In chunk-based interest-driven content-centric networks, each interest packet forwarded upstream by a node on a face implies the return of at most one data chunk to the node from that face shortly after. As a consequence, the congestion of the downstream transmission buffer in the data path of the node is highly correlated with the occupancy of the pending interest table (PIT). Therefore a systematic study and analysis of the PIT occupancy are of paramount importance to understanding congestion in CCN. In particular, in this paper, we propose an analytical model to estimate the PIT occupancy distribution via a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model that considers the effects of interest blocking, interest timeout and retries. To validate our model and assumptions, we invoke simulation with realistic traffic streams and show how the filtering effects of caching and interest aggregation make the Markov assumption reasonable in the nodes that are the most susceptible to experiencing congestion. To solve the model numerically, we use two alternative approximations, state space truncation and state aggregation, and then give some numerical results to demonstrate the accuracy of our approximations.