Abstract
Climate change could have large implications for the management of dune-fringed coasts. Sea level rise and changes in storm wave and surge characteristics could lead to enhanced dune erosion and hence a decrease in safety levels. Here, we use the process-based model XBeach to quantify the impact of sea level rise and changing hydrodynamic boundary conditions on the magnitude of future dune erosion at two locations along the Dutch coast. We find a linear relation between sea level rise and dune erosion volume, the exact linear relation being dependent on the local hydrodynamical boundary conditions. The process driving higher erosion appears to be sea level rise, allowing waves to attack the dune at a higher level. Additional simulations illustrate that a change in the offshore wave angle, potentially produced by changes in storm tracks, could influence the erosion volume with the same order of magnitude as sea level rise. Finally, simulations with different mitigation options (i.e., sand nourishments) illustrate the strong effect of the location of the added sand to the reduction in the dune erosion volume.
Highlights
Global warming-induced climate change can have large implications for coastal safety
We explore the impact of sea level rise (SLR) and offshore wave angles θ in the range 0◦ to ∼ 30◦ on dune erosion
Several projections exist for SLR in the North Sea, depending on the climate scenario, the applied general circulation model (GCM), the time frame, and uncertainties in the driving processes behind SLR
Summary
Global warming-induced climate change can have large implications for coastal safety. A region that is already prone to marine flooding and wave-induced erosion in the current climate is the North Sea area. Climatic Change (2017) 141:685–701 in the south are
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