Status Quo Power Research Articles

The return of Prometheus. Dominant powers and the management of careful revisionists

AbstractAfter defeating the 20th-century challengers to the international order, the United States must today calibrate its response to the rise of the PRC, whose foreign policy poses problems both for policy-makers and IR scholars. Wilhelmine and Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan and USSR have left a heavy mark on the scholarship on revisionist threats and their management. Like the mythological Titans, these states launched their challenge all the way to ‘Olympus’: they longed to build a new international order by war or a large-scale and long-standing competition. However, the myth of Prometheus teaches us that this ‘revolutionary’ path is not the only road for secondary states to gain primacy. Revisionism can also take a more careful shape, both by means and objectives. The article preliminarily discusses the understudied type of careful revisionism and distinguishes the subtypes of ‘incrementals’, ‘moderates’ and ‘gamblers’. These more nuanced forms compel status quo power(s) to face a dilemma between two strategic options: engagement or confrontation. Then it posits that a wisely gauged assessment of the careful revisionist challenge by the dominant power must inevitably lay at the basis of any grand strategy for preserving the status quo and preventing systemic change. Finally, it tests this hypothesis by investigating the confrontation between a dominant power – the United Kingdom – and six careful revisionists – namely the United States (1814–1860), the Kingdom of Sardinia/Italy (1852–1882), France (1875–1904), Russian Empire (1864–1907), Imperial Japan (1919–1936) and Fascist Italy (1922–1935).

So Similar, Yet So Different: Russia and Turkey in the Western Balkans – The Case of Serbia

In recent years, Russia and Turkey have been among non-Western powers that have been more assertive in their foreign policies in the Western Balkans. Naturally, this creates the need to identify the key similarities and differences between these two geopolitical players. By using the case of Serbia, the pivotal country of the Western Balkans and a country whose foreign policy was largely influenced by the idea of hedging and engaging non-Western players, one can determine key similarities and differences between these two powers. This paper states two major similarities between these two powers and one major difference. The first similarity is that both Russia and Turkey are acting based on the same permissive environment of a regional power vacuum, the environment in which the EU’s leverage has decreased and in which countries like Serbia feel emboldened to hedge their bets and diversify partnerships. The second similarity is that although the popular explanation is to stress to powers’ ethnic and religious ties with the Balkans, Slavic and Orthodox ties in case of Russia and Islam in case of Turkey, or even as the continuation of old imperial traditions, the two countries are guided by strategic pragmatism. The difference between the two powers is that Russia can be defined as a status quo power as it aims to act as a spoiler perpetuating the current state of political dysfunctions; Turkey is not a status quo player as it does not oppose the region’s membership in Western institutions as long as its interests are respected.

Hard borders and soft agreements: evaluating governance within the Global Compact for Migration

Welcomed as a milestone in the governance of transnational migration, the adoption of the Global Compact for Safe, Orderly, and Regular Migration marked a significant step forward in international cooperation on migration governance. Through a critical evaluation of its normative and structural features, this paper evaluates the strengths, weaknesses, tensions and contradictions within the compact. It finds that the compact is marked by innovative and ambitious objectives and gives recognition to the diversity and complexity of migration practices. However, its amplification of state sovereignty, its perpetuation of classical liberal statist ideals, and its ambiguity concerning the social-structural and institutional conditions necessary to protect migrants’ rights and interests risk undermining its implementation and effectiveness. The paper argues that this framework is best understood as a progressive neoliberal model that relies on the virtue of states over legal and justice-based institutional mechanisms for its authority and implementation. This model risks reinforcing status quo power relations and is insufficient to achieve its stated objectives.

Soviet Russia/the USSR and transformation of the international relations system in the first half of the 1920s

The paper examines the formation of the Soviet state and its place within the European international relations system in the first half of the 1920s both in the context of new principles of interstate interaction, the character of economic relations between countries, and geopolitical transformations triggered by the First World War. The first section covers the political and ideological aspects of relations between Soviet Russia/the USSR and Western countries. The author shows that, despite the prominence of ideological conflict in the development of the IR system that emerged after the First World War, continuous tensions both between the defeated and the victors and among the latter urged the political and military elites of Western states to consider the Soviet Russia as a situational partner even under the Bolsheviks rule. The difference in the assessments of the ideological conflict with Soviet Russia, and then with the USSR by Western statesmen stemmed from the difference in their assessments of the prospects for the evolution of the Soviet regime, as well as of the commitment of the Soviet leaders to the idea of the world revolution. The second section of the paper focuses on the role that was assigned to the Soviet state in various plans for the European economy reconstruction after the First World War. While the largest European states, Great Britain and Germany in particular, were interested in involving the Soviet state in the system of trade and economic relations (to get access to its resources in order to restore their own economies, and to open up the prospect of transforming the Soviet system towards capitalism), the Soviet leaders considered access to the European market as a necessary condition for the industrialization which was seen as the key to survival of the first socialist state in a hostile capitalist environment. In this regard the author notes that although Soviet Russia advocated for the revolutionary transformation of the entire IR system, she was unable to enforce it and eventually turned into a status quo power. However, the awareness of hostility by the Western world and the desire to preserve its unique socio-economic order, kept Moscow from attempts to integrate deeply into the Versailles system. In turn, the Western leaders, for all the differences in their approaches towards the Eastern European region and despite de facto recognition of the USSR demonstrated the growing alienation towards the Soviet regime as they became disillusioned with the prospects for its possible transition. This inability to predict the future development of the USSR, as well as to control the situation in Eastern Europe in general were among the factors that instigated the leading European power — Great Britain — to devise a scheme of the European security system without the USSR, which was embodied in the Locarno agreements of 1925.

Soviet Russia/the USSR and transformation of the international relations system in the first half of the 1920s

The paper examines the formation of the Soviet state and its place within the European international relations system in the first half of the 1920s both in the context of new principles of interstate interaction, the character of economic relations between countries, and geopolitical transformations triggered by the First World War. The first section covers the political and ideological aspects of relations between Soviet Russia/the USSR and Western countries. The author shows that, despite the prominence of ideological conflict in the development of the IR system that emerged after the First World War, continuous tensions both between the defeated and the victors and among the latter urged the political and military elites of Western states to consider the Soviet Russia as a situational partner even under the Bolsheviks rule. The difference in the assessments of the ideological conflict with Soviet Russia, and then with the USSR by Western statesmen stemmed from the difference in their assessments of the prospects for the evolution of the Soviet regime, as well as of the commitment of the Soviet leaders to the idea of the world revolution. The second section of the paper focuses on the role that was assigned to the Soviet state in various plans for the European economy reconstruction after the First World War. While the largest European states, Great Britain and Germany in particular, were interested in involving the Soviet state in the system of trade and economic relations (to get access to its resources in order to restore their own economies, and to open up the prospect of transforming the Soviet system towards capitalism), the Soviet leaders considered access to the European market as a necessary condition for the industrialization which was seen as the key to survival of the first socialist state in a hostile capitalist environment. In this regard the author notes that although Soviet Russia advocated for the revolutionary transformation of the entire IR system, she was unable to enforce it and eventually turned into a status quo power. However, the awareness of hostility by the Western world and the desire to preserve its unique socio-economic order, kept Moscow from attempts to integrate deeply into the Versailles system. In turn, the Western leaders, for all the differences in their approaches towards the Eastern European region and despite de facto recognition of the USSR demonstrated the growing alienation towards the Soviet regime as they became disillusioned with the prospects for its possible transition. This inability to predict the future development of the USSR, as well as to control the situation in Eastern Europe in general were among the factors that instigated the leading European power — Great Britain — to devise a scheme of the European security system without the USSR, which was embodied in the Locarno agreements of 1925.

Indonesia's Great-Power Management in the Indo-Pacific: The Balancing Behavior of a "Dove State"

executive summary: This essay investigates Indonesia's strategic thinking toward the Indo-Pacific region amid changing great-power politics and examines both the principal drivers shaping Indonesia's strategic choices and the challenges facing Indonesian diplomacy in the region. main argument The Indo-Pacific region, born out of the great powers' efforts to forge new strategic alignments and reset the balance of power in Asia, is headed for a multi-tiered polarization that provides a challenging geostrategic context for Indonesia in the coming years. The U.S. and China form the two poles shaping the global and regional balance of power. Indonesia no longer holds a positive view toward the U.S.-China relationship in the Indo-Pacific region, and this gloomy view has prompted Jakarta to craft a foreign policy that mirrors what some experts refer to as "dove state" behavior. As a dove state, Indonesia has sought to balance its interests while navigating the uncertainties of the great-power rivalry. However, the strength of Indonesian diplomacy is likely to depend on the country's ability to walk a middle path as well as its ability to both keep ASEAN together and position the grouping as a credible regional architecture. policy implications • Indonesia is a status-quo power and is likely to oppose any policy initiative that amplifies the risk of great-power conflict or instability in the region. • As a developing country, a populist democracy, and an emerging market, Indonesia will respond proactively and positively to overtures that advance the country's economic development. • Great-power bellicosity and a weakened ASEAN may push Indonesia to be more insular and concentrate on partnerships that support Jakarta's development agenda.

Analyzing United States Pivot to Asia and China’s Global Rebalancing through Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)

This research focuses on ‘pivot to Asia’ and ‘Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as two competing paradigms defining the great power relations in the evolving regional and global order. The article is based on the premise that a dialectic relationship exists between the United States and China, manifested through the pivot to Asia and global rebalancing by China. The paper investigates the contours of both strategies using the theoretical framework of hegemonic stability theory to provide empirical answers to the assertive behavior of the United States as the status-quo power and China as the rising power. The central argument of the paper revolves around the renewed United States' strategic focus in the Indo-Pacific, which is creating perceptions of containment in China. In doing so, the article investigates the evolving power dynamics and role of the United States in shaping the strategies and alliances among the regional actors and Chinese counterbalance strategies through economic incentives and developmental projects such as BRI. The research is an original contribution to unveiling the saga of the United States pivot to Asia and counterbalance by China for enhancing their spheres of influence in maintaining hegemony.

Germany as the European Union’s status quo power? Continuity and change in the shadow of the Covid-19 pandemic

ABSTRACT In July 2020 the European Council adopted the new multiannual financial framework (MFF) and the additional European recovery budget ‘Next Generation EU’ (NGEU). Certainly, this agreement marked a clear change in German European policy. Germany was not only prepared to pay significantly higher contributions to the EU budget, but also accepted to launch an additional European economic stimulus programme that will be financed through European common debt. However, Germany insisted on significant constraints and substantive limitations in scope of these new instruments. This restrictive, hesitant and rather defensive policy of prevention can be explained by Germany’s role as status quo-power (SQP) in the European Union (EU). This role implies that Germany is trying to preserve the existing status quo, the agreed structures and rules, and is only prepared to agree to far-reaching changes if this status quo or even the existence of the EU itself appear to be at risk.

From Critical Race Theory to the January 6th Insurrection Speech: The High School Classroom and the Politics of Division

In the spring of 2021, conservative pundits and politicians renewed a decades-old attack on Critical Race Theory (CRT). Per usual, the attack intentionally misrepresented the nature and impact of CRT with the goal of derailing efforts to address systemic racial inequality. This push to maintain the status quo power structure is echoed in former President Trump’s January 6th speech urging his supporters to forcefully overturn the 2020 presidential election. In both cases, the politics of division and purposefully used misinformation are key tools. The high school classroom highlights these tools’ use. It is both a proxy space where larger social issues are focused and an actual space in which students are prepared to counter the pernicious effects of stoked division and misinformation. Based on experiences in a public high school’s 11th-grade World Literature class, this article explores how engagement with topical issues can equip students to recognize the politics of division and to be analytical and engaged citizens.

THE TESTING OF WASHINGTON SYSTEM WITH JAPANESE INITIATIVES AND THE FAILURE OF DETERRENCE IN EAST ASIA

The study aims to assess the Japanese challenge to the status quo established with the “Washington System” during the interwar period under the American leadership from the perspective of deterrence. Deterrence is based on cost/benefit calculations. When the cost of challenging the status quo is greater than the potential benefit, the challenger prefers to maintain the status quo. At this point, satisfaction with the status-quo and credibility are two determining factors of deterrence success and sustainability of the status quo. The changes in power asymmetry in East Asian regional order since the second half of 19 th century caused the fall of the Chinese Empire, the rise of Japan, and the opening of the regional states to Western-style international relations. However, the Washington system established under the US leadership after World War I (WWI) created a dissatisfied Japan with the status-quo in the region. As its capabilities increased, Japan began to take challenging initiatives shaking the Washington System. Due to the isolationist policy of the US after the WWI, US’ responses toward Japanese aggression were minimal and shied away. Thus, it made the US in the eyes of Japan as a status-quo power having retaliatory capacity but not the intention. This study shows that the main reasons for the deterrence failure on the road to the Pearl Harbor attack were the dissatisfaction of Japan with the status-quo and Japan’s misperception of American credibility. As a result, the war became a more beneficial option in Japan’s eyes despite its unacceptable costs, and deterrence failed.

China’s Revisionism and Cessation of the Doklam Impasse

In the light of the Chinese and Indian perspectives on the cessation of the Doklam impasse, the present article analyses China’s role and status in international politics. The Chinese perspective described China as a status quo power and never accepted Doklam as a disputed territory. While accusing India of aggression on Chinese territory, it portrayed China as a “responsible power” that ensured the cessation of the Doklam impasse with India through multiple diplomatic and military measures. Opposite to this, the Indian perspective viewed China as a revisionist power and termed the PLA’s activities in Doklam as a source of consternation for its national security. From the Indian perspective, China’s declining growth rate, increasing internal conflicts, the potential threat to its peaceful image, its apprehension regarding the BRI’s derailment, the Korean crisis, the strategically advantageous position of the Indian military in Doklam and New Delhi’s strategic relevance for Beijing in promoting its new economic and political groupings forced China to resolve the standoff peacefully.

China’s Revisionism and Cessation of the Doklam Impasse

In the light of the Chinese and Indian perspectives on the cessation of theDoklam impasse, the present article analyses China’s role and status ininternational politics. The Chinese perspective described China as a statusquo power and never accepted Doklam as a disputed territory. Whileaccusing India of aggression on Chinese territory, it portrayed China as a“responsible power” that ensured the cessation of the Doklam impasse withIndia through multiple diplomatic and military measures. Opposite to this,the Indian perspective viewed China as a revisionist power and termed thePLA’s activities in Doklam as a source of consternation for its nationalsecurity. From the Indian perspective, China’s declining growth rate,increasing internal conflicts, the potential threat to its peaceful image, itsapprehension regarding the BRI’s derailment, the Korean crisis, thestrategically advantageous position of the Indian military in Doklam andNew Delhi’s strategic relevance for Beijing in promoting its new economicand political groupings forced China to resolve the standoff peacefully.

Yugoslavia's Liberal Opportunity: British Foreign Policy and the ‘Croatian Spring’, 1968–1974

Between 1968 and 1971, Yugoslavia experienced a prolonged series of protests dubbed the ‘Croatian Spring’. Britain was initially concerned that the Soviets would invade Yugoslavia, thereby upsetting the region's geopolitical balance. Protest against Tito's regime had liberal, Marxist and nationalist elements and, although some sympathy in Britain existed with the former in 1968, this gradually changed to fear of separatism, particularly as it was conflated with the memory of the fascist Ustaše regime. That these factors were aligned, however, impeded one of Britain's prime objectives, Yugoslav unity. British foreign policy towards Yugoslavia during this period aptly shows how it acted as a status quo power.

Too Important to Be Left to the Admirals: The Need to Study Maritime Great-Power Competition

For the first time since World War II the most likely friction points between a rising, potentially revisionist power and a declining, largely status-quo power are located at sea. This special issue accordingly seeks to set an appropriate agenda for security studies research. It presents six interconnected articles exploring different dimensions of maritime competition, largely between China and the United States. Between them, the articles employ three important approaches to security studies: quantitative analysis, pairing classic international relations theory with qualitative evidence, and operational-level research. Together, they consider different geographies—competition and conflict in the Western Pacific versus in the greater Middle East; different issue areas such contending legal claims and control over sea lines of communication; and, finally, different uses of naval power—including blockades, naval diplomacy, fleet engagements, and nuclear escalation. Combined, the issue encourages applying the many classic approaches of security studies to this high-stakes relationship while considering maritime conflict as distinct from other forms, such as land and nuclear, that have traditionally occupied the field.

Performing Society: Pursuing Creativity and Criticality in Secondary ELA

As an English Language Arts teacher, I have experienced cost-effective approaches replacing the actual “arts” of ELA (Trend, 1992). This article explores how Surrealist-oriented pedagogies could restore imaginative freedom and deconstruct conceptual barriers (normative standards, curricular constraints, and status quo power relations) in secondary ELA. I will also examine how we can use Surrealism as a political and pedagogical model to treat societal problems mirrored in ELA classrooms. Surrealist-oriented pedagogies could enable students to experiment with social issues and develop senses of agency and voice that reflect awareness of contemporary society while simultaneously building their ELA skills.

Intersectionality Research for Transgender Health Justice: A Theory-Driven Conceptual Framework for Structural Analysis of Transgender Health Inequities.

Transgender people experience intersecting forms of social marginalization and are disproportionately affected by health inequities. We elucidate a novel conceptual framework for transgender health research that theorizes the constructs and pathways through which social inequities produce health inequities for transgender populations. Drawing on theories of intersectionality and structural injustice, Intersectionality Research for Transgender Health Justice (IRTHJ) posits that social and health inequities affecting transgender populations are the result of status quo power relations produced within and between oppressive structures, institutional systems, and socio-structural processes. The IRTHJ framework delineates three main actions for improving transgender health research: (i) name intersecting power relations, (ii) disrupt the status quo, and (iii) center embodied knowledge. The authors show how IRTHJ provides tools for researchers to transform the design, implementation, and interpretation of transgender health research, and they discuss implications for programs, policy, and action for transgender health justice.

State transformation and China’s engagement in global governance: the case of nuclear technologies

Debates over the implications of China’s rise for global governance have reached an impasse, since evidence exists to support both ‘revisionist’ and ‘status-quo’ intentions. This means that neither is strictly falsifiable and hence the debate, as currently structured, is irresolvable. However, contradictions are explicable if we recognise that China is not a unitary state. Since the beginning of the reform era, its international engagements have been shaped by the uneven transformation – fragmentation, decentralisation and internationalisation – of state apparatuses. Contradictory international actions thus may reflect not top-down strategic direction, but conflicts, disagreements and coordination problems within China’s transformed party-state. Our state transformation approach directs us away from evaluating China’s approach to global governance in toto – whether it is overall a revisionist or status quo power – towards a detailed analysis of particular policy domains. This is because in each issue-area we find different constellations of actors and interests, and varying degrees of party-state transformation. We demonstrate the centrality of state transformation analysis for explaining the co-existence of revisionist and status quo behaviours through the apparently hard test case of nuclear technologies. Even in this ‘high politics’ domain, state transformation dynamics help explain China’s inconsistent international behaviours.

Market Power and Marketisation: Japan and China's Impact on the Iron Ore Market, 50 Years Apart

ABSTRACTHow can we explain the marketisation of the iron ore market following the emergence of China, whereas the same market had seen change in the opposite direction following the emergence of Japan, 50 years earlier? I argue that relative coordination capacity – or relative market power – between domestic and international stakeholders explains market change at the global level. Via the study of Japan and China's impact on the iron ore pricing and shipping regimes, I show that China's rise led to the marketisation (liberalisation and financialisation) of the iron ore market pricing regime, and the demarketisation of the shipping regime, whereas Japan's rise led to demarketisation in both cases. This article's argument illustrates that China's impact is not equal across markets, contrary to characterisations of China as either a revisionist or status quo power. Second, it argues that China has caused the marketisation of the iron ore pricing regime, which is contrary to expectations on both sides of the debate on China's rise: China was unable to dictate outcomes via a strong state, nor did it seamlessly integrate the global economy. Third, it illustrates the importance of resonance dynamics at the interface of domestic and global market institutions.

China’s Rise: Offensive or Defensive Realism

China’s rise has been the greatest development of the 21st century. It has emerged as the second largest economy in the world, a country with a modern army and nuclear weapons. China’s rise has come to be seen as a major threat by the West and especially the US. Most scholarly debates predict that it will lead to a conflict between China and the US. Set in this context, this paper takes John Mearsheimer’s theory of offensive realism, which predicts intense competition and conflict between China and the US and examines China’s behaviour as a rising power against it. The paper finds that far from being an aggressive, hegemonic and a revisionist state, China is a status quo power that aims to preserve its position in the international system rather than upset it. The paper argues that China’s behaviour displays elements of defensive rather than offensive realism.

중국의 한국전 참전 결정을 통해 본 현 중국 정부의 한반도 전략 평가 비교 연구

China had participate in korea war 20C cold-war era. At that time The most important reason to decide participate in Korea war is for the security of china as status-quo power. But nowadays China growing up new great power as a challenge U,S,A super power. In this article intend to analysis and compare the china’s evaluation change of korea peninsula’s strategy value according to the china is become to new great power in international regime. This analysis show us P.R.C still regard Korea peninsula as a one of the china’s core earning and the first place of china could show as a growing peaceful new great power.