Introduction After its rise, will China display restrained or self-interest maximizing behaviour toward its neighbours? This question is at heart of propaganda line that was espoused by Chinese leadership from 2003 until mid-2004: theory of China's (helping jueqi). The government, anxious that smaller states on its periphery will react negatively to growing Chinese economic and military power, built a new line out of old themes, stressing that China's rise will not turn it into an aggressive hegemon who uses its power strictly to maximize its own interests. Instead, all nations will benefit in win-win situation created by Middle Kingdom's new power. While actual term appears to have been shelved, basic themes it encompasses have not: China continues to portray itself as a status quo power whose increasing stature will not negatively affect those around it. Nor does apparent disappearance of term itself diminish importance of analytical question: namely, how will China act towards its neighbours as it gains more power? This article asks: how can we know whether Chinese protestations of its are more than just empty words? How can we know whether China will help its neighbours, or is actually a wolf in sheep's clothing, luring its neighbours into complacency or working them into relationships in which China is principal beneficiary (playing possum, in words of one China expert)? This article suggests a framework for evaluating Chinese behaviour. Clearly, there is a need to look not only at Chinese words, but also at their actions. But which actions? This essay argues that some issue areas will prove more illuminating about future Chinese behaviour than others. After laying out framework, it focuses on one under-studied issue in China's multilateral relationship with ASEAN countries: agreements (or lack thereof) to manage Mekong's water resources. China's relationship with Southeast Asia is chosen principally because some analysts have asserted that China's new multilateral diplomacy and charm offensive (see Medeiros and Fravel 2003; Beeson 2003; Stubbs 2002) are succeeding in drawing Southeast Asia into a proto-Chinese sphere of influence. Therefore, purpose of this article is to lay out a framework for assessing Chinese actions as well as to call attention to an important issue often below radar of Western experts on Asian security. The Theory of Peaceful Rise From 2003-2004, Chinese government officials, academics, and press promoted a new propaganda term: China's rise. The theory was formulated explicitly to reassure countries, particularly smaller ones on its periphery, that China's increasing economic and military power will not pose a threat to them. Zheng Bijian, dean of influential Central Party School, agreed with an interviewer's assessment that the concept of a 'peaceful rise' initiated by China has forcefully addresses [sic] 'the China threat theory' and 'China collapse theory' and also allows China's neighbouring countries and various countries in world to feel more relief. (1) While term itself is apparently no longer in vogue, basic ideas it encompasses continue to reflect image China wants to project to its neighbours. Indeed, theory itself was not particularly new, but rather a slightly extended version of Deng Xiaoping's and line, The theory has three key points. The first point amounts to not much more than a restatement of standard and line. Zheng Bijian writes that China is both striving for a peaceful international environment in which to develop ... and also to safeguard world peace through China's development. (2) The key problems China faces are domestic, and answer to these problems is development of economy. …
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