Canadian Stations Research Articles

Data‐based analysis of bivariate copula tail dependence for drought duration and severity

AbstractIn recent decades, copula functions have been applied in bivariate drought duration and severity frequency analysis. Among several potential copulas, Clayton has been mostly used in drought analysis. In this research, we studied the influence of the tail shape of various copula functions (i.e. Gumbel, Frank, Clayton and Gaussian) on drought bivariate frequency analysis. The appropriateness of Clayton copula for the characterization of drought characteristics is also investigated. Drought data are extracted from standardized precipitation index time series for four stations in Canada (La Tuque and Grande Prairie) and Iran (Anzali and Zahedan). Both duration and severity data sets are positively skewed. Different marginal distributions were first fitted to drought duration and severity data. The gamma and exponential distributions were selected for drought duration and severity, respectively, according to the positive skewness and Kolmogorov–Smirnov test. The results of copula modelling show that the Clayton copula function is not an appropriate choice for the used data sets in the current study and does not give more drought risk information than an independent model for which the duration and severity dependence is not significant. The reason is that the dependence of two variables in the upper tail of Clayton copula is very weak and similar to the independent case, whereas the observed data in the transformed domain of cumulative density function show high association in the upper tail. Instead, the Frank and Gumbel copula functions show better performance than Clayton function for drought bivariate frequency analysis. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Stationarity of AMAX series of short-duration rainfall for long-term Canadian stations: detection of jumps and trends

Short-duration rainfall data are key inputs for design of stormwater infrastructure. To address concerns raised regarding the validity of relations based on these data, 13 Canadian climate stations were selected: one station for each province and territory, having a “long” record length (27 to 63 years), minimal missing years and potential significance for urban infrastructure design. For each station, a state-of-practice time series analysis was completed for the nine intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) durations (5 min – 24 h) to identify non-stationarities in the form of trends or jumps. Approximately, 30% of the time series showed statistically significant trends or jumps. Data sets not satisfying the stationarity criterion should be critically reviewed before computed quantiles are applied for design. Arbitrary split sample analysis was investigated as an alternative method for identifying non-stationarities and was found to be an unreliable indicator of significant changes.

Impact of Aligning Climatological Day on Gridding Daily Maximum–Minimum Temperature and Precipitation over Canada

AbstractOn 1 July 1961, the climatological day was redefined to end at 0600 UTC at all principal climate stations in Canada. Prior to that, the climatological day at principal stations ended at 1200 UTC for maximum temperature and precipitation and 0000 UTC for minimum temperature and was similar to the climatological day at ordinary stations. Hutchinson et al. reported occasional larger-than-expected residuals at 50 withheld stations when the Australian National University Spline (ANUSPLIN) interpolation scheme was applied to daily data for 1961–2003, and it was suggested that these larger residuals were in part due to the existence of different climatological days. In this study, daily minimum and maximum temperatures at principal stations were estimated using hourly temperatures for the same climatological day as local ordinary climate stations for the period 1953–2007. Daily precipitation was estimated at principal stations using synoptic precipitation data for the climatological day ending at 1200 UTC, which, for much of the country, was close to the time of the morning observation at ordinary climate stations. At withheld principal stations, the climatological-day adjustments led to the virtual elimination of large residuals in maximum and minimum temperature and a marked reduction in precipitation residuals. Across all 50 withheld stations the climatological day adjustments led to significant reductions, by around 12% for daily maximum temperature, 15% for daily minimum temperature, and 22% for precipitation, in the residuals reported by Hutchinson et al.

Review of Survey activities 2010

This Review of Survey activities presents a selection of 19 papers reflecting the wide spectrum of activities of the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland, from the microscopic to the plate-tectonic level. The Survey's activities in Denmark and surrounding areas are illustrated by 12 articles covering petroleum geology, groundwater geology, applied marine geology, Quaternary stratigraphy, sea-level changes, disposal of radioactive waste and the use of satellite radar data to detect elevation changes. The depth of two earthquakes has been determined using data from array stations in Canada and Niger. Activities in Greenland are covered by six papers dealing with mineral and petroleum exploration. One paper comes with further evidence that the controversial Wegener Fault is a myth. The influence of recent climate change on the Greenland ice sheet is the subject of another article; 2010 was the warmest year ever recorded in Greenland, and the ice sheet is losing mass at an accelerating rate. The Survey's international activities are the subject of a paper dealing with quality control of geophysical data in Ghana.

Observed travel times for Multiply-reflected ScS waves from a deep-focus earthquake

Tlie deep-focus Argentinean earthquake of December 81962, generated multiply reflected ScS phases which were recorded veryclearly at stations of the IGY and the TJSC&GS standardized worldwidenetworks and at Canadian stations. The data gathered from this earthquakefor the multiply-reflected ScS and sScS were used to construct thetravel times and to extend them to shorter epicentral distances. Thesenew data brought to light an error in published travel times for the 2(ScS)phase.

Validation of Spectral and Broadband UV-B (290 - 325 nm) Irradiance for Canada

Stratospheric ozone depletion, as a result of increasing chlorofluorocarbons in the stratosphere, allows more UV-B irradiance (290 - 325 nm) to reach the earth’s surface with possible detrimental biological effects. Be-cause there are few UV-B radiation stations, irradiance models are useful tools for estimating irradiances where measurements are not made. Estimates of spectral and broadband irradiances from a numerical model are compared with Brewer spectrophotometer measurements at nine Canadian stations (Alert, Resolute Bay, Churchill, Edmonton, Regina, Winnipeg, Montreal, Halifax and Toronto) and 26 years of data. The model uses either the discrete ordinate radiative transfer (DISORT) or the delta-Eddington algorithms to solve the radiative transfer equation for a 49-layer, vertically inhomogeneous, plane-parallel atmosphere, with cloud inserted between the 2 and 3 km heights. Spectral calculations are made at 1 nm intervals. The model uses extraterrestrial spectral irradiance, spectral optical properties for each atmospheric layer for ozone, air mole-cules, and aerosol and surface albedo. A fixed broadband cloud optical depth of 27 was satisfactory for cal-culating cloudy sky irradiances at all stations except in the arctic. Comparisons are made both for daily totals and for monthly averaged spectral and broadband irradiances. The delta-Eddington method is shown to be unsuitable for calculating spectral irradiances under clear skies, at wavelengths less than 305 nm where absorption by ozone is high, and at large solar zenith angles. The er-rors are smaller for overcast conditions. The method is adequate for daily total and monthly averaged spec-tral (? 305 nm) and broadband calculations for all sky conditions, although consistently overestimating ir-radiances. There is a good agreement between broadband measurements and calculations for both daily totals and monthly averages with mean bias error mainly less than 5% of the mean measured daily irradiance and root mean square error less than 25%, decreasing to below 15% for monthly averages.

Comparison of UV-B Broadband Brewer Measurements with Irradiances from Surface-Based and Satellite-Based Models

UV-B irradiance can be estimated from surface meteorological data or from satellite measurements. This paper compares irradiance estimates from the Davies surface-based radiation model and the Canada Centre for Remote Sensing (CCRS) satellite model with Brewer spectrophotometer measurements for all sky conditions at six Canadian stations (Edmonton, Regina, Winnipeg, Montreal, Halifax and Toronto). The Davies model is applied with both the discrete ordinate radiative transfer (DISORT) and the delta-Eddington algorithms to solve the radiative transfer equation. Both models’ estimates are compared with instantaneous Brewer measurements. Both perform similarly with mean bias errors within 6% of the mean measured irradiance for the measurement period and root mean square errors between 25% and 30%.

Derivation of an adjustment factor map for the estimation of the water equivalent of snowfall from ruler measurements in Canada

This paper provides an updated fresh snowfall water equivalent adjustment factor (ρswe) map for Canada to allow the estimation of solid precipitation amount from ruler measurements of the depth of freshly fallen snow, which has been the standard method for measuring snowfall since Canadian climate measurements began in the middle of the nineteenth century. The ρswe map is created based on the comparison of corrected solid Nipher gauge precipitation to snowfall ruler depth measurements at 175 stations with more than 20 years of concurrent observations. The Nipher gauge correction process involved a careful analysis of station metadata to obtain precise information on anemometer heights and the dates that Nipher gauges were activated. The updated fresh snowfall water equivalent adjustment factor map allows estimates of ρswe to be obtained for all long‐term climate stations in Canada. The spatial pattern is consistent with processes influencing the density of fresh snowfall and its initial settling with values ranging from more than 1.5 over the Maritimes to less than 0.8 over southern‐ central British Columbia.

A thermodynamic model for estimating sea and lake ice thickness with optical satellite data

Sea ice is a very important indicator and an effective modulator of regional and global climate change. Current remote sensing techniques provide an unprecedented opportunity to monitor the cryosphere routinely with relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions. In this paper, we introduce a thermodynamic model to estimate sea and lake ice thickness with optical (visible, near‐infrared, and infrared) satellite data. Comparisons of nighttime ice thickness retrievals to ice thickness measurements from upward looking submarine sonar show that this thermodynamic model is capable of retrieving ice thickness up to 2.8 m. The mean absolute error is 0.18 m for samples with a mean ice thickness of 1.62 m, i.e., an 11% mean absolute error. Comparisons with in situ Canadian stations and moored upward looking sonar measurements show similar results. Sensitivity studies indicate that the largest errors come from uncertainties in surface albedo and downward solar radiation flux estimates from satellite data, followed by uncertainties in snow depth and cloud fractional coverage. Due to the relatively large uncertainties in current satellite retrievals of surface albedo and surface downward shortwave radiation flux, the current model is not recommended for use with daytime data. For nighttime data, the model is capable of resolving regional and seasonal variations in ice thickness and is useful for climatological analysis.

Impact of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on Wintertime Precipitation in Canada

Abstract Based on the adjusted daily total precipitation data at Canadian stations and the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) data during the most recent 30 Northern Hemisphere winters, the connection between the tropical convection of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the intraseasonal variability of precipitation in Canada is investigated. The dominant convection patterns associated with the MJO are represented by the two leading modes of the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis that is applied to the pentad outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in the equatorial Indian Ocean and western Pacific. The first EOF mode is characterized by a single convection center near the Maritime Continent, whereas the second EOF has an east–west dipole structure with enhanced precipitation over the Indian Ocean and reduced convective activity over the tropical western Pacific. Lagged regression analysis reveals significant precipitation anomalies in Canada associated with the tropical convection of the MJO. Above-normal precipitation starts to occur in the west coast of Canada one pentad after a positive EOF2 phase. In the next two pentads, positive precipitation anomalies extend to a large area of south Canada. At the same time, the northeast region experiences reduced precipitation. For strong MJO events when the principal component of EOF2 exceeds its standard deviation, the precipitation anomaly in the west coast of Canada can reach about 20%–30% of its standard deviation of pentad-to-pentad variability. A linearized global primitive equation model is utilized to assess the cause of the intraseasonal variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics and its influence on North American weather associated with the tropical heating of the MJO.

Long range transport of mercury to the Arctic and across Canada

Abstract. This study is the most extensive study to date on the transport of mercury to the Arctic. Moreover, it is the first such study to use a fully-coupled, online chemical transport model, Environment Canada's Global/Regional Atmospheric Heavy Metals model (GRAHM), where the meteorology and mercury processes are fully integrated. It is also the only study to date on the transport of mercury across Canada. We estimated source attribution from Asia, North America, Russia and Europe at six arctic verification stations, as well as three subarctic and eight midlatitude Canadian stations. We have found that Asia, despite having transport efficiencies that were almost always lower than those of North America and often lower than those of Russia, was the dominant source of gaseous atmospheric mercury at all verification stations: it contributed the most mercury (29–37% at all stations, seasons and levels considered), its concentrations frequently explained nearly 100% of the variability in the concentrations produced by the simulation performed with full global emissions, particularly in the absence of local sources, and it generated the most long range transport (LRT) events, causing 43%, 67% and 75% of the events at the arctic, subarctic and midlatitude stations, respectively. For the Arctic, Russian transport efficiencies tended to be the strongest, as expected, while European and Asian efficiencies were lower and higher, respectively, than those found in the literature. This disagreement is likely produced by mercury's long lifetime relative to that of other pollutants. The accepted springtime preference for the trans-Pacific transport of Asian pollution was evident only in the midlatitude group of stations, being masked in the arctic and subarctic groups by the occurrence of atmospheric mercury depletion events. Some neighbouring arctic stations recorded dissimilar numbers of LRT events; despite their proximity, the behaviour of mercury at these stations was governed by different dynamics and transport pathways. The column burden of GEM in the lowest 5 km of the Northern Hemisphere was largest in summer from Asia, North America and Russia, but in winter from Europe. In the vertical, transport of mercury from all source regions occurred principally in the mid-troposphere.

UV‐B cloud optical properties for Canada

AbstractCloud optical properties play a highly significant role in the amount of UV‐B irradiance reaching the ground. Broadband values of UV‐B cloud optical properties are calculated for nine Canadian stations from 26 years of data. Cloud single scattering albedo ωc and asymmetry factor gc are computed from Mie theory for two values of equivalent droplet radius; 7 µm for arctic stations and 10 µm for midlatitude and subarctic stations. Overcast cloud optical depths τc are estimated iteratively for a model cloud layer located between 2 and 3 km above the surface from hourly integrated spectral Brewer spectrophotometer measurements for snow‐free cases using either the discrete ordinate radiative transfer (DISORT) or the delta‐Eddington algorithms. Median τc values calculated by both algorithms compare to within 3%. Median values are smaller for arctic stations (9–18) and between 26 and 38 for the rest. Both mean and median values are negatively correlated with latitude. Aerosol effect on τc varies between 9 and 18% on average. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Detection of trends in hydrological extremes for Canadian watersheds

AbstractThe potential impacts of climate change can alter the risk to critical infrastructure resulting from changes to the frequency and magnitude of extreme events. As well, the natural environment is affected by the hydrologic regime, and changes in high flows or low flows can have negative impacts on ecosystems. This article examines the detection of trends in extreme hydrological events, both high and low flow events, for streamflow gauging stations in Canada. The trend analysis involves the application of the Mann–Kendall non‐parametric test. A bootstrap resampling process has been used to determine the field significance of the trend results. A total of 68 gauging stations having a nominal record length of at least 50 years are analysed for two analysis periods of 50 and 40 years. The database of Canadian rivers investigated represents a diversity of hydrological conditions encompassing different extreme flow generating processes and reflects a national scale analysis of trends. The results reveal more trends than would be expected to occur by chance for most of the measures of extreme flow characteristics. Annual and spring maximum flows show decreasing trends in flow magnitude and decreasing trends in event timing (earlier events). Low flow magnitudes exhibit both decreasing and increasing trends. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Homogenization and Trend Analysis of Canadian Near-Surface Wind Speeds

Abstract Near-surface wind speeds recorded at 117 stations in Canada for the period from 1953 to 2006 were analyzed in this study. First, metadata and a logarithmic wind profile were used to adjust hourly wind speeds measured at nonstandard anemometer heights to the standard 10-m level. Monthly mean near-surface wind speed series were then derived and subjected to a statistical homogeneity test, with homogeneous monthly mean geostrophic wind (geowind) speed series being used as reference series. Homogenized monthly mean near-surface wind speed series were obtained by adjusting all significant mean shifts, using the results of the statistical test and modeling along with all available metadata, and were used to assess the long-term trends. This study shows that station relocation and anemometer height change are the main causes for discontinuities in the near-surface wind speed series, followed by instrumentation problems or changes, and observing environment changes. It also shows that the effects of artificial mean shifts on the results of trend analysis are remarkable, and that the homogenized near-surface wind speed series show good spatial consistency of trends, which are in agreement with long-term trends estimated from independent datasets, such as surface winds in the United States and cyclone activity indices and ocean wave heights in the region. These indicate success in the homogenization of the wind data. During the period analyzed, the homogenized near-surface wind speed series show significant decreases throughout western Canada and most parts of southern Canada (except the Maritimes) in all seasons, with significant increases in the central Canadian Arctic in all seasons and in the Maritimes in spring and autumn.

Bayesian functional {ANOVA} modeling using Gaussian process prior distributions

Functional analysis of variance (ANOVA) models partition a func- tional response according to the main efiects and interactions of various factors. This article develops a general framework for functional ANOVA modeling from a Bayesian viewpoint, assigning Gaussian process prior distributions to each batch of functional efiects. We discuss the choices to be made in specifying such a model, advocating the treatment of levels within a given factor as dependent but exchangeable quantities, and we suggest weakly informative prior distributions for higher level parameters that may be appropriate in many situations. We discuss computationally e-cient strategies for posterior sampling using Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms, and we emphasize useful graphical summaries based on the posterior distribution of model-based analogues of traditional ANOVA decom- positions of variance. We illustrate this process of model speciflcation, posterior sampling, and graphical posterior summaries in two examples. The flrst consid- ers the efiect of geographic region on the temperature proflles at weather stations in Canada. The second example examines sources of variability in the output of regional climate models from a designed experiment.

Atmospheric monitoring of organic pollutants in the Arctic under the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP): 1993–2006

Continuous and comparable atmospheric monitoring programs to study the transport and occurrence of persistent organic pollutants (POPs) in the atmosphere of remote regions is essential to better understand the global movement of these chemicals and to evaluate the effectiveness of international control measures. Key results from four main Arctic research stations, Alert (Canada), Pallas (Finland), Storhofdi (Iceland) and Zeppelin (Svalbard/Norway), where long-term monitoring have been carried out since the early 1990s, are summarized. We have also included a discussion of main results from various Arctic satellite stations in Canada, Russia, US (Alaska) and Greenland which have been operational for shorter time periods. Using the Digital Filtration temporal trend development technique, it was found that while some POPs showed more or less consistent declines during the 1990s, this reduction is less apparent in recent years at some sites. In contrast, polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) were still found to be increasing by 2005 at Alert with doubling times of 3.5 years in the case of deca-BDE. Levels and patterns of most POPs in Arctic air are also showing spatial variability, which is typically explained by differences in proximity to suspected key source regions and long-range atmospheric transport potentials. Furthermore, increase in worldwide usage of certain pesticides, e.g. chlorothalonil and quintozene, which are contaminated with hexachlorobenzene (HCB), may result in an increase in Arctic air concentration of HCB. The results combined also indicate that both temporal and spatial patterns of POPs in Arctic air may be affected by various processes driven by climate change, such as reduced ice cover, increasing seawater temperatures and an increase in biomass burning in boreal regions as exemplified by the data from the Zeppelin and Alert stations. Further research and continued air monitoring are needed to better understand these processes and its future impact on the Arctic environment.

Bias in Minimum Temperature Introduced by a Redefinition of the Climatological Day at the Canadian Synoptic Stations

Abstract On 1 July 1961, the climatological day was redefined to end at 0600 UTC (coordinated universal time) at all synoptic (airport) stations in Canada. Prior to that, the climatological day ended at 1200 UTC for maximum temperature and 0000 UTC for minimum temperature. This study shows that the redefinition of the climatological day in 1961 has created a cold bias in the annual and seasonal means of daily minimum temperatures across the country while the means of daily maximum temperatures were not affected. Hourly temperatures taken at 121 stations for 1953–2007 are used to determine the magnitude of the bias and its spatial variation. It was found that the bias is more pronounced in the eastern regions; its annual mean varies from −0.2° in the west to −0.8°C in the east. Not all days are affected by this change in observing time, and the annual percentage of affected days ranges from 15% for locations in the west to 38% for locations in the east. An approach based on hourly values is proposed for adjusting the affected daily minimum temperatures over 1961–2007. The adjustment on any individual day varies from 0.5° to 12.5°C. The impact of the adjustment is assessed by examining the trends in the annual mean of the daily minimum temperatures for 1950–2007. Overall, with the adjustment, the trends are becoming either more positive or are reversing from negative to positive, and they have changed by as much as 1°C in numerous locations in the eastern regions.

On the influence of the 11-year cycle of solar activity on quasi-biennial variations in ozone and temperature in the Canadian sector of the arctic

An analysis of the high-latitude ozone balloon sounding data derived from Canadian stations shows that, in the maximum of the 11-year cycle of solar activity (SA), the ozone content in the lower stratosphere is higher than in the SA minimum and, in the SA maximum, the lower stratosphere is warmer and the troposphere is colder than in the SA minimum. The ozone and temperature responses to the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the opposite phases of the 11-year cycle of SA show substantial differences: in the SA maximum, the QBO effects in the ozone and temperature cover a wider range of heights, the maxima of the effects manifest themselves at 5–10 km higher, and their amplitudes exceed the amplitudes of the effects in the SA minimum. The results indicate that the QBO is one of the “conductors” of the influence of the 11-year SA cycle in the Canadian sector of the Arctic.

Contaminating a Lake to Save Others

ECOLOGYOver the past 9 years, some 15 principal investigators from eight institutions have joined forces at a remote experimental station in Canada ([see main text][1]) to tease apart how mercury in air pollution cycles through the environment. [1]: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/322/5906/1316

Evaluating carbon dynamics and microbial activity in arctic soils under warmer temperatures

A large portion of carbon (C) is stored in the world’s soils, including those of peatlands, wetlands and permafrost. However, there is disagreement regarding the effects of climate change on the rate of organic matter decomposition in permafrost soils of the arctic. In this study it was hypothesized that soil exposed to a higher ambient temperature would have a greater flux of CO2 as well as a change in the metabolic diversity of culturable soil microorganisms. To evaluate this hypothesis we determined soil C dynamics, soil microbial respiration and activity, and 13C and 15N fractionation in laboratory incubations (at 14 and 21°C) for an organic-rich soil (Mesic Organic Cryosol) and a mineral soil (Turbic Cryosol) collected at the Daring Lake Research Station in Canada’s Northwest Territories. Soil organic C (SOC) and nitrogen (N) stocks (g m-2) and concentration (%) were significantly different (P < 0.05) between soil horizons for both soil types. Stable isotope analysis showed a significant enrichment in δ13C and δ15N with depth and a depletion in δ13C and δ15N with increasing SOC and N concentration. In laboratory incubations, microbial respiration showed three distinct phases of decomposition: a phase with a rapidly increasing rate of respiration (phase 1), a phase in which respiration reached a peak midway through the incubation (phase 2), and a phase in the latter part of the incubation in which respiration stabilized at a lower flux than that of the first phase (phase 3). Fluxes of CO2 were significantly greater at 21°C than at 14°C. The δ13C of the evolved CO2 became significantly enriched with time with the greatest enrichment occurring in phase 2 of the incubation. Soil microbial activity, as measured using Biolog EcoplatesTM, showed a significantly greater average well color development, richness, and Shannon index at 21°C; again the greatest change occurred in phase 2 of the incubation. Principal component analysis (PCA) of the Biolog data also showed a change in the distinct clustering of the soil microbial activity, showing that C sources from the soil were metabolized differently with time at 21 than at 14°C, and between soil horizons. Our results show that Canadian arctic soils contain large stores of C, which readily decompose, and that substantial increases in CO2 emissions and changes in the metabolic diversity of culturable soil microorganisms may occur when ambient temperatures increase from 14 to 21°C. Key words: CO2 flux, C fractionation, global warming, soil organic C and N, stable isotopes