Labor Market Conditions Research Articles

WHEN CLIMATE CHANGES, SO DOES VIOLENCE: EXAMINING THE LINK BETWEEN WEATHER AND CRIME IN PERNAMBUCO-NORTHEAST, BRAZIL

This paper examines the impact of weather shocks on crime in Pernambuco-Northeast, one of the states most affected by climate disasters in the Brazilian semi-arid region. We show that precipitation and temperature shocks in the form of droughts have a significant impact on the increase of rates of intentional lethal violent crimes (ILVC), property crimes (PC), and homicides. The effects of precipitation fluctuations in the form of droughts persist beyond the agricultural season and in the medium-term, and vary according to municipal and criminological characteristics. Moreover, adverse weather conditions (e.g., droughts) have a greater impact on income-related crimes. Consistent with this evidence, we find that the persistent response of crime rates to adverse weather conditions is driven by negative shocks to rural income, followed by a deterioration in overall economic activity, urban labor market conditions, and the government’s ability to provide public goods. The patterns we identify align with a relationship between weather and crime explained by reduced opportunity costs associated with criminal activity. Regarding policy recommendations, our findings suggest that local governments should prioritize investments in water infrastructure, agricultural irrigation, expansion of water coverage, and conservation of forested areas. These measures can contribute to climate adaptation and mitigate the economic impact of weather shocks on crime.

Increasing the Retirement Age: Policy Effects and Underlying Mechanisms

We study the effects of increasing the statutory retirement age (SRA) in the Netherlands, using regression discontinuity design and administrative data on the universe of the population. We find clear and large employment effects of the reform. A simple model in which individuals stay longer in their pre-SRA labor market state predicts the treatment effects well. The employment level before the SRA and the retirement hazard at the SRA are the key determinants of the effects of the policy change. Exploring potential explanations for the high hazard rate observed in the Netherlands, our results point to an important role for employers’ effects. (JEL H55, J14, J26, J32)

Income insecurity and mental health in pandemic times

This paper contributes to the literature on the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on mental health by providing novel evidence of its interaction with labor market conditions and the long-term persistence of these effects. We run four waves of a large-scale representative survey in Spain between April 2020 and April 2022, and benchmark our data against a decade of pre-pandemic information. We document an increase in the share of individuals reporting depressive feelings from 16% prior to the pandemic to 46% in April 2020. We show that this effect is more pronounced for women, younger individuals and those with unstable incomes. We apply machine learning techniques, mediation analysis and event studies to document the role of the labor market as an important driver of these effects. Our results are crucial for the design of targeted policies that proof useful in overcoming the long lasting consequences of the pandemic.

The Role of Shared Resilience in Building Employment Pathways with People with a Disability

For workers living with a disability, pathways to sustainable employment in the open labour market are inhibited by barriers operating at different structural and societal levels. The culture of Australia’s government employment services has applied a ‘work-first’ approach that emphasises finding people employment rather than supporting the acquisition of skills and education. The net effect of this approach is the preferencing of short-term employment solutions, with a focus on individual behaviour or so-called resilience and an emphasis on personal responsibility instead of addressing structural issues. In this paper, we explore how people with disability can be supported in finding employment through a shared resilience approach offered by a Work Integration Social Enterprise (WISE). We suggest that WISEs can provide the conditions for shared resilience by developing and sustaining networks needed to generate hybrid pathways to work and by role modelling inclusive work conditions in the open labour market.

Seasonality in U.S. disability applications, labor market, and the pandemic echoes

This paper examines the seasonality in the U.S. Social Security disability applications, and shows that the monthly disability applications exhibit a double-peak seasonal pattern which lags a similar seasonal pattern in unemployment and unemployment insurance initial claims by one to two months. The broad seasonal patterns in disability applications are remarkably similar across states but with significant heterogeneity in amplitudes, which seems to be associated with climatic factors. We utilize this inter-state heterogeneity to show that the seasonal patterns in disability applications and labor market conditions are correlated even after controlling for climatic effects. We also show that the seasonally in disability applications generated by the automatic settings of the widely used seasonal adjustment program X13 ARIMA-SEATS are distorted during the COVID-19 pandemic and the pattern of the distortion is similar to that in employment data.

Psychosocial conditions during school-age as determinants of long-term labour market attachment: a study of the Northern Swedish Cohort from the 1980s to the 2020s

BackgroundThis study, conducted on a Swedish population cohort, explores how internalized (depressive and functional somatic) and externalized (smoking, drinking, truancy, vandalism, delinquency) mental health symptoms, as well as close interpersonal relations (family climate and school connectedness) reported during adolescence, influence the work-life course up to late midlife.MethodsWe examined repeated measurements of labour market status from age 16 to 56 using sequence analyses. We identified five different labour market attachment (LMA16-56) trajectories, namely ‘strong,’ ‘early intermediate,’ ‘early weak,’ ‘late weak,’ and ‘constantly weak.’ Multinomial logistic regressions were employed to relate each of the nine determinants to the identified trajectories.ResultsWhen compared to the risk of ‘strong’ LMA16-56, adversity in all conditions, except for vandalism, entailed a higher risk of the ‘constantly weak’ trajectory. Moreover, all conditions, except for functional somatic symptoms, entailed a higher risk of the ‘late weak’ LMA16-56. The risk of the ‘early intermediate’ LMA16-56 was non-significant across all the conditions.ConclusionsThis study contributes to existing knowledge through its novel exploration of labour market attachment and the revelation of the significance of proximal interpersonal relationships in attachment outcomes. Additionally, the study reaffirms the importance of externalizing behaviour, while suggesting that internalized symptoms in adolescence might have a less influential, though not negligible, role. These results underscore the importance of addressing acting out behaviour and nurturing human relationships during compulsory basic education, when the entire age group is still within reach. This approach aims not only to reduce frictions in the school-to-work transition but also to prevent midlife labour market attachment problems that may arise with delayed intervention.

Analysis of the Effect of Artificial Intelligence on the Labor Market in the United States

Artificial intelligence(AI) is facing rapid development, which presents both opportunities and risks. The Unities States, the worlds largest economy and a leading technological power, has witnessed significant advancements in AI. As an integral part of automated production, AI drives economic productivity, but it alters the demands and structure of the United States labor market. Increasing joblessness and a decrease in the number of people actively participating in the workforce imply that AI holds the capability to substitute human employment, thereby highlighting the importance of individuals adapting to changing labor demands. Research indicates that individuals with lower educational attainment and limited cultural proficiency face a greater likelihood of being replaced by artificial intelligence (AI). However, the evolving labor market demands a greater emphasis on AI-related skills. The potential of AI to foster the development of the United States labor market is evident, as it holds the capacity to drive further innovation and growth in the American economy. This research paper takes IBM, who officially announced the use of AI as a replacement for human labor, as a case study to examine the influence of AI on the labor market in the United States., exploring the opportunities and risks brought by AI development.

Occupational choice, satisfaction and success of PhD graduates in East Asia and the West: A systematic review

AbstractThe globally expanding doctoral education and the diminishing availability of academic job opportunities have prompted an increasing proportion of PhD graduates to seek employment beyond academia, drawing a growing scholarly interest. However, the existing literature on doctoral career pathways tends to be fragmented and dispersed, given the idiosyncratic individual and educational characteristics of doctorates grappling with the complex structural factors. To depict a comprehensive picture of the diversifying employment trajectories of doctorates across various geographical, disciplinary and sectoral contexts, this study conducts a systematic review, scouring 831 pertinent journal articles from the Web of Science. Following a set of inclusion criteria, 31 papers were ultimately selected to identify the key factors shaping employment trajectories of PhD graduates at structural (national supply and demand), institutional (employers' perceptions) and individual (doctorates' characteristics) levels. Drawing on the boundaryless and value‐based career theories, the authors develop a four‐dimension analytical framework, within which the findings of the 31 papers in East Asian and Western contexts are analysed. Overall, stakeholders in Western systems generally recognise the trend of PhD graduates securing non‐academic employment, whereas East Asian nations appear less receptive to this agenda. Meanwhile, due to their strong emphasis on research skills utilisation and employment stability, PhD graduates in certain economies find it challenging to pursue satisfying and successful careers, warranting increased attention. Building on the findings, we propose a four‐quadrat model in an effort to provide a tool for evaluating the capacity to absorb doctoral workforces of specific systems by categorising the doctoral professions. Highlighting shared patterns observed across various higher education systems and distinct trends prevalent in specific economies, this paper addresses key topics in doctoral education and doctorate employment literature such as labour market conditions, employment outcomes, job satisfaction, skills (mis)matches and sustainable careers.

Labor market transitions in Egypt post-Arab Spring

ABSTRACT This paper examines Egypt’s labor market transition dynamics post-Arab Spring based on the two most recent rounds of the Egypt Labor Market Panel Survey conducted in 2012 and 2018. In addition to providing disaggregated level analysis by examining labor market transitions by gender, education, and age groups, our paper provides a cross-country perspective by comparing Egypt’s labor market transitions with Jordan’s. Regression analyses focusing on transitions to and from the dominant absorbing labor market states in Egypt – public sector employment for both genders, non-participation for women, and the informal sector for men – show that having a post-secondary education is associated with a lower probability of remaining out of the labor force (OLF) for women who were already OLF at baseline, while being married at baseline is found to be a significant predictor for women to stay out of the labor force if they were already so. As for men, the better educated are found to be more likely to secure formal employment, be it in the public or in the private sector, and also more likely to keep their public formal jobs once they secure them.

Economic Determinants of Attitudes Toward Migration: Firm-level Evidence from Europe

AbstractWhat are the distributional consequences of migration, and how do they affect attitudes toward migration? In this paper we leverage a natural experiment generated by the ousting of former Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi, which created an unprecedented influx of economic migrants from African countries to Europe. This surge of low-skilled labor benefited low-productivity firms by lowering their production costs and expanding their labor supply. Employing a triple difference-in-differences design, we document that attitudes toward migration became more positive in Western European regions with large shares of migrants and low-productivity firms. Evidence from Sweden, which provides finely grained geographical data, confirms these findings. We then test the economic microfoundations of this attitudinal shift. We show that the surge in the supply of low-skilled labor increased the profitability of low-productivity firms more in areas that experienced larger migration flows. We find no evidence that migration worsened natives’ labor market conditions.

РЕЛОКАЦИЯ ПЕРСОНАЛА: НОВЫЕ ВЫЗОВЫ И ВОЗМОЖНОСТИ

Solving the problems of industrial production growth, business scaling, and promotion of new technologies to the regions is impossible without staffing enterprises with qualified workers. At the same time, in the conditions of the modern labor market, it is staffing that becomes one of the main risks in achieving the assigned tasks. One of the ways for enterprises in adapting to the conditions of the modern labor market is personnel relocation. That is why in recent years the issue of the labor mobility and personnel relocation has become the subject of both theoretical and empirical research. Drawing on the analysis and synthesis of statistical data, research results of specialized research institutes, consulting companies, expert opinions, and the experience of Russian companies in the research topic, the authors formulated the concept and characterized the content of the term “personnel relocation”, identified the main factors influencing employee decision-making about relocationю They also shown the main challenges for employers when developing personnel relocation programs and the ways to solve them are shown.

ИЗМЕНЕНИЕ ПАРАДИГМЫ ПРОФЕССИОНАЛЬНОЙ СОЦИАЛИЗАЦИИ МОЛОДЕЖИ В КОНТЕКСТЕ АДАПТАЦИИ К УСЛОВИЯМ РЫНКА ТРУДА

The article examines the professional socialization process of the individual and the adaptation of young people to the impact of conjuncture-forming factors of the labor market from the perspective of the subject-subject approach. The object of the study is young people looking for a job after graduating from a university or recently involved in professional activity. The subject of the study is professional socialization and adaptation of young people to the conditions of the modern labor market. The purpose of the paper is to identify the factors that determine the choice of profession, as well as value orientations for the future professional activity of young people, with the help of which the author attempted to justify a change in the paradigm of professional socialization. The main research methods are analysis and synthesis, systematization and modeling, surveys, questionnaires, and personal individual interviews. Based on the results and conclusions of the study, the author attempted to substantiate the need to shift the vector of narrow professional education towards algorithmic variable-differentiated university education. The hypothesis was confirmed that the development of personal qualities implies the possibility of setting priorities in the ratio of Hard skills and Soft skills by each person independently, depending on value orientations, goals of professional socialization, and specific conditions of the labor market.

One Size Does Not Fit All: Global Perspectives on IT Worker Turnover

Although the IT workforce has become increasingly global, much of the research on issues related to IT workers published in leading academic journals is conducted in the U.S. However, the majority of the world does not share the same context as the U.S. Despite that, comparative studies exploring country differences rarely demonstrate how and why these differences occur on a global scale. By relying on a dataset based on a survey of more than 10 000 IT workers in 37 countries, we employed the decision tree technique to build an accurate model of IT job turnover in the U.S. We then applied this model to 36 countries to test whether it is more accurate in countries that are similar to the U.S. in terms of their geographical proximity to the U.S. and the proximity of their cultural, political, and labor market contexts. The findings demonstrate that while the U.S. model of IT job turnover is not necessarily less accurate for countries that are geographically farther from the U.S., it is less applicable in the countries with cultural, political, and labor market conditions different from those of the U.S. Thus, global IT managers are recommended to interpret the U.S.-centric literature with caution.

РИНОК ПРАЦІ: ВИКЛИКИ ЦИФРОВОЇ ЕКОНОМІКИ ТА ВОЄННОГО ЧАСУ

The article discusses topical issues related to the impact of the digital economy and wartime on the labor market. It is determined that the consequences of the war are primarily reflected in job losses, the difference between labor supply and demand, deepening imbalances in qualifications and the difficulty of reproducing the labor force. It is analyzed that, in addition to traditional methods of labor reproduction, digital reproduction is effective in this context, providing technological industrial renewal and reforming the educational system. Although digital transformation poses challenges, such as the displacement of certain social groups from the labor market and the growing digital divide, it has been shown to increase productivity, increase wages, and reduce labor needs. The study concluded that amid the war in Ukraine, there is a problem of access to the digital economy, technological modernization of industry, legislative reform, and intensification of entrepreneurship. An important area for the implementation of these measures is the development of a program of state incentives, reform of the educational system and social unemployment insurance. Digital innovations are affecting the skills requirements for employees and for successful employment in general, which can lead to social disputes and significantly widen the gap between different social groups. The consequences of the war, including active hostilities and shelling, are leading to increased imbalances in the labor market and a reduction in the number of jobs. The author concludes that in order to minimize the risks associated with digital transformation, it is critical to use strategic solutions, including the creation of a government incentive program to increase jobs, legislative regulation of employee rights protection and restrictions on automation, and the creation of an education system to meet the requirements of digital labor market reforms. In addition, it is necessary to ensure effective social unemployment insurance measures to ensure stability and protection of citizens in the new labor market conditions.

КОНЦЕПТУАЛЬНІ ЗАСАДИ РОЗВИТКУ СОЦІАЛЬНО-ТРУДОВИХ ВІДНОСИН

The article is devoted to one of the key factors ensuring economic development – social and labour relations, which are constantly changing in nature and content. The purpose of the study is to clarify and systematize, in accordance with the current socio-economic conditions, the conceptual framework for the development of social and labour relations. In particular, the author clarifies that the participants of social and labour relations should include not only employers, employees and their associations, and the State, but also representatives of the expert scientific community, NGOs and foundations, which creates a more inclusive space for dialogue. The key to achieving effective social and labour relations is social responsibility. At the same time, each of the subjects has the rights defined by the laws of Ukraine, and at the same time is responsible not only under the laws, but also has social responsibility to others. The subject matter of social and labour relations includes, in addition to the generally recognised ones, the issues of organising work on platforms (crowdsourcing), well-being in a broad sense, motivation and security, including at the regional and national levels. It is established that the driving forces for the development of social and labour relations may be the interests of the parties to the relations, as well as external aspects affecting them (e.g., changes in legislation, labour market conditions, the level of social guarantees, competition, etc.). It is proposed to consider the development of social and labour relations as a process of changing the rules and nature of interaction, accompanied by differentiation of participants by the level of responsibility, transformation of approaches to ensuring labour safety, the working environment of an organisation and the labour market. Taking into account its structure, peculiarities of regulation and the nature of relations, the author proposes to distinguish the following models: partnership, corporatism, state monopoly, traditional, inclusive, paternalistic, security, risk, administrative and legal, and contractual. Each of the models does not exist in its pure form, but has features of other models, which is determined by the specifics of the country's economy and politics. All models are evolving and are not sustainable in the long term. The development of social and labour relations should be understood as a process of changing the rules and nature of interaction, accompanied by differentiation of participants by the level of responsibility, transformation of approaches to ensuring labour safety, the working environment of the organisation and the labour market. Accordingly, over time, under the influence of various technical, economic, socio-political and other aspects, the model of social and labour relations is transformed, usually towards the opposite model or gaining more security features. For progressive societies, it is the security model of social and labour relations that is desirable.

Анализ трендов и потребностей современного рынка труда для на примере ит-отрасли: пути преодоления карьерного разрыва

The article analyzes the state of the Russian labor market in 2023, and also examines the main trends, including the shortage of personnel, the need to implement measures to retain highly qualified specialists in companies, the growth of the average age ofthe applicant, the demand for knowledge of Asian languages and skills to work with modern digital solutions, and others. Based on a comparison of 2022 and 2023, an increase in vacancies on popular job search platforms was re-vealed, and the areas most in need of personnel were identified. Using the example of the IT-industry, the required soft and hard skills for specialists in the most popular positions are analyzed. As a result of the work carried out, recommendations were formulated for universities aimed at improving the career preparation of students. Salaries by industry are considered, where the sharpest jump in the IT sector can be identified, starting in 2021. The paper analyzes the most popular areas of university educational programs, and one of the most popular areas was chosen to analyze the competencies formed in them: “Information Technology” at Lomonosov Moscow State University. As a result of the work carried out, recommendations were formulated for universities aimed at improving the career preparation of students The research's novelty rests in its comprehensive approach to the study of the gap between the requirements for university graduates and the requirements of the labor re-sources market, in order to develop practical recommendations for overcoming it. The authors em-phasize the need for further research into the imbalance in higher education and the labor resources market, including in the IT sector, which holds strategic importance in fostering an innovative econ-omy and the realization of goals for Russia’s technological sovereignty.

Theoretical and empirical analysis of human capital in the context of the Polish labor market condition

Theoretical and empirical analysis of human capital in the context of the Polish labor market condition

Assessing Labor Market Conditions in Canada with Public-Use Microdata

Assessing Labor Market Conditions in Canada with Public-Use Microdata

Employment of accounting professionals: A descriptive analysis for Chile

Purpose: The objective is to descriptively analyze the employment of accounting professionals from a university in Chile, contrasting their situation with the national average.Methodology: The analysis employed frequency distribution tables, contingency tables, Chi-square tests, and correlation coefficients. Data were obtained from a survey administered to 184 accounting graduates between 2012 and 2021 from a university in Chile.Results: The findings indicate that employability is higher among graduates from the studied university; however, their gross income is lower compared to the national average.Implications: The results are useful for improving aspects of the curriculum to better align with current and future labor market trends for accounting professionals. Additionally, it calls for an exploration of the determinants that explain the employment situation, with the aim of identifying potential areas for professional development.Value: Although there are existing studies on the employability of accounting professionals, this work contrasts a local reality with the national average to identify differences that can be translated into curricular improvements and public employment policy to balance labor market conditions.

Analysis of Retrenchment Trends in Singapore

Between 2008 and 2023, there had been a fairly stable level of retrenchment of an average of 7.0 retrenched resident employees per 1,000 resident employees in Singapore. During times of crisis or rough economic conditions, the incidence rate rose, as seen in 2008–2009 during the Global Financial Crisis and 2020 during the onset of the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic with higher rates of 13.8 and 11.1 retrenched resident employees per 1,000 resident employees, respectively. Delving deeper into retrenchment figures in 2023, an upward trend was observed from a low of 3.4 per 1,000 resident employees in 2022, suggesting stronger economic headwinds and indicating softening labour market conditions. Examining retrenched employees who partnered with the National Trades Union Congress’ Employment and Employability Institute (NTUC’s e2i), we found retrenched employees took longer to be placed in 2023 compared to 2022. However, the situation was not entirely bleak as the proportion of placed retrenched employees with similar or better pay remained largely the same in 2022 and 2023. Evidence suggests that retrenched employees who take the first job that comes along and employees who lack relevant skills and as a result take more than 5 months to find their next job tend to receive lower wages. As such, the Singapore government’s suggested transition support scheme is timely, especially when taken in the context of other efforts by the Labour Movement, including engaging companies to transform to reduce eventual retrenchment numbers and strengthening the NTUC’s e2i’s career coaching capabilities to help employees better chart their career pathways.