Abstract
The increasing rate of sea level rise (SLR) poses a major threat to coastal lands and natural resources, especially affecting natural preserves and protected areas along the coast. These impacts are likely to exacerbate when combined with storm surges. It is also expected that SLR will cause spatial reduction and migration of coastal wetland and marsh ecosystems, which are common in the natural preserves. This study evaluates the potential impacts of SLR and marsh migration on the hydrodynamics and waves conditions inside natural protected areas during storm surge. The study focused on four protected areas located in different areas of the Chesapeake Bay representing different hydrodynamic regimes. Historical and synthetic storms are simulated using a coupled storm surge (ADCIRC) and wave (SWAN) model for the Bay region for current condition and future scenarios. The future scenarios include different rates of local SLR projections (0.48 m, 0.97 m, 1.68 m, and 2.31 m) and potential land use changes due to SLR driven marsh migration, which is discretized in the selected preserve areas in a coarse scale. The results showed a linear increase of maximum water depth with respect to SLR inside the protected areas. However, the inundation extent, the maximum wave heights, and the current velocities inside the coastal protected areas showed a non-linear relationship with SLR, indicating that the combined impacts of storm surge, SLR, and marsh migration depend on multiple factors such as storm track, intensity, local topography, and locations of coastal protected areas. Furthermore, the impacts of SLR were significantly greater after a 1 m threshold of rise, suggesting the presence of a critical limit for conservation strategies.
Highlights
Both ocean water level records and satellite altimetry from the last century indicate a rise in global sea level [1–4]
The plot for each site shows the percent of inundated area due to storm surge for the current condition and different sea level rise (SLR) scenarios
The results show that SLR and land use change due to marsh migration will increase the inundation in all of the preserve areas
Summary
Both ocean water level records and satellite altimetry from the last century indicate a rise in global sea level [1–4]. In the century sea level is expected to rise at a greater rate than during the past 50 years [5]. The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected that from 1986–2005 to 2081–2100, the global mean sea level will rise by 0.26–0.55 m and by 0.45–0.82 m respectively, under the lowest (RCP2.6) and highest greenhouse-gas concentration scenarios (RCP8.5) [1]. The potential rise in sea level can largely affect coastal ecosystems through increased flooding, salinity, erosion, and loss of wetlands [6]. The loss of coastal wetlands can occur from various reasons [7], studies suggests that sea level rise (SLR) can reduce 22% of the world’s coastal wetlands by the 2080s [8,9]. With projected hurricane intensification over the century [10,11], the combined effects of storm surge and SLR are likely to increase flood impacts in coastal areas [12]
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
