Stock Shortage Research Articles

SOCIO-ECONOMIC PROFILE OF LARGE CITIES OF KAZAKHSTAN

The purpose of the study is to analyze the current state of socio–economic development of large cities of Kazakhstan, identify problems and develop proposals for their development.Methodology. In the course of the work, statistical and comparative economic analysis, methods of generalization and systematization were used. To identify the strengths and weaknesses, threats and advantages of the development of large cities, a SWOT analysis was conducted. With the help of the logical method, potential directions for the development of large cities of Kazakhstan were identified.Originality / value of the research. The study analyzed the socio-economic development of large cities, identified the strengths and weaknesses of their development, as well as identified threats and opportunities for the development of large cities of the Republic of Kazakhstan. Based on the analysis, the directions of development of large cities are proposed.Findings. During the analysis of the socio-economic development of large cities, it was revealed that in all large cities there is a certain factor determining its development. For example, in the cities of Aktau and Atyrau, a high income of the population is fixed, since the cities specialize in the extraction and processing of hydrocarbon raw materials, etc. The problems hindering the development of large cities include a high increase in the number of unemployed, a shortage of housing stock, the deterioration of utility networks, an increase in the number of citizens in need of social support, and a high level of atmospheric pollution. The directions of development of large cities of the Republic of Kazakhstan are proposed.

Abortion care availability, readiness, and access: linking population and health facility data in Kinshasa and Kongo Central, DRC

BackgroundThe Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) legalized abortion in 2018 to preserve health and pledged to provide quality postabortion care (PAC), yet little is known about the availability of abortion care services and if facilities are prepared to provide them; even less is known about the accessibility of these services. Using facility and population-based data in Kinshasa and Kongo Central, this study examined the availability of abortion services, readiness of facilities to provide them, and inequities in access.MethodsData on 153 facilities from the 2017–2018 DRC Demographic and Health Survey Service Provision Assessment (SPA) were used to examine signal functions and readiness of facilities to provide services across three abortion care domains (termination of pregnancy, basic treatment of abortion complications, and comprehensive treatment of abortion complications). To examine PAC and medication abortion provision before and after abortion decriminalization, we compared estimates from the 2017–2018 SPA facilities to estimates from the Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) data collected in 2021 (n = 388). Lastly, we assessed proximity to PAC and medication abortion using PMA by geospatially linking facilities to representative samples of 2,326 and 1,856 women in Kinshasa and Kongo Central, respectively.ResultsFew facilities had all the signal functions under each abortion care domain, but most facilities had many of the signal functions: overall readiness scores were > 60% for each domain. In general, readiness was higher among referral facilities compared to primary facilities. The main barriers to facility readiness were stock shortages of misoprostol, injectable antibiotics, and contraception. Overall, provision of services was higher post-decriminalization. Access to facilities providing PAC and medication abortion was almost universal in urban Kinshasa, but patterns in rural Kongo Central showed a positive association with education attainment and wealth.ConclusionMost facilities had many of the necessary signal functions to provide abortion services, but the majority experienced challenges with commodity availability. Inequities in accessibility of services also existed. Interventions that address supply chain challenges may improve facility readiness to provide abortion care services, and further efforts are needed to narrow the gap in accessibility, especially among poor women from rural settings.

ANALISIS PROSES PENGENDALIAN PERSEDIAAN DEGAN METODE ECONOMIC ORDER QUANTITY DI MDLY GOLD


 MDLY Gold is a small and medium business partner (MSME) engaged in the fashion sector that has been established since 2017. As of 2022, MDLY Gold successfully has 9 production and retail locations throughout the major islands of Indonesia with the main outlet located in Tanah Abang, Jakarta. Center. However, ordering MDLY Gold raw materials requires a lead time of 2 weeks. So this will affect the long production time so that it causes losses for MDLY Gold. Therefore, to maximize raw material inventory and reduce losses, we can analyze using the Economic Order Quantity method. Through solving the inventory control problem, the total Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) of raw material inventory for MDLY Gold production is 27,413.8 Yards during January to June. This EOQ aims to manage inventory that can optimize the total cost consisting of ordering costs and holding costs. Besides this, MDLY Gold must reorder when the stock reaches a reorder point of 17,668.4 Yards with additional supplies needed if there is no shortage of raw materials or safety stock of 10,112.24 Yards. Determination of ROP and SS is useful for MDLY Gold to be able to find out when is the best time to place an order besides there is an order lead time, so that raw materials will arrive on time and the production process will run smoothly without any problems in inventory control.

Penerapan Metode Buffer Stock dalam Prediksi Ketercukupan Bahan Baku

UD. Elvajaya has sales and purchases of stock of bag raw materials, but until now UD. Elvajaya experienced difficulties in terms of predicting or estimating the calculation of raw materials according to incoming orders. Raw materials often experience advantages and disadvantages in the ongoing process of making bags, causing service to customers to experience delays in the process of making and shipping goods to be delayed. The absence of proper calculations when there is an incoming order results in an unstable stock of raw materials with the number of incoming orders. In making raw material reports, books are still used as storage so that raw materials are not controlled. This study proposes the application of the buffer stock method to overcome existing problems. With the existence of a prediction system for the adequacy of raw materials using the buffer stock method, it can assist in the process of calculating raw materials to be purchased according to incoming orders so as to reduce the risk of stock shortages in the ongoing manufacturing process. The buffer stock method has several advantages, namely, minimizing risks in production regarding insufficient raw materials, being able to handle ordering requests with quite a large number. With this system, it is hoped that the problems faced by UD owners can be resolved. This research produces a prediction of how many raw materials will be issued for the following month by looking at the bag orders in the previous month. UD.Elvajaya produces 1440 cm of Buffer Stock for fabric raw materials, 1440 cm of zippers, 2160 cm of hose, 2160 cm of bisban, 15 threads, and 44 zipper heads.

Public health supply chain for iron and folic acid supplementation in India: Status, bottlenecks and an agenda for corrective action under Anemia Mukt Bharat strategy.

The IFA supplementation program under the Anemia Mukt Bharat (AMB) program is one of the most ambitious nutrient supplementation programs in India. The delivery of services often suffers due to frequent stock outs and shortages. It is critical to understand the bottleneck in the supply chain adversely affecting the performance and coverage of the program. The paper attempts to identify the bottlenecks of the IFA supply chain in key areas of supply chain i.e., forecasting, procurement, warehousing and inventory management, transportation, distribution, logistic information system and suggests a plan of action aimed at ensuring uninterrupted supplies to the end beneficiaries. The data source for the present paper is the nationwide IFA Supply Chain Assessment (2018-19) conducted across 29 Indian states with a total of 58 districts, 116 blocks, 232 Sub-Centres, 232 Anganwadi centres and 232 schools covered under the assessment as a multi-partner collaborative initiative. Field insights from supply chain strengthening interventions under different public health programs in India and other developing countries were taken to arrive at corrective actions and recommendations. Findings were disseminated to government and an action plan was suggested for connecting service delivery points through an app-based system, developing a micro plan for ensuring fixed distribution schedule, followed by continuous monitoring and review meetings identified for follow up. The average lead time across states was 35 weeks with top three performing states being Goa, Sikkim, and Telangana. The average per unit cost of procurement was Rs 0.35 for IFA Red, Rs 0.25 for IFA Blue, Rs 0.31 for IFA Pink and Rs 7.30 for IFA syrup. Out of the 704 districts in India, only 213 has IFA Red, only 140 had IFA Blue, 152 had IFA Pink and 163 had IFA Syrup available in four quarters of 2018-19. The key issues identified in the assessment were-a lack of standardized forecasting process, absence of inventory management techniques, no fixed distribution schedule, inadequate availability of transport vehicles and an absence of an integrated MIS. The identification of bottlenecks in the IFA supply chain and its impact on the performance of the supply chain would provide policy guidelines for the government as well as development partner agencies to design an effective and efficient supply chain. It would also enable the policy planners to understand the challenges associated with managing different components of a supply chain, their interrelation and impact on the overall performance of the supply chain. The suggested recommendations would equip program managers with the tool to devise and implement field level solutions.

Integrated optimization of demand-driven timetable, train formation plan and rolling stock circulation with variable running times and dwell times

Timetable, train formation plan and rolling stock circulation are the key operational issues for efficient railway operation. The three issues are optimized sequentially based on the order of the operational plan. Sequential optimization manner cannot balance the costs of the three stages effectively and could create an infeasible solution for a later stage when the resources are limited. In addition, because of the computational complexity, multiple variable elements, such as the variable running times, variable dwell times and the coupling/decoupling operations, of a transportation system are ignored. This paper focuses on optimizing timetable, train formation plan and rolling stock circulation simultaneously to minimize costs and meet passenger demand. The key to solving the problem is to determine operation times (i.e., arrival times, departure times, running times and dwell times), the formation type of each train service and rolling stock connections (including the turnaround operations and the coupling/decoupling operations) between these train services. Considering the passenger costs and operator costs, a multi-objective mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) model is proposed to minimize the total passenger waiting time (TWT), the number of rolling stocks (NR), the number of formations (NF) and the number of coupling/decoupling operations (NC) based on a time–space network. The multi-objective MINLP model is further reformulated into a single-objective mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model by logical linearizing, piecewise linearizing and fuzzy programming. A numerical example is used in which the exact solution of MINLP obtained by the BARON solver is compared with the approximate solution of MILP obtained by the CPLEX solver to verify the effectiveness of the piecewise linearization. Finally, the model is tested on a real-world case study of the Jinshan Line in Shanghai. The CPLEX solver can efficiently produce the approximate solution within a given computation time in acceptable gaps. The results demonstrate that the integrated model can reduce the number of rolling stocks and improve the utilization rate of rolling stocks. Furthermore, the integrated model can effectively resolve the shortage of rolling stocks when only one depot has rolling stocks or the number of available rolling stocks is limited. In addition, considering the multiple variable elements have a significant effect on the improvement of all the objectives and reduce both the passenger costs and the operator costs.

COMPARISON OF SINGLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD WITH DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD PREDICTION OF SALT SALES

Predicting the quantity of product sales in the future aims to control the amount of existing product stock, so that the shortage or excess of product stock can be minimized. When the quantity of sales can be predicted accurately, the fulfillment of consumer demand can be managed in a timely manner and the company's cooperation with consumers is maintained properly so that the company can avoid losing sales and consumers. This study aims to analyze the accuracy of predicting the quantity of sales of salt using the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) method compared to using the Double Exponential Smoothing (DES) method, so that a more accurate method will be obtained for predicting the quantity of sales. The results of testing the comparison of the level of accuracy can be done by evaluating the error value of the forecasting results with the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The lowest MAPE result obtained is in the SES method when the parameter α = 0.054 with a MAPE result of 7.932% which means the accuracy value is very accurate. Whereas with the DES method the MAPE value is 28.145% while the parameter α = 0.845 β = 0.214 which means the value of accuracy is reasonable. Based on the MAPE results obtained using the two methods above, the Single Exponential Smoothing method is more accurate for use in predicting salt sales. Whereas with the DES method the MAPE value is 28.145% while the parameter α = 0.845 β = 0.214 which means the value of accuracy is reasonable. Based on the MAPE results obtained using the two methods above, the Single Exponential Smoothing method is more accurate for use in predicting salt sales. Whereas with the DES method the MAPE value is 28.145% while the parameter α = 0.845 β = 0.214 which means the value of accuracy is reasonable. Based on the MAPE results obtained using the two methods above, the Single Exponential Smoothing method is more accurate for use in predicting salt sales

Analysis of Merchandise Inventory Management at Petra Women's Cooperative (Case Study of Coop Mart Plaju)

Merchandise inventory plays an important role in the process of buying and selling at trading companies, so it is important for companies to manage and monitor their inventory. The problem discussed in this study was the lack of management of merchandise inventory which often resulted in the shortage of stock. This research was conducted at Petra Women's Cooperative (Coop Mart) located at Jl. Antara Annex II No. 292 Plaju Palembang. The data used in this study were primary and secondary data. The method applied in the research was qualitative and quantitative analysis method. The results of this analysis showed that the management of merchandise inventory of Petra Women's Cooperative (Coop Mart) was not regularly carried out as seen from the calculation of inventory turnover, safety stock and reorder point which fluctuated. This was caused by the lack of control over the goods entry and exit, which would affect inventory. Therefore, inventory management analysis was very essential to do to prevent shortages of goods.

Simulation Modeling System in Determining the Amount of Oil Inventory

Currently, XYZ Gas Stations, in carrying out fuel sales activities, have not yet used a simulation of calculating fuel supply needs at gas stations which functions to support decision making by the leadership, this causes frequent stock shortages at each XYZ gas station branch. because of that the authors are interested in creating a modeling system for calculating fuel inventory simulations using the Monte Carlo method and the LCM pattern. The purpose of this research is to produce a simulated calculation of the supply of purchased fuel so that management knows how much stock of fuel must be provided at each gas station and also to prevent empty fuel stocks at each gas station in the XYZ branch. The data collection methods used in this study were interviews, observations, and literature studies. The system is designed using the JAVA Programming Language. The data processed in this study is transaction activity data for January and February 2022 to determine the amount of inventory that must be provided in March 2022. The final results of the data processing that has been carried out with the trial purchase data transactions for the two current months, namely January and February 2022 to get the simulation results of fuel oil (BBM) supplies in March whose activation has been running with simulation predictions using the Monte Carlo Algorithm.

PENERAPAN METODE NEURAL NETWORK DENGAN STRUKTUR BACKPROPAGATION UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI KEBUTUHAN STOK PADA TOKO UMKM PERLENGKAPAN BAYI BABYQU

At this time Machine Learning especially Deep Learning is developing very quickly in any field, especially in the fields of business, transactions, stock predictions, sales, and stocks and the like. Machine Learning has become a mainstay for facilitating and helping work. At the BabyQu store, the decisions used to carry out stock inventory still use the manual method, and there are several problems that arise including the occurrence of excess stock which makes other storage areas used for excess stock, especially if there are products that have an expiration date, and if there is a shortage of stock, problems will occur that will make consumers who need products or goods go to other places and several other problems that will arise which will cause losses to BabyQu stores, it is necessary to create a system or software that aims to assist BabyQu stores in forecasting stock availability product to overcomesome of these problems. This research was made using the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model design and method using Backpropagation as the algorithm because this algorithm can reduce the percentage of errors. The results we got in this study using the 3-3-1 model obtained an accuracy rate of 85.72%, using 550 iterations of epochs, and taking approximately 11.1 seconds.

Pengurangan Bullwhip Effect pada Rantai Pasok Air Minum Dalam Kemasan Menggunakan Metode Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR): Studi Kasus

CV Tirta Alam Dodu is a privately owned company engaged in the beverage industry in the form of AMDK. The problem faced by the company is that there is a difference between demand and sales, or better known as the bullwhip effect problem. The purpose of this study is to reduce the bullwhip effect on the supply chain and optimize the amount of product inventory according to the amount of demand. The method used is the Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and Replenishment (CPFR) method. Based on the results of the research conducted, it can be concluded that the analysis of demand forecasting calculations on AMDK products at CV Tirta Alam Dodu was carried out using historical data on product demand through five analytical methods, including Linear Trend, Moving Average, Exponential Smoothing, Decomposition, and Winter's Model. The best forecasting resulted in Winter's Model which showed the smallest error value compared to the other four models. The way to minimize so that it does not become a bullwhip effect is to use the CPFR method, where the bullwhip effect value is obtained on glass mineral water products and gallons of mineral water of 0,985 and 0,898, respectively. This result shows that there is no amplification of demand and has reached the company's target, which is to fall below number one. The way to optimize inventory so that there is no excess stock or shortage of stock in the product is to make the amount of inventory based on the amount of demand from the forecasting results plus the safety stock.

Access to health services for chronic disease care during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ecuador: A qualitative analysis using a Social Determinants of Health approach

ABSTRACT This qualitative study aims to explore how the COVID-19 pandemic impacted healthcare access for patients with chronic conditions in Ecuador from the patient’s perspective. We interviewed 19 patients diagnosed with arterial hypertension or type 2 diabetes in rural and urban areas of Ecuador during August and September 2020. We used the Framework Method to analyse the interview transcripts with ATLAS.Ti 8.4 and organised the ideas discussed using categories from the World Health Organization Commission on the Social Determinants of Health conceptual framework. Reorganization of health services during the pandemic meant that patients with arterial hypertension or diabetes could no longer attend face-to-face appointments for disease follow-up. System failures related to medication supply led to increased out-of-pocket payments, which, together with reduced or absent earnings, and in a context with limited social protection policies, meant that patients frequently went for prolonged periods without medication. Rural health initiatives, support from family and use of traditional medicine were reported as ways to manage their chronic condition during this time. Barriers to disease management disproportionately affected individuals with low socioeconomic positions. Stock shortages, lack of protective labour policies and limited reach of anticipatory policies for health emergencies likely worsened pre-existing health inequities in Ecuador.

The Pharmaceutical Journal’s Carolyn Wickware wins ‘Pharmacy Writer of the Year’ award

Carolyn Wickware, investigations editor at The Pharmaceutical Journal, has been recognised as ‘Pharmacy Writer of the Year’ at the 2023 Avicenna Media Awards, held at the Ismaili Centre in London on 27 January 2023. The judges recognised Wickware for her work to “raise the profile of the contractor’s plight regarding stock shortages, which can put […]

Структурно-функциональный анализ взаимодействия с организациями частного сектора экономики при ликвидации чрезвычайных ситуаций

Introduction. The article is devoted to the application of Structured Analysis and Design Technique (acronym - SADT) for the formalization of the processes of interaction of the management bodies of the emergency response with private sector organizations in the management of reserves of material resources for emergency response. The relevance lies in improving the decision-making mechanism for the use of material resources of economic entities for emergency response. The scientific significance lies in the formalization of the model of interaction between the management bodies of the Unified State System of Prevention and Liquidation of Emergency Situations and organizations of the private sector of the economy based on the methods of structural programming SADT. The practical significance lies in determining the stages of the construction of the model of interaction between the management bodies of the Unified State System of Prevention and Liquidation of Emergency Situations and organizations of the private sector of the economy, as well as determining a number of models and algorithms for the implementation of the proposed SADT model in a generalized form. The purpose of the study is to identify the relationship between the functions and structure of the elements of the system of interaction between the management bodies of the Unified State System of Prevention and Liquidation of Emergency Situations and organizations of the private sector of the economy in the management of reserves of material resources. Research methods. during the study, the SADT method of structural and functional analysis was used. In the modeling process, together with the IDEF0 standard, the IDEF3 low-level process modeling and analysis standard was used for a more detailed analysis of functional blocks (IDEF3 notation was used to create a workflow model, collect information about the state of the simulated system). Results and its discussion. The interrelation of functions and the structure of the elements of the system of interaction between the management bodies of the Unified State System of Prevention and Liquidation of Emergency Situations and organizations of the private sector of the economy in the management of reserves of material resources are revealed. A structural-functional model of interaction between the management bodies of the Unified State System of Prevention and Liquidation of Emergency Situations and organizations of the private sector of the economy in the management of reserves of material resources is proposed. The place in the general structure of the system material support systems for liquidation of emergency situations of the following models and algorithms has been determined: Decision support model for assessing the sufficiency of produced material resources to eliminate emergencies on the territory of a constituent entity of the Russian Federation; Decision support model algorithm for placing reserves of material resources in the presence of a shortage of commodity stocks; Decision support model algorithm for the formation of reserves of material resources based on the management of insurance stocks of organizations; Decision support model for the delivery of material resources to the emergency area. Conclusions. The use of structural and functional analysis methods for automating the process of managing reserves of material resources can be applied in the development of computer programs and databases for calculating the calculated parameters of the resource security of the emergency response process both in moderation mode and in real time. Keywords: modeling; SADT; IDEF0; IDEF3; reserves of material resources; business entity; liquidation of an emergency.

An EOQ Model for Seasonal Product with Ramp-type Time and Stock dependent demand, Shortage and Partial Backorder

An EOQ Model for Seasonal Product with Ramp-type Time and Stock dependent demand, Shortage and Partial Backorder

УПРАВЛЕНИЕ ЗАПАСАМИ ГОТОВОЙ ПРОДУКЦИИ КАК ФАКТОР ПОВЫШЕНИЯ ЭФФЕКТИВНОСТИ ИСПОЛЬЗОВАНИЯ АКТИВОВ СЕЛЬСКОХОЗЯЙСТВЕННОГО ПРЕДПРИЯТИЯ

The relevance of the scientific problem under consideration is determined by the fact that at present, in the context of a global change in the economic situation, inventory management of finished products is a key element of effective asset management of enterprises of any organizational and legal forms and forms of ownership. Both the excess and the shortage of stocks of finished products create certain problems at the enterprise: with their excess, the costs of storing finished products increase, funds are frozen in warehouses, at the same time, their shortage leads to a shortage of finished products in the warehouses of the enterprise. This problem is of particular importance in the agricultural sector. This article reveals the economic essence of the “stocks” category, defines their role as the most important element of asset management of an organization, and develops directions for improving the efficiency of using the assets of an agricultural organization based on the analysis of its stocks of finished products. The analysis of stocks of finished products was carried out for one of the enterprises of the agro-industrial complex of the south of the Rostov region.

Effective energy management tools: inventory management and monitoring of energy consumption by personnel

This article introduces an innovative management system for retail businesses, based on modern computer vision and data analytics technologies. The primary focus is on effective energy management: optimizing inventory control and monitoring employee energy consumption. The system is designed to address several key challenges faced by stores and trading companies. It provides a comprehensive solution for employee monitoring, utilizing computer vision for automated attendance tracking and establishing a detailed absence database. This streamlines supervisory responsibilities and ensures fair payroll distribution, eliminating unjustified payouts for absenteeism. Furthermore, the system revolutionizes inventory management by offering accurate sales statistics through automated data entry and in-depth analytics. It identifies popular items and forecasts future needs, optimizing procurement decisions and preventing losses due to stock shortages.

Experiences and perceptions of health professionals towards the quality of care for people living with HIV in Tunisia: a qualitative study.

human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection continues to be a public health issue, especially in low- and middle-income countries, including Tunisia. In 2020, 32% of people living with HIV were on treatment. Management of HIV infection remains a real challenge for both patients and care providers. Our study aimed to describe the perceptions and attitudes of health professionals toward care for people living with HIV (PLHIV). a qualitative study was carried out between 2020 and 2021. Interviews with key informants were conducted in order to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the care for PLHIV, as well as their suggestions for improvement. Eight key informants in HIV care from different profiles were interviewed: healthcare providers from a specialized university hospital, the Ministry of Health, and civil society representatives working in the field of HIV. Interviews were transcribed and analyzed thematically using "QDA Miner" software. the frequency of PLHIV who have interrupted medical follow-up was perceived as worrisome, and increasing. Along with individual factors, non-adherence to treatment was also attributed to systemic factors related to stock shortages, geographical inaccessibility, and shortfall in human resources. Stigmatization of PLHIV in healthcare facilities outside the specialized hospital was also highlighted. This has been linked to gaps in the training of care providers on the modes of the virus transmission. health professionals face many challenges in the care of PLHIV. There is an urgent need to improve treatment availability and accessibility, strengthen social assistance for PLHIV and fight against stigmatization, especially in healthcare settings.

Human-centric investigation of a robotic forward–reserve warehouse

Order picking has long been identified as a time- and cost-intensive task in almost every supply chain. One interesting approach to accelerate the picking process is to separate the warehouse into forward and reserve areas, where the forward area holds a limited amount of inventory for fast picking that is replenished by the stock in the reserve area. To date, the replenishment operation is often conducted manually or using goods-to-person technologies such as automated storage/retrieval systems. Recently, a newly developed market-ready technology called picking robots, which are a kind of autonomous mobile robots, was implemented in e-commerce warehouses. They can be integrated into existing manual order picking systems without modifying the warehouse layout. In this study, we simulate a case wherein picking robots are applied for replenishment tasks to avoid stock shortages in fast-picking areas, thereby supporting the picking activities of humans. The aim is to reduce the human workload during the order picking process. We investigate various scenarios with different human–robot team configurations and demand patterns. The results indicate that such a setting can improve working conditions by simultaneously reducing human energy expenditure and costs per pick. The contribution of this study is to introduce these robots to forward–reserve warehouses, obtain preliminary results regarding system performance, and discuss related opportunities for future work.

PENERAPAN DATA MINING DENGAN METODE SINGLE MOVING AVERAGE UNTUK MENENTUKAN JUMLAH PENJUALAN OBAT

Anita Farma 2 Pharmacy is one of the private pharmacies in the city of Baubau which still implements a manual system for drug sales management and has not implemented a method to predict future drug sales. So that there are various kinds of drugs that experience excess stock and some drugs experience stock shortages. The purpose of this study is to make it easier to predict future drug stock requirements at Anita Farma 2 Pharmacy using the application of data mining with the web-based Single Moving Average method. The method used in this study is the Single Moving Average (SMA) method which is a technique for calculating the average of a number from the latest actual value, updated as new values become available, carried out to forecast the following periods using the method Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) to calculate the accuracy of predictions on the Single Moving Average method. The results of the research system used the Single Moving Average method, namely period 2 (M2) of 23.25%, period 3 (M3) of 26.23% and period 4 (M4) of 28.22% using 5 drug samples with sales for 5 years from January 2017 to December 2021 Among the 3 periods of drug sales forecasting tested using manual calculations with MAPE it can be concluded that period (M2) is better than periods M3 and M4 with a percentage of MAPE "Good Forecasting" of 16.67% and the smallest error rate of 23.25 %.