Strategic Assessment Research Articles

PeerNomination: A novel peer selection algorithm to handle strategic and noisy assessments

In peer selection a group of agents must choose a subset of themselves, as winners for, e.g., peer-reviewed grants or prizes. We take a Condorcet view of this aggregation problem, assuming that there is an objective ground-truth ordering over the agents. We study agents that have a noisy perception of this ground truth and give assessments that, even when truthful, can be inaccurate. Our goal is to select the best set of agents according to the underlying ground truth by looking at the potentially unreliable assessments of the peers. Besides being potentially unreliable, we also allow agents to be self-interested, attempting to influence the outcome of the decision in their favour. Hence, we are focused on tackling the problem of impartial (or strategyproof) peer selection – how do we prevent agents from manipulating their reviews while still selecting the most deserving individuals, all in the presence of noisy evaluations? We propose a novel impartial peer selection algorithm, PeerNomination, that aims to fulfil the above desiderata. We provide a comprehensive theoretical analysis of the recall of PeerNomination and prove various properties, including impartiality and monotonicity. We also provide empirical results based on computer simulations to show its effectiveness compared to the state-of-the-art impartial peer selection algorithms. We then investigate the robustness of PeerNomination to various levels of noise in the reviews. In order to maintain good performance under such conditions, we extend PeerNomination by using weights for reviewers which, informally, capture some notion of reliability of the reviewer. We show, theoretically, that the new algorithm preserves strategyproofness and, empirically, that the weights help identify the noisy reviewers and hence to increase selection performance.1

The autocrat’s intelligence paradox: Vladimir Putin’s (mis)management of Russian strategic assessment in the Ukraine War

Autocratic leaders rely on intelligence machineries for regime and personal security. They often manage large, powerful, unaccountable organisations, which they hold close. But, despite their close relationship with - and reliance upon - intelligence, autocrats also frequently struggle to use it to enhance decision-making and foreign policy, and consequently suffer avoidable intelligence failures. This article argues that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 is illustrative of this broader, though understudied, pattern of autocratic mismanagement of strategic intelligence. The invasion was both spurred and accompanied by a catastrophic intelligence failure, the responsibility for which rests with Vladimir Putin, the arbiter of a system with limited capacity to offer dispassionate strategic assessments. His failure is characteristic of autocratic regimes assessing foreign developments, including Putin’s Soviet predecessors. This article contributes to the emerging scholarship on intelligence in autocratic regimes by examining Putin’s use of intelligence in the Ukraine War in the context of the broader literature on intelligence and decision.

A mathematical framework for regional hospital case mix planning and capacity appraisal

This article considers current capacity issues in health care and the development of quantitative techniques to facilitate a high-level strategic assessment of hospital activity within a region. In providing that assessment, a variety of decision problems are foreseen, and we test the notion that it is useful to provide decision support for those. To achieve that support, several optimization models are developed and tested. In theory the presented models may help health care planners organise hospital resources and activity better, to treat more patients. The first model that we propose identifies a maximal caseload that meets the patient type proportions specified in a regional case mix imposed by a planner, executive or manager. The second model identifies how spatially distributed demand can best be met amongst the different hospitals, such that travel distance and unmet demand are minimised. The third model identifies how individual hospitals can jointly achieve their goals with the help of outsourcing. Each of the models has been implemented and tested on some demonstrative examples of a smaller nature, before a larger study is presented. Our case study demonstrates that appropriate data can be collected, and the proposed decision models can provide a rational appraisal of regional capacity and utilization.

ASSESSMENT OF THE COMPETITIVENESS OF ORGANIZATIONS TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE STRATEGIC POTENTIAL

The purpose of the study is to create a methodology for strategic assessment of the competitiveness of organizations. Methodology. Research methodology is based on general scientific methods: analysis and synthesis; systematic, logical and comparative and strategic analysis; sample surveys; multifactor modeling; graphical method. Reference, statistical and regulatory materials were used on the researched issue. Two groups of competitive analysis and assessment methods are used: qualitative and quantitative. Originality/value of research. Among the existing methods of assessing the level of competitiveness of organizations, the authors emphasize the integral method, the algorithm for calculating the integral indicator of competitiveness of organizations using the multiplicative method was proposed and the necessary system of individual indicators was formed. Theoretical justifi cations are presented, an algorithm for calculating the integral indicator of competitiveness based on the strategic indicators of production and fi nancial activity of organizations is given. Forecasts allow to realize the possibilities of strategic planning and development of effi ciency indicators of organizations, which directly aff ect the increase in the level of competitiveness. In this case, the method of multivariate regression analysis is used. Findings. Creating an analytical basis for the creation of strategic plans of the organization and the development of those indicators, which directly aff ect the increase in the level of competitiveness.

Strategic Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Production of Some Selected Crops: Evidence from 2021 Cropping Season in Katsina State, Nigeria

Aims: The purpose of this paper is to assess the impact of climate change on crop production in the state in the year 2021.
 Study Design: Cross-sectional survey design.
 Place and Duration of Study: All the existing 34, Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Katsina State, and the research was conducted between October 2021 and March 2022.
 Methodology: Data was gathered via questionnaires administered to farmers’, employing Village and Block Extension Agents’ as enumerators. A multi-stage sampling technique was employed. The first stage involved classifying the state into three ecological zones. The second stage comprises random selection of three villages from each 34 LGAs to give (102 villages). The third stage was accomplished, based on the lists of farmers (26,589) frame, obtained from Katsina State Agricultural and Rural Development Authority (KTARDA), twelve thousand (12,000) farmers were selected proportionately for the study, using systematic random sampling technique.
 Results: The results indicated that male and youthful age dominate production respectively (78%) (54). large proportion (95%) fall within formal to post primary education and also, more than two-third (69) had no extension contact and highest (35%) obtained income from #300,001- #450,000. The findings on impact of climate change on crop production showed that (648,300 hectares) cultivated land and 633,950 tons (63,400 bags) of crops were lost. The analysis further unveiled that among the three ecological zones of the state, Sahel Savannah had the most devastating effect of losses, at both cultivated land (292,200 hectares) and crop yield (267,100 tons). More so, the result portrayed that amongst the assorted crops produced in the area, millet, groundnut, cowpea, and sorghum were the major crops affected by climate change scourge.
 Conclusion: Climate change is real and its manifestations are becoming alarming progressively, hence urgent steps need to be taken to avert the menace. It is recommended that farmers be educated on climate change aspects in respect to crop production and research station should develop more seeds adaptable to a given circumstances. Government should ensure accurate estimation of climate to facilitate other stake holders’ early preparation.

Bayesian inference modeling to rank response technologies in arctic marine oil spills.

Marine oil spills have a detrimental effect on aquatic systems. Yet, it is challenging to select appropriate technologies in the Arctic because of limited logistics support, inclement weather conditions, and remoteness, and limited research has been conducted in this direction. This article suggests a method to rank the oil response technologies, including mechanical recovery, chemical dispersant, and in-situ burning, for use in Arctic oil spill risk assessment and preparedness planning. The proposed Preference Learning based Bayesian Inference Modeling offers data-driven ranking of systems by learning a label function and considers factors such as ice covered sea areas, cold weather, and spill volume. A data generation system is developed to produce numerous oil spill scenarios, using a state-of-the-art engineering tool. Results demonstrate that the model, while simple, can efficiently and accurately select the best available technique, making it suitable primarily for marine pollution preparedness and response planning in strategic risk assessments.

A case study for a transformational festival creation in Lourinhã, Portugal

Abstract This research aims to evaluate, select, and validate strategic alternatives for implementing a transformational festival proposal in the municipality of Lourinhã, Portugal. The methodological model investigates the historical context, the classical festival themes, and the transformational festival’s characterisation through literature review and an exploratory interview with a major British stakeholder; the market potential through randomised inquiries representative of the Portuguese population; the contextual strategic assessment through a focus group with local stakeholders; and verifying the possibility of validating the concept of a festival design based upon these premises, through an interview with a major national stakeholder and three short interviews. As a result, we characterised transformational festivals, confirmed consumer profile key indicators, and validated a concept design with a hybrid strategic approach, essential to developing a disruptive, attractive, and marketable concept. The originality of the research is related to the return to the origins that these festivals highlight, as opposed to digital trends. The discrepancy between the paradigmatic importance of transformational festivals and their acceptance was highlighted. The research was limited by the lack of stakeholders’ acceptance of participation in the qualitative research.

Cancer care for Ukrainian refugees: Strategic impact assessments in the early days of the conflict

BackgroundThe invasion of Ukraine by Russia in February 2022 has resulted in destruction of healthcare infrastructure and triggered the largest wave of internally displaced populations and refugees since World War Two. Conflicts in transitioned countries such as Ukraine create new non-communicable disease (NCD) challenges, especially for cancer care for refugees and humanitarian assistance in host countries. In the early days, rapid attempts were made to model possible impacts. MethodsBy evaluating open source intelligence used in the first three months of the conflict through snowball search methods, we aimed to address: (i) burden of cancer in Ukrainian population, specifically considering translating to the refugees population, and its cancer care capacity; ii) baseline capacity/strengths of cancer systems in initial host countries. Moreover, using a baseline scenario based on crude cancer incidence in Ukraine, and considering data from UNHCR, we estimated how cancer cases would be distributed across host countries. Finally, a surveillance assessment instrument was created, intersecting health system’s capacity and influx of internally displaced populations and refugees. Findings and conclusionsThe total new cancer patients per month in pre-conflict Ukraine was estimated as 13,106, of which < 1 % are paediatric cases. The estimated cancer cases in the refugee population (combining prevalent and incident), assuming 7.5 million refugees by July 2022 and a female:male ratio of 9:1, was 33,121 individuals (Poland: 19284; Hungary: 3484; Moldova: 2651; Slovakia: 2421; Romania: 5281). According to our assessments, Poland is the only neighbouring country classified as green/yellow for cancer capacity, i.e. sufficient ablility to absorb additional burden into national health system; Slovakia we graded as yellow, Hungary and Romania as yellow/red and Moldova as red.

A Decision Support System for Project Portfolio Management in Construction Companies

Project portfolio management requires a systematic process that comprises assessment of portfolio risk and expected profitability, as well as strategic fit of individual projects with company objectives. After a needs analysis based on literature findings and surveys with experts, in this study, a process model and a tool, COPPMAN (COnstruction Project Portfolio MANagement), were developed to support project portfolio decisions in construction companies. COPPMAN was developed in collaboration with construction professionals. Different from previous studies, it incorporates a portfolio risk and strategic fit assessment model considering project dependencies and integrates knowledge of previous, on-going and potential projects to estimate value of alternative project portfolios. COPPMAN was implemented in a construction company and evaluated as a useful tool due to its features such as knowledge integration, forecasting of portfolio profitability and recommendation of strategies as well as its visualization features. Research design and findings can be used for development of similar tools in other project-based industries.

Precision Medicine Approach to Cochlear Implantation.

In the early days of cochlear implantation (CI) surgery, when the types of electrodes were limited and the etiology of sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL) was not well understood, the one-size-fits-all approach to CI held true, as in all other fields. However, in the era of personalized medicine, there have been attempts to associate CI performance with the etiology of SNHL and to establish customized surgical techniques that can maximize performance according to individual cochlear dimensions. Personalized genomic-driven assessments of CI candidates and a better understanding of genotype-phenotype correlations could provide clinically applicable diagnostic and prognostic information about questions such as who, how, and when to implant. Rigorous and strategic imaging assessments also provide better insights into the anatomic etiology of SNHL and cochlear dimensions, leading to individualized surgical techniques to augment CI outcomes. Furthermore, the precision medicine approach to CI is not necessarily limited to preoperative planning, but can be extended to either intraoperative electrode positioning or even the timing of the initial switch-on. In this review, we discuss the implications of personalized diagnoses (both genetic and nongenetic) on the planning and performance of CI in patients with prelingual and postlingual SNHL.

Efficiency of application of the concept of intensification of commercial efforts (sales concept of marketing) at the enterprise

The article examines the structure of the company's product sales channels, defines the main economic indicators of the company's activity by types of products, which are sold through various product sales channels. The assessment of the conceptual nature of the enterprise's marketing activity was carried out in order to improve the concept of intensification of commercial efforts or the sales concept of marketing, and the results of a strategic assessment of the direction of the enterprise's development were summarized. The results of the study showed the problems faced by producers in the field of selling agricultural products. Decisions made in the field of product promotion consist of choosing a sales system, sales form and distribution channels. Enterprises form their sales concept of marketing based on various approaches, which is confirmed by the studied detailed structure of the company's product sales channels. It was determined that the basis of the enterprise's production and sales concept should be a marketing program, which is built on certain directions and positions that allow enterprises to function successfully on the market. The end result of the outlined direction of development of the enterprise's marketing, which the subjects of market relations follow in today's market conditions, is the chosen concept of management, in particular, the concept of intensification of commercial efforts. The solution of the scientific problem takes place in the study and generalization of the theoretical and practical tasks of the formation of economic measures regarding the economic justification and effectiveness of the creation of organizational and economic measures aimed at improving the sales concept of marketing. The purpose of the article is to clarify the theoretical issues of economic substantiation and the effectiveness of creating organizational and economic measures from the plan of improving the sale of products of agricultural enterprises. When writing the scientific article, the following tasks were set: to evaluate the current state of the production and marketing activities of agricultural enterprises; to develop specific proposals aimed at the effectiveness of creating organizational measures with the provision of improvement of the intensification concept of commercial efforts. Keywords: marketing, sales, sales channels, sales concept of marketing, concept of intensification of commercial efforts, sales channels, enterprise development strategy.

Strategic assessment for managing the requirements of sustainable urban development for cities, a case study of the city of Boussaada

Strategic assessment is an important tool and means for achieving sustainable urban development, as it is a scientific approach used to crystallize the developmental priorities and goals of cities, and to identify programs and projects capable of achieving these goals within a certain period of time, in line with the current and future aspirations of the population, taking into account the available resources and potential obstacles. The practical framework of the research included a review of the requirements of sustainable urban development, which contains a set of proposals for it, through the application of its evaluation in a strategic evaluation method, based on a developed reference tool proposed by the researcher and with it. Multiple scopes, which makes it possible to understand the performance of the city and determine the conditions for its sustainable urban development, and also identifies weaknesses, strengths and imbalances in the way cities behave in their application of the requirements of sustainable urban development. This tool or specification was designed by the researcher and incorporated the Delphi method In the selection of criteria, the second method is Gap analysis Which was applied to the city of Boussaada, and the results were as follows, the actual matching percentage of the recipe was 4.46%, Which indicates the existence of a non-conformity gap of 95.54%, which indicates the existence of a clear and large gap for the city of Boussaada, which is very limited, divided according to the four sections of the standard, and accordingly, after diagnosis and examination, it achieved a conformity rate of 8%, with a record size of the gap 92%, As for management and vision, it achieved a matching percentage of 7%, and accordingly, the size of the gap reached 93%, and the tools and means achieved a matching percentage of 2%, and the size of the gap was 98%. While the actions and procedures recorded a matching rate of 1%, accompanied by a gap of 99%, all this indicates that the city of Boussaada It suffers from shortcomings in its management methodology for the requirements of sustainable urban development according to the stages of preparing its plans for this, as many factors that have important effects on the sustainability of the plan in the medium and long term are neglected, and therefore it is closer to a traditional development plan that is unable to accommodate the rapid changes it is going through and the challenges it faces, which constitutes a major challenge in achieving sustainable urban development.

Development of the PRISM Risk Assessment Method Based on a Multiple AHP-TOPSIS Approach

The PRISM method is a risk assessment approach that focuses on hidden-risk identification and ranking. The combined AHP-PRISM method was created for strategic assessments based on pairwise comparisons. The PRISM and AHP-PRISM methods have remarkable visual decision support and control functions that make them useful in practical problem solving. However, the methods can be successfully applied with the same factor weights. To eliminate this significant disadvantage and enable an in-depth analysis of the alternatives based on the ideal best and ideal worst solutions, AHP-PRISM was integrated with TOPSIS in this study. As a result, the novel AHP-TOPSIS-based PRISM method can be configured more extensively for practical decision-making problems than the previous PRISM approaches. In addition, the novel method supports the ideal best and worst analysis of the alternatives without losing its ability to focus on identifying hidden risk. The method was tested on data related to strategic incident groups of incoming logistics business processes at a nuclear power plant.

Стратегическое развитие венчурных фондов в России

Venture funds are an element of the infrastructure that supports innovation. They make a significant contribution to the development of the national innovation system, as well as increase industrial competitiveness and high-tech production. This article describes the long-term strategic priorities for the developmentof domestic venture funds. The research relied on the method of regression analysis, as well as on the theoretical and practical concept of strategizing developed by Professor V.L. Kvint and adapted for the venture capital market. These methods made it possible to analyze the global and national strategic trends in the development of venture funds. The analysis of strategic documents provided a strategic assessment of the effect of venture capital and government R&amp;D expenses on various indicators of the Russian economy. It also revealed the role of public and private fundings as strategic multipliers of innovative activity. The data obtained allowed the authors to formulate the strategic priorities for the development of venture funds in Russia.

Green sustainability balanced scorecard—Evidence from the Taiwan liquefied natural gas industry

Currently, companies work to improve their performance at the economic, environmental and social levels, make large contributions to sustainable development, and use strategic assessment tools to evaluate their sustainability performance. In addition, the Taiwan government has gradually paid attention to the use of liquefied natural gas (LNG), but the sustainable development of the LNG industry is in its early stage, and the associated companies lack the relevant knowledge and skills to manage and measure their performance in achieving these sustainability goals. Therefore, this study intends to propose an assessment framework, the green sustainability balanced scorecard (GSBSC), for the LNG industry as a reference for creating sustainable strategies and adds a green operational object to extend the SBSC for theory development. Through the fuzzy Delphi questionnaire of experts, this study found the following. 1. Green operational and environmental objects are relatively important constructs of the GSBSC in the LNG industry. 2. ‘Operating risk and cost management’, ‘customer satisfaction’, ‘product management and recycling mechanism’ and ‘greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions’ are relatively important indicators in their associated objects. This research preliminarily aims to provide relevant and refined advice for the Taiwanese LNG industry and extend the SBSC to the GSBSC. • Develop the green sustainability balanced scorecard (GSBSC) for evaluation. • Green operational and environmental objects are more significant of the GSBSC. • Apply fuzzy Delphi technique to identify the important indicators of the GSBSC. • Define strategy map of implementing GSBSC. • Examine Taiwan LNG industry based on developed GSBSC.

A Strategic Assessment and Evaluation of the Major Determinants of Work-Life Balance for University Student Workers in Lebanon

This research aims to explore the major determinants of work-life balance (WLB) for university student workers in Lebanon. The proposed relationships consist of causality between each of the variables of working hours, proximity to employment, proximity to university, workload, study leave, leaving early, work from home, study at work, and flexible working hours on one hand, and work-life balance on the other. Employing a deductive approach, this study presents one main research question and quantitatively tests 11 hypotheses using a sample of 300 workers studying in both Lebanese University and Notre Dame University. The findings show that work-life balance significantly varies according to demographic factors. As for variables, the number of courses was found to have a significant negative causal relation with work-life balance, while the ability to obtain a study leave and leaving early have a significant positive causal relation with work-life balance. This research adds quantitative empirical proof that number of courses, study leave, leaving early significantly affect “work-life balance” of today’s private and public university student workers in Lebanon. Therefore, the findings offer a theoretical enrichment to the topic of work-life balance in general, and open way for new research to expand internationally as well as locally.

Preventing Environmental Crime and Human Vulnerability through the MGPOC Framework: The Case of Zimbabwe’s Lithium Industry

Based on a research in progress, the ‘micro-geopolitics of organised crime’ (MGPOC) framework examines how and why organised crime groups (OCGs) around the globe develop illicit economies associated to natural resources. The foundational premise underlying the MGPOC is that OCGs vie for contested resources-rich territories, transport routes, and access to national and international markets in order to secure strategic hubs of illicit wealth, influence and power, thus creating conditions for large-scale violence primordially at a local scale. The present methodology article represents a step forward in the research agenda. Its purpose is to test—and refine—the MGPOC as an actionable early-warning tool aimed to prevent OCGs from creating illicit economies out of environmental commodities. The article is also keen on highlighting the nefarious ramifications of environmental crime to human vulnerability, particularly to democratic governance, environmental sustainability and citizen security. Because a concrete case study is central to this strategic intelligence assessment, the article analyses lithium in Zimbabwe—Africa’s largest producer and world’s sixth—and the variables that might enable organised crime to tap into this industry, especially as this metal becomes increasingly critical in the energy sector’s transition towards a low-carbon future.

Strategic Assessment of Cyber Security Contenders to the Brazilian Agribusiness in the Beef Sector

The current international commercial structure places Brazilian Agribusiness in constant conflict to protect its interests before other nations in the global market. Technological innovations are used in all stages from the simplest production tasks, up to the design of negotiation tactics at high-level affairs. This paper has the objective of finding Brazilian contenders in the beef market with cyber capabilities and commercial interest to act in favor of their interests. To construct such a list, a review of the literature on Threat and Cyber Threat Intelligence is presented, followed by a background presentation of how embedded technology is in nowadays agriculture and supply chains in general, and the real necessity for those sectors to be seen as critical infrastructure by governments in general. Also as background information recent cyber attack cases and attacker countries are shown. A Step-by-Step multidisciplinary method is presented that involves the extent of international trade, the interest on specific markets, and the intersection of country cyber capacity index. After applying the method and criteria generated a list of five contender countries. The method may be replicated and/or applied, considering adequate data source assessment and following specifics of each sector.

Collaboration between academic and non-academic actors in EIA: Reflections from Western Australia

The authors' experiences of collaboration between academic and non-academic actors in EIA in Western Australia are described. A distinction is drawn between collaborations that are natural science-focused or EIA process-focused, direct or indirect, and occurring in the context of a specific EIA process or at the system level over a longer time period. Anecdotal examples are provided of each. It is concluded that natural science-focused collaboration is relatively common and well established, while academic actors who research the EIA process itself are typically only invited to contribute to more unusual EIA case studies, such as strategic assessment or sustainability assessment. There is, however, opportunity for EIA researchers to play the role of ‘brokers’ of EIA knowledge and to influence EIA practice at the systems level over time through presentations, training courses, participation in system reviews, and working with community groups participating in EIA. There is potential to strengthen collaboration in Western Australia, for example through the increased use of co-design of EIA guidance and tools. Relationships between academic and nonacademic actors are essential to meaningful collaboration in most forms.

Pediatric Clinical Research Networks: Role in Accelerating Development of Therapeutics in Children.

BackgroundRecent decades have seen many advances in policy and legislation that support the development of drugs used by neonates, infants, children, and young people. This review summarizes the characteristics and performance of networks capable of conducting studies needed to meet regulatory requirements and make advances in pediatric drug development.MethodsDescription of network goals and capabilities by network leaders.ResultsIn the United States, Europe, Japan, and Canada, clinical research networks have been organized to meet the needs of biopharmaceutical and academic sponsors for timely access to high-quality sites, as well as to provide advice about drug development with regard to strategic and operational feasibility. Each network addresses the specificities of its context while working toward shared principles including standards and timelines; alignment of goals and processes, while not disturbing arrangements for conducting trials that work well; wide geographic coverage; all age groups and pediatric conditions; sources of funding; sites that compete on performance; performance monitoring for benchmarking, and opportunities to optimize the allocation of resources; and education and training for network members. Facilitation in interactions among these networks is based on a single point-of-contact for each; similar approaches to strategic and operational feasibility assessment, and site selection; and collaborative approaches to education and training.ConclusionWithin five years, clinical research networks will support the needs of biopharmaceutical and publicly funded pediatric drug development through locally appropriate and globally interoperable approaches.