Impacts of Climate Change on a Coastal Wetland from Model Simulation Combining Satellite and Gauge Observations: A Case Study of Jiangsu, China

Abstract

Coastal wetlands are affected by both natural processes and human activities. In the present study, the impacts of natural processes on wetland area variations along the Jiangsu coast in the East China Sea were investigated using a long-term high-resolution numerical model (55 years from 1955 to 2010) validated by satellite and gauge observations. In our 55-year simulation, a 1.33 km2 yr−1 decreasing trend of wetland area as a result of global warming was identified. It was found that the wetland area varied depending on the following temporal scales: intra-seasonal, seasonal, interannual, and decadal. Tides and steric sea level changes are responsible for the intra-seasonal and seasonal wetland variations, respectively. The long-term variations are attributable to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. These basin-scale phenomena cause changes in the local wind patterns along the Jiangsu coast and impact the wetland variation on long-term scales.