Sector Stock Returns Research Articles

COVID-19 and time-frequency spillovers between oil and sectoral stocks and portfolio implications: Evidence from China and US economies

This paper examines the volatility spillovers and the time-frequency dependence between crude oil and stock sectors in the U.S. and China using both wavelet coherence and asymmetric BEKK GARCH models. This study also investigates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on spillover effects and portfolio management. The results reveal strong positive co-movements between WTI oil and US sector stock returns at medium and low frequencies particularly in 2020Q1. We find significant long-term co-movements between oil and Chinese sector stock returns (64–128 days). Furthermore, the findings reveal a significant and asymmetric volatility transmission between oil and sector stocks in both the US and Chinese economies. The evidence of spillovers is more pronounced during the COVID-19 period. It is recommended that equity investors should hold more stocks than oil assets to minimize risk without reducing the expected return. Finally, hedging with oil is expensive for U.S. sectors during the pandemic but inexpensive for Chinese sectors.

Exploring the influence of Silicon Valley Bank default and U.S. financial stress on sectoral interactions and effective hedging strategies

ABSTRACT The SVB implosion could trigger a domino effect, shaking confidence in U.S. banks. This research estimates the response of good and bad cumulative abnormal returns (G-CARs, B-CARs) on the event day, pre-event and post-event periods, using financial stress, oil, geopolitical and equity uncertainty as controls. We also examine the moderating impact of the SVB implosion and U.S. financial stress indices (US-FSI) on the good and bad dynamic conditional correlations between 132 U.S. sectoral pairings. Additionally, we assess the best portfolio distribution to determine if short positions in specific U.S. sectors offer better protection against SVB’s long-term volatility using the DCC-GARCH-t copulas. Overall findings suggest that B-CARs are more adversely affected than G-CARs. Therefore, investors need to consider bearish and bullish market conditions before devising hedging strategies. The Financials, Health Care, Industrial, Materials, Oil and Gas, Real Estate and Transportation sectors of U.S. experienced significant losses due to higher B-CARs around the SVB default event. Furthermore, the SVB default’s moderating impact on the U.S. sectoral stock returns is more pronounced during bearish market conditions compared to bullish ones following a Black Swan event. This suggests a differential moderating impact of SVB on good and bad conditional connectedness and a reduction in diversification benefits.

Comparative analysis of aggregate and sectoral time-varying market efficiency in the Russian stock market during the COVID-19 outbreak and the Russia–Ukraine conflict (RUC)

PurposeThe primary purpose of this research is to identify and compare the multifractal behavior of different sectors during these crises and analyze their implications on market efficiency.Design/methodology/approachWe used multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) to analyze stock returns from various sectors of the Moscow Stock Exchange (MOEX) in between two significant periods. The COVID-19 pandemic (January 1, 2020, to December 31, 2021) and the Russia–Ukraine conflict (RUC) (January 1, 2022, to June 30, 2023). This method witnesses multifractality in financial time series data and tests the persistency and efficiency levels of each sector to provide meaningful insights.FindingsResults showcased persistent multifractal behavior across all sectors in between the COVID-19 pandemic and the RUC, spotting heightened arbitrage opportunities in the MOEX. The pandemic reported a greater speculative behavior, with the telecommunication and oil and gas sectors exhibiting reduced efficiency, recommending abnormal return potential. In contrast, financials and metals and mining sectors displayed increased efficiency, witnessing strong economic performance. Findings may enhance understanding of market dynamics during crises and provide strategic insights for the MOEX’s investors.Practical implicationsUnderstanding the multifractal properties and efficiency of different sectors during crisis periods is of paramount importance for investors and policymakers. The identified arbitrage opportunities and efficiency variations can aid investors in optimizing their investment strategies during such critical market conditions. Policymakers can also leverage these insights to implement measures that bolster economic stability and development during crisis periods.Originality/valueThis research contributes to the existing body of knowledge by providing a comprehensive analysis of multifractal properties and efficiency in the context of the MOEX during two major crises. The application of MF-DFA to sectoral stock returns during these events adds originality to the study. The findings offer valuable implications for practitioners, researchers and policymakers seeking to navigate financial markets during turbulent times and enhance overall market resilience.

ANALISIS PENGARUH DAMPAK MAKROEKONOMI, KEBIJAKAN PEMERINTAH, DAN KINERJA PERUSAHAAN TERHADAP RETURN SAHAM SEKTOR INFRASTRUKTUR

Infrastructure sector stocks experienced a stable and upward trend, even sharply at the end of quarter 2023. In line with the government budget in infrastructure development that continues to increase, supported by the increase in this sector, one of which will contribute to increasing economic growth in Indonesia, therefore the purpose of this research is to analyze the effect of macroeconomic impacts, government policies, and company performance on infrastructure sector stock returns. Inferential quantitative research with panel data regression analysis techniques is included in this research. With purposive sample method, ten companies were selected, out of 62 companies in the whole population. The type of secondary data is quarterly for the period 2016-2022. The implications of this research as material for investors to invest. Common Effect Model (CEM) is the selected model, the findings prove that partially interest rates, capital expenditures, CR, TATO, ROE, PER, DER, ROA, EPS, NPM, DPR, and DPS have no effect on stock returns. PBV has a significant positive effect on stock returns. Exchange rate, inflation, and DY variables have a significant negative effect on stock returns. Simultaneously, exchange rate, inflation, interest rate, capital expenditure, CR, TATO, ROE, PER, DER, ROA, EPS, PBV, NPM, DPR, DPS, and DY all affect stock returns.

Exploring the coherency and predictability between the stocks of artificial intelligence and energy corporations

This paper employs wavelet coherence, Cross-Quantilogram (CQ), and Time-Varying Parameter Vector-Autoregression (TVP-VAR) estimation strategies to investigate the dependence structure and connectedness between investments in artificial intelligence (AI) and eight different energy-focused sectors. We find significant evidence of dependence and connectedness between the stock returns of AI and those of the energy-focused sectors, especially during intermediate and long-term investment horizons. The relationship has become stronger since the COVID-19 pandemic. More specifically, results from the wavelet coherence approach show a stronger association between the stock returns of energy-focused sectors and AI, while results from the CQ analysis show that directional predictability from AI to energy-focused sectors varies across sectors, investment horizons, and market conditions. TVP-VAR results show that since the COVID-19 outbreak, AI has become more of a net shock receiver from the energy market. Our study offers crucial implications for investors and policymakers.

Determinants of Profitability, Firm Size, and Institutional Ownership Moderated by Capital Structure on Stock Returns

The study was conducted to examine the influence of several factors that are suspected to affect the health care sector's stock returns, moderated by the capital structure proxied by the debt to equity ratio (DER). The population used in this research were seventeen companies, and the samples that match the research criteria were seven health care companies listed on the Indonesian stock exchange between 2018-2022. The research used panel data analysis techniques, and utilizes financial reports. The results of this study y indicate that profitability proxied by the return on equity (ROE) and institutional ownership has a positive influence, and DER has a negative influence on the stock return, while the firm size do not has significant effect on the stock return. The ROE and firm size are moderated by capital structure in their influence on the stock return. The findings of this study suggest that in maximizing the stock return in the health care sector's, companies need to increase profits, have a high level of institutional ownership and maximize sources of funds for the operational activities, as well as optimizing the use of debt to invest in assets.

Impact of Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) and global Energy Uncertainty (EU) news on U.S. sectors: The moderating role of CPU on the EU and U.S. sectoral stock nexus

This article accounts for the impact of positive and negative shocks of the news-related Climate Policy Uncertainty (CPU) and the novel Economist Intelligence Unit's report-based global Energy Uncertainty (EU) on the U.S. sectoral stock returns by using the ARDL and NARDL approaches with dynamic multiplier simulations. We also utilize both the DCC-GARCH and ADCC-GARCH approaches to extract the symmetric and asymmetric dynamic conditional correlations between the EU and the U.S. sectoral stock returns and then regress these conditional correlation series on the CPU through series of quantile regressions. Overall, the findings suggest that only the positive CPU shocks negatively impact the U.S. sectoral stock returns of Consumer Services, Financials, Industries, Telecommunication and Utilities in the long-term, whereas the negative CPU shocks insignificantly predict the U.S. sectoral returns. The findings also report that only the negative EU shocks increase the U.S. sectoral stock returns of Consumer Services, Financials, Health Care, Industries, Moreover, the positive (negative) EU shocks cause the U.S. sectoral returns of Materials and Technology to decrease (increase) in the long-term. Portfolio managers may consider diversifying their portfolios to include sectors least susceptible to negative impacts from the CPU and EU shocks such as Health Care and Oil & Gas. Our findings also show that CPU shocks moderate the dynamic conditional correlations between the EU and the U.S. sectoral returns of Consumer Services, Materials, Health Care, Telecommunication, Oil and Gas and Utility. Fund managers should contemplate augmenting the allocations to the Financials, Industrials, and Technology sectors owing to their diminished interconnectivity with the EU during periods of heightened CPU.

Unblocking COVID-19 impact on stock returns

COVID-19 altered global economics activities during the pandemic period and still affects the stock returns. As worldwide resulted, this shift has changed the Pakistani stock returns activities. This study unfolds the impact of COVID-19 on stock returns frequency of pharmaceutical, power generation, technology and communication, and food sectors in Pakistan. To examine the relationship of above-mentioned sectors with stock returns, data were evaluated through event window that included the event dates of the 150-day and 60-day estimating period. COVID-19 has a considerable detrimental influence on stock returns during the post-event interval. The study findings showcase significant negative relationship with stock returns of the above-mentioned sectors. However, the results are contradictory during the second wave of coronavirus infection. Furthermore, the study also substantiates that COVID-19 has significantly affected the stock market performances of Pakistan. Still, the impact on the stock market performances was only for a short period, and it diminished in the second wave of COVID-19 spread in Pakistan. The findings contribute to the research on the stock returns of selected sectors and commodity market impact of a pandemic by providing empirical evidence that COVID-19 has spill-over effects on stock market. This result also helps investors in assessing the trends of the stock and commodity markets during the pandemic outbreak. Managers are encouraged to modify their strategies to maintain stocks of the firm for better performance under the direction of study findings.

Asset prices in a production network

The relative importance of sectoral and aggregate productivity shocks in asset pricing is examined using a nonlinear dynamic equilibrium model where heterogeneous sectors interact in a production network. The model accounts for the heterogeneity in sectoral stock returns and endogenously generates conditional heteroskedasticity and fat tails. The equity risk premium is shown to be driven by sectoral shocks – specially to investment good producers and mining – with a limited contribution from the aggregate shock. SMM estimates of the elasticities of substitution between material inputs and between investment goods support the assumption of gross complementarity employed by previous network literature.

Impact of crude oil price volatility on Indian stock market returns: A quantile regression approach

This paper examines the heterogenous effect of oil price volatility on Indian sectoral stock returns for the period January 2011 to September 2022 using the quantile regression method, which helps us to analyse the impact in bearish, normal, and bullish periods. The results show that total and sectoral stock returns are negatively affected by oil price fluctuations and the negative effect is stronger during the bearish period. In the normal and bullish periods, oil price volatility does not affect stock returns greatly. The interest rate and exchange rate changes have a stronger effect on sectoral returns in the bearish period in the pharmaceutical, healthcare, banking and finance, IT, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG), and consumer durables sectors. The study shows that the impact of oil price volatility on sectoral returns is less than the impact of interest rate and exchange rate changes. The study also shows that oil price volatility directly impacts market portfolio returns initially, which subsequently spills over to sectoral returns, which implies that sectoral returns are impacted by oil price volatility through an indirect channel.

Do Crude Oil Price Fluctuations Affect the Sectoral Stock Returns: Evidence from India

Crude oil is a vital energy source for industrialised and developing countries. Both investors who trade crude oil derivatives and firms that use oil as raw material for production monitor oil supply and demand. Disruption in the flow of oil in the commodity markets, therefore, leads to oil price volatility that affects major economies worldwide. Often, geopolitical and natural conditions could adversely impact the oil price and the financial markets react to such fluctuations in oil prices. This paper analyses the effects of oil price changes on sectorial stock returns in India. Using daily returns of S&P BSE Sensex, S&P BSE Oil & Gas and S&P BSE-Auto sectoral indices from January 2000 to March 2020, we examined the impact of Brent crude oil price fluctuations on the two major sectorial stock indices and overall market index. The results of the Granger causality test show significant results on S&P BSE-Sensex and S&P BSE-Oil and Gas Index Returns except S&P BSE-Auto Index Returns. Further for contemporaneous association between the oil price changes and sectorial returns, we operationalised the simple regression analysis. The results from the regression analysis show statistically significant impact of crude oil price fluctuations on the sectorial returns.

Quantile dependencies between exchange rate volatility and sectoral stock returns in South Africa

ABSTRACT This study assesses the effect of USD-Rand exchange rate volatility on South African sectoral stock returns between 29 March 1996 and 28 July 2022. Using the quantile-on-quantile regression (QQR) technique, we uncover that, although each of the sectors exhibit important idiosyncrasies, there exists a single overarching relationship between exchange rate volatility and stock returns that persists across all sectors. We find that low levels of volatility in the exchange rate have a negative impact on stock returns. Conversely, high levels of exchange rate volatility have a positive impact on stock returns. The most important implication of the findings of this study is that investors should have a keen awareness of movements in both the exchange rate and stock markets.

The Effects of Energy Prices on Oil-Gas Sectoral Stock Returns for BRIC Countries: Evidence from Space State Models

This paper examines the effects of oil and natural gas prices on the oil and gas sectors of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) over the period over from 20013 to 2022. Unlike previous studies, it employs a time-varying capital asset pricing model based on the estimation of state-space mode. In brief, the findings highlight significant changes in the asset-pricing model parameters across all countries, indicating the limitations of using time-invariant estimates. Specifically, Brazil shows the highest volatility in oil price risk, followed by Russia, both being oil-exporting countries, while market beta values remain relatively stable. Time-varying estimates further suggest that natural gas parameters are relatively lower and less significant than those of oil prices. The Russian-Ukrainian conflict's energy crisis adversely affects the performance of oil and gas sectoral stock returns. This war has had a negative and significant impact on China's oil-gas stock return.

Petrol Fiyatlarının Ulaştırma Sektörü Hisse Senedi Getirilerine Etkisi: Türkiye Hisse Senedi Piyasası Örneği

This study examines the impact of crude oil prices on transportation sector stock returns of Turkey. ARDL Bound Test approach is utilized to investigate both long-run and short-run impacts. Research findings show that crude oil prices have an adverse impact on stock returns in short-run since oil is a crucial input for transportation firms. However, in long-run, increasing oil prices enhance stock returns in the sector. This result can be explained by the oligopolistic market structure of the industry. This study also investigated the impact of other factors on stock returns such as macroeconomic activity, aggregate stock market performance, and global economic policy uncertainty. The results imply that transportation sector returns are also highly sensitive to macroeconomic and aggregate stock market performances. Besides its academic contribution to the literature, the findings of this research offer precious practical implications for financial investors, industry stakeholders, and policymakers as well.

The impact of cases and death reports of COVID-19 on prices and returns

Both the technology sector and the health sector are important issues for investors during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021. This study aims to examine the impact of cases and death reports on the prices and stock returns especially for firms in the technology and health sectors. On this purpose, the sample is taken for the period January 4 2021 to December 30, 2021. The results of correlation and mean difference tests show that cases and death reports of COVID-19 are not the main cause in influencing stock prices and stock returns of both sectors. The findings suspect that management performance or prospects of the two sectors will trigger synergy in creating a unidirectional relationship between stock prices and stock returns.

Comparison and relationship of returns: Case of technology and healthcare sectors

The Covid-19 pandemic can have both positive and negative impacts. The technology sector and the health sector are sectors that have experienced significant increases since the pandemic. The objective of this study is to examine the comparison and relationship between firms engaged in the technology sector and the health sector in Indonesia. The results of the analysis over the period 17 June 2021 to 3 June 2022 show that the returns of both sectors are not significantly different. Empirically, this study proves that stock returns of both sectors are not unidirectional and have an insignificant relationship.

Impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on stock returns of Indian healthcare and tourism sectors

The rapid spread of the novel coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) has adversely impacted global economies and stock markets. This study employs an event study methodology to assess the impact of COVID-19 on stock returns in the healthcare (66 stocks) and tourism (39 stocks) sectors in Indian markets surrounding two events: a) the first COVID-19 case reported in India and b) the announcement of a nationwide lockdown. The findings indicate that investors’ reactions to both events were distinct and asymmetric in healthcare and tourism sectors. The tourism sector stocks react more negatively to the second event than the first, with –2.46% vs. –0.59% event day abnormal returns, respectively. The corresponding figures for healthcare sector stocks are –0.68% and –0.16%, respectively. As expected, pandemic events had a minor negative impact on the healthcare sector. Surprisingly, the tourism industry did not react negatively to the first event. Investors in the tourism industry underreacted to the first reported case; they could not predict the potential consequences and then overreacted to the lockdown announcement. The findings support the behavioral finance theory of underreaction and overreaction, particularly in stressful situations. The study has implications for investors and money managers looking for profitable investment opportunities due to temporary dislocations in stock prices caused by investors’ irrational reactions to certain black swan events.

Oil prices and sectoral stock returns in the BRICS-T countries: A time-varying approach

This paper investigates how exchange rates and oil prices have affected sectoral stock returns in the BRICS-T countries over the period from 2 January 2001 to 22 March 2021. Following the estimation of a benchmark linear model, Bai and Perron (2003) tests are carried out in each case to identify structural breaks, and then a state-space model with time-varying parameters is also estimated. The analysis shows that oil prices have a significant, positive effect on the energy sectors of all BRICS-T countries except India; a negative one on the industrial sectors of all countries except Turkey; a negative one on the financial sectors of Brazil, Russia, India, and South Africa; a negative one on the transportation sectors of India and Turkey and a positive one on that of Russia; finally, the most significant effect is on the chemicals sector, though it varies across countries. The subsamples and time-varying estimates indicate that exchange rate returns have a larger influence than oil price returns. Because energy-dependent sectors are vulnerable to global volatility, appropriate energy regulations should be implemented to reduce risk.

Uncertainty and US stock market dynamics

This study investigates the long-term and dynamic relationship between US sector stock returns and risk factors, focusing on uncertainty. Uncertainty risk factors include volatility indices associated with the equity (VIX), fixed-income (TYVIX), oil (OVX), and foreign exchange (EUVIX) markets. The cointegration analysis shows that VIX, TYVIX, OVX, and EUVIX are collectively driving forces of US sector indices in the long run. The causality testing results reveal that uncertainty about long-term interest rates, as proxied by TYVIX, exerts a significant effect on US stock market performance across sectors. Interestingly, in determining the variability of sector stock returns, we find that shocks to the uncertainty of crude oil prices and the exchange rate play a more important role than shocks to their levels. Risk diversification opportunities are identified.

Pandemic uncertainty and sectoral stock returns predictability in South Africa

PurposeIn this paper, the author examines the role of uncertainty due to pandemic on the predictability of sectoral stock returns in South Africa. This is motivated by the ongoing global pandemic, COVID-19, in predicting sector stock returns.Design/methodology/approachThe study considers estimation of dynamic panel data with dynamic common correlated effects estimator and two pair-wise forecast measures, namely Campbell and Thompson (2008) and Clark and West (2007) tests in dealing with the nested predictive models.FindingsThe results show that pandemic uncertainty has a negative and statistically significant effect on the different sector returns, implying that sector stock returns decline as the pandemic outbreak becomes more pronounced. While the single predictor model consistently outperforms the historical average model both for in-sample and out-of-sample, controlling for other macroeconomic variables effect improves the forecast accuracy of infectious diseases uncertainty. These results are consistently robust to both the in-sample and out-of-sample forecast periods, outliers and heterogeneity. These results have implications for portfolio diversification strategies, which we set aside for future research.Originality/valueThe empirical literature is satiated with studies on how news can predict economic and financial variables, however, the role of uncertainty due to infectious diseases in the stock return predictability especially at the sectoral level is less understudied, this is the main contribution of the study.