Storm Of December Research Articles

River management and flooding: The lesson of December 2015–January 2016, central USA

The huge winter storm of December 23–29, 2015 delivered heavy rainfall in a broad swath across the USA, deluging East-Central Missouri. Record high river levels were set at many sites, but damages were most pronounced in developed floodplain areas, particularly where high levees were built or river channels greatly narrowed. An average of 20 cm of rain that mostly fell in three days impacted the entire 10 300 km2 Meramec Basin. Compared to the prior record flood of 1982, the highest relative stage (+1.3 m) on Meramec River occurred at Valley Park proximal to (1) a new levee, (2) a landfill in the floodway, (3) large floodplain construction fills, and (4) tributary creek basins impacted by suburban sprawl. Even though only a small fraction of the 1.8 million km2 Mississippi River watershed above St. Louis received extraordinary rainfall during this event, the huge channelized river near and below St. Louis rapidly rose to set the 3rd-highest to the highest stages ever, exhibiting the flashy response typical of a much smaller river.

Modelling storm responses on a high-energy coastline with XBeach

The XBeach model has been used to simulate the morphological impacts of storms on sandy and gravel beaches. Taking as a case study Rossbeigh Spit located on the high-energy coast of western Ireland, the study reported here tests the capacity of XBeach to reproduce barrier breaching during a storm in December 2008. It demonstrates that predictions of the breaching event agree reasonably well with observations. However, the main focus of the paper is to establish using the model results, site-specific critical wave and water level conditions giving rise to dune erosion, overwashing and breaching. By deriving simple-to-use expressions to define hydrodynamic thresholds the study advances the ability to predict the impacts of infrequent and rarely observed storm events and is considered to provide useful coastal management tool for assessing the vulnerability of sandy barriers to breaching high-energy during storms.

Conditions in solar wind and magnetosphere during the nontypical VLF hiss burst on December 8, 2013

The features of the dynamics of solar wind and IMF parameters were studied during the initial phase of the weak magnetic storm of December 8, 2013, where a nontypical two hour lasting wide-band (∼4–10 kHz) hiss burst was recorded during VLF observations in auroral latitudes near Sodankyla observatory (L ∼ 5.5), which differed from classical auroral hiss. A similar VLF hiss burst was recorded at Russian Lovozero observatory, which is located ∼400 km to the east. In contrast to a typical auroral hiss, the VLF emissions at both points were left-polarized and arrived at the observation point from the southeast. Although the VLF hiss burst coincided in time with the development of a substorm and the appearance of zenithal bright auroras near the stations traveling north-south, the excitation of the VLF hiss apparently has no relation to the auroras. It is suggested that the VLF emissions were generated due to cyclotron instability far to the east of Scandinavia in the region of plasmapause at L ∼ 3.5, where the equatorial gyrofrequency (f He) is about 20 kHz. The generated VLF waves could be ducted in the plasmapause at frequencies lower than a half of f He, i.e., below ∼10 kHz, they arrive at the Earth’s surface near the projection of their source and propagate in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide to large distances, as left-polarized waves. A sharp increase in the solar wind dynamic pressure was noted during the hiss burst under study, which resulted in a significant contraction of the daytime magnetosphere, a shift of the plasmapause and radiation belt to lower L shells, and the development of a substorm and southward travel of auroral arcs. The VLF hiss may have been generated in the region where energetic particles of the radiation belt crossed the plasmapause. The fact that the hiss under study was generated not in the early morning sector (Scandinavian meridian), but much further to the east, could be indirectly confirmed by quasiperiodic modulation of the VLF noise intensity in the range of Pc5 geomagnetic pulsations, which were observed in this period at eastern stations but not at the Scandinavian meridian.

The winter storms of 2013/2014 in the UK: hydrological responses and impacts

This paper outlines the hydrological aspects of the 2013/2014 winter flooding in the UK, as well as the impacts. The episode is considered in a long-term historical context and wider issues raised by the flood events are discussed briefly.

Dynamic response of a rocky cliff under the sea wave pulse: a study along the Adriatic coast of Polignano (Apulia, Italy)

The dynamic behavior of a rocky cliff under severe sea waves has been analyzed in the location of Polignano, facing on the Adriatic coast of Apulia, Southern Italy. In this area, the classical and, at the same time, complex problem of the stability of a cliff in calcareous rocks is burdened by the presence on the top of the cliff of the ancient town. To analyze the behavior of the cliff under the impulsive transfer of energy generated by the sea waves, two types of measures were carried out on the rocky mass: (1) ambient noise and (2) strong-motion records. The first type of measures, which may be executed in a short time with a high spatial density, has provided a recognition of the intrinsic and anisotropic dynamic behavior of the coastal cliff. The accelerometric records, carried out during heavy storms in December 2009 and January 2010, allowed to evaluate the energy transfer from waves to cliff, in terms of maximum values and temporal and directional distribution. To facilitate a correct interpretation of the measures, also a geomechanical characterization of the rocky mass has been carried out through the Rock Mass Rating system Bieniawski (The Geomechanics Classification in Rock Engineering Applications. Proceedings of the 4th ISRM Cong., Montreux, pp 51–58, 1979), Bieniawski (Engineering Rock Mass Classifications. Wiley, New York, p 251,1989) and the Markland’s test (A useful technique for estimating the stability of rock slopes when the rigid wedge sliding type of failure is expected, pp 10,1972). The first allowed to classify the rocky masses in terms of quality, the second one to individuate the potential failure mechanisms of the cliff.

The statistics of wave height and crest elevation during the December 2012 storm in the North Sea

This paper concerns new field measurements of wave height and crest elevation probability distributions as measured in the North Sea during a storm in December 2012. The water surface elevation was recorded by Saab WaveRadar REX instruments mounted on eight fixed-jacket platforms in addition to a Datawell Directional Waverider buoy. The storm generated an easterly sea state which peaked well in excess of the 100-year wave height for that direction in the region. Furthermore, 19 freak waves occurred during the storm according to the definition as reported by Haver (2000). The present study demonstrates that the significant steepness and spectral bandwidth during the storm remain almost constant. Consequently, there is little change in the commonly applied design wave height and crest elevation probability distributions throughout the storm. Whilst the bulk of the recorded data was in good agreement with the theoretical distributions, it was demonstrated that when the wind speed was larger than 25 m/s, the measured crest elevation lies above the second-order Forristall distribution.

Multi-instrument observations of plasma features in the Arctic ionosphere during the main phase of a geomagnetic storm in December 2006

Arctic ionospheric variations during the main phase of a magnetic storm on 14–15 December, 2006 were investigated to characterize the high energy particle precipitation caused effects, based on multi-instrument observations. These include electron density observations provided by the Global Positioning System (GPS) total electron content (TEC) measurements, European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) radar, the radio occultation (RO) from both the CHAMP satellite and the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) satellite, as well as the ionospheric absorption of cosmic radio noise measured by the Imaging Riometer for Ionospheric Studies (IRIS) at Kilpisjärvi in the northern Finland (69.05°N, 20.79°E). Significant increases in the electron density for these different observations were found in the Arctic ionosphere during the main phase of the magnetic storm. These increase occurred in Scandinavian, Northwest part of Russia and Svalbard (SNRS) region, primarily at an altitude of about 110km. These results are first reported for the SNRS region, and our study contributes to a more complete description of this space weather event during 14–15 December, 2006. Our observations also provide direct evidence that the stormtime E-layer electron density enhancement (e.g., the sporadic E) can form a nearly dominant portion in the observed TEC increase. These increases were accompanied by the ionospheric absorption enhancement at the altitude of about 90km. The Y-component of magnetic field to the south of SNRS decreased, indicating strong upward field aligned electric current in the Arctic ionosphere. These features are interpreted as the effect of the high energy electron precipitation during the magnetic storm, which is caused by the sub-storm reflected on AL index and the measurements of IMAGE (International Monitor for Auroral Geomagnetic Effects) chain. The average energy of the precipitation electrons reached to about 10keV and the boundary of the high energy electron precipitation was also found to move poleward with a speed of about 800m/s.

ASSESSMENT OF COASTAL FLOODING AT SOUTHERN MEDITERRANEAN WITH GLOBAL OUTLOOK FOR LOWLAND COASTAL ZONES

This paper presents an assessment of the performance of a shoreline revetment; M. Ali Seawall, placed to protect the land behind against flooding and overtopping at coastal site, within Abu Qir Bay, East of Alexandria along the Nile Delta coast. Coastal zone management of the bay coastline is of utmost significance to the protection of the low agricultural land and the industrial complex located in the rear side of the seawall under the current and progressive effects of climate change. The latest storm in December 2010, which hit the Nile Delta and which was the severest in the last decades showed that generated surges, up to 1.0 m as well as a maximum of 7.5 m wave height in the offshore of Alexandria presented a major natural hazard in coastal zones in terms of wave run up and overtopping. The storm, fortunately, resulted in a partial and modest flooding of the zone behind the seawall particularly in the beach segment, located in the middle of the seawall. This research project aims to the design review of the seawall which was first constructed in 1830 to protect the lowland agricultural area, 2.0 m below mean sea level, and was rehabilitated in 1981 as part of the Master Plan of the Nile Delta Coastal Zone Management. The seawall was further upgraded in 2009; one year before the 2010 storm. The paper will give an overview of the seawall design and its upgrades and the current conducted hydrodynamic analyses to estimate wave height distributions, wave run up and overtopping over the seawall and its beach segment. Use has been made of the in-house modified ImSedTran-2D model as well as universal design standards as EurOtop (2008). Based on the results for worst design scenarios, recommendations are given to increase the height of the seawall cap, to strengthen the beach top and back slope with a facility to drain storm water to increase coastal resilience behind the seawall. Comparison of the predicted overtopping with the observed wave overtopping volumes during the 8hrs-2010 storm, allowed the verification of the used universal design tools. Impact of precise estimate of storm and barometric surge as well as seawall armor roughness and shapes on overtopping rates are highlighted.

Assessment of the possibility of using E. A. Ponomarev’s magnetospheric substorm model to analyze geomagnetic disturbances during the magnetic storms of December 14 and 15, 2006

Spatial distributions of pressure and fluxes of precipitating magnetospheric plasma particles were constructed for the strong magnetic storm of December 14 and 15, 2006. The calculations were performed using a model developed by E.A. Ponomarev. Geotail and ACE satellite data were used to specify realistic initial and boundary conditions. The model results were compared with the spatial distribution of the field of geomagnetic disturbances recorded by ground-based magnetic observatories during the storm. The results show that the model (in its current form) provides good agreement between latitudinal displacements of electron precipitations and auroral electrojets but fails to reflect their longitudinal structure. The model fails to yield the strong westward electrojet observed by all auroral zone observatories during the main phase of the magnetic storm.

Upper atmosphere nightglow disturbances during the geomagnetic storm of December 15, 2006 over Eastern Siberia

Variations in the OI 630 and OI 557.7 nm nightglow intensities in the midlatitude thermosphere during the geomagnetic storm of December 14–15, 2006, are analyzed. The analysis is based on optical, digisonde, and GPS observations for Eastern Siberia (52° N, 103° E). Simultaneous disturbances of variations, similar in amplitude and shape, in the emissions under study were observed during this storm. At the same time, the variations in the OI 630 and OI 557.7 nm airglow intensities correlated with the total electron content. It has been suggested that the 557.7 nm emission disturbances in this case can be caused by the O 2 + dissociative recombination reaction and variations in parameters of the ionospheric F layer. To interpret the ratio of the observed OI 557.7 and 630 nm disturbed airglow intensities, we have simulated their altitude profiles.

Early post-release survival of stranded Cape fur seal pups at Black Rocks, Algoa Bay, South Africa

The small and isolated Cape fur seal Arctocephalus pusillus pusillus rookery at Black Rocks, Algoa Bay, South Africa, is an important component of the marine biota of the Addo Elephant National Park. Although little is known of the demographics of this rookery, it is believed to be declining in abundance. The pupping season for this population coincides with summer storms that often wash pups from Blacks Rocks. In the past, many that washed up on the mainland were rescued and returned to their colony. However, the necessity and value of this exercise has been questioned. The displacement of 200 pups from their rookery following a severe storm in December 2008 presented an opportunity to follow the early survival of rescued pups that were returned to Black Rocks. Tag resightings of those that were adequately tagged (n = 52) were obtained during five visits to Black Rocks over a period of 3½ months. The results indicated that about one-quarter of tagged pups survived. This is the first study to demonstrate substantial short-term survival of otariid pups following rehabilitation and return to the wild.

Integrating anthropogenic factors, geomorphological indicators and local knowledge in the analysis of coastal flooding and erosion hazards

The settlement and development of Québec’s maritime coastline has generally taken place without consideration for coastal dynamics and coastal hazards. Consequently, fighting coastal erosion has become a necessity. Until now, the construction of rigid walls and encroachments has been the preferred approach to the problem. In the Chaleur Bay region, coastal communities are particularly vulnerable to erosion and flooding because a number of residential, commercial and transportation infrastructures have been installed on beach terraces and sand spits. Recent storms, such as the storm of December 2, 2005, have made possible a better understanding of how these rigid defence structures amplify the effects of storm surges and waves. These structures drive the sand away from the coast, lowering beach levels and even causing beaches to vanish entirely from the areas situated in front of the defence structures. The end result is a weakening of the natural capacity of these coastal systems to absorb the energy of waves and a greater risk of coastal flooding. An integrated approach using local knowledge on the one hand, along with LIDAR surveys and a DGPS system on the other hand, have made possible to map the levels reached by flooding at the time of the storm. The results indicate that such levels vary greatly in spatial terms and that the difference between the levels actually reached and the water level measured by tide gauge can be as much as 2 m; a difference that is due to anthropogenic perturbations. This raises questions concerning the safety and the reference levels used for mapping coastal flooding risk. Taking into account knowledge of local communities, analysis of water levels, geomorphological indicators and aggravating anthropogenic factors, an approach and basic criteria are put forward with a view of establishing a reference level for the mapping of flood risk that can be used by community land-use planners.

Effects of storm events on the shelf-to-basin sediment transport in the southwestern end of the Gulf of Lions (Northwestern Mediterranean)

Abstract. Shelf-to-basin sediment transport during storms was studied at the southwestern end of the Gulf of Lions from November 2003 to March 2004. Waves, near-bottom currents, temperature and sediment fluxes were measured on the inner shelf at 28-m depth, in the Cap de Creus submarine canyon head at 300-m depth and in the northwestern Mediterranean basin at 2350-m depth. This paper is a synthesis of results published separately in different papers; it includes some new data and focusses on the subject of storms. It is the first paper in which simultaneous data about the effect of storms on the shelf, the slope and in the basin are shown together. During the winter studied, there were two severe E-SE storms with significant wave heights ≥ 7 m: one in December 2003 and one in February 2004. During these storms, coastal water was exported off-shelf producing strong near-bottom currents (up to 82 cm s−1) at the canyon head that resuspended sediment and increased the downcanyon sediment fluxes by several orders of magnitude. The suspended sediment flux increase in the canyon head was much larger during the February storm than during the December storm. At the deep basin site, particle fluxes also increased drastically (1–2 orders of magnitude) immediately after the February storm but not after the December storm. The reason was that the February storm was reinforced by dense shelf water cascading and was long enough (43 h) to transfer large amounts of resuspended sediment from shallow shelf areas to the canyon head and from there to the northwestern Mediterranean basin. Thus, in the western Gulf of Lions, severe winter E-SE storms occurring during the dense shelf water cascading period can significantly increase the transfer to deep-sea (> 2000 m) environments of shelf and slope resuspended material, including anthropogenic contaminants and organic matter.

Major Extratropical Cyclones of the Northwest United States: Historical Review, Climatology, and Synoptic Environment

Abstract The northwest United States is visited frequently by strong midlatitude cyclones that can produce hurricane-force winds and extensive damage. This article reviews these storms, beginning with a survey of the major events of the past century. A climatology of strong windstorms is presented for the area from southern Oregon to northern Washington State and is used to create synoptic composites that show the large-scale evolution associated with such storms. A recent event, the Hanukkah Eve Storm of December 2006, is described in detail, with particular attention given to the impact of the bent-back front/trough and temporal changes in vertical stability and structure. The discussion section examines the general role of the bent-back trough, the interactions of such storms with terrain, and the applicability of the “sting jet” conceptual model. A conceptual model of the evolution of Northwest windstorm events is presented.

Effects observed in the ionospheric F-region in the South American sector during the intense geomagnetic storm of 14 December 2006

This investigation presents observations related to the generation of equatorial ionospheric irregularities (also known as equatorial spread F (ESF)) including ionospheric plasma bubbles and dynamic behavior of the ionospheric F-region in the South American sector during an intense geomagnetic storm in December 2006 (a period of low solar activity). In this work, ionospheric sounding observations and GPS data obtained between 13 and 16 December 2006 at several stations in the South American sector are presented. On the geomagnetically disturbed night of 14 and 15 December, ionospheric plasma bubbles were observed after an unusual uplifting of the F-region during pre-reversal enhancement (PRE) period. The unusual uplifting of the F-region during PRE was possibly associated with prompt penetration of electric field of magnetospheric origin. During the geomagnetic disturbance night of 14 and 15 December, strong oscillations due to the propagation of traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) by the Joule heating in the auroral region were observed in the F-region at São José dos Campos (SJC, 23.2°S, 45.9°W; dip latitude 17.6°S), Brazil, and Port Stanley (PST, 51.6°S, 57.9°W; geom. latitude 41.6°S). The VTEC-GPS observations presented on the night of 14 and 15 December 2006 show both positive and negative storm phases in the South American sector, possibly due to changes in the large-scale wind circulation and changes in the O/N 2 ratio in the southern hemisphere, respectively.

Effects of storm Lothar (1999) on the chemical composition of soil solutions and on herbaceous cover, humus and soils (Fougères, France)

Examination of the effect of the 1999 storm on soil solution quality in an 81-year-old monitored plot in Fougères forest has not only made it possible to gain a better understanding of the impact of intensive silviculture in this ecosystem with low mineral fertility, but also to show that the cessation of internal recycling of chemical elements can be prevented by the presence of vegetation. The storm in December, 1999 resulted in several sudden openings in the forest cover, resulting in humus mineralization; the moder humus present before the storm was transformed rapidly into an oligomull. In the absence of any vegetation, the nitrates produced at the surface migrated down the profile by slow convective flux and the concentrations at depths of −10 and −30 cm increased during 2000. Herbaceous vegetation gradually replaced the arborescent strata present before the storm, taking-up the nitrate at the surface and thus limiting leaching into the deeper horizons. As convective transport is a slow process, the concentrations of nitrate in the soil solutions at depths of −55, −80 and −120 cm increased for about a year after the storm; then they decreased and stabilised in 2002. Nitrate leaching was accompanied by the migration of Al, Mg, K and Ca down the soil profile, depending on their relative availability. After the definitive installation of the herbaceous strata, the concentrations of elements in soil solutions returned to levels below those measured before the storm.

Is the North Atlantic hurricane season getting longer?

In the 2008 North Atlantic hurricane season, July was anomalously active with four tropical storms, of which two intensified to become hurricanes. The 2007 season experienced an uncommon May storm and an equally uncommon December storm. The 2005 season was the most active in the secular record, and was also anomalously active during the typically quiescent early and late portions of the season. This recent increase in early‐ and late‐season activity has raised questions about the effect that climate change may be having on the length of the hurricane season. Here I report on the observed trends in the annual distribution of North Atlantic tropical storm formation events and their relationship with tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST). I find an apparent tendency toward more common early‐ and late‐season storms that correlates with warming SST, but the uncertainty in these relationships is high.

Solar proton increases and dynamics of the electron outer radiation belt during solar events in December 2006

Increases in solar protons and variations in the electron and proton fluxes from the outer radiation belt are studied based on the GLONASS satellite measurements (the circular orbit at an altitude of ∼20000 km with an inclination of ∼65°) performed in December 2006. Indications in the channels, registered protons with energies of Ep = 3–70 MeV and electrons with energies of Ee > 0.04 and >0.8 MeV, are analyzed. The data on electrons with Ee = 0.8–1.2 MeV, measured on the Express-A3 geostationary satellite, are also presented. Before the strong magnetic storm of December 14 (|Dst|max = 146 nT), the maximum of the outer belt electrons with the energy >0.7 MeV was observed at L ∼ 4.5. After the storm, the fluxes of these electrons increased by more than an order of magnitude as compared to the prestorm level, and the maximum of a “new” belt shifted to L 3 MeV fill only high-latitude legs of the GLONASS orbit. During the strong magnetic storm of December 15, the boundary of proton penetration into the magnetosphere almost merged with the orbital maximum of the proton radiation belt.

A Wavelet Representation of Synoptic-Scale Coherent Structures

Midlatitude cyclogenesis as interpreted in the framework of either baroclinic development or potential vorticity thinking heavily relies on the concept of synoptic-scale anomaly. Given the existence of potential vorticity inversion and attribution, what is at stake to provide a mathematical definition for this concept is a complete finite-amplitude alternative to the linear-based theory of cyclogenesis. The existence of a reasonably objective way to represent anomalies in both real and idealized flows would not only help understanding cyclogenesis, it would also have many other applications for both theory and in practical forecasts. Inspired by the recent theory of wavelet representation of coherent structures in two-dimensional fluid mechanics, a wavelet representation of three-dimensional potential vorticity anomalies is built. This algorithm relies on the selection of the appropriate two-dimensional wavelet coefficients from the stationary wavelet transform in order to guarantee the critical translation-invariance property. The sensitivity of the algorithm to the position, size, and shape of the structures is assessed.The wavelet extraction is then applied to the upper-level precursor of a real-case storm of December 1999 and is compared to a basic monopolar extraction. Using potential vorticity inversion and forecasts with a primitive-equation model, it is found that both anomalies have similar implications on the development of the surface cyclone. However, the coherence in time of the extracted wavelet structure in the forecast and analysis sequence is more satisfactory than the extracted monopole: this suggests that the underlying mathematical description of an anomaly proposed here does, indeed, point toward the direction of an actual physical reality of the concept.

Simulating the 1999 Capbreton canyon turbidity current with a Cellular Automata model

A numerical model has been developed for the simulation of turbidity currents driven by nonuniform, non cohesive sediment and flowing over a complex three dimensional submarine topography. The model is based on an alternative approach known as Cellular Automata paradigm. The model is validated by comparing a simulation with a reported field-scale event. The chosen case is a turbidity current which occurred in Capbreton Canyon and was initiated by a storm in December 1999. Using data from recent oceanographic cruises, the deposit of the event has been precisely described, which constrain values of model parameters. The model simulates the 1999 turbidity current over the actual canyon topography and related turbidite using three different types of particle. The model successfully simulates areas of erosion and deposition in the canyon. It predicts the vertical and longitudinal grain size evolution, and shows that the fining-up sequence can be deposited by several phases of deposition and erosion related to the current energetic variation during its evolution. This result could explain the presence of intrabed contacts or the frequent lack of facies in Bouma sequences.