Storm Surge Characteristics Research Articles

Trend of landfalling tropical cyclones in the East China Sea and their storm surge response

In recent years, the influence of global tropical cyclones (TCs) has a tendency to expand towards the polar direction, and the proportion of high-intensity TCs has also increased greatly. The Northwest Pacific is a high incidence area of TCs, the northward shift of landfalling TCs in China and the increase of high-intensity TCs will lead to an increased risk of storm surge in the East China Sea (ECS). However, due to the lack of long-term observations in the ECS, previous studies have focused on the analysis of individual TC, and the response mechanism of storm surge to long-term trends of TCs is not clear. Based on the long-term observations of TCs from 1949 to 2022 and the numerical experiments of storm surge, the trend of landfalling TCs in China and the response characteristics of storm surge in the ECS were studied in this paper. The observations showed that the probability of TCs entering ECS became greater in the latter 37 years compared with the former 37 years. The average intensity of landfalling TCs (maximum wind speed) increased by 36% to 30 m/s, and the average speed of landfalling TCs increased by 100% to 8 m/s. The model results showed that the intensity of the storm surge is closely related to the intensity and translation speed of TCs. Under the condition of the same translation speed of TCs, the storm surge enhanced with the intensity of TCs. For the TCs with high intensity (strong typhoon and super typhoon), the intensity of the storm surge continues to increase as the translation speed of the TCs increases. However, for the TCs with low or medium intensity (severe tropical storms and typhoons), the intensity of the storm surge reaches a peak with the increase of the translation speed of TCs. The intensity of the storm surge is determined by both the wind speed and the duration of strong wind. The TCs with faster translation speed can produce a stronger wind field but shorter duration of strong wind. Therefore, the intensity of the storm surge decreases when the translation speed of TCs exceeds the threshold value.

Future projections of storm surges and associated coastal inundation along the east coast of India

Abstract This study aims to analyze several aspects of storm surges and associated coastal inundation along the east coast of India. The current study utilizes historical cyclone tracks over the past five decades and, synthetic tracks are projected for the next 100 years to develop a comprehensive analysis of the storm surges in India. The impact of climate change on cyclone path and intensity is also considered. The ADCIRC model is used to compute storm surge heights and associated coastal inundation for historical and future cyclone tracks. An in-depth analysis is carried out using composite maps explaining the storm surge characteristics at various coastal locations. The novelty of this study lies in the comprehensive analysis of potential storm surges and associated coastal flooding related to exaggerated cyclones that are expected in a changing climate scenario. The outcome of the study is beneficial to storm surge operational centers and disaster management applications.

RCP8.5-projected changes in German Bight storm surge characteristics from regionalized ensemble simulations for the end of the twenty-first century

This study investigates climate-induced changes in height, frequency and duration of storm surges in the German Bight. The regionally coupled climate model system MPIOM-REMO with a focus on the North Sea has been utilized to dynamically downscale 30 members of the global climate model system MPI-ESM1.1-LR for the historical period 1950–2005 and a continuation until 2099 with the RCP8.5 scenario. Results of all members have been collected into the historical (1970–1999) and the rcp85 (2070–2099) data pools amounting to 900 years of the corresponding climate state. The global mean sea level rise was not considered. Nevertheless, the mean ensemble German Bight SSH trend amounts to about 13 ± 1 cm/century (PI control: 3 cm/century) due to adaptation of the ocean circulation to the changing climatic conditions. Storm surges were defined as SSH above mean high tidal water plus 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 m for “regular”, heavy, extreme storm surges, and then clustered to events. Our simulated storm surge events show a clear location-dependent increase in frequency (6–11%), median duration (4–24%), and average duration (9–20%) in the German Bight. Only along the central German Bight coast (Cuxhaven), longer lasting events gain more relevance. Heavy storm surge events show also a strong increase in frequency (7–34%) and average duration (10–22%). Maximum sea levels during storm events increase strongest and most significant along the northern German Bight and Danish coasts with more than 30 cm/century for the 60-year return period at Hörnum and 10–15 cm/century for shorter return periods. Levels of return periods shorter than a few years significantly increase everywhere along the southern German Bight coasts (around 5 cm/century for the 2-year return period). Highest SSH maxima do not change, and consequently, extreme storm surge events show hardly any response to climate change. Furthermore, our results indicate a shift of seasonality from the last to the first quarter of a year. As the main driver for the encountered alteration of German Bight storm surge characteristics, we identified a change in wind conditions with a pronounced increase of frequency of strong westerly winds.

The temporal clustering of storm surge, wave height, and high sea level exceedances around the UK coastline

The temporal clustering of storms presents consecutive storm surge and wave hazards that can lead to amplified flood and erosional damages; thus, clustering is important for coastal stakeholders to consider. We analyse the prevalence of storm clustering around the UK coastline by examining the temporal and spatial characteristics of storm surge, wave height, and high still sea level exceedances at the 1 in 1- and 5-year return levels. First, at the interannual timescale, we show that there are periods of high/low exceedance counts on national and regional scales. Elevated annual counts of exceedances with smaller magnitudes can occur without a respective signal of higher-magnitude exceedances. Secondly, at the intra-annual timescale, we show that high proportions of exceedances are clustering over short timescales. Storm surge, wave height and still sea level exceedances occurring < 50 days after the prior exceedance at a given site account for between ~ 35–44% and ~ 15–22% of all exceedances at the 1 in 1- and 5-year return levels, respectively. Still sea levels have the highest proportion of exceedances clustered in quick succession, with ~ 25% of 1 in 1-year exceedances occurring < 2 days after the previous at the same site. Spatially, for UK storm surges and still sea levels, the North Sea has the lowest proportion of clustering, whereas the North Atlantic and Bristol Channel have the highest. For English wave records, the highest proportions of clustering are found in the North Sea for exceedances of a lower magnitude and the English Channel for exceedances of a higher magnitude. These findings illuminate the prevalence of the clustering of coastal hazards around the UK—helping coastal stakeholders evaluate the threat of surges, waves, and sea levels clustering over short periods.

Compound flooding in convergent estuaries: insights from an analytical model

Abstract. We investigate here the effects of geometric properties (channel depth and cross-sectional convergence length), storm surge characteristics, friction, and river flow on the spatial and temporal variability of compound flooding along an idealized, meso-tidal coastal-plain estuary. An analytical model is developed that includes exponentially convergent geometry, tidal forcing, constant river flow, and a representation of storm surge as a combination of two sinusoidal waves. Nonlinear bed friction is treated using Chebyshev polynomials and trigonometric functions, and a multi-segment approach is used to increase accuracy. Model results show that river discharge increases the damping of surge amplitudes in an estuary, while increasing channel depth has the opposite effect. Sensitivity studies indicate that the impact of river flow on peak water level decreases as channel depth increases, while the influence of tide and surge increases in the landward portion of an estuary. Moreover, model results show less surge damping in deeper configurations and even amplification in some cases, while increased convergence length scale increases damping of surge waves with periods of 12–72 h. For every modeled scenario, there is a point where river discharge effects on water level outweigh tide/surge effects. As a channel is deepened, this cross-over point moves progressively upstream. Thus, channel deepening may alter flood risk spatially along an estuary and reduce the length of a river estuary, within which fluvial flooding is dominant.

Characteristics of Storm Surge by Forward Speed of Typhoon in the South Coast of Korea

The damage caused by typhoons is gradually increasing due to the climate change recently. Hence, many studies have been conducted over a long period of time on various factors that determine the characteristics of storm surge, and most of relationships have been discovered. Because storm surge is complexly determined by various factors, it often show different results and draw different conclusions. For this reason, this study was conducted to understand the various characteristics of storm surge caused by changes in the forward speed of typhoons. This study was carried out with a numerical model, and the effect of forward speed could be analyzed by simplifying other factors as much as possible. When forward speed is increased, storm surges caused by typhoons tended to increase gradually. The storm surge showed a wide and gentle increase at a slow speed, but a narrow and steep one at a fast speed. In the case of the same forward speed, it was found that the storm surge was significantly influenced by the water depth of actual sea area. It was confirmed that the change in forward speed after passing Jeju Island did not significant affect on the storm surge in the south coast of Korea.

Characteristics of Storm Surge Based on the Forward Speed of the Storm

Park, Y.H. and Youn, D., 2021. Characteristics of storm surge based on the forward speed of the storm. In: Lee, J.L.; Suh, K.-S.; Lee, B.; Shin, S., and Lee, J. (eds.), Crisis and Integrated Management for Coastal and Marine Safety. Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 114, pp. 71–75. Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Storm surge is determined by the attributes of the storm and several other factors. The forward speed of a storm is known to increase the wave height, but its effect on storm surges has not yet been studied in detail. This study focused on the forward speed of storms approaching the Korean Peninsula, which has been getting slower due to climate change. The forward speed continued to change along the track of the storm until extinction. Despite the difficulties caused by the changes in the moving direction and forward speed of storms, this study investigates the effects of their forward speed on the storm surge using the ADCIRC numerical model. Variations in storm surge due to the forward speed of real and virtual storms were studied by simplifying the other factors. Many test simulations were conducted under various conditions, such as steady and accelerated forward speeds and routes along an artificial straight track of the storm. The results were analyzed to determine the characteristics of the storm surge in terms of forward speed. Some of these were compared with actual cases. Based on the model results, it was found that the forward speed of the storm was inversely proportional to the duration of the storm, and their ratios produced different forms of storm surges. When the forward speed decreases, a storm surge is induced for a longer time. The results also showed that the maximum storm surge increased as the forward speed increased.

Proposal of new indexes for development characteristics of storm surge considering topographical features and tides

ABSTRACT We focused on the effects of tides on storm surge deviations. According to previous studies, storm surge deviations depend on when the typhoon strikes in the tidal phase because the water depth of a bay varies with tides. The previous studies concluded that the dependence can be explained by the conventional formula. However, the results of our numerical simulations could not be explained quantitatively by the conventional formula and require a development mechanism for storm surges that are not expressed in the formula, to explain the dependency. Therefore, we focused on the water depth gradient, and confirmed from the numerical simulation results that the depth gradient greatly influenced the development characteristics of storm surges. Moreover, a new formula considering the depth gradient was derived, and the tidal dependence of storm surge deviations was investigated. Based on the new formula, two indexes that indicate the effect of the water depth gradient and the effect of tides on storm surges were derived. We examined the indexes to clearly understand the development characteristics of storm surges. Finally, the validity of the derived indexes was investigated by comparing the computed surge heights based on the indexes with the results of the numerical simulations.

Analysis of storm surge characteristics based on stochastic process

Most of the offshore projects will be impacted by storm surge, especially in the sea area where typhoons are frequent, and storm surge disasters are inevitable. The establishment of a theoretical distribution model of the number of typhoon occurrences and random waves is of great theoretical and practical significance for the study of the number of storm surge impacts and damage to marine engineering as well as the safety evaluation of offshore engineering. Based on stochastic process theory, this paper discusses the effects of the number of typhoon occurrences and typhoon intensity on wave displacement and water level by constructing a compound Poisson process model of typhoon frequency and typhoon intensity. The limitations of using typhoon intensity and wave height as random variables in the marine environment are improved. The average cumulative damage, reliability, and average service life of marine works were analyzed by marine works reliability analysis and a compound Poisson process of the number of storm surge impacts on marine works and the damage caused to marine works by each impact. The results show that the statistical theoretical model and reliability analysis of the storm surge hazard factors based on the stochastic process covers the original extreme value statistical distribution model, and can determine the parameters in the model according to different thresholds in line with the objective facts, and then deduce the design return level, while the deduced return level still has a certain degree of reliability in the case of short or missing data. Therefore, the stochastic process-based model of the imputed level of design parameters for the marine environment provides a new option for marine engineering design and risk management.

Study on the Characteristics of Tides and Storm Surge in Dongji Islands

Storm surge has posed a great threat to the safe development of marine ranch in Dongji Islands. Research on the tidal dynamics and storm surge of Dongji Islands is more and more urgent. For this reason, based on measured data of tidal level in 2012, this paper conducts research on the variations of tidal level and storm surge in Dongji Islands. Main conclusions are: Affected by the topography and tidal waves in the East China Sea, temporal and spatial distribution of tidal level and storm surge is asymmetric. Tidal intensity is strong in the eastern sea and weak in the western. The amplitudes of main semi-diurnal tides (M2, S2, N2) in the western sea have a significant attenuation, with the average tidal range decreased by about 16%. Cycle of the practical storm surge is consistent with the tidal constituents, for the cycle at Daishan station was close to 24 h, while Miaozihu station was about 12 h.

A coupled wave, tide and storm surge operational forecasting system for South Africa: validation and physical description

Regional storm tidal levels of the South African coastline are investigated by means of a calibrated and validated numerical model. The model was developed utilizing the shallow water hydrodynamic model, Delft3D. This model was coupled (online) with a non-stationary spectral wave model (developed in the Simulating WAves in the Nearshore (SWAN) numerical code). A local, 4.4 km version of the Unified Model was applied as atmospheric forcing for the coupled system. The models presented in this study form part of the operational marine forecasts of the South African Weather Service, Wave and Storm Surge model. The operational protocol and model calibration and validation are presented via statistical correlations with measured water levels at six South African coastal locations. The main calibration parameters and thus physical drivers were winds, atmospheric pressure and waves. The validated numerical model is used to provide an experimental physical description of South African storm surge characteristics, per coastline. The dominant driver of South African storm surge is winds associated with mid-latitude cyclones. Further novelty in the present study is the quantification of the relative contribution of extreme storm wave set-up to the South African storm surge signal. This wave set-up contributes approximately 20% of the total surge signal in the southwest, with winds contributing approximately 55%. The importance of the continental shelves is also elucidated concerning the frictional shoaling effects of the long surge wave propagation.

Modeling assessment of storm surge in the Salish Sea

This paper presents a modeling assessment of storm surge in the Salish Sea—a large and complex estuarine system in the Pacific Northwest that is exposed to extratropical cyclones. A method was developed to systematically identify storm surge events in the Salish Sea based on water level records at four representative tidal gauges in the Salish Sea. The maximum storm surge distribution in the Salish Sea was calculated based on model simulations of 34 major historical storm events from 1980 to 2016. The model simulations were validated by field observations of water level and velocity using a suite of model performance metrics. Model results suggest that the maximum storm surge in the Salish Sea is generally in the range of 0.8 m–1.03 m and is heterogeneous in space. The model results also show a strong north-south gradient with larger surge magnitudes occurring in the north that is primarily caused by the southerly wind in winter months. The sensitivity analysis of wind forcing suggested that storm surge in the Salish Sea is dominated by the remote surge from the Pacific Ocean, and the local wind contributes up to approximately 20% of the surge variability. This paper systematically elucidates storm surge characteristics and potential risk in the Salish Sea.

Coastal Louisiana landscape and storm surge evolution: 1850–2110

Storm surge models are constructed to represent the Louisiana coastal landscape circa 1850, 1890, 1930, 1970, 1990, 2010, 2030, 2050, 2070, 2090, and 2110. Historical maps are utilized to develop models with past landscapes while a continuation of recent landscape trends is assumed for future models. The same suite of meteorological wind and pressure fields is simulated with each storm surge model. Simulation results for 1850 and 1890 demonstrate minimal change in storm surge characteristics along the Louisiana coast. A mean maximum storm surge height increase of 0.26 m from 1930 to 2010 is quantified within the sediment-abundant Atchafalaya-Vermilion coastal basin, while increases of 0.34 m and 0.41 m are quantified within sediment-starved Terrebonne and Barataria, respectively. Future mean maximum storm surge heights increase across these three coastal basins by 0.67 m, 0.55 m, and 0.75 m, indicating negligible differences from 2010 to 2110, regardless of sediment availability. Results indicate that past changes in the Louisiana coastal landscape and storm surge were a consequence of local land and river management decisions while future changes are dominated by relative (subsidence and eustatic) sea level rise. Projecting landscape and surge changes beyond 50 years could aide policy makers as they work to enhance resilience across coastal Louisiana. Similar analyses could be conducted for other deltas across the world, such as the Ganges, that are experiencing challenges comparable to those of the Mississippi River Delta.

Storm surge from Hurricane Irma along the Florida Peninsula

Hurricane Irma impacted the entire Florida peninsula in September 2017. The combination of Irma's strength, size, and track provided a unique opportunity to study hurricane effects on storm surge on both sides of a peninsula. Storm surge characteristics on the west coast of Florida were markedly different from those on the east coast. On the west coast, the maximum storm surge was 1.6 m at Naples, which was attributed to onshore winds and an atmospheric pressure of 970 hPa. A stunning negative surge of −2.7 m appeared at Cedar Key, in the peninsula's northwestern quarter, after ~10 h of oblique offshore and divergent winds. On the east coast, the maximum surge was 2.4 m at Fernandina Beach, where wind velocity displayed horizontal convergence. A revealing finding of this investigation was that wind divergence is an essential component for predicting storm surge.

Assessment of the temporal evolution of storm surge across coastal Louisiana

The co-evolution of wetland loss and flood risk in the Mississippi River Delta is tested by contrasting the response of storm surge in coastal basins with varying historical riverine sediment inputs. A previously developed method to construct hydrodynamic storm surge models is employed to quantify historical changes in coastal storm surge. Simplified historical landscapes facilitate comparability while storm surge model meshes developed from historical data are incomparable due to the only recent (post-2000) extensive use of lidar for topographic mapping. Storm surge model meshes circa 1930, 1970 and 2010 are constructed via application of land to water (L:W) isopleths, lines that indicate areas of constant land to water ratio across coastal Louisiana. The ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) code, coupled with the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) wave model, is used to compute water surface elevations, time of inundation, depth-averaged currents and wave statistics from a suite of 14 hurricane wind and pressure fields for each mesh year. Maximum water surface elevation and inundation time differences correspond with coastal basins featuring historically negligible riverine sediment inputs and wetland loss as well as a coastal basin with historically substantial riverine inputs and wetland gain. The major finding of this analysis is maximum water surface elevations differences from 1970 to 2010 are 0.247 m and 0.282 m within sediment-starved Terrebonne and Barataria coastal basins, respectively. This difference is only 0.096 m across the adjacent sediment-abundant Atchafalaya-Vermilion coastal basin. Hurricane Rita inundation time results from 1970 to 2010 demonstrate an increase of approximately one day across Terrebonne and Barataria while little change occurs across Atchafalaya-Vermilion. The connection between storm surge characteristics and changes in riverine sediment inputs is also demonstrated via a sensitivity analysis which identifies changes in sediment inputs as the greatest contributor to changes in storm surge when compared with historical global mean sea level (GMSL) rise and the excavation of major navigation waterways. Results imply the magnitude of the challenge of preparing this area for future subsidence and GMSL rise.

River-tide-storm surge interaction characteristics for the Hooghly estuary, East coast of India

ABSTRACT The head Bay of Bengal region that borders the North Indian Ocean is crisscrossed with numerous tidal creeks, riverine systems and channels that play an important role in storm surge studies. In particular, the storm surge resulting from the landfall of tropical cyclone over this region can interact with the river systems and thereby modify the characteristics of storm surge. Several studies were attempted to understand the behaviour of storm surges and associated inundation for the Indian coast; however, the role of hydrologic component in modifying storm surge received less attention. The present study considers a stretch of Hooghly River channel in West Bengal that provides the navigable route to two important national ports, and important in context to socio-economic implications. The state-of-art advanced circulation model (ADCIRC) hydrodynamic model used in this study incorporates the riverine stretch and investigates the effect of river discharge on storm surge propagation along the upstream reaches of the Hooghly River. In addition, the river-tide interaction was studied with differential river discharge volumes of 1000 and 3000 m3 s−1 that corresponds to the respective minimum and maximum discharges. Model simulations well represented the upstream tidal propagation as well the reversal of tidal currents in the river. Also the effect of variable river discharge volumes in modifying the limit of flood flow was clear from simulation. The results signify that limit of flood flow was seen nearly 70 km in the river upstream for discharge volume corresponding to 1000 m3 s−1 and reduced to 62 km on increasing the discharge to 3000 m3 s−1. The effect of wind stress on storm surge penetration into river was also investigated using the hypothetical Aila cyclone wind field. Moreover, the combined effect due to varying river discharge volumes and wind stress on storm surge characteristics was also studied. The study is an effort to understand the role of river-tide-storm surge interaction very useful in a real-time storm surge forecasting system.

Simulation of the storm surge in the South China Sea based on the coupled sea-air model

Under global warming and climate change, coastal regions, including China, are increasingly vulnerable to typhoon damages. With typhoon gales, heavy rainfall, and storm surge, typhoons cause great economic losses and casualties to the coastal communities of China every year. Therefore, it is of great academic and social values to study the generation mechanism and movement mode of typhoons. However, accurately predicting the potential storm surge that a typhoon in growing can cause is a very challenging task. During the evolution of typhoons, the ocean-atmosphere (sea-air) interface has strong exchange of mass and energy. At the same time, various physical fields, such as wind, pressure, flow and wave fields interact strongly with each other. To accurately simulate the typhoons and the corresponding storm surge, the air-sea interaction is not to be neglected. Hence, it is very important to establish a reliable prediction model of sea-air coupling. In this paper, we established a fully two-way coupled sea-air model for South China Sea (SCS) by applying the mesoscale atmospheric model named WRF, the regional ocean model named ROMS, and the model coupling toolkit (MCT). In this complicated coupled sea-air model, WRF transfers the sea surface stress, net heat flux, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, shortwave radiation flux, and longwave radiation flux to ROMS through MCT coupler. In turn, ROMS transfers sea surface temperature (SST) to WRF. By applying the fully coupled WRF-ROMS model, the storm surge induced by Typhoon Kai-tak , 2012 in the SCS is simulated and analyzed in detail. The computational capability and reliability of the coupled WRF-ROMS model are well verified by comparing the simulated typhoon track, and corresponding intensity and strength with the observed values in the field. The verification data show that the two-way coupled model has better accuracy and advantage in simulating typhoon dynamics than the one-way coupled model. Subsequently, the validated two-way coupled model is used to systematically study the atmospheric dynamics and the storm surge induced by typhoons in SCS. By analyzing the numerical simulation results, the wind and pressure field, as well as the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of storm surge and wind-induced current, are obtained. We found that the spatial distribution of the wind, storm surge and flow fields caused by Typhoon Kai-tak is asymmetrical. The intensity of the typhoon on the right side of track is stronger than that on the left. Moreover, compared with the temporal evolution of typhoon, there is some delay in the evolution of the storm surge and the wind-induced current in the near shore.

A basis function approach for exploring the seasonal and spatial features of storm surge events

AbstractStorm surge is a significant contributor to flooding in coastal and estuarine regions. To represent the statistical characteristics of storm surge over a climatologically diverse region, we propose the use of basis functions that capture the temporal progression of individual storm surge events. This extends statistical analyses of surge from considering only the peak to a more multifaceted approach that also includes decay rate and duration. Our results show that there is seasonal variation in storm surge along the Australian coastline. During the dominant storm surge seasons, the peak and duration of storm surge events tend to increase simultaneously at a number of locations, with implications for flood damage assessments and evacuation planning. By combining the dynamic and statistical features of storm surge, it is possible to better understand the factors that can lead to flood risk along the coastline, including estuarine areas that are also affected by fluvial floods.

Sensitivity analysis of climate change impacts on dune erosion: case study for the Dutch Holland coast

Climate change could have large implications for the management of dune-fringed coasts. Sea level rise and changes in storm wave and surge characteristics could lead to enhanced dune erosion and hence a decrease in safety levels. Here, we use the process-based model XBeach to quantify the impact of sea level rise and changing hydrodynamic boundary conditions on the magnitude of future dune erosion at two locations along the Dutch coast. We find a linear relation between sea level rise and dune erosion volume, the exact linear relation being dependent on the local hydrodynamical boundary conditions. The process driving higher erosion appears to be sea level rise, allowing waves to attack the dune at a higher level. Additional simulations illustrate that a change in the offshore wave angle, potentially produced by changes in storm tracks, could influence the erosion volume with the same order of magnitude as sea level rise. Finally, simulations with different mitigation options (i.e., sand nourishments) illustrate the strong effect of the location of the added sand to the reduction in the dune erosion volume.

Storm surge evolution and its relationship to climate oscillations at Duck, NC

Coastal communities experience increased vulnerability during storm surge events through the risk of damage to coastal infrastructure, erosion/deposition, and the endangerment of human life. Policy and planning measures attempt to avoid or mitigate storm surge consequences through building codes and setbacks, beach stabilization, insurance rates, and coastal zoning. The coastal emergency management community and public react and respond on shorter time scales, through temporary protection, emergency stockpiling, and evacuation. This study utilizes time series analysis, the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test, Pearson’s correlation, and the generalized extreme value (GEV) theorem to make the connection between climate oscillation indices and storm surge characteristics intra-seasonally to inter-annually. Results indicate that an El Nino (+ENSO), negative phase of the NAO, and positive phase of the PNA pattern all support longer duration and hence more powerful surge events, especially in winter. Increased surge duration increases the likelihood of extensive erosion, inland inundation, among other undesirable effects of the surge hazard.