Stochastically Research Articles

Modeling Kenyan Economic Impact of Corona Virus in Kenya Using Discrete-Time Markov Chains

Since the outbreak of pandemic COVID-19 (Corona virus), many countries have continued to suffer economically leading to massive losses in terms of trillions of dollars globally in terms of trade loses. In reaction to this effect, many countries in the world have taken emergency measures to ensure that the impact does not lead to huge economic and financial implications in terms of rapid recession. In Africa, where many countries have taken measures to deal with global recession to the citizens especially through fiscal and monetary policies, which includes Kenya. In addition, the social economic statues have continued to change instantaneously and stochastically more so after huge number of populations losing their daily informal jobs with new measures to stop the spread of COVID-19 virus. This paper seeks to model the effect of COVID-19 pandemic on Kenyan Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contributors using a Discrete-time Markov Chain Analysis. In addition, the paper seeks to find the ultimate effect of the Covid-19 to the top five key sectors of the Kenyan economy that contributes massively to GDP growth by looking at the proportion of the contributors at steady state. Moreover, the results from this paper should help the government of Kenya as well as global investors to understand different economic stimulus planning packages to launch in the “hard-hit” sectors of the economy to reduce the impact of the potential economic recession. Ultimately, the information should be help in formulating a post COVID-19 economic recovery plan for the Kenyan economy but also act as a benchmark strategy for many other countries in Africa that has economic and financial dynamics similar to that of Kenya.

The effect of continuous infusion of lidocaine on high mobility group box 1 expression in lung tissue of sepsis model rats

Objective To evaluate the effect and mechanism of intravenous infusion of lidocaine on the expression of high mobility group box 1 (HMGB1) mRNA in lung of sepsis model rats. Methods Senenty-five healthy male Sprague-Dawley (SD) rats were stochastically divided into 5 groups (n=15): S group (group S), cecal ligation and puncture (CLP) group (group CLP), pre-CLP infusion the lidocaine group (group L1), CLP immediately infused with lidocaine (group L2) and CLP infused with the lidocaine-treated group (group L3). Group S suture abdominal cavity after opening it while other groups were ligated with cecal ligation and puncture. groups L1, L2 and L3 were infused with lidocaine for 3 h before CLP, at the moment of CLP started and 3 h after CLP was completed respectively. The group S and the group CLP were replaced by the same amount of normal saline. The rats were sacrificed 24 h after the CLP model was successfully established. The serum levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines IL-6, TNF-α and HMGB1 concentration were measured by enzyme-limked immunosorbent assay(ELISA). The expression of HMGB1 mRNA in lung tissue was detected by qRT-PCR. Automated biochemical analysis was used to detect serum ALT, AST, and Cr. Another 50 rats were grouped and observed for 72 h. Results Compared with group S, CLP occurred in the group CLP, group L1, group L2 and group L3, IL-6, TNF-α, HMGB1 concentrations and the expression of HMGB1 mRNA were increased in lung tissues (P<0.05). The serum levels of HMGB1, IL-6, TNF-α and HMGB1 mRNA in lung tissues of the groups L1, L2 and L3 were significantly lower than those in the group CLP (P<0.05). Compared with group S, ALT, AST and Cr were increased in groups CLP, L1, L2, and L3(P<0.05). Compared with group CLP, ALT, AST and Cr were decreased in groups L1, L2 and L3(P<0.05). Compared with the group CLP, the survival rates of the groups L1, L2 and L3 were significantly improved. Conclusions CLP can increase the expression levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines in rats. Intravenous infusion of lidocaine can effectively reduce the expression of inflammatory factors in CLP rats and inhibit the expression of HMGB1 mRNA in lung tissues. Thus, it reduces the lung damage caused by CLP and improves the survival rate effectively. Key words: Lidocaine; Sepsis; High mobility group box 1

HWRF Based Ensemble Prediction System Using Perturbations from GEFS and Stochastic Convective Trigger Function

ABSTRACT In this study, an ensemble prediction system (EPS) for the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (HWRF) model at the Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is introduced and evaluated. The HWRF-EPS takes into account two main sources of uncertainties related to the initial/boundary conditions and the model physics by 1) using the large scale fields from NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS); and 2) stochastically perturbing the convective trigger function in the cumulus convection parameterization scheme. Verification for the 2011-2012 North Atlantic hurricane seasons shows that HWRF-EPS outperforms its deterministic versions at all lead times for both track and intensity forecast errors. Statistical characteristics are investigated and analyzed to demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the HWRF-EPS. The relationship between ensemble spread and forecast error for track and intensity in the HWRF-EPS indicated that the spread is likely more useful as a predictor of forecast error when it has moderately low values. Rank histogram analysis shows that the HWRF-EPS is well dispersed in both track and intensity forecasts except for the systematic errors inherited from the deterministic version. Further comparison with 2012 hurricane season’s top-flight models shows improved track and intensity forecasts from the HWRF-EPS.

Effect of ginsenoside Rg1 on activity of spinal microglia and expression of p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase/nuclear transcription factor-kappa B in neuropathic pain rats

Objective To evaluate the effect of analgesia of ginsenoside Rg1(Rg1) in neuropathic pain(NP) and to investigate the changes in activation of both microglial cells in dorsal horn of spinal cord and p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase(p38MAPK)/NF-κB signaling pathway within microglia. Methods Thirty six rats having been intrathecally catheterized successfully were stochastically divided into 6 groups (6 rats for each group) respectively including sham+natural saline group(group A), chronic constrictive injury(CCI)+natural saline group (group B), CCI+low-dose Rg1 group (group C), CCI+middle-dose Rg1 group(group D), CCI+high-dose Rg1 group(group E) and CCI+minocycline group(group F). Among all groups except group A, the left common sciatic nerve of anesthetized rats was exposed to four silk ligatures(3-0) which were tied loosely proximal to the sciatic nerve's trifurcation. Different medicines were injected intrathecally(i.t.) 1 d before and 1 d, 3 d and 5 d after CCI. Behavioral assessment of anti-nociceptive effects was conducted by thermal withdrawal latency(TWL) method. The content of p38MAPK, phosphorylated p65(p-p65)(member of NF-κB superfamily) and ionized calcium binding adaptor molecule-1(IBA-1) was detected by Western blot method. The level of OX-42, one marker of microglia was examined by immunohistochemistry method. Results ① TWL values of group C, group D and group E were significantly higher than value of group B. The effect was in a dose-dependent manner(P<0.05). ② Compared with group B, over-activation of microglia in group C, group D and group E were markedly suppressed, indicated by deeply inhibited expression of IBA-1 and OX-42, two markers of microglia(P<0.05). ③ Phosphorylation of relevant molecules in p38MAPK signaling pathway in comparison to which in group B such as p38MAPK and NF-κB was attenuated abundantly in group C, group D and group E(P<0.05). Conclusions Activation of p38 MAPK/NF-κB signaling pathway in dorsal horn microglia may be a crucial event in the pathogenesis of NP. It is also suggested that Rg1, a new inhibitor of microglia might be a viable therapeutic strategy for treating NP. Key words: Neuropathic pain; Ginsenoside Rg1; Chronic constrictive injury; p38 mitogen-activated protein kinase/nuclear transcription factor-kappa B

The value of prenatally quantitative sonography in diagnosing clubfoot

Objective To investigate the value of prenatally quantitative sonography in diagnosing clubfoot. Methods By routine sonography totally 32 feet diagnosed doubtfully with clubfoot were chosen as case group, and 414 normal feet between 16 and 38 weeks′ gestation were enrolled in control group stochastically. The length of foot(FL) and width of the foot(FW) in both group were measured, and then the length-to-width ratio(FL/FW) was calculated. On the basis of the research of Glotzbecker, the angle that the long-axis of the foot made with the long-axis of the lower leg was measured and classified into mild, moderate, severe degree in control group. The length and width of the foot and the length-to-width ratio in both groups were compared. After birth, the fetuses of case group were followed up and Dimeglio score was recorded. The FL/FW and the angle that the long-axis of the foot made with the long-axis of the lower leg were subjected to the correlation analysis with Dimeglio score, respectively. Results Twenty-six of the 32 feet with prenatal diagnosis had a clubfoot documented at birth (false positive equals to 18.8%). According to Glotzbecker′s classification, 13, 13 and 5 of 32 feet respectively were classified as mild, moderate, severe degree. The FL and FL/FW in case group were smaller than those in the other group(FL: Z=-2.10, P<0.05; FL/FW: Z=-8.46, P<0.001), and the foot width was wider(Z=-2.06, P<0.05). Significant negative correlation was identified between the FL/FW and the Dimeglio score (r=-0.600, P<0.01) and significant positive correlation was identified between the angle that the long-axis of the foot made with the long-axis of the lower leg and the Dimeglio score (r=0.764, P<0.01). Conclusions The angle that the long-axis of the foot made with the long-axis of the lower leg, FL, FW and FL/FW can provide more information for prenatally sonography in diagnosing clubfoot without more section of the examination. Key words: Ultrasonography, prenatal; Clubfoot

Single molecular biology: coming of age in DNA replication.

DNA replication is an essential process of the living organisms. To achieve precise and reliable replication, DNA polymerases play a central role in DNA synthesis. Previous investigations have shown that the average rates of DNA synthesis on the leading and lagging strands in a replisome must be similar to avoid the formation of significant gaps in the nascent strands. The underlying mechanism has been assumed to be coordination between leading- and lagging-strand polymerases. However, Kowalczykowski's lab members recently performed single molecule techniques in E. coli and showed the real-time behavior of a replisome. The leading- and lagging-strand polymerases function stochastically and independently. Furthermore, when a DNA polymerase is paused, the helicase slows down in a self-regulating fail-safe mechanism, akin to a ''dead-man's switch''. Based on the real-time single-molecular observation, the authors propose that leading- and lagging-strand polymerases synthesize DNA stochastically within a Gaussian distribution. Along with the development and application of single-molecule techniques, we will witness a new age of DNA replication and other biological researches.

Stochastically optimal bootstrap sample size for shrinkage-type statistics

In nonregular problems where the conventional $$n$$n out of $$n$$n bootstrap is inconsistent, the $$m$$m out of $$n$$n bootstrap provides a useful remedy to restore consistency. Conventionally, opt...

Cointegration and Error Correction Modelling in Time-Series Analysis: A Brief Introduction

Criminological research is often based on time-series data showing some type of trend movement. Trending time-series may correlate strongly even in cases where no causal relationship exists (spurious causality). To avoid this problem researchers often apply some technique of detrending their data, such as by differencing the series. This approach, however, may bring up another problem: that of spurious non-causality. Both problems can, in principle, be avoided if the series under investigation are “difference-stationary” (if the trend movements are stochastic) and “cointegrated” (if the stochastically changing trendmovements in different variables correspond to each other). The article gives a brief introduction to key instruments and interpretative tools applied in cointegration modelling.

Stochastic Analysis of Thermal Cracking Distress of Asphalt Pavements Using the MEPDG Thermal Cracking Model

The objective of the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) 9-22 project was to develop a Quality Assurance (QA) system for asphalt pavements in conjunction with Performance Related Specifications (PRS). The project was originally intended to use the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) as the performance prediction simulator. However, since the probabilistic assessment of the MEPDG required hundreds, if not thousands, of solution simulations; the computational time was found to be excessive as a quicker solution was critically necessary. The study presented in this paper has been conducted as part of the effort associated with the development of a rapid thermal cracking (TC) prediction methodology and the estimation of the variance of TC. The Rosenblueth method and the Beta frequency distribution were used to estimate the first and second moments (average and standard deviation) of TC and its service life. The proposed TC stochastic framework showed a successful performance and was accordingly incorporated into the PRS QA system developed under NCHRP 9-22. The ultimate purpose of the developed QA system is to stochastically evaluate the incentive/disincentive for the contractors.

Therapeutic evaluation of preoperative restricted fluid resuscitation for thoracic and abdominal trauma combined with hemorrhagic shock

Objective To discuss about the application of early restricted fluid resuscitation in dealing with thoracic and abdominal trauma combined with hemorrhagic shock.Methods 140 cases of patients with thoracic and abdominal trauma combined with hemorrhagic shock were divided into two groups stochastically,one group was dealt with conventional liquid resuscitation (the control group,71 cases),the other group was treated with limited fluid resuscitation (the limited group,69 cases).The patients of the control group were treated substantial rehydration therapy,the rehydration was carried out quickly and sufficiently in the early before hemostasis,to keep the mean arterial pressure (MAP) at 80～90 mmHg (1 mmHg=0.133 kPa); The amount and velocity of entering liquid of the limited group was under controlled,their MAP was kept at 55～65 mmHg,Adequate fluid resuscitation was carried out after bleeding was stopped.The average amount of infusion,the general situation,the incidences of complications and the death rates of two groups were compared.Results The average amount of infusion in the control group was significantly more than the limited group,the preoperative Hb and HCT of the control group were obviously lower than the limited group,the incidence of complications and the death rate of the control group were higher than the limited group.Conclusions If preoperative restricted fluid resuscitation for traumatic shock was used,the Harassing for Organism's compensatory mechanisms and internal environment could be avoided,the incidence of complications and the death rate will become lower,therefore,this method was worth to be extended in the clinical operation. Key words: Restricted fluid resuscitation; Shock; Bleeding; Thoracic trauma; Nursing

Research on the relationship between ecchymosis physique and the uterus myoma

Objective To summarize the tending physique of hysteromyoma patients and thus to provide the clinical prevention and treatment methods for the disease.Methods Clinical epidemiology investigation and study methods were adopted to design the unified investigation and study table.Questionnaire survey were performed stochastically to 150 hysteromyoma patients and 150 normal females.Various physique characteristics were recorded.Results Ecchymosis physique were commonly seen in hysteromyoma patients,accounting for 36.7％ in all patients.Conclusion The occurrence of hysteromyoma was closely related to ecchymosis physique. Key words: Uterus myoma; Ecchymosis physique; Epidemiology

Nursing and effect of airpump nebulization inhalation combining vibration sputum discharge device on treatment of infants with severe pneumonia

Objective To summarize the effect of airpump nebulization inhalation combining with vibration sputum discharge device in treatment of infants suffering from severe pneumonia and its main nursing point.Methods 138 infants who were attacked by severe pneumonia were divided stochastically into the control group and the experimental group with 69 infants in each group.Infants in both groups were treated with routine method.After airpump nebulization inhalation,sputum extraction was implemented for infants in the control group on basis of common remedy,while after airpump nebulization inhalation,sputum discharge and sputum extraction by mechanical vibration were implemented immediately for infants in the experimental group on basis of common remedy.The treatment effect was compared between two groups.Results Comparison between the two groups showed that in the experimental group,the time for fever,cough,expectoration and hospitalization was shorter,chest X-ray improved,PaO2 rose and PaCO2 lowered.Medical cost and cost-effect ratio decreased.Conclusions Airpump nebulization inhalation combining vibration sputum discharge device can effectively solve the problem of sputum accumulation for infants,improve physical sign of lung,shorten course of disease and alleviate state of infant's illness. Key words: Vibration expectorator; Severe pneumonia; Nebulization inhalation; Nursing

Comparison between two puncture methods for blood specimen collection from neonatal heel

Objective To compare the effects on blood specimen collection from neonatal heel by oblique puncture and vertical puncture methods,to increase the efficiency of puncturing in blood collection.Methods Two hundred eutocia,full-term infants were randomly divided into experimental group (oblique puncture) and control group( vertical puncture) by stochastically ballot,100 samples in each group,and the blood collection rate in two groups was compared.Results In the same condition,both experiment group (87 cases) and control group (56 cases) have higher efficiency in blood collection,but the experiment group is notably easier than control group (x2 =8.76,P＜0.01),however there is no significant difference in pain (t =0.55,P =0.58).Further,we observed the response of neonatal heel and found that both methods will not induce inflammation,but the peidnoma was significantly decreased in experiment group compared to control group ( x2 =9.26,P ＜ 0.01 ).The experiment group was significant high than control group.Conclusions Oblique puncture method is conformance to care program,and can significantly decrease the suffering of newborns,and increase the efficiency. Key words: Infant,newborn; Blood specimen collection; Oblique puncture; Vertical puncture

Constrained nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation of stochastically ordered survivor functions

AbstractThis paper considers estimators of survivor functions subject to a stochastic ordering constraint based on right censored data. We present the constrained nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (C‐NPMLE) of the survivor functions in one‐and two‐sample settings where the survivor distributions could be discrete or continuous and discuss the non‐uniqueness of the estimators. We also present a computationally efficient algorithm to obtain the C‐NPMLE. To address the possibility of non‐uniqueness of the C‐NPMLE of $S_1(t)$ when $S_1(t)\le S_2(t)$, we consider the maximum C‐NPMLE (MC‐NPMLE) of $S_1(t)$. In the one‐sample case with arbitrary upper bound survivor function $S_2(t)$, we present a novel and efficient algorithm for finding the MC‐NPMLE of $S_1(t)$. Dykstra (1982) also considered constrained nonparametric maximum likelihood estimation for such problems, however, as we show, Dykstra's method has an error and does not always give the C‐NPMLE. We corrected this error and simulation shows improvement in efficiency compared to Dykstra's estimator. Confidence intervals based on bootstrap methods are proposed and consistency of the estimators is proved. Data from a study on larynx cancer are analysed to illustrate the method. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 40: 22–39; 2012 © 2012 Statistical Society of Canada

Study on ache control degree of satisfaction for patients with tonsillectomy by advance analgesia

Objective To evaluated the ache control degree of satisfaction of patients with tonsillectomy by advance analgesia.Methods 103 patients who were randomized into two groups were instructed to use the pain rating scale.The control group stochastically (n =53) group was given pain killer in time.The aim of control was below three.The experimental group ( n =50) was given pain killer when they asked.Observe the effect of analgesics and ache control degree of satisfaction.Results The average pain on the 0 - 10 NRS of the 3 hour after operation was (3.900 =1.207) in the experimental and (4.830 ± 1.845) one day after operation in the morning,and those in the control group were (4.96 ± 1.611 ) and (5.590 ± 1.681 ) ; the differences between the two groups were statistically significant (t =- 3.657,- 2.067 ; P ＜ 0.05 ) ; dose of medicine during 24 h in experimental group were (90.25 ±31.25)mg,and (62.5 ±33)mg in the control group,and the difference was significant (t =3.01,P ＜0.01 ) ; ache control degree of satisfaction in experimental group was 90.6％ and in control group was 82.0％,the difference was significant ( x2 =11.2,P ＜ 0.05).Conclusions Advance analgesia could ease the pain more effectively.The ache control degree of satisfaction was improved. Key words: Tonsillectomy; Ache control; Pain,after operation ; Patient satisfaction

The effects of trolamine cream on preventing skin-reaction of nasopharyngeal cancer patients with radiotherapy

Objective To observe the effects of trolamine cream(biafine) on preventing nasopharyngeal cancer patients' radioactive skin-reaction after radiotherapy.Methods 110 nasopharyngeal cancer patients who use the linear accelerator radiotherapy were divided into the treatment group and the control group stochastically,the treatment group after the first radiotherapy was given trolamine cream to paint the irradiated coverage of skin,the control group only was given conventional nursing without any medicine.Observes two groups when 20 Gy,50 Gy,the 70 Gy dose the skin-reaction degree,and carries on the contrastive analysis.Results Treatment group and control group when 20 Gy dose,the skin-reaction rate is not remarkable difference,there is no statistical significance( x2 =6.25,P ＞ 0.05 ) ; While 50 Gy dose,the treatment group skin-reaction responds with degree Ⅰ (67.27％),control group with degree Ⅱ (45.45％),besides,14 degree Ⅲ skin reactions were occurred,there is significantly different( x2 =16.37,P ＜0.01 ) ; When 70 Gy,treatment group still with Ⅰand Ⅱ degree (81.82％),control group 70.90％ with Ⅲ degree,and 4 examples are forced to stop treatment because of the most serious skin reaction.To compare with control group,the skin-reaction of treatment group is obviously eased and deferred ( x2 =20.57,P ＜ 0.01 ).Conclusions Biafine can prevent skin-reaction of nasopharyngeal cancer patients' radioactive skin-reaction after radiotherapy,ease the patient' s pain,and make sure radiotherapy go on. Key words: Nasopharyngeal neoplasms; Radiotherapy; Radioactive skin-reaction; Trolamine cream

Ootside the cervical vertebra hard membrane sets at the tube injection ozone and guarantees the pine treatment cervical vertebra to get sick 130 example clinical analyses

Objective Discusses outside the hard membrane to set at the tube injection ozone and guarantees the clinical curative effect which the pine treatment cervical vertebra gets sick. Methods The use of epidural external pipe injection of ozone and drug treatment patients with cervical spondylosis, of which 130 cases of Cervical Radiculopathy 24 cases,cervical spondylosis,34 cases of cervical spondylosis 18 cases,sympathetic ,20 cases of cervical spondylotic myelopathy in 5 patients,mixing of 28 cases of cervical spondylosis. Divides into 2 groups stochastically, A group of 65 examples: Outside the cervical vertebra hard membrane injects the ozone (density 20 mg/L) 5 ml and guarantees loose inoculation fluid 1mg,daily one time, a 7 day of treatment course; B group of 65 examples, outside the cervical vertebra hard membrane inject guarantee loose inoculation fluid 1mng,daily one time,a 7 day of treatment course,observes 2 group of patient symptom improvement situation. Results Before treating the latter two group of patient symptom to treat the distinct improvement,A group of treatment result surpasses B group obviously. A group has statistics significance with B group of curative effect comparison difference ( P ＜ 0. 05 ). Conclusion Outside the cervical vertebra hard membrane injects the ozone and guarantees the pine treatment to be able to alleviate the cervical vertebra sickness patient symptom effectively. Key words: Cervical spondylosis; Ozone; Diprospan

Using Procedural Modelling as a Framework for Representing Style: An Example from Regency Architecture

This paper reports the use of shape grammars, as made available in CityEngine, to deconstruct six examples of Regency facades and uses them to form a reconstruction of Brunswick Square, in Brighton and Hove, UK. The aim of the research is to evaluate the potential for shape grammar rules to effectively encapsulate aspects of style in a formal, computational language. It is argued that such a system could both result in a stochastically based definition of Regency style with a measurable degree of certainty and enable the presentation of historical periods of history in a real-time virtual environment.

The clinical observation which COPD with bulla on Salmeterol/fluticasone propionate

Objective To approach the therapeutic effect of Salmeterol/fluticasone propionate on COPD with bulla. Methods Divides into 2 groups stochastically 120 example COPD patients, the control group uses the conventional treatment, the treatment group besides the conventional treatment, the inspiration Salmeterol/fluticasone propionate treats 12 months, observe the number of the increasing bullas and the original bulla. Results The treatment group sends the bulla cases of illness greatly not newly, original bulla does not have the change greatly, compares to the control group there were the significance difference. (P＜ 0. 05). Conclusion The inspiration Salmeterol/fluticasone propionate treats COPD to be possible to reduce the occurrence which the proliferating bulla, delays progress which the bulla. Key words: Salmeterol/fluticasone propionate; Bulla; Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

The clinical observation of the post-natal breast massage reducing the breast painfully swollen and promoting milk secretion

Objective To discusses the feasibility and the effect of post-natal carries on the breast massage to reduce the breast painfully swollen and promote milk secretion aspect. Methods Choosed my courtyard in hospital childbirth non-pregnancy complications single embryo,term delivery's parturient women 100 examples divide into two groups stochastically,the treatment group post-natal I st day start to give the breast massage,the massage technique and the breast nursing method carry on strictly according to the regulations. The control group carries on breast nursing according to obstetrics eonvention. Results The treatnent group parturient women breast painfully swollen degree and the milk secretion situation and the control group have the significance difference. Conclusion Post-natal breast massage can be possible to reduce the breast painfully swotlen and the promotion milk secretion increases,thus enhances breast fecding to result in the success ratio. Key words: Post-natal; Breast massage; Breast painfully swollen; Milk secretion