Trend of landfalling tropical cyclones in the East China Sea and their storm surge response

Abstract

In recent years, the influence of global tropical cyclones (TCs) has a tendency to expand towards the polar direction, and the proportion of high-intensity TCs has also increased greatly. The Northwest Pacific is a high incidence area of TCs, the northward shift of landfalling TCs in China and the increase of high-intensity TCs will lead to an increased risk of storm surge in the East China Sea (ECS). However, due to the lack of long-term observations in the ECS, previous studies have focused on the analysis of individual TC, and the response mechanism of storm surge to long-term trends of TCs is not clear. Based on the long-term observations of TCs from 1949 to 2022 and the numerical experiments of storm surge, the trend of landfalling TCs in China and the response characteristics of storm surge in the ECS were studied in this paper. The observations showed that the probability of TCs entering ECS became greater in the latter 37 years compared with the former 37 years. The average intensity of landfalling TCs (maximum wind speed) increased by 36% to 30 m/s, and the average speed of landfalling TCs increased by 100% to 8 m/s. The model results showed that the intensity of the storm surge is closely related to the intensity and translation speed of TCs. Under the condition of the same translation speed of TCs, the storm surge enhanced with the intensity of TCs. For the TCs with high intensity (strong typhoon and super typhoon), the intensity of the storm surge continues to increase as the translation speed of the TCs increases. However, for the TCs with low or medium intensity (severe tropical storms and typhoons), the intensity of the storm surge reaches a peak with the increase of the translation speed of TCs. The intensity of the storm surge is determined by both the wind speed and the duration of strong wind. The TCs with faster translation speed can produce a stronger wind field but shorter duration of strong wind. Therefore, the intensity of the storm surge decreases when the translation speed of TCs exceeds the threshold value.