan region. We argue that without significant changes in strategic planning and without focus on sustainable solutions support, the further development of Russian power industry will be halted in a conservative scenario with the limited presence of innovative solutions in renewable energy industries. Our case study showed that despite the closeness to Japan hydrogen market, economic efficiency is on the edge of zero, with payback period around 17 years. The decrease in project capacity below 543.6 MW will immediately lead to a negative NPV. The key reason for that is the low average market price of hydrogen ($14/kg), which is only a bit higher than its production cost ($12.5/kg), while transportation requires about $0.96/kg more. Despite the discouraging results, it should be taken into account that such strategic projects are at the edge of energy development. We see them as an opportunity to lead transnational energy trade of green hydrogen, which could be competitive in the medium term, especially with state support.

The impact of sludge return liquors on South African wastewater treatment plants

There have been three considerable shifts, in the past 20 years, in the conventional design and modelling of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs): (i) single unit process to plant-wide modelling, (ii) consideration of WWTPs as water and resource recovery facilities (WRRFs), and (iii) the need to simplify WWTP models to allow their intake by new stakeholders (i.e. plant operators, designers and decision-makers) who use these models for evaluation of WWTP optimisation strategies. The latter shift has prompted the debate about model complexity versus the required modelling purpose among modellers. In addition to the aforementioned shifts, there has been limited research on the impact of sludge recycling dewatering liquor on the overall plant performance, especially in the context of South African WWTPs. A simplified full-scale steady-state WWTP simulation tool was developed, based on principles of sound mass-balance stoichiometry and rate-limiting kinetics. This tool enables the user to analyse the impact of recycling the DWL on the plant performance through different scenarios. The strategic scenarios evaluated included the implementation of two side-stream treatment processes (STPs), namely BABE and struvite precipitation. The evaluation of various strategies was done using the benchmark simulation model (BSM) task group plant performance indices (i.e. effluent quality and operational cost indices, EQI and OCI, respectively) incorporated into the simplified steady-state full-scale models. The integration of STP in the WWTP layout results in better EQI and OCI. The composition of the DWL affects the choice of the STP to be used, i.e., for DWL from an AD treating WAS that is not P-rich the recommended side-stream treatment operation would be the BABE process rather than struvite precipitation.