Steric Sea Level Research Articles

Projection of Sea Level Change in the South China Sea Based on Dynamical Downscaling

The projection of future sea level change is usually based on the global climate models (GCMs); however, due to the low spatial resolution of the GCMs, the ability to reproduce the spatial heterogeneity of sea level is limited. In order to improve the sea level simulation capability in the South China Sea (SCS), a high-resolution ocean model has been established by using the dynamic downscaling technology. By evaluating and testing 20 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), average results of seven models were selected as the forcing condition of the high-resolution ocean model. The ocean model conducted the historical (1980~2014) and future (2015~2100) simulation under three scenarios of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5). The selected average results of seven models in CMIP6 are better than any of them individually. The downscaled dynamic ocean model provides fruitful spatial characteristics of the sea level change, with a decrease in the dynamic sea level (DSL) in the central and southeastern parts of the SCS, and with a significant increase in the coastal DSL. The local steric sea level (SSL) is dominated by the local thermosteric sea level (TSSL), and the changes of local TSSL more than half of the sea level rise in SCS, indicate the magnitude of total sea level rise is dominated by local TSSL. But the spatial variation in total sea level is dominated by the spatial variation in DSL. Compared with CMIP5, the rise magnitude of the DSL and the local TSSL have been increased under the CMIP6 scenarios. The dynamic downscaling of sea level reveals more spatial details, provides more reliable projection of future sea level under the background of global warming, and can provide a new reference for coastal areas in the SCS to cope with the increasing risk of extreme water level disasters in the future.

Quantifying the contribution of temperature, salinity, and climate change to sea level rise in the Pacific Ocean: 2005-2019

In recent decades, Pacific Ocean’s steric sea level anomaly (SSLA) has shown prominent patterns among global sea level variations. With ongoing global warming, the frequency and intensity of climate and sea level changes have increased, particularly in the tropical Pacific region. Therefore, it is crucial to comprehend the overall trends and mechanisms governing volumetric sea level changes in the Pacific. To accurately quantify the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of density-driven sea level change in the Pacific Ocean (PO) from 2005 to 2019, we decomposed temperature and salinity into linear trends, interannual variations, seasonal variations, and residual terms using the STL (seasonal-trend decomposition based on loess) method. To evaluate the influence of ocean temperature, salinity, and climate change on density-driven sea level change and its underlying mechanisms, we decompose temperature as well as salinity changes through into the Heaving (vertical displacements of isopycnal surfaces) and Spicing (density-compensated temperature and salinity change) modes. The findings reveal an average steric sea level rise rate of 0.34 ± 0.16 mm/yr in the PO from 2005 to 2019. Thermosteric sea-level accounts for 82% of this rise, primarily due to seawater temperature rise at depths of 0-700 m caused by Heaving mode changes. Accelerated SSLA increase via the thermosteric effect has been connected to interactions between greater Ekman downwelling from surface winds, radiation forcing linked to global greenhouse gases, and changes in the Pacific warm currents triggered by El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes. Although salinity is affected by the Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) and the Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) in the southern Indian Ocean, however the significance of salinity in sea level change is little compared to the role played by thermocline shift. This study offers a substantial contribution to the field, providing robust data and technical support, and facilitating a deeper understanding of the mechanisms underlying the effects of temperature and salinity on sea level changes during periods of rapid climate change, thus enhancing the accuracy of future predictions regarding sea level rise.

Drift of Earth's Pole Confirms Groundwater Depletion as a Significant Contributor to Global Sea Level Rise 1993–2010

AbstractClimate model estimates show significant groundwater depletion during the 20th century, consistent with global mean sea level (GMSL) budget analysis. However, prior to the Argo float era, in the early 2000’s, there is little information about steric sea level contributions to GMSL, making the role of groundwater depletion in this period less certain. We show that a useful constraint is found in observed polar motion (PM). In the period 1993–2010, we find that predicted PM excitation trends estimated from various sources of surface mass loads and the estimated glacial isostatic adjustment agree very well with the observed. Among many contributors to the PM excitation trend, groundwater storage changes are estimated to be the second largest (4.36 cm/yr) toward 64.16°E. Neglecting groundwater effects, the predicted trend differs significantly from the observed. PM observations may also provide a tool for studying historical continental scale water storage variations.

Global ocean reanalysis CORA2 and its inter comparison with a set of other reanalysis products

We present the China Ocean ReAnalysis version 2 (CORA2) in this paper. We compare CORA2 with its predecessor, CORA1, and with other ocean reanalysis products created between 2004 and 2019 [GLORYS12v1 (Global Ocean reanalysis and Simulation), HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model), GREP (Global ocean Reanalysis Ensemble Product), SODA3 (Simple Ocean Data Assimilation, version 3), and ECCO4 (Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean, version 4)], to demonstrate its improvements and reliability. In addition to providing tide and sea ice signals, the accuracy and eddy kinetic energy (EKE) of CORA2 are also improved owing to an enhanced resolution of 9 km and updated data assimilation scheme compared with CORA1. Error analysis shows that the root-mean-square error (RMSE) of CORA2 sea-surface temperature (SST) remains around 0.3°C, which is comparable to that of GREP and smaller than those of the other products studied. The subsurface temperature (salinity) RMSE of CORA2, at 0.87°C (0.15 psu), is comparable to that of SODA3, smaller than that of ECCO4, and larger than those of GLORYS12v1, HYCOM, and GREP. CORA2 and GLORYS12v1 can better represent sub-monthly-scale variations in subsurface temperature and salinity than the other products. Although the correlation coefficient of sea-level anomaly (SLA) in CORA2 does not exceed 0.8 in the whole region, as those of GREP and GLORYS12v1 do, it is more effective than ECCO4 and SODA3 in the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. CORA2 can reproduce the variations in steric sea level and ocean heat content (OHC) on the multiple timescales as the other products. The linear trend of the steric sea level of CORA2 is closer to that of GREP than that of the other products, and the long-term warming trends of global OHC in the high-resolution CORA2 and GLORYS12v1 are greater than those in the low-resolution EN4 and GREP. Although CORA2 shows overall poorer performance in the Atlantic Ocean, it still achieves good results from 2009 onward. We plan to further improve CORA2 by assimilating the best available observation data using the incremental analysis update (IAU) procedure and improving the SLA assimilation method.

Sources and Sinks of Interannual Steric Sea Level Variability

AbstractUnderstanding the mechanisms of regional steric sea level variability is fundamental to understand the regional sea level variability recorded by satellite altimetry for years and to insure that future projections made by climate models are realistic. Here, we first develop a novel method based on steric sea level variance budget that allows to detect the sources and sinks of the variability. Using the “Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean” (ECCO V4) state estimate, we then show that interannual steric sea level variability is mainly sustained by interannual fluctuating winds via Ekman transport almost everywhere. The damping of the variability is made by both the interannual fluctuating net heat flux from the atmosphere, that largely dominates the atmospheric freshwater fluxes, and the parametrized effect of eddies. It is also found that the parametrized effect of diffusion on the variability is weak in most regions and that, although globally weak, the fluctuations of atmospheric freshwater fluxes are a source of variance close to the Equator in the Pacific Ocean.

Forcing Mechanisms of the Interannual Sea Level Variability in the Midlatitude South Pacific during 2004–2020

Over the past few decades, the global mean sea level rise and superimposed regional fluctuations of sea level have exerted considerable stress on coastal communities, especially in low-elevation regions such as the Pacific Islands in the western South Pacific Ocean. This made it necessary to have the most comprehensive understanding of the forcing mechanisms that are responsible for the increasing rates of extreme sea level events. In this study, we explore the causes of the observed sea level variability in the midlatitude South Pacific on interannual time scales using observations and atmospheric reanalyses combined with a 1.5 layer reduced-gravity model. We focus on the 2004–2020 period, during which the Argo’s global array allowed us to assess year-to-year changes in steric sea level caused by thermohaline changes in different depth ranges (from the surface down to 2000 m). We find that during the 2015–2016 El Niño and the following 2017–2018 La Niña, large variations in thermosteric sea level occurred due to temperature changes within the 100–500 dbar layer in the midlatitude southwest Pacific. In the western boundary region (from 30°S to 40°S), the variations in halosteric sea level between 100 and 500 dbar were significant and could have partially balanced the corresponding changes in thermosteric sea level. We show that around 35°S, baroclinic Rossby waves forced by the open-ocean wind-stress forcing account for 40 to 75% of the interannual sea level variance between 100°W and 180°, while the influence of remote sea level signals generated near the Chilean coast is limited to the region east of 100°W. The contribution of surface heat fluxes on interannual time scales is also considered and shown to be negligible.

Barystatic and steric sea level variations in the Baltic Sea and implications of water exchange with the North Sea in the satellite era

Satellite altimetry, satellite gravimetry, and in-situ subsurface salinity and temperature profiles are used to investigate the total, barystatic, and steric sea level variations in the Baltic Sea, respectively. To estimate the steric sea level, the density variations are weighted in deeper layers to prevent overestimation of their contribution. We show that the sum of barystatic and steric components exhibits excellent cross correlation (0.9) with satellite altimetry sea level variations and also explains up to 84% of total signal variability from 2002 to 2019. Considering the dominance of barystatic sea level variations in the basin and the limitation of satellite gravimetry in resolving the mass change in water-land transition zones (known as the leakage problem), the mismatch is likely attributed to the inadequate accuracy of the barystatic datasets. The total sea level and its contributors are further decomposed into seasonal, interannual, and decadal temporal components. It is shown that despite its insignificant contributions to seasonal and interannual changes, the steric sea level plays an important role in decadal variations. Additionally, we show that the interannual variations of the barystatic sea level are governed by the North Atlantic Oscillation in the basin. The sea level variation in the North Sea is also examined to deduce the water exchange patterns on different time scales. A drop in the North Sea level can be seen from 2005 to 2011 which is followed by the Baltic Sea level with a ~3-year lag, implying the outflow from the Baltic Sea to the North Sea.

Revisiting the 2003–18 Deep Ocean Warming through Multiplatform Analysis of the Global Energy Budget

Abstract Recent estimates of the global warming rates suggest that approximately 9% of Earth’s excess heat has been cumulated in the deep and abyssal oceans (below 2000-m depth) during the last two decades. Such estimates assume stationary trends deducted as long-term rates. To reassess the deep ocean warming and potentially shed light on its interannual variability, we formulate the balance between Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI), the steric sea level, and the ocean heat content (OHC), at yearly time scales during the 2003–18 period, as a variational problem. The solution is achieved through variational minimization, merging observational data from top-of-atmosphere EEI, inferred from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES), steric sea level estimates from altimetry minus gravimetry, and upper-ocean heat content estimates from in situ platforms (mostly Argo floats). Global ocean reanalyses provide background-error covariances for the OHC analysis. The analysis indicates a 2000-m–bottom warming of 0.08 ± 0.04 W m−2 for the period 2003–18, equal to 13% of the total ocean warming (0.62 ± 0.08 W m−2), slightly larger than previous estimates but consistent within the error bars. The analysis provides a fully consistent optimized solution also for the steric sea level and EEI. Moreover, the simultaneous use of the different heat budget observing networks is able to decrease the analysis uncertainty with respect to the observational one, for all observation types and especially for the 0–700-m OHC and steric sea level (more than 12% reduction). The sensitivity of the analysis to the choice of the background time series proved insignificant. Significance Statement Several observing networks provide complementary information about the temporal evolution of the global energy budget. Here, satellite observations of Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) and steric sea level and in situ–derived estimates of ocean heat content anomalies are combined in a variational analysis framework, with the goal of assessing the deep ocean warming. The optimized solution accounts for the uncertainty of the different observing networks. Furthermore, it provides fully consistent analyses of global ocean heat content, steric sea level, and EEI, which show smaller uncertainty than the original observed time series. The deep ocean (below 2000-m depth) exhibits a significant warming of 0.08 ± 0.04 W m−2 for the period 2003–18, equal to the 13% of the total ocean warming.

Impacts of Climate Change on a Coastal Wetland from Model Simulation Combining Satellite and Gauge Observations: A Case Study of Jiangsu, China

Coastal wetlands are affected by both natural processes and human activities. In the present study, the impacts of natural processes on wetland area variations along the Jiangsu coast in the East China Sea were investigated using a long-term high-resolution numerical model (55 years from 1955 to 2010) validated by satellite and gauge observations. In our 55-year simulation, a 1.33 km2 yr−1 decreasing trend of wetland area as a result of global warming was identified. It was found that the wetland area varied depending on the following temporal scales: intra-seasonal, seasonal, interannual, and decadal. Tides and steric sea level changes are responsible for the intra-seasonal and seasonal wetland variations, respectively. The long-term variations are attributable to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These basin-scale phenomena cause changes in the local wind patterns along the Jiangsu coast and impact the wetland variation on long-term scales.

Decomposing oceanic temperature and salinity change using ocean carbon change

Abstract. As the planet warms due to the accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 in the atmosphere, the interaction of surface ocean carbonate chemistry and the radiative forcing of atmospheric CO2 leads to the global ocean sequestering heat and carbon in a ratio that is nearly constant in time. This ratio has been approximated as globally uniform, enabling the intimately linked patterns of ocean heat and carbon uptake to be derived. Patterns of ocean salinity also change as the Earth system warms due to hydrological cycle intensification and perturbations to air–sea freshwater fluxes. Local temperature and salinity change in the ocean may result from perturbed air–sea fluxes of heat and fresh water (excess temperature, salinity) or from reorganisation of the preindustrial temperature and salinity fields (redistributed temperature, salinity), which are largely due to circulation changes. Here, we present a novel method in which the redistribution of preindustrial carbon is diagnosed and the redistribution of temperature and salinity is estimated using only local spatial information. We demonstrate this technique in the NEMO ocean general circulation model (OGCM) coupled to the MEDUSA-2 biogeochemistry model under an RCP8.5 scenario over 1860–2099. The excess changes (difference between total and redistributed property changes) are thus calculated. We demonstrate that a global ratio between excess heat and temperature is largely appropriate regionally with key regional differences consistent with reduced efficiency in the transport of carbon through the mixed layer base at high latitudes. On centennial timescales, excess heat increases everywhere, with the North Atlantic being a key site of excess heat uptake over the 21st century, accounting for 25 % of the total. Excess salinity meanwhile increases in the Atlantic but is generally negative in other basins, consistent with increasing atmospheric transport of fresh water out of the Atlantic. In the North Atlantic, changes in the inventory of excess salinity are detectable in the late 19th century, whereas increases in the inventory of excess heat do not become significant until the early 21st century. This is consistent with previous studies which find salinification of the subtropical North Atlantic to be an early fingerprint of anthropogenic climate change. Over the full simulation, we also find the imprint of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) slowdown through significant redistribution of heat away from the North Atlantic and of salinity to the South Atlantic. Globally, temperature change at 2000 m is accounted for by both redistributed and excess heat, but for salinity the excess component accounts for the majority of changes at the surface and at depth. This indicates that the circulation variability contributes significantly less to changes in ocean salinity than to heat content. By the end of the simulation excess heat is the largest contribution to density change and steric sea level rise, while excess salinity greatly reduces spatial variability in steric sea level rise through density compensation of excess temperature patterns, particularly in the Atlantic. In the Atlantic, redistribution of the preindustrial heat and salinity fields also produces generally compensating changes in sea level, though this compensation is less clear elsewhere. The regional strength of excess heat and salinity signals grows through the model run in response to the evolving forcing. In addition, the regional strength of the redistributed temperature and salinity signals also grows, indicating increasing circulation variability or systematic circulation change on timescales of at least the model run.

Uncertainty in GRACE/GRACE-follow on global ocean mass change estimates due to mis-modeled glacial isostatic adjustment and geocenter motion

Global mean sea level has increased about 3 mm/yr over several decades due to increases in ocean mass and changes in sea water density. Ocean mass, accounting for about two-thirds of the increase, can be directly measured by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On (GFO) satellites. An independent measure is obtained by combining satellite altimetry (measuring total sea level change) and Argo float data (measuring steric changes associated with sea water density). Many previous studies have reported that the two estimates of global mean ocean mass (GMOM) change are in good agreement within stated confidence intervals. Recently, particularly since 2016, estimates by the two methods have diverged. A partial explanation appears to be a spurious variation in steric sea level data. An additional contributor may be deficiencies in Glacial Isostatic Adjustment (GIA) corrections and degree-1 spherical harmonic (SH) coefficients. We found that erroneous corrections for GIA contaminate GRACE/GFO estimates as time goes forward. Errors in GIA corrections affect degree-1 SH coefficients, and degree-1 errors may also be associated with ocean dynamics. Poor estimates of degree-1 SH coefficients are likely an important source of discrepancies in the two methods of estimating GMOM change.

Simulated sea levels during 1948–2009 in a global ocean-sea ice model for OMIP

This paper assesses the ability of the State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Science and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics of the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (LASG/IAP) Climate System Ocean Model version 3 (LICOM3) to simulate sea levels. For the time series of global changes, most of the global mean steric sea level (SSL) changes were dominated by thermosteric sea level (TSSL) changes in the upper 700 m, with a relatively small contribution from halosteric sea level (HSSL). LICOM3 can reproduce the observed dynamic sea level (DSL) in most regions to reflect the spatial patterns of regional changes. Deviations between LICOM3 and observations were mainly concentrated in the western boundary current and the tropical eastern Pacific. The departure in the western boundary current was primarily related to the model resolution. LICOM3 could not depict DSL changes in the high latitudes where the mesoscale eddies were active. The excessive negative trend in the tropical eastern Pacific was mainly caused by the trend error in the CORE-II forcing products. For the sea level variability, the analysis results of different DSL periods showed that the LICOM3 model could simulate interannual and decadal variability and the satellite altimeter period trend. At least 50 years of data were used to separate the decadal variability and long-term trend. The decadal variability had no significant effect on the 50-year long-term trend change in the DSL in the tropical western Pacific.Analysis of sea level component contributions showed that the changes in global time series, spatial patterns, and sea level variability mainly resulted from the change in TSSL. The TSSL changes in the upper 700 m could roughly reflect the TSSL changes for the whole depth, except for the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. In the Atlantic, the contribution of HSSL was comparable to and compensated by TSSL. When compared with reanalysis, the simulation generated differences in the Southern Ocean and North Atlantic. The linear trend of TSSL simulated by LICOM3 was much stronger than that simulated by reanalysis. The deviation of the Southern Ocean may be related to the CORE-II forcing product. The lack of observations in the Southern Ocean led to the uncertainty of the CORE-II forcing product.

Sea Surface Height Changes due to the Tropical Cyclone-Induced Water Mixing in the Yellow Sea, Korea

Sea surface height changes due to the tropical cyclone (TC)-induced water mixing in the Yellow Sea, Korea, were investigated using temperature and salinity profile data obtained by two Argo floats during the summer and fall of 2018 and 2020. Strong winds and low pressure, which are important characteristics of TCs, caused horizontal and vertical sea surface water movement and induced water mixing. This caused an increase in mixed layer depth, a decrease in water density, and an increase in specific volume. Specific volume changes related to the water steric effect were directly linked to sea surface height changes. During the TC Soulik (1819) period, the thermocline deepened by more than 10 m, and the steric sea level was increased by more than 3 cm. Other TC cases, such as Jebi (1821), Trami (1824), and Kong-Rey (1825), showed sea level increases of 1–2 cm. In 2020, 3 TCs–Bavi (2008), Maysak (2009), and Haishen (2010)—showed minor sea level increases (about 0.5–1 cm) because of weak mixing due to their high moving speeds or weak impacts. As a post-TC impact, the water mixing could cause a rise in sea levels due to the steric effect of seawater.

Multidecadal Sea Level Rise in the Southeast Indian Ocean: The Role of Ocean Salinity Change

AbstractRegional sea level rise in the southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO) exerts growing threats to the surrounding Australian and Indonesian coasts, but the mechanisms of sea level rise have not been firmly established. By analyzing observational datasets and model results, this study investigates multidecadal steric sea level (SSL) rise of the SEIO since the mid-twentieth century, underscoring a significant role of ocean salinity change. The average SSL rising rate from 1960 through 2018 was 7.4 ± 2.4 mm decade−1, and contributions of the halosteric and thermosteric components were ∼42% and ∼58%, respectively. The notable salinity effect arises primarily from a persistent subsurface freshening trend at 400–1000 m. Further insights are gained through the decomposition of temperature and salinity changes into the heaving (vertical displacements of isopycnal surfaces) and spicing (density-compensated temperature and salinity change) modes. The subsurface freshening trend since 1960 is mainly attributed to the spicing mode, reflecting property modifications of the Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) in the southern Indian Ocean. Also noteworthy is a dramatic acceleration of SSL rise (20.3 ± 7.0 mm decade−1) since ∼1990, which was predominantly induced by the thermosteric component (16.3 ± 5.5 mm decade−1) associated with the heaving mode. Enhanced Ekman downwelling by surface winds and radiation forcing linked to global greenhouse gas warming mutually caused the depression of isopycnal surfaces, leading to the accelerated SSL rise through thermosteric effect. This study highlights the complexity of regional sea level rise in a rapidly changing climate, in which the role of ocean salinity is vital and time-varying.

Relative contributions of temperature and salinity to steric sea level over the South China Sea

Relative contributions of temperature and salinity to steric sea level over the South China Sea

Studying Dynamic Ocean Topography in Indonesia Sea Based on Satellite Altimetry

Dynamic Ocean Topography is a part of sea surface variabilities derived from Sea Surface Topography as a time-dependent component. The Dynamic Ocean Topography height in this study was determined using the geodetic method of instantaneous sea level height measurement from satellite altimetry technology. In the territory of Indonesia seas, a picture of the long-wavelength phenomenon from the Dynamic Ocean Topography ranges from 0-2.5 meters with three distribution zones of low, medium, and high value. At the same time, the correlation with the positive value of Steric Sea Level Rise was obtained in almost all parts of Indonesia except for the area in the southern part of Java Island around Longitude 1070E and in the Pacific Ocean region, where that is thought to be caused by the existence of several permanent marine high-frequency physical phenomenon but with an indefinite period which usually acts as a dominant time-independent component of the Sea Surface Topography. The results are expected to be used to study the characteristics of the Indonesian seas for scientific and engineering purposes.

Trends and inter-annual variability of altimetry-based coastal sea level in the Mediterranean Sea: Comparison with tide gauges and models

In the framework of the Coastal sea level project of the ESA Climate Change Initiative, a new coastal sea level product from the Jason-1, 2 and 3 missions over 2002–2018 has been made recently available. This product consists of along-track, high-resolution (20 Hz, i.e., ~350 m) sea level anomalies and coastal sea level trends derived from a complete reprocessing of the Jason altimetry data, including a retracking of the radar waveforms using the ALES (Adaptive Leading Edge Sub-waveform) retracker, in several coastal regions worldwide. In this study, we extend the assessment of this coastal sea level product in the Mediterranean Sea region by comparing with tide gauge data where available. We selected a set of 14 coastal sites where the distance between the Jason track at the coast is less than 30 km from a tide gauge for which the in-situ record at least partly covers the 2002-present time span. In a first part of this study, we compared the interannual variability and trends of the coastal sea level anomalies and of the tide gauge data. A good agreement is found between the altimetry-based sea level time series and the tide gauge data at interannual time scales. In terms of trends, the comparison also shows general good agreement within the respective uncertainties. In a second part of this study, we focus on the Senetosa site (south Corsica) where a significant altimetry-based sea level trend increase is observed in the last 3–4 km to the coast, and investigate which physical process could explain this trend behavior. We analyzed temperature and salinity data of the high-resolution (400 m) MARS3D model, available around Corsica over the January 2014 - December 2019 time span, and computed the steric sea level component and its trend along the Jason track. A clear steric sea level trend increase is found in the last 3–4 km to the coast. Although the MARS3D model does not provide outputs prior to 2014, we suggest that if the steric sea level trend increase found over 2014–2019 is a long-life time feature, it has the right amplitude to explain the altimetry-based coastal sea level trend increase observed at Senetosa.

Distinguishing Between Regression Model Fits to Global Mean Sea Level Reconstructions

AbstractGlobal mean sea level (GMSL) has been rising since the last century, posing a serious challenge for the coastal areas. A variety of regression models have been utilized for determining GMSL rise over the past one hundred years, resulting in a large spread of sea level rise rates and multidecadal variations. In this study, we develop a new nonparametric noise model that is data‐dependent and considers overfitting due to regression. The noise model is used to determine whether one regression model has significantly better skill than others over the period 1900–2010. The choices of background noise and GMSL reconstruction influence whether two sea level models can be statistically distinguished. With our new nonparametric noise spectra, the differences of model skills in explaining sea level variance are significant only in 34% of model comparisons. However, stepwise trends with three inflection points are significantly more skillful than the linear, quadratic, or exponential trend for most GMSL reconstructions, suggesting the importance of multidecadal variability of sea level rise in the twentieth century. Nevertheless, stepwise trend models cannot be distinguished from models with a long‐term harmonic oscillation, indicating that the shape of multidecadal variability is not conclusive. The multidecadal variability is also significant in the steric and barystatic sea level contributions and is related to both natural and anthropogenic forcings. GMSL predictions based on regression fits in the twentieth century underestimate the sea level rise rate over the period 2011–2020 because the sea level acceleration in the recent decade (2011–2020) is not well represented.

Steric and atmospheric contributions to interannual sea level variability in the eastern mediterranean sea over 1993–2019

Sea level trends and their forcing over the eastern Mediterranean basin are investigated by using 27 years (1993–2019) of gridded sea level anomalies (SLA) derived from satellite altimetry and 9 tide gauge stations, along with sea surface temperature (SST) and temperature and salinity profiles. The contributions of atmospheric (wind and pressure) and steric components to the interannual variability of total SLA were evaluated. The thermosteric component represents the major contributor to the linear trend and was positive over most of the eastern Mediterranean, with a spatially averaged trend of 2.13±0.41 mm/year, accounting for 69% of the total sea level trend (3.1±0.61 mm/year). In contrast, the halosteric effect has a negative contribution to the steric SLA, with a mean trend of -0.75±0.19 mm/year. The atmospheric component trend was much lower at 0.32±0.24 mm/year. The interannual variability of SLA accounts for about 36% of overall sea level variability. Steric and atmospheric contributions to the interannual variability of sea level in the eastern Mediterranean account for about 52% and 18%, respectively. The strongest interannual variability and trends in SLA were observed over the basin's main recurrent gyres, with the maximum positive trend obtained over the Mersa–Matruh and Cyprus gyres, as well as the North Shikmona eddy, and maximum negative trend over the Ierapetra gyre. Over the study period, all tide gauges showed a positive and statistically significant trend, ranging from 1.47±0.77 to 5.79±1.32 mm/year after applying glacial isostatic adjustment and atmospheric correction, and were in good agreement with reconstructed steric sea level data.

Contribution of buoyancy fluxes to tropical Pacific sea level variability

Abstract. Regional anomalies of steric sea level are either due to redistribution of heat and freshwater anomalies or due to ocean–atmosphere buoyancy fluxes. Interannual to decadal variability in sea level across the tropical Pacific is mainly due to steric variations driven by wind stress anomalies. The importance of air–sea buoyancy fluxes is less clear. We use a global, eddy-permitting ocean model and a series of sensitivity experiments with quasi-climatological momentum and buoyancy fluxes to identify the contribution of buoyancy fluxes for interannual to decadal sea level variability in the tropical Pacific. We find their contribution on interannual timescales to be strongest in the central tropical Pacific at around a 10∘ latitude in both hemispheres and also relevant in the very east of the tropical domain. Buoyancy-flux-forced anomalies are correlated with variations driven by wind stress changes, but their effect on the prevailing anomalies and the importance of heat and freshwater fluxes vary locally. In the eastern tropical basin, interannual sea level variability is amplified by anomalous heat fluxes, while the importance of freshwater fluxes is small, and neither has any impact on decadal timescales. In the western tropical Pacific, the variability on interannual and decadal timescales is dampened by both heat and freshwater fluxes. The mechanism involves westward-propagating Rossby waves that are triggered during El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events by anomalous buoyancy fluxes in the central tropical Pacific and counteract the prevailing sea level anomalies once they reach the western part of the basin.