Shift Of Storm Tracks Research Articles

Ocean Wind Wave Climate Responses to Wintertime North Atlantic Atmospheric Transient Eddies and Low-Frequency Flow

AbstractAtmospheric transient eddies and low-frequency flow contributions to the ocean surface wave climate in the North Atlantic during boreal winter are investigated (1980–2016). We conduct a set of numerical simulations with a spectral wave model (WAVEWATCH III) forced by decomposed wind fields derived from the ERA-Interim reanalysis (0.7° horizontal resolution). Synoptic-scale processes (2–10-day bandpassed winds) are found to have the largest impact on the formation of wind waves in the western midlatitudes of the North Atlantic along the North American and western Greenland coasts. The eastern North Atlantic is found to be influenced by the combination of low-frequency forcing (>10-day bandpassed winds) and synoptic processes, contributing up to 60% and 30% of the mean wave heights, respectively. Midlatitude storm track variability is found to have a direct relationship with wave height variability along the eastern and western margins of the North Atlantic, implying an association between cyclogenesis over the North American eastern seaboard and wave height anomalies in the eastern North Atlantic. A change in wave height regimes defined using canonical correlation analysis is reflected in changes to their wave height distribution shapes. The results highlight the important role of transient eddies for the ocean surface wave climatology in the midlatitudes of the eastern North Atlantic both locally and through association with cyclone formation in the western part of the basin. These conclusions are presented and discussed particularly within the context of long-term storm track shifts projected as a possible response to climate warming over the coming century.

Are Changes in Atmospheric Circulation Important for Black Carbon Aerosol Impacts on Clouds, Precipitation, and Radiation?

AbstractBlack carbon (BC) aerosols strongly absorb solar radiation, but their effective radiative forcing and impacts on regional climate remain highly uncertain owing to strong feedbacks of BC heating on clouds, convection, and precipitation. This study investigates the role of large‐scale circulation changes in governing such feedbacks. In the HadGEM3 climate model BC emissions were increased to 10 times present‐day values while keeping sea surface temperatures fixed, to assess the rapid adjustments to increased BC absorption. The BC perturbation led to an effective radiative forcing of 2.7 W/m2 and a 0.13‐mm/day reduction in global precipitation. There were also large shifts in the spatial distribution of tropical convection, increased low cloud over oceans, and a weakening and poleward shift of midlatitude storm tracks, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. In a parallel experiment, horizontal winds were nudged toward meteorological reanalyses to deliberately suppress circulation responses while allowing changes to the thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere. Surprisingly, BC had approximately the same impact on global‐mean radiation and global precipitation in the nudged experiment, even though regional changes in clouds and convection were not fully captured. The results show that large‐scale dynamical responses to BC are important for regional impacts but have a limited role in determining the effective radiative forcing and global‐mean climate response. The rapid adjustments of clouds, radiation, and global precipitation were primarily a response to increased radiative absorption and atmospheric stability. This implies that short nudged simulations may be sufficient to assess absorbing aerosol impacts on global‐mean radiation and precipitation.

Winter Extratropical Cyclones as a Potential Driver of a Long‐Term Decline of Bacterial Production in the Sargasso Sea Near Bermuda

AbstractAnalysis of plankton data sets from the Bermuda Atlantic Time‐series Study site (31°40′N, 64°10′W) demonstrates a long‐term decreasing trend of marine heterotrophic bacterial production (BP) in winter (November–February) over the past 24 years (1989–2012). We propose winter extratropical cyclones (storms) as a potential driver of the observed BP trend. Stormy winters were characterized by significantly enhanced phytoplankton biomass and productivity as well as organic carbon pools, as storms induce deeper convective mixing and increased nitrate fluxes into upper mixed‐layer. Counter to expectation, BP was lower by 24% due to storm‐mediated entrainment of cold water into upper mixed‐layer. The frequency of storm‐impacted months has increased over time, driven by a decline of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Our findings suggest that a NAO‐induced southward shift of winter storm tracks contributes to the decreasing BP trend, via temperature‐dependent decoupling of bacteria from phytoplankton, ultimately impacting carbon fluxes and cycling near Bermuda.

The Sensitivity of the Jet Stream Response to Climate Change to Radiative Assumptions

AbstractComprehensive climate models exhibit a large spread in the magnitude of projected poleward eddy‐driven jet shift in response to warming. The spread has been connected to the radiative response to warming. To understand how different radiative assumptions alone affect the jet shift in response to warming, we introduce a new clear‐sky longwave radiation hierarchy that spans idealized (gray versus four bands; without or with interactive water vapor) through comprehensive (correlated‐k) radiation in the same general circulation model. The new hierarchy is used in an aquaplanet configuration to explore the impact of radiation on the jet stream response to warming, independent of mean surface temperature and meridional surface temperature gradient responses. The gray radiation scheme produces a split jet and its eddy‐driven jet shifts equatorward as climate warms, whereas the storm track shifts equatorward then poleward. Including four longwave bands leads to a merged jet that shifts slightly poleward with warming, and the storm track shifts monotonically poleward. Including interactive water vapor makes the poleward jet shift comparable to the jet shift with comprehensive radiation and interactive water vapor. These jet and storm track differences are linked to the radiation response of the stratospheric temperature, the tropopause height, and the meridional gradient of the radiative forcing to warming. Dynamically, the equatorward jet shift with the gray scheme is consistent with reduced wave reflection on the poleward flank of the jet, whereas the poleward jet shift with the other schemes is consistent with increased eddy length scale that favors equatorward wave propagation.

The Eddy-Driven Jet and Storm-Track Responses to Boundary Layer Drag: Insights from an Idealized Dry GCM Study

Abstract Simulations using a dry, idealized general circulation model (GCM) are conducted to systematically investigate the eddy-driven jet’s sensitivity to the location of boundary layer drag. Perturbations of boundary layer drag solely within the baroclinic zone reproduce the eddy-driven jet responses to global drag variations. The implications for current theories of eddy-driven jet shifts are discussed. Hemispherically asymmetric drag simulations in equinoctial and solstitial thermal conditions show that perturbations of surface drag in one hemisphere have negligible effects on the strength and latitude of the eddy-driven jet in the opposite hemisphere. Jet speed exhibits larger sensitivities to surface drag in perpetual winter simulations, while sensitivities in jet latitude are larger in perpetual summer simulations. Near-surface drag simulations with an Earthlike continental profile show how surface drag may facilitate tropical–extratropical teleconnections by modifying waveguides through changes in jet latitude. Longitudinally confined drag simulations demonstrate a novel mechanism for localizing storm tracks. A theoretical analysis is used to show that asymmetries in the Bernoulli function within the baroclinic zone are important for the eddy-driven jet latitude responses because they directly modulate the sensitivity of the zonal-mean zonal wind to drag in the boundary layer momentum balance. The simulations contained herein provide a rich array of case studies against which to test current theories of eddy-driven jet and storm-track shifts, and the results affirm the importance of correct, well-constrained locations and intensities of boundary layer drag in order to reduce jet and storm-track biases in climate and forecast models.

Interannual Modulation of Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks by the QBO

AbstractStorm tracks, defined as the preferred regions of extratropical synoptic‐scale disturbances, have remarkable impacts on global weather and climate systems. Causes of interannual storm track variation have been investigated mostly from a troposphere perspective. As shown in this study, Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks are significantly modulated by the tropical stratosphere through the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO). The North Pacific storm track shifts poleward during the easterly QBO winters associated with a dipole change in the eddy refraction and baroclinicity. The North Atlantic storm track varies vertically with a downward shrinking (upward expansion) in easterly (westerly) QBO winters associated with the change of the tropopause height. These results not only fill the knowledge gap of QBO‐storm track relationship but also suggest a potential route to improve the seasonal prediction of extratropical storm activities owing to the high predictability of the QBO.

Linking Hadley Circulation and Storm Tracks in a Conceptual Model of the Atmospheric Energy Balance

Abstract Midlatitude storm tracks shift in response to climate change and natural climate variations such as El Niño, but the dynamical mechanisms controlling these shifts are not well established. This paper develops an energy balance model that shows how shifts of the Hadley cell terminus and changes of the meridional energy flux out of the Hadley cell can drive shifts of storm tracks, identified as extrema of the atmospheric meridional eddy energy flux. The distance between the Hadley cell terminus and the storm tracks is primarily controlled by the energy flux out of the Hadley cell. Because tropical forcings alone can modify the Hadley cell terminus, they can also shift extratropical storm tracks, as demonstrated through simulations with an idealized GCM. Additionally, a strengthening of the meridional temperature gradient at the terminus and hence of the energy flux out of the Hadley cell can reduce the distance between the Hadley cell terminus and the storm tracks, enabling storm-track shifts that do not parallel shifts of the Hadley cell terminus. Thus, with the aid of the energy balance model and supporting GCM simulations, a closed theory of storm-track shifts emerges.

Enhanced poleward propagation of storms under climate change

Earth’s midlatitudes are dominated by regions of large atmospheric weather variability—often referred to as storm tracks— which influence the distribution of temperature, precipitation and wind in the extratropics. Comprehensive climate models forced by increased greenhouse gas emissions suggest that under global warming the storm tracks shift poleward. While the poleward shift is a robust response across most models, there is currently no consensus on what the underlying dynamical mechanism is. Here we present a new perspective on the poleward shift, which is based on a Lagrangian view of the storm tracks. We show that in addition to a poleward shift in the genesis latitude of the storms, associated with the shift in baroclinicity, the latitudinal displacement of cyclonic storms increases under global warming. This is achieved by applying a storm-tracking algorithm to an ensemble of CMIP5 models. The increased latitudinal propagation in a warmer climate is shown to be a result of stronger upper-level winds and increased atmospheric water vapour. These changes in the propagation characteristics of the storms can have a significant impact on midlatitude climate. Storms are not only generated at higher latitudes, they also travel further in a warmer climate, according to analyses of climate model output with a storm-tracking algorithm. The larger travel distance is attributed to stronger upper-level winds and increased atmospheric water vapour.

8000 years of North Atlantic storminess reconstructed from a Scottish peat record: implications for Holocene atmospheric circulation patterns in Western Europe

ABSTRACTNorth Atlantic storminess can affect human settlements, infrastructure and transport links, all of which strongly impact local, national and global economies. An increase in storm frequency and intensity is predicted over the North‐East Atlantic in the 21st century because of a northward shift in storm tracks and a persistently positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), driven by recent atmospheric warming. Although documentary records of North Atlantic storminess exist, these are generally limited to the last c. 1000 years. This paper presents a continuous high‐resolution proxy record of storminess spanning the last 8000 years from a 6 m‐long core taken from a peat bog in northern Scotland. Bromine concentrations in the peat, derived from sea spray, are used to reconstruct storm frequency and storm intensity, and mire surface wetness is used as an indicator of longer‐term climate shifts. The results suggest a relationship between positive phases of the NAO and increased North Atlantic storminess. However, subtle differences between bromine concentrations and mire surface wetness suggest that high‐intensity but perhaps less frequent periods of storminess are not necessarily associated with a wetter climate.

Patterns of hydroclimatic change in the Rocky Mountains and surrounding regions since the last glacial maximum

The paleohydrologic record of western North America since the last glacial maximum reveals a wide range of hydroclimatic variability in time and space. To improve the understanding of abrupt hydroclimatic shifts and millennial-scale hydrologic changes in the central Rocky Mountains, we reconstruct the lake-level histories of two small lakes in the Beartooth and Bighorn Mountains in northern Wyoming over the past 17 ka. To do so, we use ground-penetrating radar (GPR) and sediment cores to track the elevations of shoreline sediments within the lakes through time. We compare the stratigraphies with those from four other lakes in Wyoming and Colorado, and find widespread evidence for a Terminal Pleistocene Drought from 15 to 11 ka, an early Holocene humid period from 11 to 8 ka, and mid-Holocene aridity from 8 to 5.5 ka. The northern Wyoming lakes also provide evidence of high levels in the Pleistocene, possibly before ca. 15 ka, and rapid hydroclimatic changes that may have correlated with Heinrich Event 1 (ca. 16.8 ka). We place the changes in a broad context by summarizing and mapping water-level changes from 107 additional, previously studied lakes. Important patterns include 1) extensive drying across the western U.S. after 15 ka; 2) sub-regional differences during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition; 3) a north-south contrast from 9 to 6 ka consistent with a northward shift in storm tracks as the influence of the Laurentide Ice Sheet diminished; and 4) rapid increases in effective moisture across much of western North America from 6 to 4 ka.

Using the Moist Static Energy Budget to Understand Storm-Track Shifts across a Range of Time Scales

Abstract Storm tracks shift meridionally in response to forcing across a range of time scales. Here the authors formulate a moist static energy (MSE) framework for storm-track position and use it to understand storm-track shifts in response to seasonal insolation, El Niño minus La Niña conditions, and direct (increased CO2 over land) and indirect (increased sea surface temperature) effects of increased CO2. Two methods (linearized Taylor series and imposed MSE flux divergence) are developed to quantify storm-track shifts and decompose them into contributions from net energy (MSE input to the atmosphere minus atmospheric storage) and MSE flux divergence by the mean meridional circulation and stationary eddies. Net energy is not a dominant contribution across the time scales considered. The stationary eddy contribution dominates the storm-track shift in response to seasonal insolation, El Niño minus La Niña conditions, and CO2 direct effect in the Northern Hemisphere, whereas the mean meridional circulation contribution dominates the shift in response to CO2 indirect effect during northern winter and in the Southern Hemisphere during May and October. Overall, the MSE framework shows the seasonal storm-track shift in the Northern Hemisphere is connected to the stationary eddy MSE flux evolution. Furthermore, the equatorward storm-track shift during northern winter in response to El Niño minus La Niña conditions involves a different regime than the poleward shift in response to increased CO2 even though the tropical upper troposphere warms in both cases.

Shifting Pacific storm tracks as stressors to ecosystems of western North America.

Much of the precipitation delivered to western North America arrives during the cool season via midlatitude Pacific storm tracks, which may experience future shifts in response to climate change. Here, we assess the sensitivity of the hydroclimate and ecosystems of western North America to the latitudinal position of cool-season Pacific storm tracks. We calculated correlations between storm track variability and three hydroclimatic variables: gridded cool-season standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index, April snow water equivalent, and water year streamflow from a network of USGS stream gauges. To assess how historical storm track variability affected ecosystem processes, we derived forest growth estimates from a large network of tree-ring widths and land surface phenology and wildfire estimates from remote sensing. From 1980 to 2014, cool-season storm tracks entered western North America between approximately 41°N and 53°N. Cool-season moisture supply and snowpack responded strongly to storm track position, with positive correlations to storm track latitude in eastern Alaska and northwestern Canada but negative correlations in the northwestern U.S. Ecosystems of the western United States were greener and more productive following winters with south-shifted storm tracks, while Canadian ecosystems were greener in years when the cool-season storm track was shifted to the north. On average, larger areas of the northwestern United States were burned by moderate to high severity wildfires when storm tracks were displaced north, and the average burn area per fire also tended to be higher in years with north-shifted storm tracks. These results suggest that projected shifts of Pacific storm tracks over the 21st century would likely alter hydroclimatic and ecological regimes in western North America, particularly in the northwestern United States, where moisture supply and ecosystem processes are highly sensitive to the position of cool-season storm tracks.

Importance of Resolving Kuroshio Front and Eddy Influence in Simulating the North Pacific Storm Track

Abstract Local and remote atmospheric responses to mesoscale SST anomalies associated with the oceanic front and eddies in the Kuroshio Extension region (KER) are studied using high- (27 km) and low-resolution (162 km) regional climate model simulations in the North Pacific. In the high-resolution simulations, removal of mesoscale SST anomalies in the KER leads to not only a local reduction in cyclogenesis but also a remote large-scale equivalent barotropic response with a southward shift of the downstream storm track and jet stream in the eastern North Pacific. In the low-resolution simulations, no such significant remote response is found when mesoscale SST anomalies are removed. The difference between the high- and low-resolution model simulated atmospheric responses is attributed to the effect of mesoscale SST variability on cyclogenesis through moist baroclinic instability. It is only when the model has sufficient resolution to resolve small-scale diabatic heating that the full effect of mesoscale SST forcing on the storm track can be correctly simulated.

Timeslice experiments for understanding regional climate projections: applications to the tropical hydrological cycle and European winter circulation

A set of atmosphere-only timeslice experiments are described, designed to examine the processes that cause regional climate change and inter-model uncertainty in coupled climate model responses to \(CO_2\) forcing. The timeslice experiments are able to reproduce the pattern of regional climate change in the coupled models, and are applied here to two cases where inter-model uncertainty in future projections is large: the tropical hydrological cycle, and European winter circulation. In tropical forest regions, the plant physiological effect is the largest cause of hydrological cycle change in the two models that represent this process. This suggests that the CMIP5 ensemble mean may be underestimating the magnitude of water cycle change in these regions, due to the inclusion of models without the plant effect. SST pattern change is the dominant cause of precipitation and circulation change over the tropical oceans, and also appears to contribute to inter-model uncertainty in precipitation change over tropical land regions. Over Europe and the North Atlantic, uniform SST increases drive a poleward shift of the storm-track. However this does not consistently translate into an overall polewards storm-track shift, due to large circulation responses to SST pattern change, which varies across the models. Coupled model SST biases influence regional rainfall projections in regions such as the Maritime Continent, and so projections in these regions should be treated with caution.

Arctic and East Asia Winter Climate Variations Associated with the Eastern Atlantic Pattern

The wintertime Arctic temperature (T; surface–400 hPa) decreased from 1979 to 1997 and increased rapidly from 1998 to 2012, in contrast to the global mean surface air temperature. Here aspects of circulation variability that are associated with these temperature changes are examined using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis and ERA-Interim products. It is found that the Nordic–Siberia seesaw of meridional winds near 70°N is associated with two-thirds of the variance of the Arctic winter mean T, possibly contributing to the cooling and warming trends. It is suggested here that the seesaw accounts for much of the difference in Arctic amplification between observations and climate models. Growth of sea ice in winter is hindered by southerly winds over the Nordic region (0°–60°E). Through modulation of the wind seesaw, the eastern Atlantic (EA) pattern is found to be significantly associated with Arctic and East Asia winter climate variations. In one phase of the EA pattern, a midlatitude North Atlantic ridge anomaly is associated with a poleward shift of the mean storm track, a weakened eddy-driven jet over Eurasia, and above-normal sea level pressure (SLP) over Siberia, most significantly in the region to the northwest of Lake Baikal. The EA pattern is associated with two-thirds of the variance of winter-average SLP over Siberia.

Storm-Track Shifts under Climate Change: Toward a Mechanistic Understanding Using Baroclinic Mean Available Potential Energy

Abstract Zonal-mean storm-track shifts in response to perturbations in climate occur even in idealized simulations of dry atmospheres with axisymmetric forcing. Nonetheless, a generally accepted theory of the mechanisms controlling the storm-track shifts is still lacking. Here, mean available potential energy (MAPE), a general measure of baroclinicity that is proportional to the square of the Eady growth rate, is used to understand storm-track shifts. It is demonstrated that, in dry atmospheres, the eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in a storm track is linearly related to the mean available potential energy, relative to a local reference state, and that maxima of the two are generally collocated in latitude. Changes in MAPE with climate are then decomposed into components. It is shown that in simulations of dry atmospheres, changes in the latitude of maximum MAPE are dominated by changes in near-surface meridional temperature gradients. By contrast, changes in the magnitude of MAPE are primarily determined by changes in static stability and in the depth of the troposphere. A theory of storm-track shifts may build upon these findings and primarily needs to explain changes in near-surface meridional temperature gradients. The terminus of the Hadley circulation often shifts in tandem with storm tracks and is hypothesized to play an important role in triggering the storm-track shifts seen in this idealized dry context, especially in simulations where increases only in the convective static stability in the deep tropics suffice to shift storm tracks poleward.

Trends in frequency and persistence of atmospheric circulation types over Europe derived from a multitude of classifications

ABSTRACTThe aim of this study is to quantify changes of atmospheric circulation over Europe using a large number of classifications of circulation types that were collected and developed within the COST733 Action ‘Harmonisation and Applications of Weather Types Classifications for European Regions’. Circulation changes over Europe are studied in terms of changing seasonal frequency and persistence of daily circulation types in the period September 1957–August 2002. The extensive collection of both subjective and objective (computer‐assisted) catalogues of circulation types in 12 European domains serves as a platform for comparison of different classification methods, varying numbers of circulation types, sequencing of input sea‐level pressure data, and spatial scale of circulation processes. The overall picture of frequency and persistence trends is consistent with two large‐scale tendencies: strengthening and eastward shift of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and a northwestward shift of storm tracks. There is, however, a limited consistency in the trends between individual classifications. This inconsistency leads us to the recommendation that results of climatological analyses based on a single classification should not be generalized and overinterpreted; it is highly advisable to simultaneously use multiple, and as many as possible, classifications in climatological studies.

What Causes Weak Orographic Rain Shadows? Insights from Case Studies in the Cascades and Idealized Simulations

Abstract Recent studies have shown that weak rain shadows in the Cascade Mountains are associated with passing warm fronts, but the specific mechanisms responsible for this connection have eluded consensus. One theory holds that weak rain shadows are the result of enhanced precipitation over eastern slopes caused by easterly upslope flow; the other suggests that condensation is produced primarily over the western slopes, with enhanced east-slope precipitation occurring in dynamical regimes that minimize descent and evaporation east of the crest. Here these mechanisms are investigated through numerical simulations involving both real and idealized topography. Consistent with the second theory, storms with weak rain shadows are found to exhibit much weaker mountain waves in the lee of the Cascades than storms with strong rain shadows, with correspondingly weaker leeside evaporation. The muted wave activity during weak-rain-shadow storms is found to be caused by cold, zonally stagnant air at low levels in the lee, which precedes the warm front, and remains in place as the progression of the front is impeded by the mountains. As the front brings warmer air aloft, the static stability of the zonally stagnant layer increases, making it more resistant to erosion by the overlying flow. This in turn allows the weak rain shadow to persist long after the front has passed. If the midlatitude storm tracks shift poleward in a warmer climate, the results suggest there could be an increase in the strength of the rain shadow in mountainous regions astride the current storm tracks.

Atmospheric drying as the main driver of dramatic glacier wastage in the southern Indian Ocean.

The ongoing retreat of glaciers at southern sub-polar latitudes is particularly rapid and widespread. Akin to northern sub-polar latitudes, this retreat is generally assumed to be linked to warming. However, no long-term and well-constrained glacier modeling has ever been performed to confirm this hypothesis. Here, we model the Cook Ice Cap mass balance on the Kerguelen Islands (Southern Indian Ocean, 49°S) since the 1850s. We show that glacier wastage during the 2000s in the Kerguelen was among the most dramatic on Earth. We attribute 77% of the increasingly negative mass balance since the 1960s to atmospheric drying associated with a poleward shift of the mid-latitude storm track. Because precipitation modeling is very challenging for the current generation of climate models over the study area, models incorrectly simulate the climate drivers behind the recent glacier wastage in the Kerguelen. This suggests that future glacier wastage projections should be considered cautiously where changes in atmospheric circulation are expected.

Arctic-North Pacific coupled impacts on the late autumn cold in North America

The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is known to bring an anomalously cold (warm) period to southeastern (northwestern) North America during the cold season of its positive phase through a Rossby wave linkage. This study provides evidence that the remote connection between the North Pacific and the downstream temperature over central North America is strengthened by the warm arctic conditions over the Chukchi and East Siberian Sea, especially in the late autumn season. The modulation effect of the Arctic manifests itself as an altered Rossby wave response to a transient vorticity forcing that results from an equatorward storm track shift, which is induced collaboratively by the PDO and the warm Arctic. This observational finding is supported by two independent modeling experiments: (1) an idealized coupled GCM experiment being nudged toward the warm arctic surface condition and (2) a simple stationary wave model experiment forced by transient eddy forcing.