Strategic Scenarios Research Articles

РОССИЙСКАЯ СТРАТЕГИЯ ПОСТАВОК ЗЕРНА НА МИРОВОЙ РЫНОК

The article is devoted to the strategy of Russian wheat production and export. It is aimed at conducting an economic analysis of the world grain market in 2022-2023. Problem areas of grain market development are identified and proposals for scenarios for the development of events on the world market are formed. The work establishes that the deterioration of the situation on the world market, in particular, with the supply of wheat and sunflower oil, largely depends on the protracted political conflict provoked by the policy of the Ukrainian leadership. It has been established that sanctions by Western countries and the policy of trade restrictions against the Russian economy will lead to a shortage of food, energy resources, an increase in prices by 10-30% and a drop in welfare by 15-25% in most countries dependent on food exports. Three strategic scenarios for the development of events are proposed: minor, medium and serious, taking into account how the continuation of the conflict situation between the countries could affect grain harvests and fluctuations in wheat export supplies to the world market, as well as disruptions in the world trade system, which is a negative trend for modern world food security.

Uncovering the impact of digital technologies on strategising: Evidence from a systematic literature review

AbstractAdopting digital technologies in different organizations has become a trend over the last decade, yet our understanding regarding impact of digital technologies on strategising needs to be more cohersive. This paper reviews existing research on how digital transformation intersects with strategic management to adress this gap. Specifically, the aim is to explore how the digital context changes strategising. Based on a systematic review of empirical evidence from 163 journal papers, we showcased the manifestation of strategising in the digital age in terms of strategic practitioners, practices and praxis. By consolidating these findings, a typology of strategic actions in the digital age is developed and discussed, highlighting the interplay among changes in strategy‐as‐practice parameters. This framework clarifies in strategic scenarios of digital transformation and identifies various strategic directions and actions. Overall, we argue that although digital transformation has created additional strategic options, it has yet to change the underlying assumptions of strategising in firms.

Research on the coupled evolution of LULCC and habitat quality in the Ganqing section of the Yellow River Basin based on multi-scenario simulations

IntroductionThis study focuses on the Ganqing section of the Yellow River Basin, exploring four land use scenarios: natural development, cropland protection, ecological protection, and rapid development. Given the ecological importance of this area, the research aims to evaluate how each scenario impacts habitat quality and land use sustainability by 2030.MethodsThe Future Land Use Simulation (FLUS) model and the Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model were applied to simulate land use for each scenario. A habitat quality pattern and coupling coordination degree model was used to assess the interactions between land use and land cover change (LULCC) and habitat quality under different scenarios.ResultsFindings show that over 70% of the Ganqing section of the Yellow River Basin is primarily grassland. By 2030, the ecological protection scenario is predicted to have the highest habitat quality, followed by the natural development, rapid development, and cropland protection scenarios. Between 1990 and 2030, the area demonstrates predominantly high or moderate coordination between land use and habitat quality. Spatial analysis reveals lower coordination values in the southeast and higher values in the northwest, with imbalanced recession zones distributed around valley basins.DiscussionThis study highlights the value of strategic scenario planning in enhancing habitat quality and promoting sustainable land management in the Ganqing section of the Yellow River Basin. The ecological protection scenario shows the most promise for balancing development with habitat preservation, underscoring the importance of adopting land use policies that support ecological sustainability in vulnerable areas.

Mujeres y narcotráfico: caso de Colombia

Despite the prevalence of drug trafficking in Colombia’s strategic scenario, little is known about the participation and role of women in this criminal activity. Hence, this paper provides a qualitative study on the participation of women and the different roles they can play in all the links of the criminal chain, from the production of narcotics to their commercialization and exportation. Through interviews and a review of relevant documents, this article seeks to determine the role of women in drug trafficking in Colombia and whether this role has diversified today. The fieldwork, in particular, indicates that women’s participation has indeed changed.

Feasibility of managing and organizing the problem of informal settlements a field study on informal areas in Najaf Governorate

The research aims to study the problem of informal housing in Najaf Governorate, present strategic scenarios to solve the problem, as well as choosing the low-cost construction strategy as an approved strategy in the research. The study included (9) areas in which informal housing units spread, namely (Al-Radhwiya, Al-Rahma neighborhood, Al-Najaf Sea depression, Al-Shawafi area, behind Al-Quds neighborhood, Al-Jadidah II slums, Al-Jadidah III slums, Tabuk neighborhood, Al-Barakiyah), affiliated to the Najaf Governorate Municipality Directorate. The researchers used the descriptive analysis method based on structured personal interviews in informal areas to identify the problem, in addition to using financial tools by calculating costs (fixed capital, working capital) and revenues to solve the problem by submitting a proposal to establish a low-cost residential complex. The study reached several conclusions, the most important of which is that efforts and procedures can be organized to reach a radical solution by choosing the optimal and fastest scenario, which is building low-cost housing units, and benefiting from the areas on which slums were built. The study recommended a set of recommendations, the most important of which is forming a government working group from the departments concerned with urban planning, the municipality, the Investment Authority, and departments related to infrastructure, to prepare a technical study and an action plan to establish a package of projects distributed across the governorate's areas. These projects are granted to the best investors in establishing low-cost housing units, and forming a subcommittee to evaluate the lands and re-use them in an optimal manner. In a way that achieves benefit for the city, whether by converting them into green spaces, parks, or investment projects that enhance commercial activity in the city.

Exploring the relationship between small and medium-sized enterprises innovation and organizational performance: a prospective study on the industrial sector in Ecuador

Purpose This study aims to explore the relationship between the innovation capacity and performance of manufacturing firms in the Ecuadorian pharmaceutical and chemical sectors using strategic foresight analysis. Design/methodology/approach From an extensive literature review, the fundamental variables related to manufacturing firms’ innovation for better performance were identified. Six hypotheses and actions were proposed related to financing, economic resources, capacities and research and development. Several scenarios were tested through foresight methodology to determine the more appropriate to be implemented by manufacturing firms over the next five years. Findings Scenario 01, where all the hypotheses resulted positive, has a 15.3% probability of occurrence. The results offer a relevant understanding of the behavior of the variables proposed as strategic actions for the sector. Originality/value To the best of the authors’ knowledge, foresight methodology is applied for the first time to analyze the manufacturing sector in Ecuador. The authors propose a plan of action from the strategic scenario identified in this study, supporting the development of the industrial sectors under study.

ESSENTIAL ASPECTS OF THE BALANCE BETWEEN SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ELEMENTS IN STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT

The article analyzes one of the most important aspects of making and implementing fateful decisions for the future - the relationship between subjective and objective at all stages of strategic management (SM) in the activity of the appropriate subject of management (SubM), more often identified as a Strategist. It is also noted that the personal experience of SubM is both a gold reserve of solutions verified by success, and a weight of ideas of the past that have lost their relevance, limitations and patterns that have a very indirect relationship to the reality of the present and even more, of the future. The key conclusions of the article concern the distinction between the mentioned useful experience and collateral meanings, on the one hand, and the irrelevant load of outdated skills, ineffective tools and abilities, on the other hand. Aspects of the Strategist's believe in his observations and their influence on his motivation to use the principles of critical thinking in controlling and decision-making for the future are explored as well. Confronting fears of the future is the focus of the article and reflects the peculiarities of Strategist’s reaction to the challenges of the event flow in the future. Separately, the article analyzes the phenomenon of developing “personal experience of the future” due to the fractal features of strategic scenarios within the framework of context-oriented approaches (CO-approaches) in SM.

Strategic behavior of large language models and the role of game structure versus contextual framing

This paper investigates the strategic behavior of large language models (LLMs) across various game-theoretic settings, scrutinizing the interplay between game structure and contextual framing in decision-making. We focus our analysis on three advanced LLMs—GPT-3.5, GPT-4, and LLaMa-2—and how they navigate both the intrinsic aspects of different games and the nuances of their surrounding contexts. Our results highlight discernible patterns in each model’s strategic approach. GPT-3.5 shows significant sensitivity to context but lags in its capacity for abstract strategic decision making. Conversely, both GPT-4 and LLaMa-2 demonstrate a more balanced sensitivity to game structures and contexts, albeit with crucial differences. Specifically, GPT-4 prioritizes the internal mechanics of the game over its contextual backdrop but does so with only a coarse differentiation among game types. In contrast, LLaMa-2 reflects a more granular understanding of individual game structures, while also giving due weight to contextual elements. This suggests that LLaMa-2 is better equipped to navigate the subtleties of different strategic scenarios while also incorporating context into its decision-making, whereas GPT-4 adopts a more generalized, structure-centric strategy.

Optimal Network Design for Municipal Waste Management: Application to the Metropolitan City of Rome

This work is part of the regional research project PIPER—Intelligent Platform for the Optimization of Recycling Operations, which aims to develop a network design model for waste collection in the metropolitan city of Rome, Italy. The goal is to enhance the strategic planning of treatment and disposal facilities by incorporating transshipment locations to improve the efficiency of waste collection. The motivation for this study stems from the stringent targets set by the European Green Deal to achieve near-zero emissions and the critical role of waste management in realizing circular economy practices. Methods: The problem is formulated as a mixed integer linear program (MILP) that includes constraints on vehicle allocation to shifts and driver requirements. An additional feature of the model is its ability to account for vehicle maintenance issues when deployed on consecutive shifts. Results: The model was tested against a real-world case study in Rome and demonstrated significant potential savings, with a reduction in total traveled distance exceeding 10%. The mathematical model was also used for evaluating strategic scenarios in a “what-if” analysis, allowing the municipal collection company to assess location options for depots, waste treatment facilities, and transshipment points, as well as to optimize the fleet composition and driver allocation during work shifts. Conclusions: This study presents a robust tool for strategic planning in waste collection operations, highlighting the benefits of using transshipment locations to improve efficiency. The findings indicate substantial potential for cost savings and operational improvements, making the model a valuable asset for municipal waste management planning.

Multi-criteria sustainability assessment of solid waste management in Jordan

This study comprehensively evaluates Jordan's municipal solid waste (MSW) management sector from 2022 to 2030, in alignment with Jordan Vision 2030. This study introduces new sustainability indicators and innovative waste management alternatives to address the challenges of rapid industrialization and population growth. Four strategic scenarios—1) recycling, composting, and sanitary landfilling; 2) recycling, anaerobic digestion, and sanitary landfilling; 3) incineration and sanitary landfilling; and 4) sanitary landfilling alone—were assessed against the business-as-usual scenario. Using multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and sensitivity analysis, this study evaluates net greenhouse gas emissions, annual operating expenses, revenue streams, and employment rates to measure environmental, economic, and social sustainability. The results indicate that Scenario 1 is the optimal scenario for integrating a material recovery facility (MRF) with a composting plant and sanitary landfill, achieving the lowest greenhouse gas emissions, annual costs, and employment opportunities. This study offers practical and sustainable solutions to Jordan's waste management challenges, provides novel insights through the developed MCDA and sensitivity analysis, and significantly contributes to sustainability research.

India-Japan Relations @ 70: From Civilisational to Strategic Partnership

The rapidly changing strategic scenarios in Asia have increased Japan’s ties with India over the last few years. Major global and regional geo-political shifts have taken place in the contemporary world, which include the rise of China, the US policy of rebalancing and pivoting to Asia, and the response of regional countries, evolution of a new security architecture in Asia, maritime security challenges in Indian and Pacific Oceans, nuclear tests by North Korea, tensions on account of territorial disputes in South China Sea and East China, the evolution of ASEAN into an ASEAN community. In these contexts, the two Asian democracies have made concerted attempts to intensify their relationship at various levels- economic, strategic and political. Though the two countries had never exhibited much keenness in each other’s priorities, a confluence of various factors such as structural, domestic and individual leadership have given a new push to the bilateral relationship in recent years. The present paper attempts to examine and evaluate the changing dimensions of bilateral relations between the two Asian democracies against the backdrop of the Indo-Pacific region's evolving security and strategic scenarios.

ТЕОРЕТИКО-МЕТОДОЛОГІЧНІ ПІДХОДИ ДО ВИЗНАЧЕННЯ РІВНЯ ЕНЕРГЕТИЧНОЇ БЕЗПЕКИ УКРАЇНИ

The article deals with theoretical and methodological approaches to determining the level of energy security, which is one of the most important components of the national security of the state. The evolution of theoretical foundations of energy security research is considered, and the definition of energy security is generalized. Based on the analysis of the main provisions of the Energy Security Strategy, it is determined that the Strategy needs to be revised and improved in connection with the military aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine. In order to determine the level of energy security of Ukraine, the article considers a universal methodology of identification and strategizing, which compares the state of different spheres and substantiates strategic scenarios of security development. The system of indicators for determining the level of energy security of Ukraine, which includes a reduced set of 48 indicators, divided into 7 groups, is studied. Such as threats, challenges, risks, resilience of the energy sector, energy supply, and subjects of energy security. Integral assessment methods are used to evaluate the level of energy security compared to threshold values of indicators. Based on these indicators, it was found that the energy sector of Ukraine has been in a state of danger since 2006. Short-term, long-term and strategic measures to improve the level of energy security of Ukraine are presented. The article states that energy security is one of the main components of national security. Today, Ukraine is in the article of energy danger, therefore, to improve the situation, integration with Europe, development of renewable energy, political reforms and electrification of transport are needed.

Adaptive strategic analysis models in a volatile market: case studies of today’s organizations

Adaptive models of strategic analysis are crucial in unstable market conditions for modern organizations. These models assist organizations in identifying and responding to the changing business environment, ensuring their sustainable development and competitive market position. The use of adaptive management allows companies to make flexible and informed decisions considering the impact of digitalization on business relationships. Factors such as leadership, culture, structure, and business strategy play an essential role in supporting organizational changes and adaptation. This paper discusses the fundamentals of adaptive management, including models of strategic analysis and strategic management. It covers the theoretical foundations of adaptive management, organizational structures with an adaptive management type, adaptive analysis models, and provides examples of companies that employ various tools. Additionally, a model of adaptive organizational management is developed, enabling companies to evolve in uncertain conditions. This model includes three subsystems: diagnostic of premises, selection of the optimal option, and implementation of the strategic scenario. The article concludes that adaptive strategic management is quite relevant in the context of variability and high environmental uncertainty; however, the strategy should not remain static.

Artificial intelligence as a chance

The article analyses the influence of artificial intelligence technologies on the sphere of design and artistic culture in general, as well as on creative processes in design, architecture and visual arts. The factor of artificial intelligence is considered not so much in the applied and instrumental sense, but as a global driver of cultural and technological revolution, which can change the entire civilisational pattern of mankind in the foreseeable future. Under these conditions, the creative sphere becomes the “polygon of meanings” where strategic scenarios of human interaction with artificial intelligence can be worked out. The author investigates the socio-psychological and cultural aspects of readiness and unreadiness of creative professional culture for this mission.

Developing “learning society” as a basic condition for perfect management education in China

The article analyzes the Chinese educational system historical formation as an instrument of human capital development. Using the historical retrospection method and hermeneutic method, the authors, based on the works of ancient Chinese thinkers, study the development and formation of management education as a core element of the Chinese educational system. Turning to Chinese prognosticism, the authors take the image of the Great Unity society, that is, social justice and equal opportunities for all citizens (“Datong”) as a basis for the future desired image, which throughout centuries of Chinese history show the universal value of education and the high status of a civil servant in such a society. The historical background of modern educational system formation has been described and one of the key problems of modern China – the gap between the huge demand for higher education in society and the difficulties in the employment of graduates – pointed out. Conclusions have been drawn about the main features of the public administration modern system, the Chinese education place in the international market of educational services and the possible contribution of Chinese public administration researchers to the solution of public problems both within the country and around the world. Strategic scenarios for the further development of Chinese society in the context of the Datong project have been outlined.

Proposal of rescue strategies and evaluation of their effectiveness in long-term flooded areas considering the effect of drainage processing

In response to the intensification of floods, the limits of rescue activities for people in need of rescue are being stressed. To solve such a situation, the request for residents to evacuate voluntarily has been considered, but the evacuation awareness of residents has not been improved yet. Therefore, it is necessary to enhance the performance of rescue operations and to provide more specific and critical evacuation instructions to those residents who cannot be rescued. In this paper, we propose a new rescue operation model that incorporates the effect of drainage treatment work in the flooded area, which is not a function of rescue operation. Specifically, we introduced new rescue strategies such as relocation of advancing bases and temporary transport sites, taking into account the fact that the inundated area changes. Based on the proposed rescue strategy, a full-scale rescue simulation was conducted, and it was confirmed that more residents could be rescued than with the conventional strategy. By comparing various strategic scenarios, we have identified the characteristics of rescue strategies that take wastewater treatment into account. The results also provide knowledge for future flood countermeasures, such as the importance of strengthening drainage treatment capacity and improving the reliability of its operation in order to take advantage of the strengths of rescue strategies, and the introduction of more focused countermeasures based on the specific residential areas and flooding conditions for those residents who cannot be rescued even with the above-mentioned measures.

Cooperation dynamics in multiple correlated games: A review

Individuals often engage in complex, non-isolated interactive environments. The interdependence manifested by strategic interaction environments across multiple dimensions or attributes has advanced the recognition of correlated games. The behavioral choices in one strategic scenario can be influenced by strategic attempts in another. How the correlation between different strategic environments affects the cooperation dynamics has raised much attention recently. In this perspective, we overview the latest progress that accounts for such cross-reciprocity. Firstly, we focus on the cases where individuals consecutively interact in environments with varying payoff structures, the values of which depend on the behaviors present in the previous game. Secondly, we pay attention to how strategic interaction affects the dynamics in multi-issue games in which individuals simultaneously interact in different environments. It holds significant implications for further examining the evolution of behavior from the perspective of correlations between different scenarios. Finally, we come up with some potential directions and points for further research.

The role of strategic scenarios in health security management: empirical evidence from Iraq in light of the COVID-19 pandemic

The role of strategic scenarios in health security management: empirical evidence from Iraq in light of the COVID-19 pandemic

The role of strategic scenarios in health security management: empirical evidence from Iraq in light of the COVID.19 pandemic

The role of strategic scenarios in health security management: empirical evidence from Iraq in light of the COVID.19 pandemic

СТРАТЕГИЯ «ЗЕЛЕНОЙ» РЕИНДУСТРИАЛИЗАЦИИ: УПРАВЛЕНЧЕСКИЕ И ФИНАНСОВЫЕ АСПЕКТЫ

The article discusses the arguments related to the financial features of managing "green" industrial reindustrialization. The stages of evolution of business models of industrial enterprises within the framework of transition to sustainable development and technological sovereignty of the Russian Federation are described. The concept of "green" industry is interpreted, and its essential characteristics are revealed. The dynamics of changes in the eco-investment index values is presented and the forecast of the use of energy efficiency technologies in certain sectors of the Russian industry in the period 2021-2023 is presented. The paper discusses the results of the implementation of "green" renewable energy projects and the introduction of industrial eco-technologies by Russian oil and gas companies in the context of Russia's adoption of the updated Climate Doctrine. The article offers an interpretation of the volume of budget allocations for decarbonization, the development of alternative energy sources and the transition to a closed-loop economy in the draft Federal Budget of the Russian Federation for 2024 and the planning period 2025-2026 in the context of state programs and federal projects. The main directions of industrial policy within the development of the strategic scenario for the "green" reindustrialization of the Russian economy are proposed.