Storm Activity Research Articles

Lessons learnt from a real-time attribution and contextualisation trial in a National Meteorological and Hydrological Service

Abstract When a record hot month occurs, timely and credible attribution and contextualisation information can enhance public understanding and future preparedness. This is particularly effective if provided in real time by a National Meteorological and Hydrological Service (NMHS). Many NMHSs are working to integrate research-based attribution methods into their operational services. In this study, researchers and climate service staff collaborated to assess the feasibility of delivering such information swiftly and aligned with standard NMHS data and procedures. The record warm July (winter) temperatures of Tasmania, Australia in 2023 were chosen to illustrate the trial. Rapid results were available three days after the event. Approximately half of the unusual warmth was attributed to climate change, with the likelihood of breaking the previous record at least 17 times higher in the current climate compared to a stationary pre-industrial climate (14% vs. 0.4%). The warming trend became evident in the 1980s, and by 2060, average July temperatures in Tasmania match the record temperature of July 2023 under a high emissions scenario. However, average July minimum temperatures were not well modelled, necessitating the addition of a higher-resolution forecast-based attribution method. In subsequent analysis, almost all the forecast temperature anomaly, and reduced storm activity, was attributable to climate change. Statistical analysis revealed that a weak El Niño partly offset the unusual warmth. To expedite these additional approaches, information drawn from real-time forecasts could be used. Lessons learnt from this trial include technical improvements to align better with NMHS protocols including using consistent datasets and baselines, and refining and automating the method suite. Logistical and communication enhancements included training staff to run the suite, improving communication materials, and developing delivery channels. These learnings provide key considerations for NMHSs as they move towards providing timely and credible climate attribution and contextualisation information as part of their operational services.

Traffic Bottlenecks: Predicting Atmospheric Blocking With a Diminishing Flow Capacity

AbstractAtmospheric blocking is characterized by persistent anticyclones that “block” the midlatitude jet stream, causing temperature and precipitation extremes. The traffic jam theory posits that blocking events occur when the Local Wave Activity flux, a measure of storm activity, exceeds the carrying capacity of the jet stream, leading to a pile up. The theory's efficacy for prediction is tested with atmospheric reanalysis by defining “exceedance events”, the time and location where wave activity first exceeds flow capacity. The theory captures the Northern Hemisphere winter blocking climatology, with strong spatial correlation between exceedance and blocking events. Both events are favored not only by low carrying capacity (narrow roads), but also a downstream reduction in capacity (lane closures causing a bottleneck). The theory fails, however, to accurately predict blocking events in time. Exceedance events are not a useful predictor of an imminent block, suggesting that confounding factors explain their shared climatological structure.

Paleostorm redeposition and post-glacial coastal chronology in the eastern Baltic Sea, Latvia

The 494 km long Latvian coast consists of sandy sediments, which serve as an excellent proxy for past coastal events and environment. Our study explores these understudied sediments along the western coast of the Gulf of Riga and combines two sand quartz-wise methods: optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating and grain microtextures. We provide a new chronology and microsedimentary results to trace post-glacial storm events and discuss correlations within the Baltic Sea region and elsewhere in Europe. OSL ages reveal a wide time span between 10.38 ± 0.61 ka and 1.04 ± 0.05 ka BP, but their inconsistency in the profiles along with the onshore position of landforms and gravelly horizons argues for sediment relocation due to storm action. A first paleostorm phase is dated to between 7.6 ± 1.2 ka and 4.63 ± 0.27 ka, corresponding with a transgression of the Littorina Sea and the Holocene Thermal Maximum, and with a roughly estimated vertical sediment redeposition above 5 m similar with the recent storms in the region. Sedimentary record from microstudy supports intense storm activity, especially in sediments redeposited after 6.07 ± 0.51 ka, and it is seen through an increased number of cracked quartz grains, shiny grains and fresh surfaces combined with a limited number of V-shaped marks. Weaker storm action, recorded by a lower share of cracked grains in the sediments, occurred between 7.6 ± 1.2 ka and 6.07 ± 0.51 ka.A second storm phase occurred at 1.44 ± 0.21 ka, corresponding with the post-Littorina, again with a performance of a weaker storm. Apart from the palaeostorm records, the beach ridges developed between 5.16 ± 0.33 ka and 4.47 ± 0.31 ka along with drier conditions when aeolian deposition took place twice: at 4.63 ± 0.27 ka and 1.55 ± 0.10 ka.

Impacts of Greenland Ice Sheet on Blocking in Idealized Simulations

Abstract As the only remaining ice sheet in the Northern Hemisphere, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) plays a crucial role in influencing atmospheric circulations, particularly with its rapid melting under global warming. In this paper, the influences of GrIS topography and surface thermal conditions are investigated by a series of aquaplanet experiments. The results show that the GrIS topography induces stationary waves and favors more blocking events through the generation of negative potential vorticity (PV) anomalies, while it tends to suppress local storm activities through the induced stationary waves. The surface cooling center of the GrIS is found to strengthen the jet streams by enhancing the meridional temperature gradient and thermal wind, while it causes the PV and static stability to increase during near-Greenland blocking days, thereby disfavoring blocking onset. Altogether, the topography and surface thermal effects of GrIS appear to compete with each other so that the net effect would determine the final response. Nevertheless, nonlinearity is found in both GrIS-topography alone and GrIS-surface temperature alone experiments, where nonlinear responses of atmospheric circulation are detected when the GrIS topography height or surface temperature exceeds their critical values, respectively. Hence, through this study, the response of the blocking in the vicinity of Greenland to the combined effects of topography and surface thermal conditions may shed light on comprehending the underlying mechanism of blocking alteration in a changing climate. Significance Statement Although there have been numerous observation-based studies showing that the blocking around Greenland has increased over the past few decades, which is a predominant driver in accelerating the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) melting, the reasons for this change are still unclear. In addition, the impact of GrIS on blocking still needs investigation. Through idealized aquaplanet simulations, this study examines the effect of GrIS’s topography and surface thermal conditions upon blocking onset. It suggests the nonlinearity of the blocking response in the vicinity of Greenland to the combined effects in the variation of the height and surface temperature of GrIS. This study will enhance our understanding of possible changes in blocking due to global warming.

Synoptic Conditions at Pressure Different Levels for the Dust Storm of May/ 2022 Over Iraq

This study examines the severe dust storm from May 12-16/2022,culminating on May 15, with a comprehensive analysis and explanation. The weather maps from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) weather maps were used to identify systems and patterns that contributed to the storm's activity, continuity, and tracking as well as maps of pressure compounds and wind vectors in levels 1000 and 850 mbar that appear with the dust state for the same days accompanied by tracking patterns in the middle of the turbosphere 500 mbar to give a comprehensive analytical view of climate conditions at each level of pressure and higher systems supportive of their persistence on the surface. The northwesterly winds are the main factor that carries dust over long distances. The eastern desert in Syria, the Empty Quarter in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the desert of western Iran, and the desert region of western Iraq are among the main sources of dust In its atmosphere. Based on weather maps of the surface and upper levels of storm days, the concentration of dust reached very high levels in Iraq's airspace and surrounding countries, including Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria. The intensity of the dust gradually decreased as the area was affected by wet westerly winds with relatively low temperatures and a relative increase in wind speeds due to the impact of the study area on the atmospheric decline centered around the Turkish island of Cyprus.

The diurnal variation of dust and water ice aerosol optical depth at Jezero crater observed by MEDA/TIRS over a full Martian year

The Thermal InfraRed Sensor (TIRS) on the Perseverance rover has provided nearly two full Mars years of systematic monitoring of the total aerosol optical depth above Jezero Crater. These observations span a wide range of timescales, capturing seasonal patterns, diurnal variations, and minute-to-minute fluctuations in aerosol loading. By combining TIRS retrievals with orbital observations, the relative contributions of dust and water ice aerosols can be estimated, revealing their different seasonal and diurnal behaviors. The TIRS record shows distinct periods of dust storm activity, including strong regional storms during the perihelion season as well as short-lived but intense dust events outside the typical dust storm season. Water ice clouds exhibit pronounced seasonal and diurnal variability, with peak activity occurring during the aphelion season but with a presence throughout the year. The diurnal variation of clouds differs significantly between the aphelion and perihelion seasons, with clouds persisting throughout the night during the aphelion season, while largely absent outside of specific periods after sunrise and sunset during the perihelion season. These results provide new insights into the complex behavior of aerosols at Jezero Crater and their connections to atmospheric dynamics and the Martian dust and water cycles.

Assessing flash flood erosion following storm Daniel in Libya

The eastern Mediterranean basin is witnessing increased storm activity impacting populous urban coastal areas that historically were not prone to catastrophic flooding. In the fall of 2023, Storm Daniel struck the eastern coast of Libya, causing unprecedented flash floods with a tragic death toll and large-scale infrastructure damages. We use Sentinel-1A C-band SAR images to characterize the resulting flash flood erosion and sediment load dynamics across the watersheds and to map damages within coastal cities at their outlets. Our results suggest that sediment loading, resulting from surface erosion, increased the density of turbid streams. The above exacerbated the catastrophic impact of the flash floods in the coastal cities of Derna and Susah, where 66% and 48% of their respective urban surface have experienced moderate-to-high damages. Our findings highlight the increased vulnerability of coastal watersheds in arid areas within the eastern Mediterranean basin due to the forecasted increase in hydroclimatic extremes and call for a transformative coastal management approach to urgently implement nature-based solutions and land-use changes to mitigate these rising risks.

Heterogeneous marine response during the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (TOAE): The potential role of storminess

The Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (TOAE; ∼183 Ma) represents an important hyperthermal and deoxygenation event in the Early Jurassic. However, TOAE marine records are spatially heterogeneous with regard to nutrient levels, primary productivity, redox conditions and organic enrichment. This non-uniform response to global hyperwarming is not readily accounted for by local variations in paleogeography, climate, or water depth. Largely overlooked to date is the intensified storm activity that characterized the TOAE, and the role that this may have played in controlling marine responses to that event. A review of TOAE studies from multiple marine environments suggests that storm intensity covaried with paleoceanographic conditions, such as nutrient availability, primary productivity, redox conditions, and organic-rich sedimentation. At mid-paleolatitude sites, relatively weak storm activity during the TOAE induced short-term watermass oxygenation, and marine settings were mainly characterized by enhanced anoxia (even euxinia), water-column stratification, increased primary productivity (fueled by terrestrial runoff and P regeneration in euxinic settings), and organic-rich sedimentation. At low-paleolatitude sites, TOAE storm activity was relatively strong, and contributed to marine environments characterized by oxic to suboxic conditions, reduced water-column stratification, decreased primary productivity (possibly due to limited P regeneration and upwelling), low sedimentary organic content, and locally high oolite abundance. TOAE marine sites at all paleolatitudes exhibit: i) sea-level rise and enhanced continental weathering fluxes linked to an intensified hydrological cycle; ii) reduced dinoflagellate and increased cyanobacterial activity; and iii) low δ15N values (mainly −1‰ to +3‰) linked to enhanced diazotrophic nitrogen fixation. The spatial heterogeneity of the response of TOAE marine systems is difficult to reconcile with scenarios linking increased terrestrial flux to marine eutrophication, primary productivity increase and organic-rich sedimentation. Consequently, we hypothesize that the intensity of storm activity influenced TOAE marine systems, and that this factor can, at least partially, account for heterogeneous patterns of environmental changes at middle versus low paleolatitudes and open versus restricted marine settings. Importantly, increased storm activity can induce pycnocline deepening via vertical water-column mixing, thereby promoting: i) enhanced aerobic degradation of organic matter (low sediment organic matter content) due to a reduced oxygen-minimum zone; ii) less nutrient upwelling from deep waters into the photic zone (nutrient-depleted upper ocean), and iii) blooms of nitrogen-fixing cyanobacteria (low δ15N) and calcification (ooid formation). Thus, the interaction between storminess and pycnocline depth is a potentially important factor affecting marine environmental changes during TOAE. These findings have implications for modern oceans now experiencing climatic warming and intensified tropical storm activity.

Holocene dust storm variations across northern monsoonal Asia and arid central Asia: Contrasting impacts of climate change

Arid inner Asia, encompassing northern monsoonal Asia (NMA) and arid central Asia (ACA), is the world's second largest dust source region, emitting large quantities of dust particles that travel vast distances around the globe. Previous studies have revealed that the precipitation/moisture variations between NMA and ACA show an out-of-phase or anti-phase relationship on a multi-millennial timescale during the Holocene. However, considering the profound impact of precipitation and related vegetation changes on dust storms, it is unclear whether disparities exist in the variations and mechanisms governing Holocene dust storms between these two regions. Here we use a compilation of Holocene dust storm records from both NMA and ACA, combined with proxy–model comparisons, to demonstrate a consistent temporal pattern of dust storm activity between these regions, with an overall increasing trend on a multi-millennial timescale during the Holocene. Comparison of these dust storm records with regional climate records reveals that surface landscape dominated by the summer monsoon precipitation were the dominant controls on dust storm activity in NMA during the Holocene. In contrast, given the Holocene wetting trend observed for ACA, we propose that precipitation had only a limited influence on modulating the regional dust storms in this region; furthermore, the increasing frequency of dust storms cannot be attributed to decreasing winter monsoon intensity. Instead, we argue that the intensified dust storms in ACA during the late Holocene were triggered by the increased strength and northward (southward) movement of the spring (summer) westerly jet. By revealing the differences in the mechanisms of dust storms across arid inner Asia, our findings provide a scientific basis for implementing policies for dust storm management that can be adapted to meet specific local conditions.

The Siberian High drove increasing dust storm activity on the Tibetan Plateau on the centennial scale during the past 2000 years

Precipitation records from the Tibetan Plateau (TP) for the past ∼2000 years show a north–south dipole pattern. Precipitation is one of the main factors affecting dust storms in this region, but it is unclear whether regional differences exist in dust storm activity and its driving mechanisms across the entire TP, and whether these mechanisms were consistent on the Holocene millennial scale and the centennial scale during the past 2000 years. To address this uncertainty, we reconstructed a high-resolution record of dust storm activity for the past ∼2000 years from an undisturbed lake site on the southwestern TP, in an area which is poorly investigated. We found that dust storm activity gradually increased over the past 2000 years and peaked during the Little Ice Age (LIA). Comparison with other dust storm records revealed a consistent trend of dust storm intensification across the entire TP, which contradicts the previously proposed north–south dipole pattern of precipitation variation. To explain this, we propose that dust storm outbreaks across the entire TP during the LIA were driven by the spatial coupling between TP dust source areas and cold fronts resulting from an enhanced Siberian High (SH). Compared with the driving mechanism of the millennial-scale variations of the westerly jet during the Holocene, there was a clear shift to SH intensity as the principal driving mechanism of TP dust storms on the centennial timescale. Overall, our findings demonstrate different degrees of importance of these two hemispheric-scale circulations for dust storm activity across the entire TP, on different time scales, forming a scientific foundation for dust storm management on a global scale.

Analysis of TEC variations and prediction of TEC by RNN during Indonesian earthquakes occurred from 2004 to 2024 and comparison with IRI-2020 model

The Ionosphere, a crucial region of Earth’s atmosphere extending from approximately 50 to 1000 km above the Earth’s surface, plays a pivotal role in global communication, navigation, and satellite-based technologies. Among its various parameters, Total Electron Content (TEC) stands out as a key metric, representing the integrated electron density along a specific path through the ionosphere. This research focuses on analyzing TEC variations during Indonesian earthquakes between 2004 and 2024 using a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) model. The study investigates the ionospheric response to seismic activity, particularly in Indonesia, a region prone to earthquakes due to its location within the Pacific Ring of Fire and complex tectonic setting involving multiple lithospheric plates. The RNN model, designed to predict TEC variations during earthquakes, utilizes data on solar and geomagnetic activity, including the Kp index, solar wind, and geomagnetic storm activity, obtained from the OMNIWEB data centre, along with TEC data from the IONOLAB data servers for the BAKO station in Cibinong, Indonesia. The earthquakes considered for observation include significant events such as the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami, the 2012 Wharton Basin earthquake, and subsequent seismic events up to 2024. Statistical metrics such as Mean Bias Deviation (MBD), Relative Error (REL_E), Absolute Error (ABS_E), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) are used to evaluate the predictive capability of the RNN model and compare it with the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) 2020 model, a widely accepted empirical model for describing ionospheric parameters. The comparison reveals the performance of the RNN model in capturing TEC variations during seismic events, providing valuable insights for earthquake monitoring and early warning systems.

Pharmacological validation of a novel exopolysaccharide from Streptomyces sp. 139 to effectively inhibit cytokine storms

With the rapid development of immunotherapy in recent years, cytokine storm has been recognized as a common adverse effect of immunotherapy. The emergence of COVID-19 has renewed global attention to it. The cytokine storm's inflammatory response results in infiltration of large amounts of monocytes/macrophages in the lungs, heart, spleen, lymph nodes, and kidneys. This infiltration leads to secondary tissue damage, acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), organismal damage, and even death. However, there is currently no designated treatment for cytokine storm and the resulting ARDS. Consequently, there is a pressing need to identify a pharmaceutical agent that can effectively mitigate cytokine storms. Ebosin is a new exopolysaccharide generated by Streptomyces sp.139 and pharmacological activity for cytokine storm is investigated in vivo. The results show that Ebosin significantly augments the survival rates of mice, and its effectiveness increases with higher doses. It significantly inhibited the expression of cytokines IL-5, IL-6, IL-9 and chemokine Eotaxin in serum and lung tissues. Ebosin can alleviate the pathological damage in the lungs, liver, and spleen caused by LPS. Additionally, it can inhibit the phosphorylation of IKKα/β, Stat3 and NF-κB p65 upon LPS stimulation in vitro. We hypothesized that Ebosin may decrease cytokine release by inhibiting the phosphorylation of IKKα/β, Stat3, and NF-κB p65, neutrophil infiltration in animals. The article preliminarily elucidated the activity and mechanism of Ebosin against cytokine storm, which provides a reference for the study of anti-cytokine storm activity of microbial natural products.

Coastal processes and dune stability: Insights from wave transmission and runup modeling

Dunes not only serve as natural landscapes but also act as crucial natural barriers protecting coastlines from storm surges. However, the stability of coastlines and dunes is further affected by climate change-induced sea level rise and increased storm activity. An effective evaluation of dune stability necessitates the collection of parameters such as wave height, changes in dune crest elevation, and dune erosion rates. This research employs wave flumes and high-speed camera technology in laboratory settings to observe and simulate coastal dynamics under overwash and collision regimes. The study investigates wave propagation under both regimes using the XBeach model. In the overwash regime, the model slightly overestimates the values of infragravity waves, whereas its accuracy improved under the collision regime. Moreover, in the overwash regime, higher wave skewness results in more sediment transport to the shore, exhibiting a linear relationship between sediment erosion volume and shoreline retreat distance. Through comparison with time series wave runup data obtained by cameras and traditional predictive formulas, the study validates the applicability of the formula proposed by Stockdon as a predictive tool for wave runup in this experiment. To evaluate dune stability, the study introduces the dimensionless overwash threshold parameter Cs, which is based on wave runup and dune crest elevation, to distinguish between dunes in a collision regime or an overwash regime. These findings help identify dune stability patterns, aiding in early detection of coastal erosion and assisting authorities in ecosystem management.

Upper Limit of Outer Belt Electron Acceleration and Their Controlling Geomagnetic Conditions: A Comparison of Storm and Non‐Storm Events

AbstractWe perform a comprehensive investigation of the statistical distribution of outer belt electron acceleration events over energies from 300 keV to ∼10 MeV regardless of storm activity using 6‐years of observations from Van Allen Probes. We find that the statistical properties of acceleration events are consistent with the characteristic energies of combined local acceleration by chorus waves and inward radial diffusion. While electron acceleration events frequently occur both at <2 MeV at L < 4.0 and at multi‐MeV at L > 4.5, significant acceleration events are confined to L > ∼4.0. By performing superposed epoch analysis of acceleration events during storm and non/weak storm events and comparing their geomagnetic conditions, we reveal the strong correlation (>0.8) between accumulated impacts of substorms as measured by time‐integrated AL (Int(AL)) and the upper flux limit of electron acceleration. While intense storms can provide favorable conditions for efficient acceleration, they are not necessarily required to produce large maximum fluxes.

Cliff dynamics in western Crimea

The paper considers the long-term dynamics of clayey cliffs of the Western Crimea in view of the problem of further recreational development of the Crimean Peninsula. Open-source satellite imagery and long-term (over 40 years) cliff section measurements were analyzed. The paper provides data on the geomorphology of individual coastal sites. It is shown that landslides are the main mechanism causing the cliff retreat on the larger part of the coastline. Slumps are typical for the southern part of the region and their movement episodes are relatively rare. Landslides become more active during the winter — spring period, when the moisture content of clayey cliff rocks increases substantially and the abrasion intensifies. Landslides can also be triggered by short-term heavy precipitation, which is usually observed in the summer. There is no definite relationship between the amount of annual precipitation, storm activity and landslide activity, either synchronous or with a time lag. No regularity in landslide dynamics was identified. It was found that the average long-term rates of cliff edge retreat are 0.1–1.2 m/year. In the northern part of the coast, the rates are the highest, decreasing towards the southern part of the region. The obtained average annual rates of cliff edge retreat are significantly less than those previously reported in the literature. There is a decrease in the beach-forming sediment supply due to a reduction in the stretch of the cliffs. Out of 50 km coastline with cliffs, only 39 km are left in the study area due to being covered by various structures and terracing. The paper also discusses anthropogenic activity, which leads to the formation and movement of man-made landslides and an increase in natural landslide activity. It is shown that the construction of transverse beach-retaining structures leads to blocking of littoral sediment transport, and to increase in the cliff retreat rate outside the protected reach.

The bimodal regime of ocean waves and winds over the continental shelf of Maranhão

This study analyzed surface waves and winds from ERA5 reanalysis dataset in the Western Equatorial Atlantic (WEA) Ocean in order to properly understand the long-term regime of oceanic waves over the Continental Shelf of Maranhão (CSMA), pointing to the changes that occur at the western and eastern sectors as the waves propagate to the coastal zone. A data validation with observational data collected in situ by the PNBOIA and PIRATA projects has been conducted. The parameters analyzed were significant wave height (Hs), peak period (Tp), mean wave direction (Dm), and the zonal (u10) and meridional (v10) components of wind at 10 m. The analysis covered a period of 43 years (1979–2023). The monthly climatology of the Hs, Tp and Dm found has revealed a semi-annual cycle in the waves pattern in the region. The wave direction variability executes a clockwise motion from northeast-east-southeast throughout a year. The annual climatology analysis reveals that 59 % of sea states in the region are characterized by swell conditions in the region, while wind-sea dominates in 41 % of cases, with seasonal variability. During the austral summer (autumn), swells prevail over wind-seas along the WEA, accounting for 77 % (84 %) of the cases. This coincides with the boreal winter, characterized by high storm activity, whose storms generate swells that traverse the ocean, reaching Maranhão's waters and resulting in the highest waves in the region (3.54 m in summer). In contrast, during the spring season, sea states are dominated by wind-sea conditions (70 %) due to the increase in southeast trade winds. The highest Hs observed from wind-sea conditions is 2.94 m. The largest contribution for the maxima Hs in the region is given by swells in the summer/autumn and by wind-seas in the winter/spring seasons, with swells propagating more energy and power to cause erosional processes on the eastern sector of Maranhão coast. Oppositely, in the western sector of the littoral, whose geomorphology is dominated by tidal flats, cheniers plains and mangroves, the Hs is small, indicating a depositional environment. The algorithm indicated that swells generated by tropical (extratropical) storms typically take approximately 3.5–4.5 (6−7) days to travel the distance to the CSMA, while in the equatorial zone, the arrival of swells at the CSMA averages between 3.5 and 7 days. In this study we demonstrated the CSMA region is dominated by a bimodal wave regime with a strong semi-annual cycle, which is driven by the tropical/extratropical storms propagating from the North Atlantic Ocean toward the study area and by trade winds variability.

Student and public perceptions of stormwater runoff and its impact on public health in a Southern California coastal community

Ventura, California’s 2023 winter storm activity underscored the impact that runoff has on recreational water quality and public health. To examine public perception of stormwater runoff, coastal water quality, and community decision-making toward recreating in polluted water, an online survey of the Ventura River watershed community determined local residents’ understanding of watershed knowledge, or geoliteracy, health and well-being, and social responsibility. Administered through Qualtrics XM Software ® via direct weblink, the survey was available on public online social media platforms and distributed to public high school Earth Science students. Analysis of participants’ (N = 143) responses and their self-reported water activity, water activity frequency, and perceptions of Ventura River’s discharge and stormwater runoff revealed the community’s behavior regarding exposure to hazardous water quality and, ultimately, the survey participants’ level of geoliteracy concerning their local watershed. A statistical analysis between categorical variables of survey questions found that most survey participants regularly enjoy recreational water activities. However, a person’s awareness of the impacts on water quality from urban stormwater runoff (geoliteracy) does not necessarily indicate that they will wait longer to recreate in polluted water. A majority (88.2%) would avoid polluted water whether or not they had experienced waterborne illness, though individuals who reported a waterborne illness were not more likely to avoid stormwater-impacted water. However, participants who understand that urban runoff leads to poor water quality exhibited greater social responsibility. Our results indicate that Ventura Watershed’s community geoliteracy can be improved, with more research needed to determine community awareness of local environmental issues.

Multi‐Year Potential Predictability of the Wintertime Heavy Precipitation Potentials in East Asia

AbstractWe validate the multiyear potential predictability of wintertime heavy precipitation potential in East Asia by combining initialized decadal hindcasts of the global climate model and large ensemble simulations from a high‐resolution global atmospheric model. By analyzing a set of initialized hindcasts, the major predictive components of sea surface temperature (SST) variability beyond interannual timescales are identified as high‐latitudes multidecadal variability and the so‐called trans‐basin variability (TBV). A set of 100 ensemble simulations using a high‐resolution atmospheric model showed a significantly large signal‐to‐noise ratio for the wintertime heavy precipitation potential in East Asia, which is closely related to the TBV. When the SST around the maritime continent is higher, the anomalously low pressure in the northwestern Pacific enhances low‐level cold air transport due to the winter monsoon. Consequently, the resultant weaker baroclinicity in the lower atmosphere reduces storm activity and wintertime heavy precipitation potential in East Asia.

Martian Dust Storm Spatial‐Temporal Analysis of Tentative Landing Areas for China's Tianwen‐3 Mars Mission

AbstractChina's first Mars sampling return mission (Tianwen‐3) is designed to launch and retrieve samples around 2030. Three tentative landing areas (TLAs) (Amazonis, Chryse and Utopia Planitiae, i.e., TLA‐A, TLA‐C and TLA‐U) are selected based on elevation <−2,000 m and latitude between 17° and 30°N. As a dominant feature of Martian meteorology, dust storms manifest in all seasons and affect the accuracy and safety of Mars exploration missions. Tianwen‐3's landing, sampling and ascent phases are in the dust storm season. Therefore, analyzing dust storm activity around landing areas is significant for the Tianwen‐3 mission. According to Mars Daily Global Maps taken by Mars Orbiter Camera spanning Martian years 24–28, 2,476 dust storm events around the three TLAs were identified in this research. Dust storm temporal probabilities within TLA‐A, TLA‐C and TLA‐U were calculated as 0%–44.69%, 0%–66.29% and 0%–33.64%, separately. Dust storm spatial probabilities around the TLA‐A, TLA‐C and TLA‐U were computed, with ranges of 0%–10.71%, 0%–14.55% and 0%–19.96% during the T1 period (Ls = 161–309°), and 0%–6.75%, 0%–7.65% and 0%–8.26% during the T2 period (Ls = 342‐55°), respectively. Finally, considering the temporal and spatial distribution of dust storms, we recommend the T2 period as the launch scenario. Three safe periods (Ls = 2–18°, 4–12°, and 356–4°) were assigned for the entry‐descent‐landing (EDL) phase, along with one period (Ls = 45–55°) for the take‐off and ascent phase. Five circular landing zones with dust storm spatial probability <3% were selected for the Tianwen‐3 mission.

The preservation of storm events in the geologic record of New Jersey, USA

ABSTRACTGeologic reconstructions of overwash events can extend storm records beyond the brief instrumental record. However, the return periods of storms calculated from geologic records alone may underestimate the frequency of events given the preservation bias of geologic records. Here, we compare a geologic reconstruction of storm activity from a salt marsh in New Jersey to two neighboring instrumental records at the Sandy Hook and Battery tide gauges. Eight overwash deposits were identified within the marsh's stratigraphy by their fan‐shaped morphology and coarser mean grain size (3.6 ± 0.7 φ) compared to autochthonous sediments they were embedded in (5.6 ± 0.8 φ). We used an age–depth model based on modern chronohorizons and three radiocarbon dates to provide age constraints for the overwash deposits. Seven of the overwash deposits were attributed to historical storms, including the youngest overwash deposit from Hurricane Sandy in 2012. The four youngest overwash deposits overlap with instrumental records. In contrast, the Sandy Hook and Battery tide gauges recorded eight and 11 extreme water levels above the 10% annual expected probability (AEP) of exceedance level, respectively, between 1932/1920 and the present. The geologic record in northern New Jersey, therefore, has a 36–50% preservation potential of capturing extreme water levels above the 10% AEP level.